Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

Association of Laboratory Methods, Colonization Density, and Age With Detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae in the Nasopharynx.

Culture-based methods for detecting Streptococcus pneumoniae in the nasopharynx lack sensitivity. In this study, we aimed to compare the performance of culture and molecular methods in detecting pneumococcus in the nasopharynx of healthy individuals and to evaluate the associations of age and colonization density with detection. Between 2010 and 2012, nasopharyngeal specimens were collected from healthy individuals living on Navajo Nation and White Mountain Apache Tribal lands in the United States. Pneumococci were detected by means of broth-enrichment culture and autolysin-encoding gene (lytA) quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Among 982 persons evaluated (median age, 18.7 years; 47% male), 35% were culture-positive and an additional 27% were qPCR-positive. Agreement between culture and qPCR was 70.9% but was higher among children (age <18 years) (75.9%-84.4%) than among adults (age ≥18 years) (61.0%-74.6%). The mean density of colonization was lower for culture-negative samples (3.14 log10 copies/mL) than for culture-positive samples (5.02 log10 copies/mL), overall and for all age groups. The percent culture-positive increased with increasing density, exceeding 80% at densities of ≥10,000 copies/mL. Mean colonization density decreased with age. Use of qPCR improved detection of pneumococcus in the nasopharynx of healthy individuals. This finding was most notable among adults, probably because of improved detection of low-density colonization.

Relating Pneumococcal Carriage Among Children to Disease Rates Among Adults Before and After the Introduction of Conjugate Vaccines.

The use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in children has a strong indirect effect on disease rates in adults. When children are vaccinated with PCVs, other serotypes that are not targeted by the vaccine can increase in frequency (serotype replacement) and reduce the direct and indirect benefits of the vaccine. To understand and predict the likely impacts of serotype replacement, it is important to know how patterns in the transmission of serotypes among children relate to disease rates in adults. We used data on pneumococcal carriage and disease from Navajo Nation children and adults collected before and after the routine use of PCVs (1998-2012). Using regression models within a Bayesian framework, we found that serotype-specific carriage and invasiveness (disease incidence divided by carriage prevalence) had similar patterns in children and adults. Moreover, carriage in children, invasiveness in children, and a serotype-specific random intercept (which captured additional variation associated with the serotypes) could predict the incidence serotype-specific pneumococcal disease in adults 18-39 years of age and those 40 years of age or older in the era of routine use of PCVs. These models could help us predict the effects of future pneumococcal vaccine use in children on disease rates in adults, and the modeling approach developed here could be used to test these findings in other settings.

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 population structure in the era of conjugate vaccines, 2001-2018.

Background. Despite use of highly effective conjugate vaccines, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and disproportionately affects Indigenous populations. Although included in the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), which was introduced in 2010, serotype 3 continues to cause disease among Indigenous communities in the Southwest USA. In the Navajo Nation, serotype 3 IPD incidence increased among adults (3.8/100 000 in 2001-2009 and 6.2/100 000 in 2011-2019); in children the disease persisted although the rates dropped from 5.8/100 000 to 2.3/100 000.Methods. We analysed the genomic epidemiology of serotype 3 isolates collected from 129 adults and 63 children with pneumococcal carriage (n=61) or IPD (n=131) from 2001 to 2018 of the Navajo Nation. Using whole-genome sequencing data, we determined clade membership and assessed changes in serotype 3 population structure over time.Results. The serotype 3 population structure was characterized by three dominant subpopulations: clade II (n=90, 46.9 %) and clade Iα (n=59, 30.7 %), which fall into Clonal Complex (CC) 180, and a non-CC180 clade (n=43, 22.4 %). The proportion of clade II-associated IPD cases increased significantly from 2001 to 2010 to 2011-2018 among adults (23.1-71.8 %; P<0.001) but not in children (27.3-33.3 %; P=0.84). Over the same period, the proportion of clade II-associated carriage increased; this was statistically significant among children (23.3-52.6 %; P=0.04) but not adults (0-50.0 %, P=0.08).Conclusions. In this setting with persistent serotype 3 IPD and carriage, clade II has increased since 2010. Genomic changes may be contributing to the observed trends in serotype 3 carriage and disease over time.

Carriage prevalence and genomic epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus among Native American children and adults in the Southwestern USA.

Native American individuals in the Southwestern USA experience a higher burden of invasive Staphylococcus aureus disease than the general population. However, little is known about S. aureus carriage in these communities. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the carriage prevalence, risk factors and genomic epidemiology of S. aureus among Native American children (<5 years, n=121) and adults (≥18 years, n=167) in the Southwestern USA. Short- and long-read sequencing data were generated using Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technology platforms to produce high-quality hybrid assemblies, and antibiotic-resistance, virulence and pangenome analyses were performed. S. aureus carriage prevalence was 20.7 % among children, 30.2 % among adults 18-64 years and 16.7 % among adults ≥65 years. Risk factors among adults included recent surgery, prior S. aureus infection among household members, and recent use of gyms or locker rooms by household members. No risk factors were identified among children. The bacterial population structure was dominated by clonal complex 1 (CC1) (21.1 %), CC5 (22.2 %) and CC8 (22.2 %). Isolates from children and adults were intermixed throughout the phylogeny. While the S. aureus population was diverse, the carriage prevalence was comparable to that in the general USA population. Genomic and risk-factor data suggest household, community and healthcare transmission are important components of the local epidemiology.

High Burden of Staphylococcus aureus Among Native American Individuals on the White Mountain Apache Tribal Lands.

BACKGROUND: This study was done to determine the burden of invasive Staphylococcus aureus on the White Mountain Apache Tribal lands. METHODS: Active population and laboratory-based surveillance for invasive S aureus infections was conducted from May 2016 to April 2018. A case was defined as a Native American individual living on or around the White Mountain Apache Tribal lands with S aureus isolated from a normally sterile body site. RESULTS: Fifty-three cases were identified. Most cases were adults (90.6%) and had ≥1 underlying medical condition (86.8%), the most common of which were diabetes (49.1%) and obesity (41.5%). A total of 26.4% cases were categorized as community acquired. Most infections were methicillin-resistant (75.5%). A total of 7.5% of cases required amputation, and 7.7% of cases died within 30 days of initial culture. The incidence of invasive S aureus was 156.3 per 100 000 persons. The age-adjusted incidence of invasive methicillin-resistant S aureus was 138.2 per 100 000 persons. CONCLUSIONS: This community has a disproportionately high burden of invasive methicillin-resistant S aureus compared with the general US population. Interventions are urgently needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with these infections.

The burden of Staphylococcus aureus among Native Americans on the Navajo Nation.

INTRODUCTION: Native Americans in the southwestern United States have a higher risk for many infectious diseases and may be at higher risk for Staphylococcus aureus due to the high prevalence of risk factors for S. aureus. Recent data on invasive S. aureus infections among Native Americans are limited. METHODS: Active population- and laboratory-based surveillance was conducted in 2016-2017 on the Navajo Nation to document the rate of invasive S. aureus. A case of invasive S.aureus infection was defined as a Native American individual with S. aureus isolated from a normally sterile body site whose reported community of residence was on or around the Navajo Nation. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-nine cases of invasive S. aureus from 152 individuals were identified. The median age of cases was 56.3 years and 35% were female. Thirty-five percent of cases had community-acquired infections. Ninety-three percent of cases had underlying medical conditions, including diabetes (60%) and obesity (42%), 28% of cases had a documented prior S. aureus infection, and 33% were infected with methicillin-resistant S. aureus. The annual incidence of invasive S. aureus and of invasive methicillin-resistant S. aureus was 64.9/100,000 persons and 21.2/100,000 persons, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This community has a high burden of invasive S. aureus infections. Further research is needed to identify prevention strategies and opportunities for intervention.

Efficacy, safety and immunogenicity of a pneumococcal protein-based vaccine co-administered with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against acute otitis media in young children: A phase IIb randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Native American populations experience a substantial burden of pneumococcal disease despite use of highly effective pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). Protein-based pneumococcal vaccines may extend protection beyond the serotype-specific protection elicited by PCVs. METHODS: In this phase IIb, double-blind, controlled trial, 6-12 weeks-old Native American infants randomized 1:1, received either a protein-based pneumococcal vaccine (dPly/PhtD) containing pneumolysin toxoid (dPly, 10 µg) and pneumococcal histidine triad protein D (PhtD, 10 µg) or placebo, administered along with 13-valent PCV (PCV13) at ages 2, 4, 6 and 12-15 months. Other pediatric vaccines were given per the routine immunization schedule. We assessed vaccine efficacy (VE) against acute otitis media (AOM) and acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI) endpoints. Immunogenicity, reactogenicity and unsolicited adverse events were assessed in a sub-cohort and serious adverse events were assessed in all children. RESULTS: 1803 infants were randomized (900 dPly/PhtD; 903 Control). VE against all episodes of American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP)-defined AOM was 3.8% (95% confidence interval: -11.4, 16.9). Point estimates of VE against other AOM outcomes ranged between 2.9% (-9.5, 14.0) and 5.2% (-8.0, 16.8). Point estimates of VE against ALRI outcomes ranged between -4.4% (-39.2, 21.8) and 2.0% (-18.3, 18.8). Point estimates of VE tended to be higher against first than all episodes but the confidence intervals included zero. dPly/PhtD vaccine was immunogenic and had an acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile after primary and booster vaccination in Native American infants. CONCLUSIONS: The dPly/PhtD vaccine was immunogenic and well tolerated, however, incremental efficacy in preventing AAP-AOM over PCV13 was not demonstrated. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01545375 (www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Norovirus and Sapovirus Epidemiology and Strain Characteristics among Navajo and Apache Infants.

Norovirus and sapovirus are important causes of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) among American Indian infants. We investigated the prevalence and molecular epidemiology of norovirus and sapovirus in American Indian infants who have historically experienced a high burden of AGE compared to other US populations. Stool samples were collected from 241 children with AGE (cases) and from 343 infants without AGE (controls) ≤9 months of age from 2002-2004. Cases experienced forceful vomiting and/or 3 or more watery or looser-than-normal stools in 24 hours. Stools were tested by real-time RT-PCR for norovirus GI, GII and GIV and sapovirus GI, GII, GIV and GV. Positive samples were genotyped after sequencing conventional RT-PCR products. Norovirus was identified in 76 (31.5%) of the cases and 70 (20.4%) of the controls (p<0.001). GII.3 and GII.4 Farmington Hills were the most frequently identified genotypes in 14.5% and 30.3% of cases and 17.1% and 27.1% of controls, respectively. Sapovirus GI and GII genotypes were identified in 8 (3.3%) of cases and 8 (2.3%) of controls and a single GIV virus was detected in a control. The same norovirus and sapovirus genotypes were circulating in the general U.S. population in the same time period. The high detection rate of norovirus in healthy controls suggests significant asymptomatic transmission in young infants in these communities.

Impact of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Pneumococcal Carriage Among American Indians.

BACKGROUND: Community-wide impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) is conferred by reductions in vaccine-type nasopharyngeal carriage. We evaluated the impact of PCV13 on carriage of PCV13-specific types (1, 3, 5, 6A, 7F and 19A) and 6C among American Indians. METHODS: A nasopharyngeal specimen was collected from community members of all ages between January 2010 and April 2012 (3 months before and 24 months after PCV13 introduction). Pneumococci were isolated by culture and serotyped using antisera. Monthly carriage prevalence and PCV13 coverage were calculated to identify the timing of vaccine impact relative to PCV13 introduction. Prevalence ratios (PRs) were used to compare PCV13-specific carriage before and in years 1 and 2 of PCV13 use. Coverage was calculated according to age and number of doses received. RESULTS: 6645 participants (2859 <5 years and 3786 ≥5 years of age) provided 6628 specimens. A decline in PCV13-specific and type 6C carriage among children <5 years of age was observed 9 and 15 months after PCV13 introduction, respectively. Among underimmunized children, a decline in PCV13-specific carriage was observed 11 months after PCV13 introduction, when coverage in the community reached 58%. In year 2 of PCV13 use, PCV13-specific and 6C carriage were reduced by 60% and 70%, respectively (PCV13 specific: PR = 0.4, P < 0.001; 6C: PR = 0.3, P < 0.001) among children <5 years of age. The reduction in PCV13-specific carriage among those 5 to <8 years and 18+ years of age in year 2 of PCV13 use was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: PCV13 reduced PCV13-specific and 6C carriage among children <5 years of age. Low pre-PCV13 carriage prevalence of PCV13-specific types limited confirming this reduction for adults.

Nasopharyngeal carriage and transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae in American Indian households after a decade of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use.

BACKGROUND: Young children played a major role in pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage, acquisition, and transmission in the era before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use. Few studies document pneumococcal household dynamics in the routine-PCV7 era. METHODS: We investigated age-specific acquisition, household introduction, carriage clearance, and intra-household transmission in a prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in 300 American Indian households comprising 1,072 participants between March 2006 and March 2008. RESULTS: Pneumococcal acquisition rates were 2-6 times higher in children than adults. More household introductions of new pneumococcal strains were attributable to children <9 years than adults ≥17 years (p<0.001), and older children (2-8 years) than younger children (<2 years) (p<0.008). Compared to children <2 years, carriage clearance was more rapid in older children (2-4 years, HRclearance 1.53 [95% CI: 1.22, 1.91]; 5-8 years, HRclearance 1.71 [1.36, 2.15]) and adults (HRclearance 1.75 [1.16, 2.64]). Exposure to serotype-specific carriage in older children (2-8 years) most consistently increased the odds of subsequently acquiring that serotype for other household members. CONCLUSIONS: In this community with a high burden of pneumococcal colonization and disease and routine PCV7 use, children (particularly older children 2-8 years) drive intra-household pneumococcal transmission: first, by acquiring, introducing, and harboring pneumococcus within the household, and then by transmitting acquired serotypes more efficiently than household members of other ages.

Comparative immunogenicity of 7 and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and the development of functional antibodies to cross-reactive serotypes.

BACKGROUND: Protection against disease or colonization from serotypes related to those in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (i.e. cross-protection) vary by serotype; the basis for this variation is not understood. The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) replaced 7-valent conjugate (PCV7) in the USA in 2010 allowing assessment of PCV7 and PCV13 immunogenicity and functional cross-protection in vitro. METHODS: Post-primary, pre-booster and post-booster sera from American Indian children receiving exclusively PCV7 or PCV13 were collected. IgG was measured by ELISA for 13 vaccine serotypes; functional antibody was assessed by opsonophagocytic killing assays for serotypes 6A/B/C and 19A/F. RESULTS: Post-primary IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMC) for serotypes 4 and 9V were lower in PCV13 recipients while 19F GMCs were higher. Only 19F differences persisted after receipt of the booster dose. Functional antibody activity was higher among PCV13 recipients for 6A, 6C, 19A and 19F (p<0.04), and among PCV7 recipients for 6B (p = 0.01). Following PCV7, functional antibodies to 6A but not 19A were observed. High levels of 6C functional activity were seen after PCV13 but not PCV7. CONCLUSIONS: Functional antibody activity against 6A/B/C and 19A/F suggest that PCV13 is likely to control the 19A disease and 6C disease remaining despite widespread use of PCV7.

Efficacy of a pentavalent human-bovine reassortant rotavirus vaccine against rotavirus gastroenteritis among American Indian children.

BACKGROUND: Before the widespread use of rotavirus vaccines, rotavirus was a leading cause of gastroenteritis among children. Navajo and White Mountain Apache children suffer a disproportionate burden of severe rotavirus disease compared with the general U.S. population. METHODS: We enrolled Navajo and White Mountain Apache infants in a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of pentavalent human-bovine reassortant rotavirus vaccine (PRV). Subjects received 3 doses of vaccine or placebo at 4 to 10 week intervals, with the first dose given between 6 and 12 weeks of age. Gastroenteritis episodes were identified by active surveillance. Disease severity was determined by a standardized scoring system. RESULTS: There were 509 and 494 randomized children who received vaccine and placebo, respectively. Among placebo recipients, the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis was 34.2 episodes/100 child-years (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 25.8-38.9) versus 8.1 episodes/100 child-years (95% CI: 5.4-12.5) in the vaccine group. The percentage of rotavirus episodes caused by serotypes G1, G2, and G3 was 72.3%, 23.4%, and 2.1%, respectively. There were no severe rotavirus episodes among vaccinees and 4 among placebo recipients. PRV was 77.1% (95% CI: 59.7-87.6), 89.5% (95% CI: 65.9-97.9), and 82.9% (95% CI: 61.1-93.6) effective against G1-G4 rotavirus disease, severe and moderate rotavirus disease combined, and outpatient visits for rotavirus disease, respectively. The risk of adverse events was similar for the vaccine and placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: PRV was highly effective in preventing rotavirus disease and related health care utilization in these American Indian infants. Vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity were similar to the overall study population enrolled in the multicenter trial.

Respiratory syncytial virus infection in Navajo and White Mountain Apache children.

OBJECTIVE: The hospitalization rate for bronchiolitis of any cause among US children younger than 1 year is estimated at 31.2 per 1000. No data exist on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-specific hospitalization rates among high-risk Native Americans other than Alaska Natives, for whom the incidence of RSV hospitalization was estimated at 150 per 1000 among infants younger than 1 year. We aimed to estimate RSV hospitalization rates among Navajo and White Mountain Apache children younger than 2 years. METHODS: We conducted prospective population-level hospital-based surveillance to determine RSV hospitalization rates among Navajo and White Mountain Apache children younger than 2 years. From 1997 to 2000, all children who were admitted for acute lower respiratory tract infection between October 1 and March 31 had a nasopharyngeal aspirate obtained and tested for RSV by commercial enzyme immunoassay kits. We reviewed charts of children who tested positive for RSV antigen to determine disease severity. RESULTS: During 3 RSV seasons (1997-2000), 51.3% of 1837 admissions for acute lower respiratory tract infection among children younger than 2 years were attributed to RSV infection. The overall seasonal RSV hospitalization rate among children younger than 2 years was 63.6 per 1000 and 91.3 per 1000 among children younger than 1 year. In a univariate analysis, predictors of severity included age <6 months (relative risk: 6.8; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-17.0). CONCLUSIONS: Navajo and White Mountain Apache children are at high risk for RSV disease requiring hospitalization. A lower threshold for hospitalization or underlying chronic conditions that predispose to severe RSV disease do not seem to explain high RSV hospitalization rates in this population.