Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires.

The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to the previous four decades1. Here, we quantify the carbon emissions from these fires from May to September 2023 on the basis of inverse modelling of satellite carbon monoxide observations. We find that the magnitude of the carbon emissions is 647 TgC (570-727 TgC), comparable to the annual fossil fuel emissions of large nations, with only India, China and the USA releasing more carbon per year2. We find that widespread hot-dry weather was a principal driver of fire spread, with 2023 being the warmest and driest year since at least 19803. Although temperatures were extreme relative to the historical record, climate projections indicate that these temperatures are likely to be typical during the 2050s, even under a moderate climate mitigation scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP 2-4.5)4. Such conditions are likely to drive increased fire activity and suppress carbon uptake by Canadian forests, adding to concerns about the long-term durability of these forests as a carbon sink5-8.

Investigation of the Spatial Distribution of Methane Sources in the Greater Toronto Area Using Mobile Gas Monitoring Systems.

For methane emission reduction strategies in urban areas to be effective, large emitters must be identified. Recent studies in U.S. cities have highlighted the contribution of methane emissions from natural gas distribution networks and end use. We present a methane emission source identification and quantification method for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the largest metropolitan area in Canada, using mobile gas monitoring systems. From May 2018 to August 2019, we collected 77 surveys of methane mixing ratios, covering a distance of about 6400 km, and sampled emission plumes from sources such as closed landfills, natural gas compressor stations, and waterways. Our results indicate that inactive landfills emit less than inventory estimates. Despite this discrepancy, we confirm that the waste sector is the largest methane emitter in the GTA. We also report that the frequency of methane leaks from the local distribution system ranges between 4 and 22 leaks per 100 km of roadway in downtown Toronto, which is comparable to the range observed in U.S. cities, which have invested in modern natural gas distribution infrastructure. Last, we find that engineered waterways, whose emissions are currently not reported in inventories, may be a significant source of methane.

Simultaneous retrieval of atmospheric CO2 and light path modification from space-based spectroscopic observations of greenhouse gases: methodology and application to GOSAT measurements over TCCON sites.

This paper presents an improved photon path length probability density function method that permits simultaneous retrievals of column-average greenhouse gas mole fractions and light path modifications through the atmosphere when processing high-resolution radiance spectra acquired from space. We primarily describe the methodology and retrieval setup and then apply them to the processing of spectra measured by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We have demonstrated substantial improvements of the data processing with simultaneous carbon dioxide and light path retrievals and reasonable agreement of the satellite-based retrievals against ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer measurements provided by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON).

On the sources of methane to the Los Angeles atmosphere.

We use historical and new atmospheric trace gas observations to refine the estimated source of methane (CH(4)) emitted into California's South Coast Air Basin (the larger Los Angeles metropolitan region). Referenced to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CO emissions inventory, total CH(4) emissions are 0.44 ± 0.15 Tg each year. To investigate the possible contribution of fossil fuel emissions, we use ambient air observations of methane (CH(4)), ethane (C(2)H(6)), and carbon monoxide (CO), together with measured C(2)H(6) to CH(4) enhancement ratios in the Los Angeles natural gas supply. The observed atmospheric C(2)H(6) to CH(4) ratio during the ARCTAS (2008) and CalNex (2010) aircraft campaigns is similar to the ratio of these gases in the natural gas supplied to the basin during both these campaigns. Thus, at the upper limit (assuming that the only major source of atmospheric C(2)H(6) is fugitive emissions from the natural gas infrastructure) these data are consistent with the attribution of most (0.39 ± 0.15 Tg yr(-1)) of the excess CH(4) in the basin to uncombusted losses from the natural gas system (approximately 2.5-6% of natural gas delivered to basin customers). However, there are other sources of C(2)H(6) in the region. In particular, emissions of C(2)H(6) (and CH(4)) from natural gas seeps as well as those associated with petroleum production, both of which are poorly known, will reduce the inferred contribution of the natural gas infrastructure to the total CH(4) emissions, potentially significantly. This study highlights both the value and challenges associated with the use of ethane as a tracer for fugitive emissions from the natural gas production and distribution system.

Using a Speed-Dependent Voigt Line Shape to Retrieve O2 from Total Carbon Column Observing Network Solar Spectra to Improve Measurements of XCO2.

High-resolution, laboratory, absorption spectra of the a 1 Δ g ← X 3 ∑ g - oxygen (O2) band measured using cavity ring-down spectroscopy were fitted using the Voigt and speed-dependent Voigt line shapes. We found that the speed-dependent Voigt line shape was better able to model the measured absorption coefficients than the Voigt line shape. We used these line shape models to calculate absorption coefficients to retrieve atmospheric total columns abundances of O2 from ground-based spectra from four Fourier transform spectrometers that are apart of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) Lower O2 total columns were retrieved with the speed-dependent Voigt line shape, and the difference between the total columns retrieved using the Voigt and speed-dependent Voigt line shapes increased as a function of solar zenith angle. Previous work has shown that carbon dioxide (CO2) total columns are better retrieved using a speed-dependent Voigt line shape with line mixing. The column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) was calculated using the ratio between the columns of CO2 and O2 retrieved (from the same spectra) with both line shapes from measurements made over a one-year period at the four sites. The inclusion of speed dependence in the O2 retrievals significantly reduces the airmass dependence of XCO2 and the bias between the TCCON measurements and calibrated integrated aircraft profile measurements was reduced from 1% to 0.4%. These results suggest that speed dependence should be included in the forward model when fitting near-infrared CO2 and O2 spectra to improve the accuracy of XCO2 measurements.

Response to Comment on "Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015-2016 El Niño".

Chevallier showed a column CO2 ([Formula: see text]) anomaly of ±0.5 parts per million forced by a uniform net biosphere exchange (NBE) anomaly of 2.5 gigatonnes of carbon over the tropical continents within a year, so he claimed that the inferred NBE uncertainties should be larger than presented in Liu et al We show that a much concentrated NBE anomaly led to much larger [Formula: see text] perturbations.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) tracks 2-3 peta-gram increase in carbon release to the atmosphere during the 2014-2016 El Niño.

The powerful El Niño event of 2015-2016 - the third most intense since the 1950s - has exerted a large impact on the Earth's natural climate system. The column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) observations from satellites and ground-based networks are analyzed together with in situ observations for the period of September 2014 to October 2016. From the differences between satellite (OCO-2) observations and simulations using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we estimate that, relative to the mean annual fluxes for 2014, the most recent El Niño has contributed to an excess CO2 emission from the Earth's surface (land + ocean) to the atmosphere in the range of 2.4 ± 0.2 PgC (1 Pg = 1015 g) over the period of July 2015 to June 2016. The excess CO2 flux is resulted primarily from reduction in vegetation uptake due to drought, and to a lesser degree from increased biomass burning. It is about the half of the CO2 flux anomaly (range: 4.4-6.7 PgC) estimated for the 1997/1998 El Niño. The annual total sink is estimated to be 3.9 ± 0.2 PgC for the assumed fossil fuel emission of 10.1 PgC. The major uncertainty in attribution arise from error in anthropogenic emission trends, satellite data and atmospheric transport.

Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015-2016 El Niño.

The 2015-2016 El Niño led to historically high temperatures and low precipitation over the tropics, while the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was the largest on record. Here we quantify the response of tropical net biosphere exchange, gross primary production, biomass burning, and respiration to these climate anomalies by assimilating column CO2, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, and carbon monoxide observations from multiple satellites. Relative to the 2011 La Niña, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere in 2015, consisting of approximately even contributions from three tropical continents but dominated by diverse carbon exchange processes. The heterogeneity of the carbon-exchange processes indicated here challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability.

The total carbon column observing network.

A global network of ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers has been founded to remotely measure column abundances of CO(2), CO, CH(4), N(2)O and other molecules that absorb in the near-infrared. These measurements are directly comparable with the near-infrared total column measurements from space-based instruments. With stringent requirements on the instrumentation, acquisition procedures, data processing and calibration, the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) achieves an accuracy and precision in total column measurements that is unprecedented for remote-sensing observations (better than 0.25% for CO(2)). This has enabled carbon-cycle science investigations using the TCCON dataset, and allows the TCCON to provide a link between satellite measurements and the extensive ground-based in situ network.