Online availability of antibiotics from within the UK: shifting patterns from 2016 to 2023.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported a cross-sectional analysis of online pharmacy practices and processes. Since then, the demand for and context of online healthcare has changed. However, the current state of access to and usage of antibiotics obtained online remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to: (i) determine the legality of online pharmacies selling antibiotics in the UK; (ii) describe processes for obtaining antibiotics online; (iii) identify antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) and patient safety issues; and (iv) compare data with those obtained in 2016 to understand changes in context, and set priorities for targeted research in antibiotic access and usage. METHODS: Searches for 'buy antibiotics online' were conducted using 'Google' and 'Yahoo'. The first 10 websites with unique URL addresses for each were reviewed. Analyses were conducted on evidence of pharmacy registration, prescription requirement, whether choice was 'prescriber-driven' or 'consumer-driven', and whether information was required (allergies, comorbidities, pregnancy) or given (adverse effects) prior to purchase. RESULTS: Twenty unique URL addresses were analysed. Those evidencing UK location (n = 20; 100%) required a prescription and were appropriately registered. For 11 (55%) online pharmacies, decisions were initially consumer-driven for antibiotic choice, but not for dose or duration; contrasting with 2016 when for most (n = 16; 80%), decisions were consumer-driven for antibiotic choice, dose and quantity. CONCLUSIONS: Variation continues to exist in relation to antibiotic practices online. We make several key recommendations for lawmakers and stakeholders. Targeted research, improved public engagement, professional education and new best practice guidelines are urgently needed for online UK antibiotic suppliers.

Changing Patterns of Bloodstream Infections in the Community and Acute Care Across 2 Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Waves: A Retrospective Analysis Using Data Linkage.

BACKGROUND: We examined community- and hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (BSIs) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and non-COVID-19 patients across 2 epidemic waves. METHODS: We analyzed blood cultures of patients presenting to a London hospital group between January 2020 and February 2021. We reported BSI incidence, changes in sampling, case mix, healthcare capacity, and COVID-19 variants. RESULTS: We identified 1047 BSIs from 34 044 blood cultures, including 653 (62.4%) community-acquired and 394 (37.6%) hospital-acquired. Important pattern changes were seen. Community-acquired Escherichia coli BSIs remained below prepandemic level during COVID-19 waves, but peaked following lockdown easing in May 2020, deviating from the historical trend of peaking in August. The hospital-acquired BSI rate was 100.4 per 100 000 patient-days across the pandemic, increasing to 132.3 during the first wave and 190.9 during the second, with significant increase in elective inpatients. Patients with a hospital-acquired BSI, including those without COVID-19, experienced 20.2 excess days of hospital stay and 26.7% higher mortality, higher than reported in prepandemic literature. In intensive care, the BSI rate was 421.0 per 100 000 intensive care unit patient-days during the second wave, compared to 101.3 pre-COVID-19. The BSI incidence in those infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Alpha variant was similar to that seen with earlier variants. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic have impacted the patterns of community- and hospital-acquired BSIs, in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Factors driving the patterns are complex. Infection surveillance needs to consider key aspects of pandemic response and changes in healthcare practice.

Bacterial and Fungal Coinfection in Individuals With Coronavirus: A Rapid Review To Support COVID-19 Antimicrobial Prescribing.

BACKGROUND: To explore and describe the current literature surrounding bacterial/fungal coinfection in patients with coronavirus infection. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched using broad-based search criteria relating to coronavirus and bacterial coinfection. Articles presenting clinical data for patients with coronavirus infection (defined as SARS-1, MERS, SARS-CoV-2, and other coronavirus) and bacterial/fungal coinfection reported in English, Mandarin, or Italian were included. Data describing bacterial/fungal coinfections, treatments, and outcomes were extracted. Secondary analysis of studies reporting antimicrobial prescribing in SARS-CoV-2 even in absence of coinfection was performed. RESULTS: 1007 abstracts were identified. Eighteen full texts reporting bacterial/fungal coinfection were included. Most studies did not identify or report bacterial/fungal coinfection (85/140; 61%). Nine of 18 (50%) studies reported on COVID-19, 5/18 (28%) on SARS-1, 1/18 (6%) on MERS, and 3/18 (17%) on other coronaviruses. For COVID-19, 62/806 (8%) patients were reported as experiencing bacterial/fungal coinfection during hospital admission. Secondary analysis demonstrated wide use of broad-spectrum antibacterials, despite a paucity of evidence for bacterial coinfection. On secondary analysis, 1450/2010 (72%) of patients reported received antimicrobial therapy. No antimicrobial stewardship interventions were described. For non-COVID-19 cases, bacterial/fungal coinfection was reported in 89/815 (11%) of patients. Broad-spectrum antibiotic use was reported. CONCLUSIONS: Despite frequent prescription of broad-spectrum empirical antimicrobials in patients with coronavirus-associated respiratory infections, there is a paucity of data to support the association with respiratory bacterial/fungal coinfection. Generation of prospective evidence to support development of antimicrobial policy and appropriate stewardship interventions specific for the COVID-19 pandemic is urgently required.

Loss of p27 upregulates MnSOD in a STAT3-dependent manner, disrupts intracellular redox activity and enhances cell migration.

Cell migration is a dynamic process that is central to a variety of physiological functions as well as disease pathogenesis. The modulation of cell migration by p27 (officially known as CDKN1B) has been reported, but the exact mechanism(s) whereby p27 interacts with downstream effectors that control cell migration have not been elucidated. By systematically comparing p27(+/+) mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) with genetically ablated p27(-/-) MEFs using wound-healing, transwell and time-lapse microscopic analyses, we provide direct evidence that p27 inhibits both directional and random cell migration. Identical results were obtained with normal and cancer epithelial cells using complementary knockdown and overexpression approaches. Additional studies revealed that overexpression of manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD, officially known as SOD2) and reduced intracellular oxidation played a key role in increased cell migration in p27-deficient cells. Furthermore, we identified signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) as the transcription factor responsible for p27-regulated MnSOD expression, which was further mediated by ERK- and ATF1-dependent transactivation of the cAMP response element (CRE) within the Stat3 promoter. Collectively, our data strongly indicate that p27 plays a crucial negative role in cell migration by inhibiting MnSOD expression in a STAT3-dependent manner.

Upper Cervical Spine Loading Simulating a Dynamic Low-Speed Collision Significantly Increases the Risk of Pain Compared to Quasi-Static Loading With Equivalent Neck Kinematics.

Dynamic cervical spine loading can produce facet capsule injury. Despite a large proportion of neck pain being attributable to the C2/C3 facet capsule, potential mechanisms are not understood. This study replicated low-speed frontal and rear-end traffic collisions in occiput-C3 human cadaveric cervical spine specimens and used kinematic and full-field strain analyses to assess injury. Specimens were loaded quasi-statically in flexion and extension before and after dynamic rotation of C3 at 100 deg/s. Global kinematics in the sagittal plane were tracked at 1 kHz, and C2/C3 facet capsule full-field strains were measured. Dynamic loading did not alter the kinematics from those during quasi-static (QS) loading, but maximum principal strain (MPS) and shear strain (SS) were significantly higher (p = 0.028) in dynamic flexion than for the same quasi-static conditions. The full-field strain analysis demonstrated that capsule strain was inhomogeneous, and that the peak MPS generally occurred in the anterior aspect and along the line of the C2/C3 facet joint. The strain magnitude in dynamic flexion continued to rise after the rotation of C3 had stopped, with a peak MPS of 12.52 ± 4.59% and a maximum SS of 5.34 ± 1.60%. The peak MPS in loading representative of rear-end collisions approached magnitudes previously shown to induce pain in vivo, whereas strain analysis using linear approaches across the facet joint was lower and may underestimate injury risk compared to full-field analysis. The time at which peak MPS occurred suggests that the deceleration following a collision is critical in relation to the production of injurious strains within the facet capsule.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of carbon emissions (1997-2019) at county level in mainland China based on DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS Nighttime Light Datasets.

Global warming caused by extensive carbon emissions is a critical global issue. However, the lack of county-level carbon emissions data in China hampers comprehensive research. To bridge this gap, we employ a deep learning method on nighttime light data sets to estimate county-level carbon emissions in mainland China from 1997 to 2019. Our key contributions include the successful derivation of more reliable data, revealing the evolution of spatial dynamics and emissions epicenters. Moreover, we identify a novel inverted N-shaped relationship between gross domestic product per capita and carbon emissions in the eastern and western regions, as well as an N-shaped relationship in the central region, challenging mainstream wisdom. Additionally, we highlight the significant impacts of population density, industrial structure, and carbon intensity on carbon emissions. Our study also unveils the nuanced effects of government spending, which exhibits both inhibitory and region-specific influences. These findings serve to enhance our understanding of the factors influencing carbon emissions and contribute to informed decision-making in addressing climate change-related challenges.

Increased 30-day all-cause mortality associated with Gram-negative bloodstream infections in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in patients hospitalised with Gram-negative bloodstream infections (GNBSIs). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study including cases of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella species and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in England (January 2015-December 2021) reported to UKHSA's Second Generation Surveillance System. The outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Multivariable logistic regression models were built, and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were reported. RESULTS: Total E. coli, Klebsiella spp. and P. aeruginosa infections were 206,030, 53,819 and 21,129, respectively. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, odds of death during the pandemic (March 2020 onwards) in E. coli, Klebsiella spp. and P. aeruginosa infections with no COVID-19 infection within 28-days of onset were 1.13 (1.08-1.18), 1.15 (1.07-1.25) and 1.09 (0.97-1.22), while odds in GNBSIs with an associated COVID-19 infection were 2.45 (2.26-2.66), 2.96 (2.62-3.34) and 3.15 (2.61-3.80), respectively. Asian patients with an associated COVID-19 infection were more likely to die during the pandemic compared to White patients (E. coli: OR 1.28 (0.95-1.71); Klebsiella spp. OR 1.59 (1.20-2.11); P. aeruginosa: OR 2.02 (1.23-3.31)). CONCLUSIONS: Patients suffering from a GNBSI had increased risk of death during the pandemic, with the risk higher in patients with an associated COVID-19 infection.

Economic Burden of Community-Acquired Antibiotic-Resistant Urinary Tract Infections: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Antibiotic resistance (ABR) poses a major burden to global health and economic systems. ABR in community-acquired urinary tract infections (CA-UTIs) has become increasingly prevalent. Accurate estimates of ABR's clinical and economic burden are needed to support medical resource prioritization and cost-effectiveness evaluations of urinary tract infection (UTI) interventions. Objective: This study aims to systematically synthesize the evidence on the economic costs associated with ABR in CA-UTIs, using published studies comparing the costs of antibiotic-susceptible and antibiotic-resistant cases. Methods: We searched the PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE and Embase, Cochrane Review Library, and Scopus databases. Studies published in English from January 1, 2008, to January 31, 2023, reporting the economic costs of ABR in CA-UTI of any microbe were included. Independent screening of titles/abstracts and full texts was performed based on prespecified criteria. A quality assessment was performed using the Integrated Quality Criteria for Review of Multiple Study Designs (ICROMS) tool. Data in UTI diagnosis criteria, patient characteristics, perspectives, resource costs, and patient and health economic outcomes, including mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and costs, were extracted and analyzed. Monetary costs were converted into 2023 US dollars. Results: This review included 15 studies with a total of 57,251 CA-UTI cases. All studies were from high- or upper-middle-income countries. A total of 14 (93%) studies took a health system perspective, 13 (87%) focused on hospitalized patients, and 14 (93%) reported UTI pathogens. Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa are the most prevalent organisms. A total of 12 (80%) studies reported mortality, of which, 7 reported increased mortality in the ABR group. Random effects meta-analyses estimated an odds ratio of 1.50 (95% CI 1.29-1.74) in the ABR CA-UTI cases. All 13 hospital-based studies reported LOS, of which, 11 reported significantly higher LOS in the ABR group. The meta-analysis of the reported median LOS estimated a pooled excess LOS ranging from 1.50 days (95% CI 0.71-4.00) to 2.00 days (95% CI 0.85-3.15). The meta-analysis of the reported mean LOS estimated a pooled excess LOS of 2.45 days (95% CI 0.51-4.39). A total of 8 (53%) studies reported costs in monetary terms-none discounted the costs. All 8 studies reported higher medical costs spent treating patients with ABR CA-UTI in hospitals. The highest excess cost was observed in UTIs caused by carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales. No meta-analysis was performed for monetary costs due to heterogeneity. Conclusions: ABR was attributed to increased mortality, hospital LOS, and economic costs among patients with CA-UTI. The findings of this review highlighted the scarcity of research in this area, particularly in patient morbidity and chronic sequelae and costs incurred in community health care. Future research calls for a cost-of-illness analysis of infections, standardizing therapy-pathogen combination comparators, medical resources, productivity loss, intangible costs to be captured, and data from community sectors and low-resource settings and countries.

Healthcare as a driver, reservoir and amplifier of antimicrobial resistance: opportunities for interventions.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health challenge that threatens humans, animals and the environment. Evidence is emerging for a role of healthcare infrastructure, environments and patient pathways in promoting and maintaining AMR via direct and indirect mechanisms. Advances in vaccination and monoclonal antibody therapies together with integrated surveillance, rapid diagnostics, targeted antimicrobial therapy and infection control measures offer opportunities to address healthcare-associated AMR risks more effectively. Additionally, innovations in artificial intelligence, data linkage and intelligent systems can be used to better predict and reduce AMR and improve healthcare resilience. In this Review, we examine the mechanisms by which healthcare functions as a driver, reservoir and amplifier of AMR, contextualized within a One Health framework. We also explore the opportunities and innovative solutions that can be used to combat AMR throughout the patient journey. We provide a perspective on the current evidence for the effectiveness of interventions designed to mitigate healthcare-associated AMR and promote healthcare resilience within high-income and resource-limited settings, as well as the challenges associated with their implementation.

Interference Effects of Commercial Persistent Luminescence Materials on Rice Germination and Seedling Growth.

Persistent luminescence materials (PLMs) are widely used across a multitude of fields due to their distinct optical properties. However, like other micron-sized materials such as microplastics, the production and recycling processes of PLMs can lead to their accumulation in soil and water, potentially posing detrimental effects on plant growth and development. In this study, we investigated the impact of commercially available blue PLM (bPLM), green PLM (gPLM), and red PLM (rPLM) on germination, seedling growth, and oxidative stress responses in rice. Our findings demonstrate that the morphology and size of PLMs do not significantly differ in their effects on rice growth. All three types of PLMs significantly inhibited root length and stem length, disrupted root cell structures, and decreased seedling biomass. Interestingly, gPLM and bPLM were found to stimulate the synthesis of osmolytes and chlorophyll in rice, while rPLM had the opposite effect. Changes in the antioxidant enzyme system in rice clearly indicated that the three types of PLMs induced reactive oxygen species (ROS) damage in rice. This study enhances our understanding of the potential environmental impacts of PLMs, offering valuable insights for the safe and responsible use of these materials in various applications.

A survey of patient and public perceptions and awareness of SARS-CoV-2-related risks among participants in India and South Africa.

A cross-sectional survey among participants in India and South Africa to explore perceptions and awareness of SARS-CoV-2-related risks. Main outcome measures-proportion of participants aware of SARS-CoV-2, and their perception of infection risks as it related to their views and perceptions on vaccination, i.e., using COVID-19 vaccine uptake as proxy for awareness level. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data via web- and paper-based surveys over three months. Pearson's Chi-squared test assessed relationships between variables; a p-value less than 0.05 was considered significant. There were 844 respondents (India: n = 660, South Africa: n = 184; response rate 87.6%), with a 61.1% vs 38.3% female to male ratio. Post-high-school or university education was the lowest qualification reported by most respondents in India (77.3%) and South Africa (79.3%). Sources of pandemic information were usually media and journal publications (73.2%), social media (64.6%), family and friends (47.7%) and government websites (46.2%). Most respondents correctly identified infection prevention measures (such as physical distancing, mask use), with 90.0% reporting improved hand hygiene practices since the pandemic. Hesitancy or refusal to accept the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was reported among 17.9% and 50.9% of respondents in India and South Africa, respectively; reasons cited included rushed vaccine development and the futility of vaccines for what respondents considered a self-limiting flu-like illness. In South Africa, vaccine acceptance was associated with improved hand hygiene practices since the pandemic and flu vaccination in the preceding year. No relationship was noted between awareness and practice of infection prevention measures (such as hand hygiene) and socio-demographic factors such as employment status or availability of amenities. Pandemic response and infection prevention and control measures through vaccination campaigns should consider robust public engagement and contextually-fit communication strategies with multimodal, participatory online and offline initiatives to address public concerns, specifically towards vaccines developed for this pandemic and general vaccine hesitancy.

Survey of healthcare worker perceptions of changes in infection control and antimicrobial stewardship practices in India and South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: To identify perceptions and awareness of changes in infection prevention and control (IPC) and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) practices among healthcare workers (HCWs) during the COVID-19 pandemic in India and South Africa (SA). Method: A self-administered online survey which included participant demographics, knowledge and sources of COVID-19 infection, perceived risks and barriers, and self-efficacy. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results: The study received 321 responses (response rate: 89.2%); 131/321 (40.8%) from India and 190/321 (59.2%) from SA; male to female response rate was 3:2, with majority of respondents aged 40-49 (89/321, 27.7%) and 30-39 (87/321, 27.1%) years. Doctors comprised 47.9% (57/119) of respondents in India and 74.6% (135/181) in SA. Majority of respondents in India (93/119, 78.2%) and SA (132/181, 72.9%) were from the private and public sectors, respectively, with more respondents in SA (123/174, 70.7%) than in India (38/104, 36.5%) involved in antimicrobial prescribing.Respondents reported increased IPC practices since the pandemic and noted a need for more training on case management, antibiotic and personal protective equipment (PPE) use. While they noted increased antibiotic prescribing since the pandemic, they did not generally associate their practice with such an increase. A willingness to be vaccinated, when vaccination becomes available, was expressed by 203/258 (78.7%) respondents. Conclusions: HCWs reported improved IPC practices and changes in antibiotic prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted education on correct use of PPE was an identified gap. Although HCWs expressed concerns about antimicrobial resistance, their self-perceived antibiotic prescribing practices seemed unchanged. Additional studies in other settings could explore how our findings fit other contexts.

Does Natural Amenity Matter on the Permanent Settlement Intention? Evidence from Elderly Migrants in Urban China.

This study focuses on the role of natural amenity in spurring the permanent settlement of elderly migrants in China, in the period from 2009 to 2017. Based on a combination of NASA's Global Annual PM2.5 Grid data, and a nationwide China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) dataset, a binary logit model was used to investigate the settlement intention of migrants over 60 years old, across 291 cities in China. The empirical results revealed that there was a significant inverted U-shape between the annual temperature and permanent settlement, and prefectures with warmer winters and higher air quality were more attractive to elderly migrants when controlling for the urban endowment and economic conditions. In addition, the coefficient of the interaction term of air quality and precipitation was negative, indicating that the hindrance of precipitation on permanent settlement intention decreased with the enhancement in better air quality. Furthermore, there was significant group heterogeneity in the elderly's migration reasons. The group of active movers cared more about environmental quality, whereas for the passive group, air quality had no effect on their permanent settlement.

City Size and Permanent Settlement Intention: Evidence from Rural-Urban Migrants in China.

The location choice and livelihoods of rural-urban migrants are critical to the sustainable development of cities. By using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) in 2017, this paper extant the Rosen-Roback's model by adding factors of urban social network and air pollution to the function of the individual utility of migrants. Both the Probit Model and IV estimates imply evidence of an inverse U-shaped pattern of city size and migrants' permanent settlement in urban China. This view proves that Chinese migrants like to settle permanently in large cities, but not mega-cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai. The internal mechanism is explained by the agglomeration economies and the crowing effect brought by city size. In mega-cities, the attractiveness of the city caused by wage premium cannot offset the combined repulsive force caused by the high housing price, bad urban social network, air pollution, and health deterioration. It is worth noting that air pollution has a significant negative impact on the settlement intention of migrants, such as health conditions and precipitation. Besides, there is heterogeneity among high-skilled migrants and low-skilled migrants in different city sizes. Our findings enhance the understanding of "Escape from megacities" in China and have implications for the reform of the housing security system and the exploration of the urbanization path.

The spatial heterogeneity of the impact of PM2.5 on domestic tourism flows in China.

As haze pollution intensifies, its impact on tourism is becoming increasingly obvious. However, limited studies have analyzed the impacts of haze pollution on tourism. To explore the contribution rate and impact of PM2.5 pollution on tourism flows, panel data on 341 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2015 were used. The results illustrated that the changes in PM2.5 pollution and domestic tourism flows showed a similar partial-most anti-phase main spatial pattern in space, as well as other spatial patterns of PM2.5. From a regional perspective, the contribution rate of PM2.5 to domestic tourism flows was less than that of traditional factors, such as GDP, GDP_500, and 45A, but larger than that of the Airport factor. The contribution rate of the interaction between PM2.5 and 45A on domestic tourism flows was the largest. From a local perspective, PM2.5 pollution had a negative impact on domestic tourism flows in northern China, while it had a positive impact in other regions. The classic environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis showed applicability to the Chinese tourism industry, and the is of great significance for comprehensively understanding the impact of PM2.5 pollution on tourism flows and for promoting the sustainable development of domestic tourism.

The relationship between musculoskeletal health literacy and upper extremity patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in the setting of atraumatic shoulder pain.

INTRODUCTION: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are commonly utilized to assess patient-derived orthopaedic health status and function. The prevalence of limited musculoskeletal health literacy (MHL) has been demonstrated to be high within the orthopaedic literature. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between MHL and upper extremity-specific PROMs and to determine which patient- and symptom-related factors affect baseline PROMs in patients with atraumatic shoulder pain. HYPOTHESIS: Patients with limited MHL would demonstrate lower median scores on baseline PROMs compared with those with adequate MHL. MATERIALS AND METHODS: New patients with atraumatic shoulder pain presenting to an academic practice were administered the Literacy in Musculoskeletal Problems (LiMP), in addition to the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES), Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (QuickDASH), and Single Assessment Numeric Evaluation (SANE) questionnaires. A detailed physical exam and history was performed by a fellowship-trained shoulder surgeon. Demographic patient data, in addition to prior imaging and orthopaedic treatment, was tabulated. The association between demographics, pain-related variables, and MHL with the ASES, SANE, and QuickDASH scores were examined using Spearman correlation coefficients for continuous variables and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests for categorical variables. Non-parametric analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was used to examine the independent association of predictor variables with PROMs. RESULTS: A total of 439 patients met the inclusion criteria and were enrolled. The mean age was 58.8±12.6years (range: 24-93) with 162 (37%) being men. Overall, 172 patients (39.2%) attained a college degree or higher and 183 (41.7%) were currently employed. MHL was significantly associated with ASES (p=0.03), but not with the QuickDASH (p=0.75) or SANE score (p=0.16). Similarly, age, having been in the medical profession or having previously visited an orthopaedist were not associated with PROMs, while employment status correlated to the SANE score (p=0.002). Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) pain level demonstrated varying strengths of association with each of the scores [ASES (r=-0.729, p<0.001), QuickDASH (r=0.557, p<0.001), and SANE (r=-0.430, p<0.001)]. MHL demonstrated no association with initial patient-derived treatment selection. DISCUSSION: The SANE and QuickDASH may be administered to patients presenting for atraumatic shoulder pain in the outpatient setting regardless of MHL. Further research should be focused on the utility of the ASES instrument amongst patients with lower educational levels and/or limited MHL. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II; diagnostic.

Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Decision-makers for public policy are increasingly utilising systems approaches such as system dynamics (SD) modelling, which test alternative interventions or policies for their potential impact while accounting for complexity. These approaches, however, have not consistently included an economic efficiency analysis dimension. This systematic review aims to examine how, and in what ways, system dynamics modelling approaches incorporate economic efficiency analyses to inform decision-making on innovations (improvements in products, services, or processes) in the public sector, with a particular interest in health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relevant studies (n = 29) were identified through a systematic search and screening of four electronic databases and backward citation search, and analysed for key characteristics and themes related to the analytical methods applied. Economic efficiency analysis approaches within SD broadly fell into two categories: as embedded sub-models or as cost calculations based on the outputs of the SD model. Embdedded sub-models within a dynamic SD framework can reveal a clear allocation of costs and benefits to periods of time, whereas cost calculations based on the SD model outputs can be useful for high-level resource allocation decisions. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review reveals that SD modelling is not currently used to its full potential to evaluate the technical or allocative efficiency of public sector innovations, particularly in health. The limited reporting on the experience or methodological challenges of applying allocated efficiency analyses with SD, particularly with dynamic embedded models, hampers common learning lessons to draw from and build on. Further application and comprehensive reporting of this approach would be welcome to develop the methodology further.

Postoperative Infection Rate and Associated Factors Following Endoscopic Sinus Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: There is a paucity of data on postoperative infections after endoscopic sinus surgery and associated risk factors. Our objective was to evaluate a cohort of patients undergoing endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) for chronic rhinosinusitis to determine which perioperative factors may be associated with infection in the 30-day postoperative period. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adults who underwent ESS at a tertiary academic medical center from 2015 to 2018 was performed. The primary outcome was incidence of postoperative infection, defined by identification of sinus purulence on nasal endoscopy necessitating antibiotics within 30 days of surgery. Independent variables collated included the result of postoperative cultures and use of perioperative antibiotics, oral corticosteroids, packing, and steroid-eluting stents. Statistical analysis involved bivariate analysis to identify variables that correlated with postoperative infection and subsequent multivariate logistic regression to identify independent risk factors. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-eight unique ESS cases performed in 356 patients were reviewed. The mean age was 46 years (range, 18-87). The most common indication for surgery was chronic rhinosinusitis without nasal polyposis. The postoperative infection rate was 10.1%. The most commonly cultured pathogen was Staphylococcus aureus. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that postoperative systemic corticosteroid use was the only risk factor independently associated with infection (OR 3.47 [95% CI 1.23-9.76], P = .018). CONCLUSION: The incidence of postoperative infection following ESS was 10.1%. The use of postoperative systemic corticosteroids independently increased the risk of infection by 3.47-fold.

Prediction of hospital-onset COVID-19 infections using dynamic networks of patient contact: an international retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Real-time prediction is key to prevention and control of infections associated with health-care settings. Contacts enable spread of many infections, yet most risk prediction frameworks fail to account for their dynamics. We developed, tested, and internationally validated a real-time machine-learning framework, incorporating dynamic patient-contact networks to predict hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs) at the individual level. METHODS: We report an international retrospective cohort study of our framework, which extracted patient-contact networks from routine hospital data and combined network-derived variables with clinical and contextual information to predict individual infection risk. We trained and tested the framework on HOCIs using the data from 51 157 hospital inpatients admitted to a UK National Health Service hospital group (Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust) between April 1, 2020, and April 1, 2021, intersecting the first two COVID-19 surges. We validated the framework using data from a Swiss hospital group (Department of Rehabilitation, Geneva University Hospitals) during a COVID-19 surge (from March 1 to May 31, 2020; 40 057 inpatients) and from the same UK group after COVID-19 surges (from April 2 to Aug 13, 2021; 43 375 inpatients). All inpatients with a bed allocation during the study periods were included in the computation of network-derived and contextual variables. In predicting patient-level HOCI risk, only inpatients spending 3 or more days in hospital during the study period were examined for HOCI acquisition risk. FINDINGS: The framework was highly predictive across test data with all variable types (area under the curve [AUC]-receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC] 0·89 [95% CI 0·88-0·90]) and similarly predictive using only contact-network variables (0·88 [0·86-0·90]). Prediction was reduced when using only hospital contextual (AUC-ROC 0·82 [95% CI 0·80-0·84]) or patient clinical (0·64 [0·62-0·66]) variables. A model with only three variables (ie, network closeness, direct contacts with infectious patients [network derived], and hospital COVID-19 prevalence [hospital contextual]) achieved AUC-ROC 0·85 (95% CI 0·82-0·88). Incorporating contact-network variables improved performance across both validation datasets (AUC-ROC in the Geneva dataset increased from 0·84 [95% CI 0·82-0·86] to 0·88 [0·86-0·90]; AUC-ROC in the UK post-surge dataset increased from 0·49 [0·46-0·52] to 0·68 [0·64-0·70]). INTERPRETATION: Dynamic contact networks are robust predictors of individual patient risk of HOCIs. Their integration in clinical care could enhance individualised infection prevention and early diagnosis of COVID-19 and other nosocomial infections. FUNDING: Medical Research Foundation, WHO, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Swiss National Science Foundation, and German Research Foundation.