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Histone deacetylases (HDACs) are responsible for the deacetylation of lysine residues in histone or non-histone substrates, leading to the regulation of many biological functions, such as gene transcription, translation and remodeling chromatin. Targeting HDACs for drug development is a promising way for human diseases, including cancers and heart diseases. In particular, numerous HDAC inhibitors have revealed potential clinical value for the treatment of cardiac diseases in recent years. In this review, we systematically summarize the therapeutic roles of HDAC inhibitors with different chemotypes on heart diseases. Additionally, we discuss the opportunities and challenges in developing HDAC inhibitors for the treatment of cardiac diseases.
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Cardiopatías , Neoplasias , Humanos , Histona Desacetilasas/metabolismo , Inhibidores de Histona Desacetilasas/farmacología , Inhibidores de Histona Desacetilasas/uso terapéutico , Inhibidores de Histona Desacetilasas/química , Cardiopatías/tratamiento farmacológico , Histonas , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Association between blood pressure (BP) and kidney function among the middle and old aged general population without hypertension remains unclear. METHODS: Participants aged ≥ 45 years, with complete data in 2011 and 2015 interviews of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS), and without pre-existing hypertension were included. Systolic BP (SBP) was categorized as low (< 120 mmHg), medium (120-129 mmHg), and high (120-139 mmHg). Diastolic BP (DBP) was categorized as low (< 60 mmHg), medium (60-74 mmHg), and high (75-89 mmHg). Pulse pressure (PP) was categorized as normal (< 60 mmHg) and high (≥ 60 mmHg). The outcome was defined as rapid decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR, decline ≥ 4 ml/min/1.73 m2/year). BP combination was designed according to the category of SBP and PP. The association between BP components, types of BP combination, and the risk of rapid decline of eGFR was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models, respectively. Age-stratified analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Of 4,534 participants included, 695(15.3%) individuals were recognized as having rapid decline of eGFR. High PP[odds ratio(OR) = 1.34, 95%confidence interval(CI) 1.02-1.75], low SBP (OR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.03-1.59), and high SBP (OR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.02-1.71) were significantly associated with the risk of eGFR decline. Low SBP were associated with 65% increment of the risk of eGFR decline among participants aged < 55 years. The combination of high SBP and high PP (OR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.27-2.54) and the combination of low SBP and high PP (OR = 3.07, 95% CI 1.24-7.58) were associated with the increased risk of eGFR decline among the middle and old aged general population. CONCLUSION: Single and combination of high PP and high SBP could be the risk indicators of eGFR decline among the middle and old aged general population.
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Hipertensión , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , Anciano , Presión Sanguínea/fisiología , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Riñón , Estudios Longitudinales , Persona de Mediana Edad , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/etiología , JubilaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The relationship between kidney function and hearing loss has long been recognized, but evidence of this association mostly comes from small observational studies or other populations. The aim of this study is to explore the association between reduced kidney function and hearing loss in a large population-based study among the middle-aged and elderly Chinese. METHODS: Data collected from the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2015 were used for analysis. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 12,508 participants aged 45 years and older. Hearing loss, the outcome of this study, was defined according to interviewees' responses to three survey questions related to hearing in the CHARLS. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was employed to assess kidney function, and participants were classified into three categories based on eGFR: ≥90, 60-89 and < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to adjust for potential confounders, including demographics, health-related behaviors, and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of self-reported hearing loss in the study population was 23.6%. Compared with participants with eGFR ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2, participants with eGFR of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.23) and eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.49) showed increased risk of hearing loss after adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced kidney function is independently associated with hearing loss. Testing for hearing should be included in the integrated management of patients with chronic kidney disease.
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Pérdida Auditiva , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , China/epidemiología , Correlación de Datos , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Tasa de Filtración Glomerular , Pérdida Auditiva/diagnóstico , Pérdida Auditiva/epidemiología , Pérdida Auditiva/etiología , Pruebas Auditivas/métodos , Humanos , Pruebas de Función Renal/métodos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/diagnóstico , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/fisiopatología , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
This paper examines long-term health consequences of early-life food deprivation across late-life health indicators. Our analysis relies on retrospective data of hunger drawn from CHARLS - a nationally representative survey of residents ages 45 and over in Continental China. The survey accurately measured hunger episodes in childhood. Exposure to hunger early in life is found to increase the probability of being overweight, having difficulty with ADLs/IADLs and depression in old age. The adverse cognitive impacts of hunger are confined to women due to gender disparity in nutrition and educational opportunities. We find gender-specific interaction effect between hunger episodes and sibling sex composition.
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Blood biomarkers provide critical information about the health of older populations, especially in large developing countries where self-reports of health are often inaccurate due to lack of access to health care. However, it is very difficult to collect blood samples in representative population surveys in such countries. The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a nationally representative study of middle-aged and older Chinese, represents one of the first efforts to include blood biomarkers in a nationally representative survey of China. In the 2015 wave of CHARLS, 13,013 respondents located in 150 counties around China donated whole blood, which was assayed on a range of indicators. Here we describe the process of the sample collection, transportation, storage, and analysis and present basic statistics.
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Biomarcadores/sangre , Recolección de Muestras de Sangre/métodos , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , China , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To compare and validate neurocognitive tests in the Harmonized Cognitive Assessment Protocol (HCAP) for the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), and to identify appropriate tests to be administered in future waves of CHARLS. METHODS: We recruited 825 individuals from the CHARLS sample and 766 subjects from hospitals in six provinces and cities in China. All participants were administered the HCAP-neurocognitive tests, and their informants were interviewed regarding the respondents' functional status. Trained clinicians administered the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (CDR) to assess the respondents' cognitive status independently. RESULTS: The testing protocol took an average of 58 minutes to complete. Refusal rates for tests of general cognition, episodic memory, and language were less than 10%. All neurocognitive test scores significantly correlated with the CDR global score (correlation coefficients ranged from 0.139 to 0.641). The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) - telephone interview for cognitive status (TICS), community screening instrument for dementia (CSI-D) for respondent, episodic memory and language tests each accounted for more than 20% of the variance in global CDR score (p < 0.001) in bivariate tests. In the CHARLS subsample, age and education were associated with neuropsychological performance across most cognitive domains, and with functional status. CONCLUSION: A brief set of the CHARLS-HCAP neurocognitive tests are feasible and valid to be used in the CHARLS sample and hospital samples. It could be applied in the future waves of the CHARLS study, and it allows estimating the prevalence of dementia in China through the population-based CHARLS.
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Envejecimiento/psicología , Cognición , Demencia/diagnóstico , Pruebas de Estado Mental y Demencia , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , China , Trastornos del Conocimiento/diagnóstico , Trastornos del Conocimiento/psicología , Demencia/psicología , Femenino , Humanos , Entrevistas como Asunto/métodos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Jubilación , TeléfonoRESUMEN
We document the recent profile of health insurance and health care among mid-aged and older Chinese using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study conducted in 2011. Overall health insurance coverage is about 93%. Multivariate regressions show that respondents with lower income as measured by per capita expenditure have a lower chance of being insured, as do the less-educated, older, and divorced/widowed women and rural-registered people. Premiums and reimbursement rates of health insurance vary significantly by schemes. Inpatient reimbursement rates for urban people increase with total cost to a plateau of 60%; rural people receive much less. Demographic characteristics such as age, education, marriage status, per capita expenditure, and self-reported health status are not significantly associated with share of out-of-pocket cost after controlling community effects. For health service use, we find large gaps that vary across health insurance plans, especially for inpatient service. People with access to urban health insurance plans are more likely to use health services. In general, Chinese people have easy access to median low-level medical facilities. It is also not difficult to access general hospitals or specialized hospitals, but there exists better access to healthcare facilities in urban areas. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/economía , Cobertura del Seguro/estadística & datos numéricos , Seguro de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano , China , Femenino , Gastos en Salud , Encuestas Epidemiológicas , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
We examined migration in China using the 2005 inter-census population survey, in which migrants were registered at both their place of original (hukou) residence and at their destination. We find evidence that the estimated number of internal migrants in China is extremely sensitive to the enumeration method. We estimate that the traditional destination-based survey method fails to account for more than a third of migrants found using comparable origin-based methods. The 'missing' migrants are disproportionately young, male, and holders of rural hukou. We find that origin-based methods are more effective at capturing migrants who travel short distances for short periods, whereas destination-based methods are more effective when entire households have migrated and no remaining family members are located at the hukou location. We conclude with a set of policy recommendations for the design of population surveys in countries with large migrant populations.
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Dinámica Poblacional/estadística & datos numéricos , Migrantes/estadística & datos numéricos , Censos , China , Demografía , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Proyectos de Investigación , Factores Socioeconómicos , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
This paper analyzes the impact of widowhood on the health of mid-aged and older individuals in China using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data. Our results show that widowhood significantly increases the risk of depression, chronic diseases, and body pain while reducing cognitive function, sleeping time, and daily activity functions. The effects on depression and daily functions are immediate, that on chronic diseases is lagged, and the effects on cognitive function and sleeping hours persist over time. We find that rural widows are particularly vulnerable to negative health outcomes due to their weaker economic positions, for whom widowhood leads to more grandchild care responsibility and corresponding workforce and social withdrawals. Moreover, rural widows' income loss is not compensated by children, either by co-residence or financial transfers, leading to reduced living standards. Overall, our findings suggest that China needs to strengthen economic security for older people, especially among rural women, in order to avoid significant negative consequences of widowhood.
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OBJECTIVES: Although cognitive functioning is strongly associated with biological changes in the brain during the aging process, very little is known about the role of sociocultural differentials between the western and eastern parts of the world. We examined the associations between individual socioeconomic markers (e.g., education, household wealth) and contextual levels characteristics (e.g., urbanicity) with memory performance and memory decline over up to 8 years of follow-up in England and China. METHODS: The analytical samples included participants aged 50+ from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (n = 6,687) and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (n = 10,252). Mixed linear models were employed to examine the association between baseline individual socioeconomic markers (education, wealth) and contextual-level characteristics (urbanicity) on the change in memory over time. RESULTS: Our analyses showed that higher education and wealth were associated with better baseline memory in both England and China. Still, the impact of contextual-level characteristics such as urbanicity differed between the 2 countries. For English individuals, living in a rural area showed an advantage in memory, while the opposite pattern was observed in China. Memory decline appeared to be socioeconomically patterned by higher education, wealth, and urbanicity in China but not in England. DISCUSSION: Our findings highlight substantial socioeconomic and contextual inequity in memory performance in both England and China, as well as in the rate of memory decline primarily in China. Public health strategies for preventing memory decline should target the socioeconomic gaps at the individual and contextual levels to protect those particularly disadvantaged.
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Envejecimiento , Trastornos de la Memoria , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Factores Socioeconómicos , Envejecimiento/psicología , Inglaterra , ChinaRESUMEN
This paper documents the patterns and correlates of retirement in China using a nationally representative survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. After documenting stark differences in retirement ages between urban and rural residents, the paper shows that China's urban residents retire earlier than workers in many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and that rural residents continue to work until advanced ages. Differences in access to generous pensions and economic resources explain much of the urban-rural difference in retirement rates. The paper suggests that reducing disincentives created by China's Urban Employee Pension system, improving health status, providing childcare and elder care support may all facilitate longer working lives. Given spouse preferences for joint retirement, creating incentives for women to retire later may facilitate longer working lives for both men and women.
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Vaccination is the primary defense against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, especially among older adults and those with chronic conditions. Using a nationally representative sample of 12,900 participants from the fifth wave (2021-2022) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we examined the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination status and the determinants of vaccination hesitancy in Chinese adults aged 52 and older. By July/August 2022, 92.3% of the Chinese population aged 60 years and older had received at least one COVID-19 vaccination, 88.6% had completed the primary series and 72.4% had received a booster. Those aged 80 years and older had lower vaccination rates, with 71.9% and 46.7% completing the primary series and booster shots, respectively. These statistics represent the situation before China ended the Zero-COVID policy in November 2022 because vaccination stagnated between July/August and November 2022. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that belonging to the oldest age groups (individuals aged 70 years and older and especially those aged 80 years and older) as well as being female and unmarried, residing in urban areas, being functionally dependent and having chronic conditions meant that these individuals were less likely to receive COVID-19 vaccines. Our regression analysis results were corroborated by self-reported reasons for nonvaccination. Vaccination hesitancy probably contributed to excessive mortality among vulnerable populations after China ceased its Zero-COVID policy. Our study provides important lessons on how to balance containment efforts with vaccination and treatment measures, as well as highlighting the need to clarify the side effects and contraindications of vaccines early on.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Masculino , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/uso terapéutico , Estudios Longitudinales , SARS-CoV-2 , China/epidemiología , VacunaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: China's recent growth in income has been unequally distributed, resulting in an unusually rapid retreat from relative income equality, which has impacted negatively on health services access. There exists a significant gap between health care utilization in rural and urban areas and inequality in health care access due to differences in socioeconomic status is increasing. We investigate inequality in service utilization among the mid-aged and elderly, with a special attention of health insurance. METHODS: This paper measures the income-related inequality and horizontal inequity in inpatient and outpatient health care utilization among the mid-aged and elderly in two provinces of China. The data for this study come from the pilot survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in Gansu and Zhejiang. Concentration Index (CI) and its decomposition approach were deployed to reflect inequality degree and explore the source of these inequalities. RESULTS: There is a pro-rich inequality in the probability of receiving health service utilization in Gansu (CI outpatient = 0.067; CI inpatient = 0.011) and outpatient for Zhejiang (CI = 0.016), but a pro-poor inequality in inpatient utilization in Zhejiang (CI = -0.090). All the Horizontal Inequity Indices (HI) are positive. Income was the dominant factor in health care utilization for out-patient in Gansu (40.3 percent) and Zhejiang (55.5 percent). The non-need factors' contribution to inequity in Gansu and Zhejiang outpatient care had the same pattern across the two provinces, with the factors evenly split between pro-rich and pro-poor biases. The insurance schemes were strongly pro-rich, except New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in Zhejiang. CONCLUSIONS: For the middle-aged and elderly, there is a strong pro-rich inequality of health care utilization in both provinces. Income was the most important factor in outpatient care in both provinces, but access to inpatient care was driven by a mix of income, need and non-need factors that significantly differed across and within the two provinces. These differences were the result of different levels of health care provision, different out-of-pocket expenses for health care and different access to and coverage of health insurance for rural and urban families. To address health care utilization inequality, China will need to reduce the unequal distribution of income and expand the coverage of its health insurance schemes.
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Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Disparidades en Atención de Salud , Clase Social , Anciano , Envejecimiento , China , Femenino , Encuestas de Atención de la Salud , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
Based on five waves of CHARLS data from 2011 to 2020 with expenditure imputations, we estimate living standards and poverty rates among older Chinese and study factors associated with consumption and poverty. Our results indicate that in the 2010s, China's poverty profile among older people was no longer characterized by regional concentration, such as the case in the first decades following China's economic reforms. Rather, old-age poverty is dispersed and varies mainly by demographics. Rural-urban differences, low education, and older age are the main factors associated with poverty. In the past decade, people of these characteristics enjoyed substantially more reductions in poverty, but they remain chief predictors. After controlling for demographics, consumption grew by 72.9 %, and the poverty rate declined by 59.2 % from 2011 to 2020, revealing remarkable progress. By interacting marital status with sex and urban/rural residence, we identify gaps in older people's economic support and find that the never-married urban people, widowed and divorced women, especially divorced rural women are the most at risk for poverty. Our research implies that future poverty alleviation policies should have more precise targeting.
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BACKGROUND: Air pollution disparities by socioeconomic status (SES) are well documented for the United States, with most literature indicating an inverse relationship (i.e., higher concentrations for lower-SES populations). Few studies exist for China, a country accounting for 26% of global premature deaths from ambient air pollution. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to test the relationship between ambient air pollution exposures and SES in China. METHODS: We combined estimated year 2015 annual-average ambient levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter [PM ≤2.5µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] with national demographic information. Pollution estimates were derived from a national empirical model for China at 1-km spatial resolution; demographic estimates were derived from national gridded gross national product (GDP) per capita at 1-km resolution, and (separately) a national representative sample of 21,095 individuals from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2015 cohort. Our use of global data on population density and cohort data on where people live helped avoid the spatial imprecision found in publicly available census data for China. We quantified air pollution disparities among individual's rural-to-urban migration status; SES factors (education, occupation, and income); and minority status. We compared results using three approaches to SES measurement: individual SES score, community-averaged SES score, and gridded GDP per capita. RESULTS: Ambient NO2 and PM2.5 levels were higher for higher-SES populations than for lower-SES population, higher for long-standing urban residents than for rural-to-urban migrant populations, and higher for the majority ethnic group (Han) than for the average across nine minority groups. For the three SES measurements (individual SES score, community-averaged SES score, gridded GDP per capita), a 1-interquartile range higher SES corresponded to higher concentrations of 6-9 µg/m3 NO2 and 3-6 µg/m3 PM2.5; average concentrations for the highest and lowest 20th percentile of SES differed by 41-89% for NO2 and 12-25% for PM2.5. This pattern held in rural and urban locations, across geographic regions, across a wide range of spatial resolution, and for modeled vs. measured pollution concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple analyses here reveal that in China, ambient NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations are higher for high-SES than for low-SES individuals; these results are robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. Our findings are consistent with the idea that in China's current industrialization and urbanization stage, economic development is correlated with both SES and air pollution. To our knowledge, our study provides the most comprehensive picture to date of ambient air pollution disparities in China; the results differ dramatically from results and from theories to explain conditions in the United States. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9872.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , China , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Material Particulado/análisis , Clase Social , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Determinants of mortality may depend on the time and place where they are examined. China provides an important context in which to study the determinants of mortality at older ages because of its unique social, economic, and epidemiological circumstances. This study uses a nationally representative sample of persons in China to determine how socioeconomic characteristics, early-life conditions, biological and physical functioning, and disease burden predict 4-year mortality after age 60. METHODS: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We employed a series of Cox proportional hazard models based on exact survival time to predict 4-year all-cause mortality between the 2011 baseline interview and the 2015 interview. RESULTS: We found that rural residence, poor physical functioning ability, uncontrolled hypertension, diabetes, cancer, a high level of systemic inflammation, and poor kidney functioning are strong predictors of mortality among older Chinese. DISCUSSION: The results show that the objectively measured indicators of physical functioning and biomarkers are independent and strong predictors of mortality risk after accounting for several additional self-reported health measures, confirming the value of incorporating biological and performance measurements in population health surveys to help understand health changes and aging processes that lead to mortality. This study also highlights the importance of social and historical context in the study of old-age mortality.
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Envejecimiento , Enfermedad Crónica , Costo de Enfermedad , Mortalidad , Rendimiento Físico Funcional , Anciano , Envejecimiento/etnología , Envejecimiento/fisiología , Envejecimiento/psicología , China/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crónica/clasificación , Enfermedad Crónica/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crónica/mortalidad , Femenino , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Factores de Riesgo , Factores SocioeconómicosRESUMEN
China has a lower rate of vaccination among older adults and those who have chronic conditions and functional disabilities. As China has recently ended the zero-COVID policy, understanding the factors behind low vaccination rates among these vulnerable populations can inform immediate policy priorities to save lives for China and offer lessons for the world at large. We used the fifth wave (2021-22) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which represented mainland Chinese 45 and older. Vaccination status was updated in the summer of 2022, reflecting the current situation because very few additional vaccinations were administered afterward. For those who were unvaccinated, self-reported reasons were recorded. Using regression analysis, we investigated the determinants of non-vaccination, including demographics, functional status, and chronic conditions. In addition, two-thirds of the respondents had their vaccination status recorded twice in 2021 and 2022, allowing us to examine changes in vaccination rates in the recent year, zeroing in on the effects of the government's most recent vaccination campaign. Finally, we corroborated the regression results using self-reported reasons for non-vaccination in both years. A total of 12900 participants were included in the analysis. By the summer of 2022, the weighted COVID-19 vaccination rate among older Chinese people (≥60 years old) was 92.3%, with 88.8% having completed the primary series and 72.7% having received boosters. Only 72.0% of the oldest-old (≥80 years old) had completed the primary series, and 47.1% had had boosters. Regression analysis showed that participants who were older, female, unmarried, registered with urban Hukou residence, functionally dependent, and comorbid with chronic conditions were less likely to receive COVID-19 vaccines. A significant increase in vaccination rates among ethnic minorities, older adults, rural residents, and those with chronic conditions and functional dependency was observed in the year after the winter of 2021 when the government started to push for universal vaccination. The self-reported reasons for non-vaccination in 2022 were contraindications (48%), advanced ages/frailty/health conditions (21%), problems in accessing vaccines (18%), concerns about side effects or efficacy (9%), and having never heard of COVID-19 vaccine (6%). Nevertheless, as China has ended the zero-COVID policy, many older people, especially the oldest and those with chronic conditions and disabilities, have not yet been fully vaccinated with the primary series or booster doses, exposing them to the danger of infection. Therefore, health authorities should immediately abandon the previous practice of refusing to vaccinate those with chronic conditions, change people's mistaken perceptions of contraindications and side effects, and improve access to vaccines. Most importantly, China should strengthen public trust in vaccines by making information transparent regarding the vaccine's protection rates and side effects.
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BACKGROUND: An ageing population coupled with an increase in morbidity places a considerable burden on health and social care systems. The aim of our study was to estimate the trends in functional dependency and project future care needs for older people in China. METHODS: We analysed data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, a nationally representative survey of a cohort of Chinese people (aged ≥45 years) from 150 counties or districts and 450 villages or urban communities across 28 provinces, who were selected by use of multistage stratified probability-proportionate-to-size sampling. The baseline survey was conducted in 2011 and follow-up surveys were conducted in 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020. We excluded people younger than 60 years or people who had missing variables on dependency in the five follow-up interviews. Three dependency levels were determined on the basis of activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs): any ADL items (level 1 dependency); any ADL items or difficulty cooking, shopping, or taking medications (level 2 dependency); and difficulty in any ADL or IADL items (level 3 dependency). The dependency rates were extrapolated to derive the number of people older than 60 years with dependency in China from 2011 to 2020. We used a regression model to project future changes and forecast the size of the older population with dependency between 2021 and 2030. FINDINGS: A total of 89 031 individuals across five waves completed the surveys, of whom 46 619 were eligible for inclusion. The prevalence of level 1 dependency among older Chinese adults declined from 11·7% (95% CI 10·6-12·8) in 2011 to 8·1% (7·5-8·7) in 2020. Level 2 and level 3 dependency also declined. The total number of older people requiring care in 2020 was 20·61 million (95% CI 19·01-22·20) with level 1 dependency, 36·33 million (34·27-38·40) with level 2 dependency, and 45·30 million (43·02-47·59) with level 3 dependency. Improved education, housing, and access to health care was associated with 41·84% of the decline in level 3 dependency prevalence between 2011 and 2020. By 2030, the projected dependency rates could decline to 8·04% for level 1 dependency, 13·28% for level 2 dependency, and 16·05% for level 3 dependency. Nonetheless, the cohort size will grow, resulting in more older Chinese people who need care (29·71 million [27·07-32·36] in level 1, 49·07 million [45·98-52·16] in level 2, and 59·32 million [55·94-62·70] in level 3) in 2030. By 2030, we estimate that 14·02 million more older Chinese people will need care than in 2020. INTERPRETATION: Rapid ageing of the population could offset the decline in dependency and result in a substantial increase in the population with complex care needs. Promoting healthy ageing and investing in an age-friendly environment are important in reducing care burdens in China. FUNDING: National Institute on Aging, Natural Science Foundation of China, China Medical Board. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.