Estimated Costs of 4-Month Pulmonary Tuberculosis Treatment Regimen, United States.

We estimated direct costs of a 4-month or 6-month regimen for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis treatment in the United States. Costs were $23,000 per person treated. Actual treatment costs will vary depending on examination and medication charges, as well as expenses associated with directly observed therapy.

Recommendations for Use of Video Directly Observed Therapy During Tuberculosis Treatment - United States, 2023.

U.S. clinical practice guidelines recommend directly observed therapy (DOT) as the standard of care for tuberculosis (TB) treatment (1). DOT, during which a health care worker observes a patient ingesting the TB medications, has typically been conducted in person. Video DOT (vDOT) uses video-enabled devices to facilitate remote interactions between patients and health care workers to promote medication adherence and clinical monitoring. Published systematic reviews, a published meta-analysis, and a literature search through 2022 demonstrate that vDOT is associated with a higher proportion of medication doses being observed and similar proportions of cases with treatment completion and microbiologic resolution when compared with in-person DOT (2-5). Based on this evidence, CDC has updated the recommendation for DOT during TB treatment to include vDOT as an equivalent alternative to in-person DOT. vDOT can assist health department TB programs meet the U.S. standard of care for patients undergoing TB treatment, while using resources efficiently.

Guidelines for the Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2020.

Comprehensive guidelines for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among persons living in the United States were last published in 2000 (American Thoracic Society. CDC targeted tuberculin testing and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2000;161:S221-47). Since then, several new regimens have been evaluated in clinical trials. To update previous guidelines, the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association (NTCA) and CDC convened a committee to conduct a systematic literature review and make new recommendations for the most effective and least toxic regimens for treatment of LTBI among persons who live in the United States.The systematic literature review included clinical trials of regimens to treat LTBI. Quality of evidence (high, moderate, low, or very low) from clinical trial comparisons was appraised using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. In addition, a network meta-analysis evaluated regimens that had not been compared directly in clinical trials. The effectiveness outcome was tuberculosis disease; the toxicity outcome was hepatotoxicity. Strong GRADE recommendations required at least moderate evidence of effectiveness and that the desirable consequences outweighed the undesirable consequences in the majority of patients. Conditional GRADE recommendations were made when determination of whether desirable consequences outweighed undesirable consequences was uncertain (e.g., with low-quality evidence).These updated 2020 LTBI treatment guidelines include the NTCA- and CDC-recommended treatment regimens that comprise three preferred rifamycin-based regimens and two alternative monotherapy regimens with daily isoniazid. All recommended treatment regimens are intended for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis that is presumed to be susceptible to isoniazid or rifampin. These updated guidelines do not apply when evidence is available that the infecting M. tuberculosis strain is resistant to both isoniazid and rifampin; recommendations for treating contacts exposed to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis were published in 2019 (Nahid P, Mase SR Migliori GB, et al. Treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis. An official ATS/CDC/ERS/IDSA clinical practice guideline. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2019;200:e93-e142). The three rifamycin-based preferred regimens are 3 months of once-weekly isoniazid plus rifapentine, 4 months of daily rifampin, or 3 months of daily isoniazid plus rifampin. Prescribing providers or pharmacists who are unfamiliar with rifampin and rifapentine might confuse the two drugs. They are not interchangeable, and caution should be taken to ensure that patients receive the correct medication for the intended regimen. Preference for these rifamycin-based regimens was made on the basis of effectiveness, safety, and high treatment completion rates. The two alternative treatment regimens are daily isoniazid for 6 or 9 months; isoniazid monotherapy is efficacious but has higher toxicity risk and lower treatment completion rates than shorter rifamycin-based regimens.In summary, short-course (3- to 4-month) rifamycin-based treatment regimens are preferred over longer-course (6-9 month) isoniazid monotherapy for treatment of LTBI. These updated guidelines can be used by clinicians, public health officials, policymakers, health care organizations, and other state and local stakeholders who might need to adapt them to fit individual clinical circumstances.

Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California.

Rationale: Mathematical modeling is used to understand disease dynamics, forecast trends, and inform public health prioritization. We conducted a comparative analysis of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology and potential intervention effects in California, using three previously developed epidemiologic models of TB.Objectives: To compare the influence of various modeling methods and assumptions on epidemiologic projections of domestic latent TB infection (LTBI) control interventions in California.Methods: We compared model results between 2005 and 2050 under a base-case scenario representing current TB services and alternative scenarios including: 1) sustained interruption of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission, 2) sustained resolution of LTBI and TB prior to entry of new residents, and 3) one-time targeted testing and treatment of LTBI among 25% of non-U.S.-born individuals residing in California.Measurements and Main Results: Model estimates of TB cases and deaths in California were in close agreement over the historical period but diverged for LTBI prevalence and new Mtb infections-outcomes for which definitive data are unavailable. Between 2018 and 2050, models projected average annual declines of 0.58-1.42% in TB cases, without additional interventions. A one-time LTBI testing and treatment intervention among non-U.S.-born residents was projected to produce sustained reductions in TB incidence. Models found prevalent Mtb infection and migration to be more significant drivers of future TB incidence than local transmission.Conclusions: All models projected a stagnation in the decline of TB incidence, highlighting the need for additional interventions including greater access to LTBI diagnosis and treatment for non-U.S.-born individuals. Differences in model results reflect gaps in historical data and uncertainty in the trends of key parameters, demonstrating the need for high-quality, up-to-date data on TB determinants and outcomes.

Robustness of NHANES Estimates of the US Prevalence of a Positive Tuberculin Skin Test.

BACKGROUND: A single 2-year National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycle is designed to provide accurate and stable estimates of conditions with prevalence of at least 10%. Recent NHANES-based estimates of a tuberculin skin test (TST) ≥10 mm in the noninstitutionalized US civilian population are at most 6.3%. METHODS: NHANES included a TST in 1971-1972, 1999-2000, and 2011-2012. We examined the robustness of NHANES-based estimates of the US population prevalence of a skin test ≥10 mm with a bias analysis that considered the influence of non-US birth distributions and within-household skin test results, reclassified borderline-positive results, and adjusted for TST item nonresponse. RESULTS: The weighted non-US birth distribution among NHANES participants was similar to that in the overall US population; further adjustment was unnecessary. We found no evidence of bias due to sampling multiple participants per household. Prevalence estimates changed 0.3% with reclassification of borderline-positive TST results and 0.2%-0.3% with adjustment for item nonresponse. CONCLUSIONS: For estimating the national prevalence of a TST ≥10 mm during these three survey cycles, a conventional NHANES analysis using the standard participant weights and masked design parameters that are provided in the public-use datasets appears robust. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B636.

Simple Estimates for Local Prevalence of Latent Tuberculosis Infection, United States, 2011-2015.

We used tuberculosis genotyping results to derive estimates of prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection in the United States. We estimated <1% prevalence in 1,981 US counties, 1%-<3% in 785 counties, and >3% in 377 counties. This method for estimating prevalence could be applied in any jurisdiction with an established tuberculosis surveillance system.

Age-Period-Cohort Analyses of Tuberculosis Incidence Rates by Nativity, United States, 1996-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To assess changes in US tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates by age, period, and cohort effects, stratified according to race/ethnicity and nativity. METHODS: We used US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System data for 1996 to 2016 to estimate trends through age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: Controlling for cohort and period effects indicated that the highest rates of TB incidence occurred among those 0 to 5 and 20 to 30 years of age. The incidence decreased by age for successive birth cohorts. There were greater estimated annual percentage decreases among US-born individuals (-7.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -7.5, -7.1) than among non-US-born individuals (-4.3%; 95% CI = -4.5, -4.1). US-born individuals older than 25 years exhibited the largest decreases, a pattern that was not reflected among non-US-born adults. In the case of race/ethnicity, the greatest decreases by nativity were among US-born Blacks (-9.3%; 95% CI = -9.6, -9.1) and non-US-born Hispanics (-5.7%; 95% CI = -6.0, -5.5). CONCLUSIONS: TB has been decreasing among all ages, races and ethnicities, and consecutive cohorts, although these decreases are less pronounced among non-US-born individuals.

Update of Recommendations for Use of Once-Weekly Isoniazid-Rifapentine Regimen to Treat Latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection.

Treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is critical to the control and elimination of tuberculosis disease (TB) in the United States. In 2011, CDC recommended a short-course combination regimen of once-weekly isoniazid and rifapentine for 12 weeks (3HP) by directly observed therapy (DOT) for treatment of LTBI, with limitations for use in children aged <12 years and persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (1). CDC identified the use of 3HP in those populations, as well as self-administration of the 3HP regimen, as areas to address in updated recommendations. In 2017, a CDC Work Group conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses of the 3HP regimen using methods adapted from the Guide to Community Preventive Services. In total, 19 articles representing 15 unique studies were included in the meta-analysis, which determined that 3HP is as safe and effective as other recommended LTBI regimens and achieves substantially higher treatment completion rates. In July 2017, the Work Group presented the meta-analysis findings to a group of TB experts, and in December 2017, CDC solicited input from the Advisory Council for the Elimination of Tuberculosis (ACET) and members of the public for incorporation into the final recommendations. CDC continues to recommend 3HP for treatment of LTBI in adults and now recommends use of 3HP 1) in persons with LTBI aged 2-17 years; 2) in persons with LTBI who have HIV infection, including acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and are taking antiretroviral medications with acceptable drug-drug interactions with rifapentine; and 3) by DOT or self-administered therapy (SAT) in persons aged ≥2 years.

Practical comparison of aberration detection algorithms for biosurveillance systems.

National syndromic surveillance systems require optimal anomaly detection methods. For method performance comparison, we injected multi-day signals stochastically drawn from lognormal distributions into time series of aggregated daily visit counts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's BioSense syndromic surveillance system. The time series corresponded to three different syndrome groups: rash, upper respiratory infection, and gastrointestinal illness. We included a sample of facilities with data reported every day and with median daily syndromic counts ⩾1 over the entire study period. We compared anomaly detection methods of five control chart adaptations, a linear regression model and a Poisson regression model. We assessed sensitivity and timeliness of these methods for detection of multi-day signals. At a daily background alert rate of 1% and 2%, the sensitivities and timeliness ranged from 24 to 77% and 3.3 to 6.1days, respectively. The overall sensitivity and timeliness increased substantially after stratification by weekday versus weekend and holiday. Adjusting the baseline syndromic count by the total number of facility visits gave consistently improved sensitivity and timeliness without stratification, but it provided better performance when combined with stratification. The daily syndrome/total-visit proportion method did not improve the performance. In general, alerting based on linear regression outperformed control chart based methods. A Poisson regression model obtained the best sensitivity in the series with high-count data.

Estimated rate of reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection in the United States, overall and by population subgroup.

We estimated the rate of reactivation tuberculosis (TB) in the United States, overall and by population subgroup, using data on TB cases and Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolate genotyping reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2006-2008. The rate of reactivation TB was defined as the number of non-genotypically clustered TB cases divided by the number of person-years at risk for reactivation due to prevalent latent TB infection (LTBI). LTBI was ascertained from tuberculin skin tests given during the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Clustering of TB cases was determined using TB genotyping data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and analyzed via spatial scan statistic. Of the 39,920 TB cases reported during 2006-2008, 79.7% were attributed to reactivation. The overall rate of reactivation TB among persons with LTBI was estimated as 0.084 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.083, 0.085) cases per 100 person-years. Rates among persons with and without human immunodeficiency virus coinfection were 1.82 (95% CI: 1.74, 1.89) and 0.073 (95% CI: 0.070, 0.075) cases per 100 person-years, respectively. The rate of reactivation TB among persons with LTBI was higher among foreign-born persons (0.098 cases/100 person-years; 95% CI: 0.096, 0.10) than among persons born in the United States (0.082 cases/100 person-years; 95% CI: 0.080, 0.083). Differences in rates of TB reactivation across subgroups support current recommendations for targeted testing and treatment of LTBI.

Risk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011-19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Despite an overall decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the USA in the past two decades, racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis outcomes persist. We aimed to examine the extent to which inequalities in health and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability mediate these disparities. METHODS: We extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on individuals with tuberculosis during 2011-19. Individuals with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis or missing data on race and ethnicity were excluded. We examined potential disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born and non-US-born individuals and conducted a mediation analysis for groups with a higher risk of treatment incompletion (a summary outcome comprising diagnosis after death, treatment discontinuation, or death during treatment). We used sequential multiple mediation to evaluate eight potential mediators: three comorbid conditions (HIV, end-stage renal disease, and diabetes), homelessness, and four census tract-level measures (poverty, unemployment, insurance coverage, and racialised economic segregation [measured by Index of Concentration at the ExtremesRace-Income]). We estimated the marginal contribution of each mediator using Shapley values. FINDINGS: During 2011-19, 27 788 US-born individuals and 57 225 non-US-born individuals were diagnosed with active tuberculosis, of whom 27 605 and 56 253 individuals, respectively, met eligibility criteria for our analyses. We did not observe evidence of disparities in tuberculosis outcomes for non-US-born individuals by race and ethnicity. Therefore, subsequent analyses were restricted to US-born individuals. Relative to White individuals, Black and Hispanic individuals had a higher risk of not completing tuberculosis treatment (adjusted relative risk 1·27, 95% CI 1·19-1·35; 1·22, 1·11-1·33, respectively). In multiple mediator analysis, the eight measured mediators explained 67% of the disparity for Black individuals and 65% for Hispanic individuals. The biggest contributors to these disparities for Black individuals and Hispanic individuals were concomitant end-stage renal disease, concomitant HIV, census tract-level racialised economic segregation, and census tract-level poverty. INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the need for initiatives to reduce disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born individuals, particularly in highly racially and economically polarised neighbourhoods. Mitigating the structural and environmental factors that lead to disparities in the prevalence of comorbidities and their case management should be a priority. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Prevention Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement.

Relationship between Mycobacterium tuberculosis phylogenetic lineage and clinical site of tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis has revealed 4 major phylogenetic lineages with differential distribution worldwide. It is not clear whether different lineages are associated with different sites of infection (eg, pulmonary tuberculosis versus extrapulmonary tuberculosis). We sought to determine whether M. tuberculosis lineage is associated with the site of tuberculosis disease. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all culture-confirmed cases of tuberculosis with routinely determined M. tuberculosis spoligotype-defined lineage reported to the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System from 2004 through 2008. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to assess the relation between disease site and M. tuberculosis lineage, after adjustment for age, sex, human immunodeficiency virus infection status, region of birth, and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Of 53972 reported culture-positive tuberculosis cases, 32000 (59.3%) were cases of M. tuberculosis that included complete spoligotype-based data on lineage. Of these, 23844 (74.5%) were exclusively pulmonary, 5085 (15.9%) were exclusively extrapulmonary, and 3071 (9.6%) were combined pulmonary and extrapulmonary. The percentages of tuberculosis cases that were exclusively extrapulmonary differed by lineage: East Asian, 13.0%; Euro-American, 13.8%; Indo-Oceanic, 22.6%; and East-African Indian, 34.3%. Compared with East Asian lineage, the odds of exclusively extrapulmonary tuberculosis relative to exclusively pulmonary tuberculosis were greater for Euro-American (adjusted OR, 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.4), Indo-Oceanic (adjusted OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.5-1.9), and East-African Indian (adjusted OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9) lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Phylogenetic lineage of M. tuberculosis is associated with the site of tuberculosis disease.

Seasonality of tuberculosis in the United States, 1993-2008.

BACKGROUND: Although seasonal variation in tuberculosis incidence has been described in several recent studies, the mechanism underlying this seasonality remains unknown. Seasonality of tuberculosis disease may indicate the presence of season-specific risk factors that could potentially be controlled if they were better understood. We conducted this study to determine whether tuberculosis is seasonal in the United States and to describe patterns of seasonality in specific populations. METHODS: We performed a time series decomposition analysis of tuberculosis cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1993 through 2008. Seasonal amplitude of tuberculosis disease (the difference between the months with the highest and lowest mean case counts), was calculated for the population as a whole and for populations with select demographic, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 243 432 laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis cases were reported over a period of 16 years. A mean of 21.4% more cases were diagnosed in March, the peak month, compared with November, the trough month. The magnitude of seasonality did not vary with latitude. The greatest seasonal amplitude was found among children aged <5 years and in cases associated with disease clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis is a seasonal disease in the United States, with a peak in spring and trough in late fall. The latitude independence of seasonality suggests that reduced winter sunlight exposure may not be a strong contributor to tuberculosis risk. Increased seasonality among young children and clustered cases suggests that disease that is the result of recent transmission is more influenced by season than disease resulting from activation of latent infection.

A Bayesian analysis of the 2009 decline in tuberculosis morbidity in the United States.

Although annual data are commonly used to model linear trends and changes in trends of disease incidence, monthly data could provide additional resolution for statistical inferences. Because monthly data may exhibit seasonal patterns, we need to consider seasonally adjusted models, which can be theoretically complex and computationally intensive. We propose a combination of methods to reduce the complexity of modeling seasonal data and to provide estimates for a change in trend when the timing and magnitude of the change are unknown. To assess potential changes in trend, we first used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to analyze the residuals and forecast errors, followed by multiple ARIMA intervention models to estimate the timing and magnitude of the change. Because the variable corresponding to time of change is not a statistical parameter, its confidence bounds cannot be estimated by intervention models. To model timing of change and its credible interval, we developed a Bayesian technique. We avoided the need for computationally intensive simulations by deriving a closed form for the posterior distribution of the time of change. Using a combination of ARIMA and Bayesian methods, we estimated the timing and magnitude of change in trend for tuberculosis cases in the United States. Published 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Confidence intervals and statistical testing for ratio measures of percent change.

In public health and medical research, ratio measures of percent change relative to baseline are often used to express a change in disease incidence. Estimating variance becomes more complex when the comparison is to an expectation based on previous data (E), rather than to an observed value (O). In 2009, the decline in reported tuberculosis (TB) cases was the largest single-year decrease since national TB surveillance began in 1953. To investigate the 2009 TB decline compared with expected counts, we analyzed TB cases reported to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Tuberculosis Surveillance System. We log-transformed case counts for 2000-2008, and performed linear regression stratified by patient and clinical characteristics. We calculated relative declines from expectation as (O - E) ∕ E for patient subgroups, and constructed 95% confidence intervals for TB declines. We then formulated a Z-score test statistic comparing declines across patient subgroups under the null hypothesis that the difference of the two ratio measures was zero. We illustrate our methods by comparing 2009 declines from expectation for US-born versus foreign-born patients. Predicted values and confidence intervals assessed the magnitude of unexpected TB declines within patient groups, while statistical tests comparing ratio measures evaluated relative TB declines across groups. Published 2012. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A national study of socioeconomic status and tuberculosis rates by country of birth, United States, 1996-2005.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) in developed countries has historically been associated with poverty and low socioeconomic status (SES). In the past quarter century, TB in the United States has changed from primarily a disease of native-born to primarily a disease of foreign-born persons, who accounted for more than 60% of newly-diagnosed TB cases in 2010. The purpose of this study was to assess the association of SES with rates of TB in U.S.-born and foreign-born persons in the United States, overall and for the five most common foreign countries of origin. METHODS: National TB surveillance data for 1996-2005 was linked with ZIP Code-level measures of SES (crowding, unemployment, education, and income) from U.S. Census 2000. ZIP Codes were grouped into quartiles from low SES to high SES and TB rates were calculated for foreign-born and U.S.-born populations in each quartile. RESULTS: TB rates were highest in the quartiles with low SES for both U.S.-born and foreign-born populations. However, while TB rates increased five-fold or more from the two highest to the two lowest SES quartiles among the U.S.-born, they increased only by a factor of 1.3 among the foreign-born. CONCLUSIONS: Low SES is only weakly associated with TB among foreign-born persons in the United States. The traditional associations of TB with poverty are not sufficient to explain the epidemiology of TB among foreign-born persons in this country and perhaps in other developed countries. TB outreach and research efforts that focus only on low SES will miss an important segment of the foreign-born population.

Use of tuberculosis genotyping for postoutbreak monitoring.

CONTEXT: Review of routinely collected tuberculosis genotyping results following a known outbreak is a potential mechanism to examine the effectiveness of outbreak control measures. OBJECTIVE: To assess differences in characteristics between outbreak and postoutbreak tuberculosis cases. DESIGN: Retrospective. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: All tuberculosis cases identified as a result of >5-person outbreaks investigated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2003 to 2007 (original outbreak cases), and subsequent culture-positive tuberculosis cases with matching Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes reported in the same county during 2004 to 2008 (postoutbreak cases). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Proportion of demographic, social, and clinical characteristics of tuberculosis outbreak cases compared to postoutbreak cases. SECONDARY: Proportion of demographic, social, and clinical characteristics of epidemiologically linked versus nonlinked cases. RESULTS: Six outbreaks with 111 outbreak cases and 110 postoutbreak cases were identified. Differences between outbreak and postoutbreak cases were gender (69% vs 85% male; P < .01), birth origin (3% vs 11% foreign-born; P = .02), disease severity (48% vs 62% sputum smear-positive; P = .04), homelessness (38% vs 51%; P = .05), and injection drug use (4% vs 11%; P = .04). For 5 of the 6 outbreaks, the status of epidemiologic relationships among postoutbreak cases was available (n = 89). The postoutbreak cases with a known epidemiologic link to the original outbreak were in younger persons (aged 39 vs 47 years; P < .01), and a larger proportion reported injection drug use (18% vs 4%; P = .04) or noninjection drug use (44% vs 18%; P < .01) than those without a reported link. CONCLUSIONS: Health jurisdictions can utilize genotyping data to monitor and define the characteristics of postoutbreak cases related to the original outbreak.

Isoniazid-resistant tuberculous meningitis, United States, 1993-2005.

To determine patient characteristics associated with isoniazid resistance in cases of tuberculous meningitis, we conducted a cross-sectional study by using data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System during 1993-2005. Foreign-born patients were more likely to be infected with an isoniazid-resistant strain.

Epidemiology of urban tuberculosis in the United States, 2000-2007.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates and characteristics of patients with TB in large US cities. METHODS: Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Tuberculosis Surveillance System data, we categorized 48 cities annually from 2000 to 2007 as reporting decreasing or nondecreasing rates with Joinpoint analysis. We compared demographic, clinical, and treatment characteristics of patients with TB using bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: We found that 42 448 patients with TB in 48 cities accounted for 36% of all US patients with TB; these cities comprised 15% of the US population. The average TB incidence rate in the 48 cities (12.1 per 100,000) was higher than that in the US excluding the cities (3.8 per 100,000) but decreased at a faster rate. Nineteen cities had decreasing rates; 29 cities had nondecreasing rates. Patient characteristics did not conclusively distinguish decreasing and nondecreasing rate cities. CONCLUSIONS: A significant TB burden occurs in large US cities. More than half (60%) of the selected cities did not show decreasing TB incidence rates. Studies of city-level variations in migration, socioeconomic status, and resources are needed to improve urban TB control.

Unexpected decline in tuberculosis cases coincident with economic recession - United States, 2009.

BACKGROUND: Since 1953, through the cooperation of state and local health departments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has collected information on incident cases of tuberculosis (TB) disease in the United States. In 2009, TB case rates declined -11.4%, compared to an average annual -3.8% decline since 2000. The unexpectedly large decline raised concerns that TB cases may have gone unreported. To address the unexpected decline, we examined trends from multiple sources on TB treatment initiation, medication sales, and laboratory and genotyping data on culture-positive TB. METHODS: We analyzed 142,174 incident TB cases reported to the U. S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) during January 1, 2000-December 31, 2009; TB control program data from 59 public health reporting areas; self-reported data from 50 CDC-funded public health laboratories; monthly electronic prescription claims for new TB therapy prescriptions; and complete genotyping results available for NTSS cases. Accounting for prior trends using regression and time-series analyses, we calculated the deviation between observed and expected TB cases in 2009 according to patient and clinical characteristics, and assessed at what point in time the deviation occurred. RESULTS: The overall deviation in TB cases in 2009 was -7.9%, with -994 fewer cases reported than expected (P < .001). We ruled out evidence of surveillance underreporting since declines were seen in states that used new software for case reporting in 2009 as well as states that did not, and we found no cases unreported to CDC in our examination of over 5400 individual line-listed reports in 11 areas. TB cases decreased substantially among both foreign-born and U.S.-born persons. The unexpected decline began in late 2008 or early 2009, and may have begun to reverse in late 2009. The decline was greater in terms of case counts among foreign-born than U.S.-born persons; among the foreign-born, the declines were greatest in terms of percentage deviation from expected among persons who had been in the United States less than 2 years. Among U.S.-born persons, the declines in percentage deviation from expected were greatest among homeless persons and substance users. Independent information systems (NTSS, TB prescription claims, and public health laboratories) reported similar patterns of declines. Genotyping data did not suggest sudden decreases in recent transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our assessments show that the decline in reported TB was not an artifact of changes in surveillance methods; rather, similar declines were found through multiple data sources. While the steady decline of TB cases before 2009 suggests ongoing improvement in TB control, we were not able to identify any substantial change in TB control activities or TB transmission that would account for the abrupt decline in 2009. It is possible that other multiple causes coincident with economic recession in the United States, including decreased immigration and delayed access to medical care, could be related to TB declines. Our findings underscore important needs in addressing health disparities as we move towards TB elimination in the United States.