DNA damage remodels the MITF interactome to increase melanoma genomic instability.

Since genome instability can drive cancer initiation and progression, cells have evolved highly effective and ubiquitous DNA damage response (DDR) programs. However, some cells (for example, in skin) are normally exposed to high levels of DNA-damaging agents. Whether such high-risk cells possess lineage-specific mechanisms that tailor DNA repair to the tissue remains largely unknown. Using melanoma as a model, we show here that the microphthalmia-associated transcription factor MITF, a lineage addition oncogene that coordinates many aspects of melanocyte and melanoma biology, plays a nontranscriptional role in shaping the DDR. On exposure to DNA-damaging agents, MITF is phosphorylated at S325, and its interactome is dramatically remodeled; most transcription cofactors dissociate, and instead MITF interacts with the MRE11-RAD50-NBS1 (MRN) complex. Consequently, cells with high MITF levels accumulate stalled replication forks and display defects in homologous recombination-mediated repair associated with impaired MRN recruitment to DNA damage. In agreement with this, high MITF levels are associated with increased single-nucleotide and copy number variant burdens in melanoma. Significantly, the SUMOylation-defective MITF-E318K melanoma predisposition mutation recapitulates the effects of DNA-PKcs-phosphorylated MITF. Our data suggest that a nontranscriptional function of a lineage-restricted transcription factor contributes to a tissue-specialized modulation of the DDR that can impact cancer initiation.

Anatomic position determines oncogenic specificity in melanoma.

Oncogenic alterations to DNA are not transforming in all cellular contexts1,2. This may be due to pre-existing transcriptional programmes in the cell of origin. Here we define anatomic position as a major determinant of why cells respond to specific oncogenes. Cutaneous melanoma arises throughout the body, whereas the acral subtype arises on the palms of the hands, soles of the feet or under the nails3. We sequenced the DNA of cutaneous and acral melanomas from a large cohort of human patients and found a specific enrichment for BRAF mutations in cutaneous melanoma and enrichment for CRKL amplifications in acral melanoma. We modelled these changes in transgenic zebrafish models and found that CRKL-driven tumours formed predominantly in the fins of the fish. The fins are the evolutionary precursors to tetrapod limbs, indicating that melanocytes in these acral locations may be uniquely susceptible to CRKL. RNA profiling of these fin and limb melanocytes, when compared with body melanocytes, revealed a positional identity gene programme typified by posterior HOX13 genes. This positional gene programme synergized with CRKL to amplify insulin-like growth factor (IGF) signalling and drive tumours at acral sites. Abrogation of this CRKL-driven programme eliminated the anatomic specificity of acral melanoma. These data suggest that the anatomic position of the cell of origin endows it with a unique transcriptional state that makes it susceptible to only certain oncogenic insults.

The Immunogenomic Landscape of Peripheral High-Dose IL-2 Pharmacodynamics in Patients with Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Benchmark for Next-Generation IL-2-Based Immunotherapies.

High-dose (HD) IL-2 was the first immuno-oncology agent approved for treating advanced renal cell carcinoma and metastatic melanoma, but its use was limited because of substantial toxicities. Multiple next-generation IL-2 agents are being developed to improve tolerability. However, a knowledge gap still exists for the genomic markers that define the target pharmacology for HD IL-2 itself. In this retrospective observational study, we collected PBMC samples from 23 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who were treated with HD IL-2 between 2009 and 2015. We previously reported the results of flow cytometry analyses. In this study, we report the results of our RNA-sequencing immunogenomic survey, which was performed on bulk PBMC samples from immediately before (day 1), during (day 3), and after treatment (day 5) in cycle 1 and/or cycle 2 of the first course of HD IL-2. As part of a detailed analysis of immunogenomic response to HD IL-2 treatment, we analyzed the changes in individual genes and immune gene signatures. By day 3, most lymphoid cell types had transiently decreased, whereas myeloid transcripts increased. Although most genes and/or signatures generally returned to pretreatment expression levels by day 5, certain ones representative of B cell, NK cell, and T cell proliferation and effector functions continued to increase, along with B cell (but not T cell) oligoclonal expansion. Regulatory T cells progressively expanded during and after treatment. They showed strong negative correlation with myeloid effector cells. This detailed RNA-sequencing immunogenomic survey of IL-2 pharmacology complements results of prior flow cytometry analyses. These data provide valuable pharmacological context for assessing PBMC gene expression data from patients dosed with IL-2-related compounds that are currently in development.

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Disparate Dementia Risk Factors Are Associated with Cognitive Impairment and Rates of Decline in African Americans.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to evaluate the frequency of modifiable dementia risk factors and their association with cognitive impairment and rate of decline in diverse participants engaged in studies of memory and aging. METHODS: Modifiable dementia risk factors and their associations with cognitive impairment and cognitive decline were determined in community-dwelling African American (AA; n = 261) and non-Hispanic White (nHW; n = 193) participants who completed ≥2 visits at the Mayo Clinic Alzheimer Disease Research Center in Jacksonville, Florida. Risk factors and their associations with cognitive impairment (global Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] ≥ 0.5) and rates of decline (CDR Sum of Boxes) in impaired participants were compared in AA and nHW participants, controlling for demographics, APOE ɛ4 status, and Area Deprivation Index. RESULTS: Hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and diabetes were overrepresented in AA participants, but were not associated with cognitive impairment. Depression was associated with increased odds of cognitive impairment in AA (odds ratio [OR] = 4.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.13-8.67) and nHW participants (OR = 2.79, 95% CI = 1.21-6.44) but uniquely associated with faster decline in AA participants (ß = 1.71, 95% CI = 0.69-2.73, p = 0.001). Fewer AA participants reported antidepressant use (9/49, 18%) than nHW counterparts (57/78, 73%, p < 0.001). Vitamin B12 deficiency was also associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in AA participants (ß = 2.65, 95% CI = 0.38-4.91, p = 0.023). INTERPRETATION: Modifiable dementia risk factors are common in AA and nHW participants, representing important risk mitigation targets. Depression was associated with dementia in AA and nHW participants, and with accelerated declines in cognitive function in AA participants. Optimizing depression screening and treatment may improve cognitive trajectories and outcomes in AA participants. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:518-529.

Multi-omics of the gut microbial ecosystem in inflammatory bowel diseases.

Inflammatory bowel diseases, which include Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, affect several million individuals worldwide. Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are complex diseases that are heterogeneous at the clinical, immunological, molecular, genetic, and microbial levels. Individual contributing factors have been the focus of extensive research. As part of the Integrative Human Microbiome Project (HMP2 or iHMP), we followed 132 subjects for one year each to generate integrated longitudinal molecular profiles of host and microbial activity during disease (up to 24 time points each; in total 2,965 stool, biopsy, and blood specimens). Here we present the results, which provide a comprehensive view of functional dysbiosis in the gut microbiome during inflammatory bowel disease activity. We demonstrate a characteristic increase in facultative anaerobes at the expense of obligate anaerobes, as well as molecular disruptions in microbial transcription (for example, among clostridia), metabolite pools (acylcarnitines, bile acids, and short-chain fatty acids), and levels of antibodies in host serum. Periods of disease activity were also marked by increases in temporal variability, with characteristic taxonomic, functional, and biochemical shifts. Finally, integrative analysis identified microbial, biochemical, and host factors central to this dysregulation. The study's infrastructure resources, results, and data, which are available through the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Multi'omics Database ( http://ibdmdb.org ), provide the most comprehensive description to date of host and microbial activities in inflammatory bowel diseases.

Bacteriophage targeting of gut bacterium attenuates alcoholic liver disease.

Chronic liver disease due to alcohol-use disorder contributes markedly to the global burden of disease and mortality1-3. Alcoholic hepatitis is a severe and life-threatening form of alcohol-associated liver disease. The gut microbiota promotes ethanol-induced liver disease in mice4, but little is known about the microbial factors that are responsible for this process. Here we identify cytolysin-a two-subunit exotoxin that is secreted by Enterococcus faecalis5,6-as a cause of hepatocyte death and liver injury. Compared with non-alcoholic individuals or patients with alcohol-use disorder, patients with alcoholic hepatitis have increased faecal numbers of E. faecalis. The presence of cytolysin-positive (cytolytic) E. faecalis correlated with the severity of liver disease and with mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Using humanized mice that were colonized with bacteria from the faeces of patients with alcoholic hepatitis, we investigated the therapeutic effects of bacteriophages that target cytolytic E. faecalis. We found that these bacteriophages decrease cytolysin in the liver and abolish ethanol-induced liver disease in humanized mice. Our findings link cytolytic E. faecalis with more severe clinical outcomes and increased mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. We show that bacteriophages can specifically target cytolytic E. faecalis, which provides a method for precisely editing the intestinal microbiota. A clinical trial with a larger cohort is required to validate the relevance of our findings in humans, and to test whether this therapeutic approach is effective for patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

Estimating the Potential Public Health Value of BCG Revaccination.

An upcoming trial may provide further evidence that adolescent/adult-targeted BCG revaccination prevents sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but its public health value depends on its impact on overall tuberculosis morbidity and mortality, which will remain unknown. Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and -50% (increasing risk). Given the assumed prevention-of-infection efficacy and range in prevention-of-disease efficacy, BCG revaccination may have a positive health impact and be cost-effective. This may be useful when considering future evaluations and implementation of adolescent/adult BCG revaccination.

A real-time regional model for COVID-19: Probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting.

The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging nations with devastating health and economic consequences. The spread of the disease has revealed major geographical heterogeneity because of regionally varying individual behaviour and mobility patterns, unequal meteorological conditions, diverse viral variants, and locally implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination roll-out. To support national and regional authorities in surveilling and controlling the pandemic in real-time as it unfolds, we here develop a new regional mathematical and statistical model. The model, which has been in use in Norway during the first two years of the pandemic, is informed by real-time mobility estimates from mobile phone data and laboratory-confirmed case and hospitalisation incidence. To estimate regional and time-varying transmissibility, case detection probabilities, and missed imported cases, we developed a novel sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation method allowing inference in useful time, despite the high parametric dimension. We test our approach on Norway and find that three-week-ahead predictions are precise and well-calibrated, enabling policy-relevant situational awareness at a local scale. By comparing the reproduction numbers before and after lockdowns, we identify spatially heterogeneous patterns in their effect on the transmissibility, with a stronger effect in the most populated regions compared to the national reduction estimated to be 85% (95% CI 78%-89%). Our approach is the first regional changepoint stochastic metapopulation model capable of real time spatially refined surveillance and forecasting during emergencies.

Young Age as a Predictor of Chemotherapy Recommendation and Treatment in Breast Cancer: A National Cancer Database Study.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer, although the second most common malignancy in women in the United States, is rare in patients under the age of 40 y. However, this young patient population has high recurrence and mortality rates, with chemotherapy frequently used as adjuvant treatment. We aimed to determine whether age is an independent predictor of chemotherapy recommendation and subsequent treatment and the relationship to Oncotype Dx (ODX) recurrence score (RS). METHODS: The National Cancer Database was retrospectively reviewed from 2010-2016 to identify women with early-stage (pT1-pT3, pN0-pN1mic, M0), hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancer who underwent ODX RS testing. RESULTS: Of 95,382 patients who met the inclusion criteria, risk groups using the traditional ODX RS cutoffs were 59% low, 33% intermediate, and 8% high. Using Trial Assigning Individualized Options for Treatment RS cutoffs, risk groups were 23% low, 62% intermediate, and 15% high. Chemotherapy recommendation decreased as age at diagnosis increased (P < 0.001). Increasing age was associated with decreased odds of chemotherapy recommendation in univariate models both continuously (odds ratio: 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.97-0.98; P < 0.001) and categorically by decade (P < 0.001). Age by decade remained an independent prognosticator of chemotherapy recommendation (P < 0.001), adjusted for risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy recommendation and treatment differs by age among patients with early-stage hormone receptor positive breast cancer who undergo ODX testing. While molecular profiling has been shown to accurately predict the benefit of chemotherapy, younger age at diagnosis is a risk factor for discordant use of ODX RS for treatment strategies in breast cancer; with patients aged 18-39 disproportionately affected.

Stress from Nucleotide Depletion Activates the Transcriptional Regulator HEXIM1 to Suppress Melanoma.

Studying cancer metabolism gives insight into tumorigenic survival mechanisms and susceptibilities. In melanoma, we identify HEXIM1, a transcription elongation regulator, as a melanoma tumor suppressor that responds to nucleotide stress. HEXIM1 expression is low in melanoma. Its overexpression in a zebrafish melanoma model suppresses cancer formation, while its inactivation accelerates tumor onset in vivo. Knockdown of HEXIM1 rescues zebrafish neural crest defects and human melanoma proliferation defects that arise from nucleotide depletion. Under nucleotide stress, HEXIM1 is induced to form an inhibitory complex with P-TEFb, the kinase that initiates transcription elongation, to inhibit elongation at tumorigenic genes. The resulting alteration in gene expression also causes anti-tumorigenic RNAs to bind to and be stabilized by HEXIM1. HEXIM1 plays an important role in inhibiting cancer cell-specific gene transcription while also facilitating anti-cancer gene expression. Our study reveals an important role for HEXIM1 in coupling nucleotide metabolism with transcriptional regulation in melanoma.

Using an expanded algorithm to estimate prevalence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in U.S. and UK.

BACKGROUND: There is an increasing need to better understand the burden of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using real-world data (RWD). However, identifying ALS cases using RWD presents several challenges due to the rarity of ALS and the differences in database coding systems. METHODS: MarketScan claims, and the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases were searched for diagnosis codes of ALS or MND, the only drugs approved for treating ALS (riluzole and edaravone) and clinical visits with 12-month enrolment prior to 1 January 2011. The main algorithm required ≥ 1 ALS diagnosis code together with prescriptions or clinical visits. We expanded the existing algorithm to identify unspecific (possible) ALS group that had codes for motor neuron disease (MND) and the ALS drugs. The study period was from 1 January 2011 until 31 December 2020. RESULTS: We identified 16,246 patients with ≥ 1 ALS code in Marketscan (denominator n = 85,279,619), yet only 184 were found in the UK CPRD (denominator n = 21,318,589). Using the main algorithm 9,433 ALS patients were included in MarketScan, with a prevalence ranged between 4.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and 6.2 in 2015. In MarketScan, 3,658 (4.3 per 100,000) had ≥ 1 MND code and the ALS drug codes (possible cases). In CPRD, 47.9% of 2,785 patients with ≥ 1 MND code had a prescription for riluzole (6.3 per 100,000), regarded as possible ALS cases. CONCLUSIONS: The expanded algorithm enabled the identification of a large population with ALS, or possible ALS, and the estimation of ALS prevalence in MarketScan and CPRD.

In adults with VTE who received anticoagulants for ≥3 mo, VTE-PREDICT predicted recurrence and bleeding at up to 5 y.

SOURCE CITATION: de Winter MA, Büller HR, Carrier M, et al; VTE-PREDICT study group. Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score. Eur Heart J. 2023;44:1231-1244. 36648242.

A pioneer in the management of Australian psychiatric services: Dr Richard Greenup (1803-1866).

OBJECTIVES: To provide a brief biography of Dr Richard Greenup and to explore the legacy he has left to one of Australia's longest operating psychiatric services. METHODS: This history was obtained by consulting staff working within Cumberland Hospital, New South Wales and by examining primary and secondary sources. RESULTS: Greenup was the second surgeon superintendent of 'The Parramatta Lunatic Asylum' from 1852 until 1866 when he was fatally stabbed with a pair of scissors by a patient. Greenup was involved in establishing The University of Sydney and advocated for expanded and improved services for people diagnosed with mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Greenup recognised the needs of the mentally ill and sought to address similar social and demographic determinants of health to those that we face today. The challenges he faced, and his tragic end remind us of the importance of delivering patient-centred care whilst being mindful of associated risks.

An Aspiration to Radically Shorten Phase 3 Tuberculosis Vaccine Trials.

A new tuberculosis vaccine is a high priority. However, the classical development pathway is a major deterrent. Most tuberculosis cases arise within 2 years after Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure, suggesting a 3-year trial period should be possible if sample size is large to maximize the number of early exposures. Increased sample size could be facilitated by working alongside optimized routine services for case ascertainment, with strategies for enhanced case detection and safety monitoring. Shortening enrolment could be achieved by simplifying screening criteria and procedures and strengthening site capacity. Together, these measures could enable radically shortened phase 3 tuberculosis vaccine trials.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

Assessing trends in breast care surveillance metrics after implementing surgeon-specific tracking and performance reporting in a large, integrated cancer network.

BACKGROUND: There are few quality metrics and benchmarks specific to surgical oncology. Development of a surgeon-level performance metrics system based on peer comparisons is hypothesized to positively influence surgical decision-making. This study established a tracking and reporting system comprised of evidence and consensus-based metrics to assess breast care delivered by individual surgeons. METHODS: Surgeons' performance is assessed by a surveillance tracking system of metrics pertaining to referrals and surgical elements. This retrospective analysis of prospectively collected breast care data reports on recurring 6-month and cumulative data from nine care locations from 2015 to 2021. RESULTS: Breast care was provided to 6659 patients by 41 surgeons. A total of 27 breast care metrics were evaluated over 7 years. Metrics with consistent, proficient results were retired after 18 months, including the rate of core biopsy, specimen orientation, and referrals to medical oncology, genetics, and fertility, among others. In clinically node-negative, hormone receptor-positive patients 70 years of age or older, the cumulative rate of sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy significantly decreased by 40% over 5.5 years (p < .001). The overall breast conservation rate for T0-T2 cancer increased 10% over 7 years. At the surgeon level, improvements were made in the median number of SLNs removed and in operative note documentation. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a surgeon-specific, peer comparison-based metric and tracking system has yielded substantive changes in breast care management. This process and governance structure can serve as a model for quantification of breast care at other institutions and for other disease sites.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination.

BACKGROUND: India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS: We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. RESULTS: M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. CONCLUSIONS: M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

Viral enumeration using cost-effective wet-mount epifluorescence microscopy for aquatic ecosystems and modern microbialites.

IMPORTANCE: Low-cost and robust viral enumeration is a critical first step toward understanding the global virome. Our method is a deep drive integration providing a window into viral dark matter within aquatic ecosystems. We enumerated the viruses within Green Lake and Great Salt Lake microbialites, EPS, and water column. The entire weight of all the viruses in Green Lake and Great Salt Lake are ~598 g and ~2.2 kg, respectively.