A Bayesian Network Model for Seismic Risk Analysis.

Earthquakes are one of the most unpredictable natural disasters. A series of secondary and derived disaster events may occur afterwards and lead to even more consequences. In such situations, a seismic risk analysis that takes into account secondary and derived disaster events is vital in reducing the risks of such disasters. The absence of a holistic seismic risk analysis model-one that takes into account the derived disaster events-may mean that the serious consequences of the disaster chains set off by earthquakes are neglected. This article proposes a comprehensive seismic risk analysis that enables a better understanding of seismic disaster chains and rescue scenarios. The approach is based on a Bayesian network constructed using scenario-based methods. The final network structure is achieved by learning parameters. To determine the critical secondary disasters and the key emergency-response measures, probability adaptation and updating using the Bayesian model were performed. The practical application of the model is illustrated using the Wenchuan earthquake and the Jiuzhaigou earthquake in China. The two examples show that the model can be used to predict the potential effects of secondary disasters and the final seismic losses. The results of the model can help decisionmakers gain a comprehensive understanding of seismic risk and implement practical emergency-rescue measures to reduce risk and losses.

Numerical investigation of airflow, heat transfer and particle deposition for oral breathing in a realistic human upper airway model.

Inhalation injury from exposure to fire smoke is one of the causes of burn-related death. In this study, a realistic three-dimensional human upper airway model was built from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanned images, including the nasal, oral, pharynx, larynx, trachea and part of the first generation of the tracheobronchial tree, as well as a tissue region from the pharynx to the upper bronchi. The Transition Shear Stress Transport (SST-transition) turbulence model, Pennes bioheat transfer equation, convective boundary conditions and a Lagrangian frame were applied and verified with experimental measurements to simulate the airflow fields, temperature distributions and particle deposition in the human airway model. The effects of flow rate, inhalation temperature and particle diameter were studied. It showed that the oral cavity is more likely to be affected by the inlet air conditions. The mucosa in the oral, pharynx and larynx are more likely to cause the thermal injury. The inspiration flow rate significantly influences the airflow fields, temperature distributions and particle deposition fraction interior of the human upper airway model, especially in the pharynx-larynx region. The rising flow rate, inhalation air temperature and particle diameter all contribute to boosting the total deposition fraction in the model. The heated particles with a higher temperature are more likely to be deposited in the oral cavity and the influence of the inlet temperature has a minor influence in the case of a bigger particle diameter.

Cellular automaton simulation of pedestrian counter flow with different walk velocities.

This paper presents a cellular automaton model without step back for pedestrian dynamics considering the human behaviors which can make judgments in some complex situations. This model can simulate pedestrian movement with different walk velocities through update at different time-step intervals. Two kinds of boundary conditions including periodic and open boundary for pedestrian counter flow are considered, and their dynamical characteristics are discussed. Simulation results show that for periodic boundary condition there are three phases of pedestrian patterns, i.e., freely moving phase, lane formation phase, and perfectly stopped phase at some certain total density ranges. In the stage of lane formation, the phenomenon that pedestrians exceed those with lower walk velocity through a narrow walkway can be found. For open boundary condition, at some certain entrance densities, there are two steady states of pedestrian patterns; but the first is metastable. Spontaneous fluctuations can break the first steady state, i.e., freely moving phase, and run into the second steady state, i.e., perfectly stopped phase.

Quantitative assessment of the relationship between radiant heat exposure and protective performance of multilayer thermal protective clothing during dry and wet conditions.

The beneficial effect of clothing on a person is important to the criteria for people exposure to radiant heat flux from fires. The thermal protective performance of multilayer thermal protective clothing exposed to low heat fluxes during dry and wet conditions was studied using two designed bench-scale test apparatus. The protective clothing with four fabric layers (outer shell, moisture barrier, thermal linear and inner layer) was exposed to six levels of thermal radiation (1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10kW/m(2)). Two kinds of the moisture barrier (PTFE and GoreTex) with different vapor permeability were compared. The outside and inside surface temperatures of each fabric layer were measured. The fitting analysis was used to quantitatively assess the relationship between the temperature of each layer during thermal exposure and the level of external heat flux. It is indicated that there is a linear correlation between the temperature of each layer and the radiant level. Therefore, a predicted equation is developed to calculate the thermal insulation of the multilayer clothing from the external heat flux. It can also provide some useful information on the beneficial effects of clothing for the exposure criteria of radiant heat flux from fire.

Characterizations of particle size distribution of the droplets exhaled by sneeze.

This work focuses on the size distribution of sneeze droplets exhaled immediately at mouth. Twenty healthy subjects participated in the experiment and 44 sneezes were measured by using a laser particle size analyser. Two types of distributions are observed: unimodal and bimodal. For each sneeze, the droplets exhaled at different time in the sneeze duration have the same distribution characteristics with good time stability. The volume-based size distributions of sneeze droplets can be represented by a lognormal distribution function, and the relationship between the distribution parameters and the physiological characteristics of the subjects are studied by using linear regression analysis. The geometric mean of the droplet size of all the subjects is 360.1 µm for unimodal distribution and 74.4 µm for bimodal distribution with geometric standard deviations of 1.5 and 1.7, respectively. For the two peaks of the bimodal distribution, the geometric mean (the geometric standard deviation) is 386.2 µm (1.8) for peak 1 and 72.0 µm (1.5) for peak 2. The influences of the measurement method, the limitations of the instrument, the evaporation effects of the droplets, the differences of biological dynamic mechanism and characteristics between sneeze and other respiratory activities are also discussed.

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment.