Changes in characteristics of hepatitis C patients seen in a liver centre in the United States during the last decade.

With the approval of 2 direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in 2011 and anticipation of interferon (IFN)-free regimens, more hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronically infected patients are now seeking treatment. To describe the characteristics of newly referred HCV patients in 2011-2012 (Era-2) and compare them to those seen in 1998-1999 (Era-1). Retrospective data were collected from HCV patients newly referred to our tertiary liver clinics. Advanced liver disease was defined as cirrhosis (based on histology or Aspartate aminotransferase-platelet-ratio index (APRI) >2), hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 1348 patients (538 in Era-1, 810 in Era-2) were included. Compared to Era-1, Era-2 patients were older (median age 56 vs 45 years), more likely to be black (17.2% vs 11.6%) and had a longer interval between diagnosis and referral (median 4 vs 2 years). Genotype (GT) 1 predominated in both Eras with a significant increase in GT1a from 39.9% in Era-1 to 53.8% in Era-2. A higher per cent of patients in Era-2 were treatment experienced, but 77% had never received treatment. Era-2 patients were more likely to have advanced disease at referral (61.6% vs 51.5%, P < 0.001), with an eightfold higher prevalence of HCC (21.6% vs 2.6%, P < 0.001). HCV patients newly referred in recent years were older, predominantly infected with GT1a and had more advanced liver disease yet only a quarter had received HCV treatment. Reduction in HCV disease burden will require development of treatment regimens targeted towards patients in the current Era as well as increase in diagnosis and referral of patients for treatment.

Systematic review: identifying patients with chronic hepatitis C in need of early treatment and intensive monitoring--predictors and predictive models of disease progression.

BACKGROUND: Advances in hepatitis C therapies have led to increasing numbers of patients seeking treatment. As a result, logistical and financial concerns regarding how treatment can be provided to all patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) have emerged. AIM: To evaluate predictors and predictive models of histological progression and clinical outcomes for patients with CHC. METHODS: MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for studies published between January 2003 and June 2014. Two authors independently reviewed articles to select eligible studies and performed data abstraction. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies representing 5817 patients from 20 unique cohorts were included. The outcome incidence rates were widely variable: 16-61% during median follow-up of 2.5-10 years for fibrosis progression; 13-40% over 2.3-14.4 years for hepatic decompensation and 8-47% over 3.9-14.4 years for overall mortality. Multivariate analyses showed that baseline steatosis and baseline fibrosis score were the most consistent predictors of fibrosis progression (significant in 6/21 and 5/21, studies, respectively) while baseline platelet count (significant in 6/13 studies), aspartate and alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, albumin, bilirubin and age (each significant in 4/13 studies) were the most consistent predictors of clinical outcomes. Five studies developed predictive models but none were externally validated. CONCLUSIONS: Our review identified the variables that most consistently predict outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis C allowing the application of risk based approaches to identify patients in need of early treatment and intensive monitoring. This approach maximises effective use of resources and costly new direct-acting anti-viral agents.