A Novel Liver Metastasis Score for Patients Undergoing Surgical Resection of Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Multi-institutional Study.

BACKGROUND: Liver metastasis impacts survival in patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs); however, current guidelines lack consensus on post-resection surveillance and adjuvant therapy. A comprehensive risk stratification tool is needed to guide personalized management. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for liver metastasis risk after surgical resection of GEP-NETs that incorporates pathological factors and adjuvant therapy. METHODS: Patients with GEP-NETs who underwent surgical resection with curative intent at three major Chinese hospitals (2010-2022) were identified. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis identified independent risk factors of liver metastasis. The liver metastasis score (LMS) was developed using weighted risk factors and validated by tenfold cross-validation. RESULTS: Among the 724 patients included in the analytic cohort, liver metastasis occurred in 66 patients (9.1%) at a median of 36 months; patients with liver metastasis had a worse 5-year overall survival (no liver metastasis 63.6% vs. liver metastasis 95.8%; p < 0.001). Independent predictors were Ki-67 index (hazard ratio [HR] 10.36 for Ki-67 3-20%, HR 18.30 for Ki-67 >20%, vs. <3%), vascular invasion (HR 5.03), lymph node metastases (HR 2.24), and lack of adjuvant therapy (HR 3.03). The LMS demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-index 0.888) and stratified patients into low, intermediate, and high-risk relative to 5-year risk of liver metastasis: 2.9%, 20.8%, and 49.7%, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The novel LMS effectively predicted the risk of liver metastasis after surgical resection of GEP-NETs. This validated model can help guide personalized surveillance and adjuvant treatment strategies, potentially improving outcomes for high-risk patients.

Preoperative frailty as a key predictor of short- and long-term outcomes among octogenarians undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter comprehensive analysis.

BACKGROUND: When considering hepatectomy for elderly HCC patients, it's essential to assess surgical safety and survival benefits. This study investigated the impact of preoperative frailty, assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), on outcomes for octogenarians undergoing HCC hepatectomy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of octogenarians who had hepatectomy for HCC between 2010 and 2022 at 16 hepatobiliary centers was conducted. Patients were categorized as frail or non-frail based on preoperative CFS, with frailty defined as CFS ≥5. The primary endpoints were overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS), with perioperative outcomes as secondary endpoints. RESULTS: Among 240 octogenarians, 105 were characterized as being frail. Frail patients had a higher incidence of postoperative 30-day morbidity and postoperative 30-day and 90-day mortality versus non-frail patients. Meanwhile, 5-year OS, RFS and CSS among frail patients were lower compared with non-frail patients. Univariable and multivariable analysis revealed that preoperative frailty was an independent risk factor of postoperative 30-day morbidity (OR: 2.060), OS (HR: 2.384), RFS (HR: 2.190) and CSS (HR: 2.203). CONCLUSION: Preoperative frailty, as assessed by the CFS, was strongly associated with both short-term outcomes and long-term survival among octogenarians undergoing hepatectomy for HCC. Incorporating frailty assessment into the preoperative evaluation may help optimize patient selection and perioperative care.

Stratifying risk of failure to achieve textbook outcomes among patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter score validation study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The concept of textbook outcomes (TOs) has gained increased attention as a critical metric to assess the quality and success of outcomes following complex surgery. A simple yet effective scoring system was developed and validated to predict risk of not achieving textbook outcomes (non-TOs) following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: Using a multicenter prospectively collected database, risk factors associated with non-TO among patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC were identified. A predictive scoring system based on factors identified from multivariate regression analysis was used to risk stratify patients relative to non-TO. The score was developed using 70 % of the overall cohort and validated in the remaining 30 %. RESULTS: Among 3681 patients, 1458 (39.6 %) failied to experience a TO. Based on the derivation cohort, obesity, American Society of Anaesthesiologists score(ASA score), Child-Pugh grade, tumor size, and extent of hepatectomy were identified as independent predictors of non-TO. The scoring system ranged from 0 to 10 points. Patients were categorized into low (0-3 points), intermediate (4-6 points), and high risk (7-10 points) of non-TO. In the validation cohort, the predicted risk of developing non-TOs was 39.0 %, which closely matched the observed risk of 39.9 %. There were no differences among the predicted and observed risks within the different risk categories. CONCLUSIONS: A novel scoring system was able to predict risk of non-TO accurately following hepatectomy for HCC. The score may enable early identification of individuals at risk of adverse outcomes and inform surgical decision-making, and quality improvement initiatives.