Declining transition rates to psychosis: the contribution of potential changes in referral pathways to an ultra-high-risk service.

AIM: On the basis of applying 'ultra-high-risk' (UHR) criteria, initially high rates of transition to psychosis were reported. However, a decline in transition to psychosis has been observed in recent years. The current descriptive paper aims to investigate if this drop in transition rate may be due to potential changes in patterns of referral to a large UHR clinic. METHODS: One hundred fifty young people who were referred to the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) Clinic in Melbourne, Australia, between August 2000 and July 2004 were included. Their referral pathways were assessed using a semistructured interview. Results were compared with a similar study of a cohort referred to the same clinic between 1995 and 1996. RESULTS: The mean number of contacts prior to referral to the PACE Clinic was 1.93 (standard deviation (SD) = 1.15), and the average time between symptom onset and referral to PACE was 46.5 weeks (SD = 57.4). In comparison with the earlier cohort (mean = 2.36; SD = 1.32), our results indicate a lower number of contacts (Cohen's d = 0.35, r = 0.17). Furthermore, participants in the current study were referred twice as fast to the PACE Clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing awareness of UHR symptoms among professionals and in the general population seems to have resulted in faster referral of young people to specialized mental health services. The global drop in transition rate might be due to a change in referral pathways to UHR services.

Demographic and clinical characteristics of young people seeking help at youth mental health services: baseline findings of the Transitions Study.

AIM: The Transitions Study was designed to establish a cohort of young people (12-25 years) seeking help for mental health problems, in order to longitudinally explore and refine a clinical staging model of the development and progression of mental disorders. This paper presents the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of the cohort, particularly the nature and severity of psychopathology. METHOD: All eligible young people attending one of four headspace clinical services were invited to participate, and completed a battery of self-report and interviewer-administered measures of psychopathology and functional impairment at baseline, which will be repeated at the annual follow up. RESULTS: Of 1615 eligible clients, 802 young people (66% women; mean age = 18.3 years) consented to participate and completed baseline assessments (participation rate = 50%). The severity of mental health problems varied, with 51% meeting the criteria for probable caseness related to generalized anxiety, 45% presenting with moderate to severe depressive symptoms and over a third experiencing subthreshold psychotic symptomatology. Disordered eating (32%) and problematic tobacco (56%), cannabis (30%) and alcohol (38%) use also affected a significant proportion. Overall, 39% of the cohort were classed as being functionally impaired at baseline. CONCLUSION: The Transitions Study recruited a heterogeneous cohort at baseline in relation to the nature and severity of mental health problems and levels of functional impairment. The variation in clinical presentations within the cohort, from mild, through moderate to severe levels of psychopathology and impairment, increases the likelihood of the Transitions Study ultimately being able to achieve its aims of empirically testing a clinical staging model for mental disorders.

Transition to first episode psychosis in ultra high risk populations: does baseline functioning hold the key?

BACKGROUND: Baseline functioning has been found to be a strong predictor of transition to psychosis in ultra high risk populations. However, the time course of functioning may enhance prediction. We investigated whether there were different patterns of functioning over time and whether particular temporal patterns were related to baseline characteristics and psychosis outcome. METHOD: Functional data was assessed at baseline and after 3 to 6year follow-up in an ultra high risk sample (n=158; 92 female, mean age=19.28 (SD=3.33), range=14-29). Using the median score of the GAF and the QLS scale, a 'High' and 'Low' group (comprising of subjects functioning above or below median at both baseline and follow-up) and a 'Deterioration' group and 'Improving' group were created. RESULTS: Chi-square analyses showed that the Low and Deteriorating functioning groups were the most likely to develop first-episode psychosis (FEP). Importantly, UHR individuals with deteriorating functioning were at higher risk of transition than those whose functioning was low at baseline but improved over time (GAF: X(2)=5.10, df=1, p=.02; QLS: X(2)=9.13, df=1, p=.003). Binary logistic regression analyses showed that a decline in functioning was more strongly associated with FEP (GAF: p=<.0001; QLS: p<.0001) than the level of baseline functioning (GAF: p=.005; QLS: p=.09). The deteriorating group could not be distinguished from the High group in terms of baseline symptomatology. DISCUSSION: With the addition of the 'low functioning' criterion to the UHR criteria, we may miss out on some true positive cases. Limiting our attention to baseline poor functioning may therefore distort the picture in terms of risk for psychosis.