RESUMEN
Fever is common among individuals seeking healthcare after traveling to tropical regions. Despite the association with potentially severe disease, the etiology is often not determined. Plasma protein patterns can be informative to understand the host response to infection and can potentially indicate the pathogen causing the disease. In this study, we measured 49 proteins in the plasma of 124 patients with fever after travel to tropical or subtropical regions. The patients had confirmed diagnoses of either malaria, dengue fever, influenza, bacterial respiratory tract infection, or bacterial gastroenteritis, representing the most common etiologies. We used multivariate and machine learning methods to identify combinations of proteins that contributed to distinguishing infected patients from healthy controls, and each other. Malaria displayed the most unique protein signature, indicating a strong immunoregulatory response with high levels of IL10, sTNFRI and II, and sCD25 but low levels of sCD40L. In contrast, bacterial gastroenteritis had high levels of sCD40L, APRIL, and IFN-γ, while dengue was the only infection with elevated IFN-α2. These results suggest that characterization of the inflammatory profile of individuals with fever can help to identify disease-specific host responses, which in turn can be used to guide future research on diagnostic strategies and therapeutic interventions.
Asunto(s)
Infecciones Bacterianas , Dengue , Gastroenteritis , Malaria , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio , Humanos , Dengue/diagnóstico , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/complicaciones , Gastroenteritis/complicaciones , Viaje , Fiebre/complicacionesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum holds an extensive genetic polymorphism. In this pooled analysis, we investigate how the multiplicity in asymptomatic P. falciparum infections-that is, the number of coinfecting clones-affects the subsequent risk of clinical malaria in populations living under different levels of transmission. METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was performed to identify studies in which P. falciparum infections were genotyped in asymptomatic individuals who were followed up prospectively regarding the incidence of clinical malaria. Individual participant data were pooled from 15 studies (n = 3736 individuals). RESULTS: Multiclonal asymptomatic infections were associated with a somewhat increased subsequent risk of clinical malaria in the youngest children, followed by an initial declining risk with age irrespective of transmission intensity. At approximately 5 years of age, the risk continued the gradual decline with age in high-transmission settings. However, in older children in moderate-, low-, and seasonal-transmission settings, multiclonal infections were either not significantly associated with the risk of subsequent febrile malaria or were associated with an increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: The number of clones in asymptomatic P. falciparum infections is associated with different risks of subsequent clinical malaria depending on age and transmission intensity.
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Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Genotipo , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Antígenos de Protozoos/genética , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Malaria Falciparum/transmisión , Masculino , Proteína 1 de Superficie de Merozoito/genética , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Proteínas Protozoarias/genética , Riesgo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a global health problem and accurate surveillance of Plasmodium parasites that are responsible for this disease is required to guide the most effective distribution of control measures. Serological surveillance will be particularly important in areas of low or periodic transmission because patient antibody responses can provide a measure of historical exposure. While methods for detecting host antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are well established, development of serological assays for Plasmodium knowlesi, Plasmodium ovale and Plasmodium malariae have been inhibited by a lack of immunodiagnostic candidates due to the limited availability of genomic information. METHODS: Using the recently completed genome sequences from P. malariae, P. ovale and P. knowlesi, a set of 33 candidate cell surface and secreted blood-stage antigens was selected and expressed in a recombinant form using a mammalian expression system. These proteins were added to an existing panel of antigens from P. falciparum and P. vivax and the immunoreactivity of IgG, IgM and IgA immunoglobulins from individuals diagnosed with infections to each of the five different Plasmodium species was evaluated by ELISA. Logistic regression modelling was used to quantify the ability of the responses to determine prior exposure to the different Plasmodium species. RESULTS: Using sera from European travellers with diagnosed Plasmodium infections, antigens showing species-specific immunoreactivity were identified to select a panel of 22 proteins from five Plasmodium species for serological profiling. The immunoreactivity to the antigens in the panel of sera taken from travellers and individuals living in malaria-endemic regions with diagnosed infections showed moderate power to predict infections by each species, including P. ovale, P. malariae and P. knowlesi. Using a larger set of patient samples and logistic regression modelling it was shown that exposure to P. knowlesi could be accurately detected (AUC = 91%) using an antigen panel consisting of the P. knowlesi orthologues of MSP10, P12 and P38. CONCLUSIONS: Using the recent availability of genome sequences to all human-infective Plasmodium spp. parasites and a method of expressing Plasmodium proteins in a secreted functional form, an antigen panel has been compiled that will be useful to determine exposure to these parasites.
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Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/sangre , Antígenos de Protozoos/inmunología , Plasmodium falciparum/inmunología , Plasmodium vivax/inmunología , Proteínas Protozoarias/inmunología , Adulto , Antígenos de Protozoos/genética , Área Bajo la Curva , Western Blotting , Reacciones Cruzadas , Electroforesis en Gel de Poliacrilamida , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Modelos Logísticos , Malaria/diagnóstico , Malaria/inmunología , Malaui , Malasia , Plasmodium knowlesi/genética , Plasmodium knowlesi/inmunología , Plasmodium malariae/genética , Plasmodium malariae/inmunología , Plasmodium ovale/genética , Plasmodium ovale/inmunología , Proteínas Protozoarias/genética , Curva ROC , Proteínas Recombinantes/inmunología , Suecia , ViajeRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Antibodies against merozoite antigens are key components of malaria immunity. The naturally acquired antibody response to these antigens is generally considered short-lived; however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Prospective studies of travellers with different levels of prior exposure, returning to malaria-free countries with Plasmodium infection, offer a unique opportunity to investigate the kinetics and composition of the antibody response after natural infection. METHODS: Adults diagnosed with P. falciparum malaria in Stockholm, Sweden (20 likely malaria naïve and 41 with repeated previous exposure during residency in sub-Saharan Africa) were sampled at diagnosis and 10 days and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Total and subclass-specific IgG responses to P. falciparum merozoite antigens (AMA-1, MSP-119, MSP-2, MSP-3, and RH5) and tetanus toxoid were measured by multiplex bead-based immunoassays and ELISA. Mathematical modelling was used to estimate the exposure-dependent longevity of antibodies and antibody-secreting cells (ASCs). RESULTS: A majority of individuals mounted detectable antibody responses towards P. falciparum merozoite antigens at diagnosis; however, the magnitude and breadth were greater in individuals with prior exposure. In both exposure groups, antibody levels increased rapidly for 2 weeks and decayed thereafter. Previously exposed individuals maintained two- to ninefold greater antibody levels throughout the 1-year follow-up. The half-lives of malaria-specific long-lived ASCs, responsible for maintaining circulating antibodies, ranged from 1.8 to 3.7 years for merozoite antigens and were considerably short compared to tetanus-specific ASCs. Primary infected individuals did acquire a long-lived component of the antibody response; however, the total proportion of long-lived ASCs generated in response to infection was estimated not to exceed 10%. In contrast, previously exposed individuals maintained substantially larger numbers of long-lived ASCs (10-56% of total ASCs). CONCLUSION: The short-lived nature of the naturally acquired antibody response, to all tested merozoite antigens, following primary malaria infection can be attributed to a combination of a poor acquisition and short half-life of long-lived ASCs. Greater longevity is acquired with repeated infections and can be explained by the maintenance of larger numbers of long-lived ASCs. These insights advance our understanding of naturally acquired malaria immunity and will guide strategies for further development of both vaccines and serological tools to monitor exposure.
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Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/inmunología , Antígenos de Protozoos/inmunología , Memoria Inmunológica/inmunología , Malaria Falciparum/inmunología , Inmunidad Adaptativa/inmunología , Adulto , Animales , Femenino , Humanos , Merozoítos/inmunología , Plasmodium falciparum/inmunología , Estudios Prospectivos , SueciaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Assessments of the epidemiology of malaria over time are needed to understand changes in transmission and guide control and elimination strategies. METHODS: A longitudinal population study was established in 1985 in Nyamisati village in the Rufiji River Delta, Tanzania. A physician and research team lived in the village 1984-2000. Parasite prevalence by microscopy and two PCR methods, spleen rates and haemoglobin levels were measured in repeated cross-sectional surveys between 1985 and 2010. Passive surveillance of malaria cases was maintained until end 1999. Bed nets were distributed after the surveys 1993, 1999 and 2010. RESULTS: In 1985, overall parasite prevalence by microscopy was 70% (90% in children ages two to nine years). The prevalence decreased gradually by microscopy (38.9% 1994, 26.7% 1999) and msp2-PCR (58.7% 1994, 44.8% 1999), whereas real-time PCR prevalence remained higher throughout the 1990s (69.4% 1994, 64.8% 1999). In 2010, parasite prevalence was 17.8% by real-time PCR and 16.3% by msp2-PCR, and estimated to 4.8% by microscopy. Spleen rates in children ages two to nine years decreased earlier than parasite prevalence, from >75 to 42% in the 1980s, to nil during the 1990s. The prevalence of severe and moderate anaemia decreased from 41.1 to 13.1%. No deaths at the time of acute malaria were recorded when the research team lived in the village. CONCLUSIONS: A marked decline in malaria transmission was observed over 25 years. The decrease was detected after the arrival of the research team and continued gradually both before and after distribution of bed nets. Spleen rates and microscopy identified early changes when transmission was still intense, whereas real-time PCR was a more sensitive metric when transmission was reduced. The study provides historical data on malaria within a closely monitored rural village and contributes to the understanding of changing epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/transmisión , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios Transversales , Hemoglobinas/análisis , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Microscopía , Persona de Mediana Edad , Plasmodium/aislamiento & purificación , Prevalencia , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , Bazo/patología , Tanzanía/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Malaria transmission intensity affects the development of naturally acquired immunity to malaria. An absolute correlate measure of protection against malaria is lacking. However, antibody-mediated functions against Plasmodium falciparum correlate with protection against malaria. In children, antibody-mediated functions against P. falciparum decline with reduced exposure. It is unclear whether adults maintain antibody-mediated functions as malaria transmission declines. This study assessed antibody-dependent respiratory burst (ADRB) in individuals from an area with declining malaria transmission. In an age-matched analysis, we compare ADRB activity during high versus low malaria transmission periods. Age significantly predicted higher ADRB activity in the high (p < 0.001) and low (p < 0.001) malaria transmission periods. ADRB activity was higher during the high compared to the low malaria transmission period in older children and adults. Only older adults during the high malaria transmission period had their median ADRB activity above the ADRB cut-off. Ongoing P. falciparum infection influenced ADRB activity during the low (p = 0.01) but not the high (p = 0.29) malaria transmission period. These findings propose that naturally acquired immunity to P. falciparum is affected in children and adults as malaria transmission declines, implying that vaccines will be necessary to induce and maintain protection against malaria.
RESUMEN
Natural immunity to malaria develops over time with repeated malaria episodes, but protection against severe malaria and immune regulation limiting immunopathology, called tolerance, develops more rapidly. Here, we comprehensively profile the blood immune system in patients, with or without prior malaria exposure, over 1 year after acute symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Using a data-driven analysis approach to describe the immune landscape over time, we show that a dampened inflammatory response is associated with reduced γδ T cell expansion, early expansion of CD16+ monocytes, and parasite-specific antibodies of IgG1 and IgG3 isotypes. This also coincided with reduced parasitemia and duration of hospitalization. Our data indicate that antibody-mediated phagocytosis during the blood stage infection leads to lower parasitemia and less inflammatory response with reduced γδ T cell expansion. This enhanced control and reduced inflammation points to a potential mechanism on how tolerance is established following repeated malaria exposure.
Asunto(s)
Malaria Falciparum , Malaria , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G , Parasitemia , Plasmodium falciparum , Análisis de SistemasRESUMEN
Strengthening malaria surveillance is a key intervention needed to reduce the global disease burden. Reliable serological markers of recent malaria exposure could improve current surveillance methods by allowing for accurate estimates of infection incidence from limited data. We studied the IgG antibody response to 111 Plasmodium falciparum proteins in 65 adult travellers followed longitudinally after a natural malaria infection in complete absence of re-exposure. We identified a combination of five serological markers that detect exposure within the previous three months with >80% sensitivity and specificity. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the antibody kinetics and determined that responses informative of recent exposure display several distinct characteristics: rapid initial boosting and decay, less inter-individual variation in response kinetics, and minimal persistence over time. Such serological exposure markers could be incorporated into routine malaria surveillance to guide efforts for malaria control and elimination.
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Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/inmunología , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/inmunología , Plasmodium falciparum/inmunología , Proteínas Protozoarias/inmunología , Adulto , Formación de Anticuerpos/inmunología , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios de Cohortes , Epítopos/inmunología , Femenino , Fluorescencia , Humanos , Lactante , Kenia/epidemiología , Cinética , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Biológicos , Curva ROC , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Memory B cells (MBCs) are believed to be important for the maintenance of immunity to malaria, and these cells need to be explored in the context of different parasite antigens and their breadth and kinetics after natural infections. However, frequencies of antigen-specific MBCs are low in peripheral blood, limiting the number of antigens that can be studied, especially when small blood volumes are available. Here, we developed a multiplexed reversed B-cell FluoroSpot assay capable of simultaneously detecting MBCs specific for the four Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage antigens, MSP-119, MSP-2, MSP-3 and AMA-1. We used the assay to study the kinetics of the MBC response after an acute episode of malaria and up to one year following treatment in travelers returning to Sweden from sub-Saharan Africa. We show that the FluoroSpot assay can detect MBCs to all four merozoite antigens in the same well, and that the breadth and kinetics varied between individuals. We further found that individuals experiencing a primary infection could mount and maintain parasite-specific MBCs to a similar extent as previously exposed adults, already after a single infection. We conclude that the multiplexed B-cell FluoroSpot is a powerful tool for assessing antigen-specific MBC responses to several antigens simultaneously, and that the kinetics of MBC responses against merozoite surface antigens differ over the course of one year. These findings contribute to the understanding of acquisition and maintenance of immune responses to malaria.
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Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/análisis , Linfocitos B/inmunología , Ensayo de Immunospot Ligado a Enzimas/métodos , Memoria Inmunológica/inmunología , Malaria Falciparum/inmunología , Adulto , Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/inmunología , Antígenos de Protozoos/inmunología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , MerozoítosRESUMEN
Humoral immunity is important in limiting clinical disease in malaria, yet the longitudinal B cell response to infection remains unclear. We performed a 1-year prospective study in patients treated for acute P. falciparum malaria for the first time, or with previous exposure to the disease. Using an unbiased exploratory approach with mass cytometry, followed by targeted flow cytometry, we found that ~80% of mature B cells that proliferated in response to acute infection expressed CD11c. Only ~40% of CD11c+ B cells displayed an atypical B cell phenotype, with the remaining cells primarily made up of activated- and resting memory B cells. The CD11c+ B cells expanded rapidly following infection, with previous exposure to malaria resulting in a significantly larger increase compared to individuals with primary infection. This was attributed to an expansion of switched CD11c+ B cells that was absent in primary infected individuals. The rate of contraction of the CD11c+ B cell compartment was independent of previous exposure to malaria and displayed a slow decay with a half-life of ~300 days. Collectively, these results identify CD11c as a marker of B cells responding to malaria and further highlight differences in primary- and secondary B cell responses during infection.
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Subgrupos de Linfocitos B/inmunología , Linfocitos B/inmunología , Antígeno CD11c/inmunología , Malaria/inmunología , Adulto , Anciano , Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/sangre , Anticuerpos Antiprotozoarios/inmunología , Femenino , Citometría de Flujo/métodos , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Memoria Inmunológica/inmunología , Malaria Falciparum/inmunología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Plasmodium falciparum , Estudios Prospectivos , Suecia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
A reduction in the global burden of malaria over the past two decades has encouraged efforts for regional malaria elimination. Despite the need to target all Plasmodium species, current focus is mainly directed towards Plasmodium falciparum, and to a lesser extent P. vivax. There is a substantial lack of data on both global and local transmission patterns of the neglected malaria parasites P. malariae and P. ovale spp. We used a species-specific real-time PCR assay targeting the Plasmodium 18s rRNA gene to evaluate temporal trends in the prevalence of all human malaria parasites over a 22-year period in a rural village in Tanzania.We tested 2897 blood samples collected in five cross-sectional surveys conducted between 1994 and 2016. Infections with P. falciparum, P. malariae, and P. ovale spp. were detected throughout the study period, while P. vivax was not detected. Between 1994 and 2010, we found a more than 90% reduction in the odds of infection with all detected species. The odds of P. falciparum infection was further reduced in 2016, while the odds of P. malariae and P. ovale spp. infection increased 2- and 6-fold, respectively, compared to 2010. In 2016, non-falciparum species occurred more often as mono-infections. The results demonstrate the persistent transmission of P. ovale spp., and to a lesser extent P. malariae despite a continued decline in P. falciparum transmission. This illustrates that the transmission patterns of the non-falciparum species do not necessarily follow those of P. falciparum, stressing the need for attention towards non-falciparum malaria in Africa. Malaria elimination will require a better understanding of the epidemiology of P. malariae and P. ovale spp. and improved tools for monitoring the transmission of all Plasmodium species, with a particular focus towards identifying asymptomatic carriers of infection and designing appropriate interventions to enhance malaria control.
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Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/parasitología , Plasmodium falciparum/fisiología , Plasmodium malariae/fisiología , Plasmodium ovale/fisiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , ADN Protozoario/genética , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Malaria/transmisión , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium falciparum/aislamiento & purificación , Plasmodium malariae/genética , Plasmodium malariae/aislamiento & purificación , Plasmodium ovale/genética , Plasmodium ovale/aislamiento & purificación , Prevalencia , ARN Ribosómico 18S/genética , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , Tanzanía/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Accelerated cellular aging and reduced lifespan have recently been shown in birds chronically infected with malaria parasites. Whether malaria infection also affects cellular aging in humans has not been reported. Here, we assessed the effect of a single acute Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection on cellular aging dynamics in travelers prospectively followed over one year in Sweden. DNA and RNA were extracted from venous blood collected at the time of admission and repeatedly up to one year. Telomere length was measured using real-time quantitative PCR, while telomerase activity and CDKN2A expression were measured by reverse transcriptase (RT)-qPCR. Our results show that acute malaria infection affects cellular aging as reflected by elevated levels of CDKN2A expression, lower telomerase activity, and substantial telomere shortening during the first three months postinfection. After that CDKN2A expression declined, telomerase activity increased and telomere length was gradually restored over one year, reflecting that cellular aging was reversed. These findings demonstrate that malaria infection affects cellular aging and the underlying cellular mechanism by which pathogens can affect host cellular aging and longevity need to be elucidated. Our results urge the need to investigate whether repeated malaria infections have more pronounced and long-lasting effects on cellular aging and lifespan (similarly to what was observed in birds) in populations living in malaria endemic areas.
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Malaria/patología , Adulto , Anciano , Senescencia Celular , Femenino , Humanos , Longevidad , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Telomerasa/genética , Telómero/metabolismoRESUMEN
A common helper-like innate lymphoid precursor (CHILP) restricted to the innate lymphoid cells (ILC) lineage has been recently characterized. While specific requirements of transcription factors for CHILPs development has been partially described, their ability to sense cytokines and react to peripheral inflammation remains unaddressed. Here, we found that systemic increase in Flt3L levels correlated with the expansion of Lineage (Lin)negα4ß7+ precursors in the adult murine bone marrow. Expanded Linnegα4ß7+ precursors were bona fide CHILPs as seen by their ability to differentiate into all helper ILCs subsets but cNK in vivo. Interestingly, Flt3L-expanded CHILPs transferred into lymphopenic mice preferentially reconstituted the small intestine. While we did not observe changes in serum Flt3L during DSS-induced colitis in mice or plasma from inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients, elevated Flt3L levels were detected in acute malaria patients. Interestingly, while CHILP numbers were stable during the course of DSS-induced colitis, they expanded following increased serum Flt3L levels in malaria-infected mice, hence suggesting a role of the Flt3L-ILC axis in malaria. Collectively, our results indicate that Flt3L expands CHILPs in the bone marrow, which might be associated with specific inflammatory conditions.
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Inmunidad Innata/genética , Subgrupos Linfocitarios/metabolismo , Células Progenitoras Linfoides/metabolismo , Proteínas de la Membrana/genética , Animales , Biomarcadores , Células de la Médula Ósea/metabolismo , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Humanos , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/genética , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/inmunología , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/metabolismo , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/patología , Integrinas/metabolismo , Subgrupos Linfocitarios/inmunología , Células Progenitoras Linfoides/inmunología , Melanoma Experimental , Proteínas de la Membrana/sangre , Proteínas de la Membrana/metabolismo , Ratones , Neoplasias/genética , Neoplasias/inmunología , Neoplasias/metabolismoRESUMEN
The rapid clearance of malaria parasite DNA from circulation has widely been accepted as a fact without being systemically investigated. We assessed the persistence of parasite DNA in travelers treated for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a malaria-free area. Venous blood was collected at the time of admission and prospectively up to one year. DNA and RNA were extracted and analyzed using species-specific and gametocyte-specific real-time PCR as well as merozoite surface protein 2 (msp2)-PCR. In 31 successfully treated individuals, asexual parasites were seen by microscopy until two days after treatment, whereas parasite DNA was detected by msp2- and species-specific PCR up to days 31 and 42, respectively. Statistical modelling predicted 26% (±0·05 SE) species-specific PCR positivity until day 40 and estimated 48days for all samples to become PCR negative. Gametocytes were detected by microscopy and PCR latest two days after treatment. CT values correlated well with microscopy-defined parasite densities before but not after treatment started. These results reveal that PCR positivity can persist several weeks after treatment without evidence of viable sexual or asexual parasites, indicating that PCR may overestimate parasite prevalence after treatment.
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Antígenos de Protozoos/genética , Malaria Falciparum/diagnóstico , Malaria Falciparum/genética , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Proteínas Protozoarias/genética , Animales , Antígenos de Protozoos/aislamiento & purificación , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Plasmodium falciparum/aislamiento & purificación , Plasmodium falciparum/patogenicidad , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa/métodos , Proteínas Protozoarias/aislamiento & purificaciónRESUMEN
Serology has become an increasingly important tool for the surveillance of a wide range of infectious diseases. It has been particularly useful to monitor malaria transmission in elimination settings where existing metrics such as parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical cases are less sensitive. Seroconversion rates, based on antibody prevalence to Plasmodium falciparum asexual blood-stage antigens, provide estimates of transmission intensity that correlate with entomological inoculation rates but lack precision in settings where seroprevalence is still high. Here we present a new and widely applicable method, based on cross-sectional data on individual antibody levels. We evaluate its use as a sero-surveillance tool in a Tanzanian setting with declining malaria prevalence. We find that the newly developed mathematical models produce more precise estimates of transmission patterns, are robust in high transmission settings and when sample sizes are small, and provide a powerful tool for serological evaluation of malaria transmission intensity.