Fatores associados ao óbito em casos confirmados de COVID-19 no estado do Rio de Janeiro.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 can occur asymptomatically, as influenza-like illness, or as more severe forms, which characterize severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Its mortality rate is higher in individuals over 80 years of age and in people with comorbidities, so these constitute the risk group for severe forms of the disease. We analyzed the factors associated with death in confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Rio de Janeiro. This cross-sectional study evaluated the association between individual demographic, clinical, and epidemiological variables and the outcome (death) using data from the Unified Health System information systems. METHODS: We used the extreme boosting gradient (XGBoost) model to analyze the data, which uses decision trees weighted by the estimation difficulty. To evaluate the relevance of each independent variable, we used the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) metric. From the probabilities generated by the XGBoost model, we transformed the data to the logarithm of odds to estimate the odds ratio for each independent variable. RESULTS: This study showed that older individuals of black race/skin color with heart disease or diabetes who had dyspnea or fever were more likely to die. CONCLUSIONS: The early identification of patients who may progress to a more severe form of the disease can help improve the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and is thus essential to reduce the lethality of the disease.

[Microcephaly and central nervous system findings associated with congenital Zika virus and other infectious etiologies in the state of Rio de Janeiro: crosssectional study, 2015 a 2017Microcefalia y alteraciones del sistema nervioso central relacionadas con la infección congénita por el virus del Zika y otras etiologías infecciosas en el Estado de Río de Janeiro: estudio transversal, 2015-2017]. / Microcefalia e alterações do sistema nervoso central relacionadas à infecção congênita pelo vírus Zika e outras etiologias infecciosas no estado do Rio de Janeiro: estudo transversal, 2015 a 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical and epidemiological profile of cases with confirmed microcephaly or central nervous system (CNS) findings associated with congenital Zika virus infection and other infectious etiologies in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from November 2015 to July 2017. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was performed with 298 cases (as defined by the Ministry of Health) communicated to the Rio de Janeiro State Department of Health in the study period. Demographic, epidemiological, clinical, radiological, and laboratory variables were assessed. Descriptive bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between specific factors and death outcome. RESULTS: The median age of mothers was 24 years; 30.9% reported fever and 64.8% reported a rash during pregnancy. The median head circumference at birth was 29 cm, and median birth weight was 2 635 g. An etiological diagnosis of congenital Zika was made in 46.0%, whereas 13.8% were diagnosed with syphilis, toxoplasmosis, rubella, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex infections (STORCH), with predominance of syphilis, and 40.3% had an unspecified infectious agent. CNS findings other than microcephaly were observed in 88.3%, especially intracranial calcifications, ventriculomegaly, and brain atrophy. Overall lethality was 7.0% - 19.0% in laboratory confirmed Zika cases and 22.2% in toxoplasmosis cases. Multivariable analysis revealed birth weight as the main predictor of death. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the Zika epidemic, 13.8% of the studied cases were diagnosed with STORCH. The lethality and high frequency of neurological findings beyond microcephaly reflect severe infection, with impact on families and health care system.

OBJETIVO: Describir el perfil clínico-epidemiológico de los casos confirmados de microcefalia y de alteraciones del sistema nervioso central (SNC) relacionados con la infección congénita por el virus del Zika y otras etiologías infecciosas en el Estado de Río de Janeiro en el período comprendido entre noviembre del 2015 y julio del 2017. MÉTODOS: Se realizó un estudio transversal de 298 casos (según la definición del Ministerio de Salud) notificados a la Secretaría de Estado de Salud de Río de Janeiro en el período objeto de estudio. Se analizaron variables demográficas, epidemiológicas, clínicas, radiológicas y de laboratorio, con un análisis estadístico descriptivo bivariado y de regresión logística múltiple para estudio de los factores relacionados con la defunción. RESULTADOS: La edad mediana de las madres fue de 24 años; un 30,9% informó fiebre y un 64,8%, exantema durante la gestación. La mediana del perímetro cefálico al nacer fue de 29 cm y la del peso, de 2635 g. El diagnóstico etiológico fue de infección congénita por el virus del Zika en un 46,0%; sífilis, toxoplasmosis, rubéola, infección por citomegalovirus e infección por el virus del herpes simple (STORCH) en un 13,8%, con predominio de sífilis; e infección por un agente infeccioso no definido en un 40,3%. Se describieron alteraciones del SNC diferentes de microcefalia en un 88,3%, con predominio de calcificaciones cerebrales, ventriculomegalia y atrofia cerebral. La letalidad total alcanzó 7,0%; se confirmaron en el laboratorio 19,0% de los casos de infección por el virus del Zika y 22,2% de los casos de toxoplasmosis. En el análisis de regresión logística múltiple, el peso al nacer fue el principal pronóstico de defunción. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar de la epidemia de la infección por el virus del Zika, 13,8% de los casos fueron causados por STORCH. La letalidad y la elevada presencia de malformaciones neurológicas, además de microcefalia, muestran la gravedad de la infección y sus repercusiones para las familias y para el sistema de salud.