RESUMEN
Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and agricultural nonpoint source pollution and carbon emissions are the main environmental problems limiting the development of the agricultural economy. This study takes the Yangtze River Delta as the research object and measures agricultural carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution in the study area from 2010 to 2020 respectively. The Tapio decoupling model is used to study types of decoupling between agricultural pollution and carbon reduction and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020, and the GM (1,1) model is used to predict the decoupling relationship between the agricultural environment and economic growth over the next ten years. The results show the following: (1) Agricultural COD emissions come mainly from livestock and poultry breeding, dropped from 1,130,120 tons in 2010 to 908,460 tons in 2020. Agricultural TN and TP emissions come mainly from plantations. Agricultural TN emissions dropped from 892,310 tons in 2010 to 788,020 tons in 2020. Agricultural TP emissions dropped from 149,590 tons in 2010 to130,770 tons in 2020. Agricultural carbon emissions dropped from 17,115,900 tons in 2010 to 15,786,600 tons in 2020, and come mainly from agricultural fertilizer and diesel fuel and pig breeding. (2) The decoupling effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Delta and economic growth has been in a long-term state, with negative decoupling occurring in a few regions, mainly in 2011, 2014 and 2020. (3) In the next ten years, except for 2021, when the coordination between agricultural pollution reduction and economic growth is poor, the two show good decoupling in the remaining years. Based on the results, this study makes recommendations on how to carry out comprehensive environmental management and promote green agricultural development.
Asunto(s)
Carbono , Desarrollo Económico , Animales , Porcinos , Carbono/análisis , Ríos , Agricultura , China , Dióxido de Carbono/análisisRESUMEN
The imbalance of regional development is one of the important obstacles for the implementation of regio-nal coordinated development strategy. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019, the regional coordinated development index system with five subsystems was constructed, including economic development, science and education, infrastructure, people's life, and resource and environment. With the help of GeoDa and ArcGIS software, we used measurement model of regional coordinated development and method of exploratory spatial data analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variations and internal correlation of various elements of regional coordinated development in the Yangtze River Delta. The results showed that, from the perspective of regional development, the coordination of regional development in the Yangtze River Delta had increased annually from 2010 to 2019. The level of economic development and science and education in Shanghai and Suzhou was ahead of other cities, while the development coordination of Northwest Anhui, Zhoushan and Huangshan was weaker than other cities. The order of average autocorrelation degree of each subsystem from high to low in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019 was people's life, economic development, resource and environment, science and education, and infrastructure. Among them, the global Moran's index (Moran I) of economic development and science and education subsystem showed a downward trend, while science and education subsystem showed no significant correlation. Moran I of infrastructure subsystem was mostly at the low level with a great fluctuation in different years. People's life had obvious spatial characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration. The global Moran I of resources and environment showed a pattern of "V" distribution. Economic development and science and education were the two factors most closely related to regional coordinated development.