Counseling pregnant women on calcium: effects on calcium intake.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of incorporating calcium advice into early pregnancy counseling on calcium intake during pregnancy in the Netherlands. METHODS: A multicenter prospective before-after cohort study was conducted introducing risk-based care including calculating individual pre-eclampsia risk. Part of the intervention was to incorporate calcium advice into routine counseling. We calculated individual daily calcium intake and adequacy of calcium intake (≥1,000 mg/day) at 16, 24 and 34 weeks of pregnancy. We performed a multiple logistic regression adjusting for covariates to identify any differences in the risk of inadequate calcium intake between RC and CAC. RESULTS: In regular care (RC, 2013-2015, n=2,477) 60% had inadequate calcium intake, compared to 49% during calcium advice care (CAC, 2017-2018, n=774) (aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.88). Specific calcium supplements were used by 2% and 29% in RC and CAC, respectively (OR 25.1, 95% CI 17.8-36.0). Determinants of an inadequate calcium intake were lower age (aOR per additional year 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.98), nulliparity (aOR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03-1.45) and non-Caucasian origin (aOR 1.83, 95% CI 1.09-3.09). In CAC, risk of inadequate intake decreased with increasing predicted pre-eclampsia risk, which was a trend reversal compared to RC. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating calcium advice into early pregnancy counseling was shown to lead to a decrease in the risk of inadequate calcium intake during pregnancy, but still inadequate intake in half of the women suggesting the need for further study on improving implementation. Awareness of individual increased PE risk had positive effect on calcium intake.

External validation of a prediction model on vaginal birth after caesarean in a The Netherlands: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Discussing the individual probability of a successful vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) can support decision making. The aim of this study is to externally validate a prediction model for the probability of a VBAC in a Dutch population. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study in 12 Dutch hospitals, 586 women intending VBAC were included. Inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies with a cephalic foetal presentation, delivery after 37 weeks and one previous caesarean section (CS) and preference for intending VBAC. The studied prediction model included six predictors: pre-pregnancy body mass index, previous vaginal delivery, previous CS because of non-progressive labour, Caucasian ethnicity, induction of current labour, and estimated foetal weight ≥90th percentile. The discriminative and predictive performance of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration plots. RESULTS: The area under the curve was 0.73 (CI 0.69-0.78). The average predicted probability of a VBAC according to the prediction model was 70.3% (range 33-92%). The actual VBAC rate was 71.7%. The calibration plot shows some overestimation for low probabilities of VBAC and an underestimation of high probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model showed good performance and was externally validated in a Dutch population. Hence it can be implemented as part of counselling for mode of delivery in women choosing between intended VBAC or planned CS after previous CS.

Impact on perinatal health and cost-effectiveness of risk-based care in obstetrics: a before-after study.

BACKGROUND: Obstetric health care relies on an adequate antepartum risk selection. Most guidelines used for risk stratification, however, do not assess absolute risks. In 2017, a prediction tool was implemented in a Dutch region. This tool combines first trimester prediction models with obstetric care paths tailored to the individual risk profile, enabling risk-based care. OBJECTIVE: To assess impact and cost-effectiveness of risk-based care compared to care-as-usual in a general population. METHODS: A before-after study was conducted using 2 multicenter prospective cohorts. The first cohort (2013-2015) received care-as-usual; the second cohort (2017-2018) received risk-based care. Health outcomes were (1) a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes and (2) maternal quality-adjusted life-years. Costs were estimated using a health care perspective from conception to 6 weeks after the due date. Mean costs per woman, cost differences between the 2 groups, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: In total 3425 women were included. In nulliparous women there was a significant reduction of perinatal adverse outcomes among the risk-based care group (adjusted odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.94), but not in multiparous women. Mean costs per pregnant woman were significantly lower for risk-based care (mean difference, -€2766; 95% confidence interval, -€3700 to -€1825). No differences in maternal quality of life, adjusted for baseline health, were observed. CONCLUSION: In the Netherlands, risk-based care in nulliparous women was associated with improved perinatal outcomes as compared to care-as-usual. Furthermore, risk-based care was cost-effective compared to care-as-usual and resulted in lower health care costs.

Low-dose-aspirin usage among women with an increased preeclampsia risk: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Low-dose aspirin (LDA) prophylaxis has been shown to reduce women's preeclampsia risk. Evidence regarding LDA adherence rates of pregnant women is based almost exclusively on clinical trials, giving a potentially biased picture. Moreover, these studies do not report on determinants of adherence. Since 2017, obstetric healthcare professionals in a Dutch region have assessed women's preeclampsia risk by means of a prediction tool and counseled those with an above-population average risk on LDA as a prophylactic measure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From 2017 to 2018, 865 women were recruited in multiple centers and prospectively followed using web-based surveys (Expect Study II). Rates and determinants of LDA usage among women with an increased preeclampsia risk in daily practice were assessed. Results were compared with findings in a similar cohort from a care-as-usual setting lacking risk-based counseling (Expect Study I, n = 2614). Netherlands Trial Register NTR4143. RESULTS: In total, 306 women had a predicted increased preeclampsia risk. LDA usage was higher for women receiving risk-based care than care-as-usual (29.4% vs 1.5%, odds ratio 19.1, 95% confidence interval 11.2-32.5). Daily LDA usage was positively correlated with both predicted risk and women's concerns regarding preeclampsia. Most reported reasons for non- or incomplete use were unawareness of LDA as a preventive intervention, concerns about potential adverse effects and doubts regarding the benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-based counseling was associated with a higher prevalence of LDA usage, but general usage rates were low. Future research regarding potential factors improving the usage of LDA during pregnancy is necessary.

External validation and clinical utility of prognostic prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: We performed an independent validation study of all published first trimester prediction models, containing non-invasive predictors, for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, the clinical potential of the best performing models was evaluated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Systemically selected prediction models from the literature were validated in a Dutch prospective cohort using data from Expect Study I and PRIDE Study. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. Screening performance measures were calculated at different risk thresholds for the best model and compared with current selective screening strategies. RESULTS: The validation cohort included 5260 women. Gestational diabetes mellitus was diagnosed in 127 women (2.4%). The discriminative performance of the 12 included models ranged from 68% to 75%. Nearly all models overestimated the risk. After recalibration, agreement between the observed outcomes and predicted probabilities improved for most models. CONCLUSIONS: The best performing prediction models showed acceptable performance measures and may enable more personalized medicine-based antenatal care for women at risk of developing gestational diabetes mellitus compared with current applied strategies.

External Validation and Clinical Usefulness of First Trimester Prediction Models for the Risk of Preeclampsia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study assessed the external validity of all published first trimester prediction models for the risk of preeclampsia (PE) based on routinely collected maternal predictors. Moreover, the potential utility of the best-performing models in clinical practice was evaluated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ten prediction models were systematically selected from the literature. We performed a multicenter prospective cohort study in the Netherlands between July 1, 2013, and December 31, 2015. Eligible pregnant women completed a web-based questionnaire before 16 weeks' gestation. The outcome PE was established using postpartum questionnaires and medical records. Predictive performance of each model was assessed by means of discrimination (c-statistic) and a calibration plot. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by means of decision curve analysis and by calculating the potential impact at different risk thresholds. RESULTS: The validation cohort contained 2,614 women of whom 76 developed PE (2.9%). Five models showed moderate discriminative performance with c-statistics ranging from 0.73 to 0.77. Adequate calibration was obtained after refitting. The best models were clinically useful over a small range of predicted probabilities. DISCUSSION: Five of the ten included first trimester prediction models for PE showed moderate predictive performance. The best models may provide more benefit compared to risk selection as used in current guidelines.

Prediction models for the risk of spontaneous preterm birth based on maternal characteristics: a systematic review and independent external validation.

INTRODUCTION: Prediction models may contribute to personalized risk-based management of women at high risk of spontaneous preterm delivery. Although prediction models are published frequently, often with promising results, external validation generally is lacking. We performed a systematic review of prediction models for the risk of spontaneous preterm birth based on routine clinical parameters. Additionally, we externally validated and evaluated the clinical potential of the models. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prediction models based on routinely collected maternal parameters obtainable during first 16 weeks of gestation were eligible for selection. Risk of bias was assessed according to the CHARMS guidelines. We validated the selected models in a Dutch multicenter prospective cohort study comprising 2614 unselected pregnant women. Information on predictors was obtained by a web-based questionnaire. Predictive performance of the models was quantified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots for the outcomes spontaneous preterm birth <37 weeks and <34 weeks of gestation. Clinical value was evaluated by means of decision curve analysis and calculating classification accuracy for different risk thresholds. RESULTS: Four studies describing five prediction models fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Risk of bias assessment revealed a moderate to high risk of bias in three studies. The AUC of the models ranged from 0.54 to 0.67 and from 0.56 to 0.70 for the outcomes spontaneous preterm birth <37 weeks and <34 weeks of gestation, respectively. A subanalysis showed that the models discriminated poorly (AUC 0.51-0.56) for nulliparous women. Although we recalibrated the models, two models retained evidence of overfitting. The decision curve analysis showed low clinical benefit for the best performing models. CONCLUSIONS: This review revealed several reporting and methodological shortcomings of published prediction models for spontaneous preterm birth. Our external validation study indicated that none of the models had the ability to predict spontaneous preterm birth adequately in our population. Further improvement of prediction models, using recent knowledge about both model development and potential risk factors, is necessary to provide an added value in personalized risk assessment of spontaneous preterm birth.

Practice variation of vaginal birth after cesarean and the influence of risk factors at patient level: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Large practice variation exists in mode of delivery after cesarean section, suggesting variation in implementation of contemporary guidelines. We aim to evaluate this practice variation and to what extent this can be explained by risk factors at patient level. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was performed among 17 Dutch hospitals in 2010. Women with one prior cesarean section without a contraindication for a trial of labor were included. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to develop models for risk factor adjustments. One model was derived to adjust the elective repeat cesarean section rates; a second model to adjust vaginal birth after cesarean rates. Standardized rates of elective repeat cesarean section and vaginal birth after cesarean per hospital were compared. Pseudo-R2 measures were calculated to estimate the percentage of practice variation explained by the models. Secondary outcomes were differences in practice variation between hospital types and the correlation between standardized elective repeat cesarean section and vaginal birth after cesarean rates. RESULTS: In all, 1068 women had a history of cesarean section, of whom 71% were eligible for inclusion. A total of 515 women (67%) had a trial of labor, of whom 72% delivered vaginally. The elective repeat cesarean section rate at hospital level ranged from 6 to 54% (mean 29.8, standard deviation 11.8%). Vaginal birth after cesarean rates ranged from 50 to 90% (mean 71.8%, standard deviation 11.1%). More than 85% of this practice variation could not be explained by risk factors at patient level. CONCLUSION: A large practice variation exists in elective repeat cesarean section and vaginal birth after cesarean rates that can only partially be explained by risk factors at patient level.

The extended reconstruction of the pubocervical layer appears superior to the simple plication of the bladder adventitia concerning anterior colporrhaphy: a description of two techniques in an observational retrospective analysis.

AIMS: This observational retrospective analysis was done to compare the plication of the bladder adventitia with the reconstruction of the pubocervical layer concerning the reoperation rate for recurrent cystocele. METHODS: Sixty-five patients underwent an anterior vaginal wall repair using traditional techniques. In 11 patients, the prolapse was corrected by simply plicating the adventitia of the posterior bladder wall (group A), and in 54 patients the pubocervical layer was rebuilt using structures of the endopelvic fascia following far lateral dissection of the vaginal flaps (group B). The anatomical state was documented via the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification system. RESULTS: The overall reoperation rate of cystoceles was 6% after a mean follow-up of 2 years. Three out of 11 patients of group A and 1/54 patients of group B underwent repeat surgery (p < 0.005). No complications were observed in group A (0/11). In contrast, seven complications were related to the reconstruction of the pubocervical layer (7/54, p > 0.05). Two patients presented with ureteral obstruction, one of them requiring temporary nephrostomy. CONCLUSION: Compared with the plication of the bladder adventitia, the reoperation rate after reconstruction of the pubocervical layer is diminished. However, because of potential risks of ureteral injury, the procedure demands serious precaution.

Adherence rates to a prediction tool identifying women with an increased gestational diabetes risk: An implementation study.

OBJECTIVE: The best screening strategy for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) remains a topic of debate. Several organizations made a statement in favor of universal screening, but the volume of oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) required may burden healthcare systems. As a result, many countries still rely on selective screening using a checklist of risk factors, but reported diagnostic characteristics vary. Moreover, women's discomfort due to an OGTT is often neglected. Since 2017, obstetric healthcare professionals in a Dutch region assessed women's GDM risk with a prediction model and counseled those with an increased risk regarding an OGTT. METHODS: From 2017 to 2018, 865 women were recruited in a multicenter prospective cohort. RESULTS: In total, 385 women (48%) had an increased predicted GDM risk. Of all women, 78% reported that their healthcare professional discussed their GDM risk. Predicted GDM risks were positively correlated with conducting an OGTT. CONCLUSION: Implementation of a GDM prediction model resulted in moderate rates of OGTTs performed in general, but high rates in high-risk women. As 25% of women experienced discomfort from the OGTT, a selective screening strategy based on a prediction model with a high detection rate may be an interesting alternative to universal screening. STUDY COHORT REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register: NTR4143; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=4143.

Implementing a Preeclampsia Prediction Model in Obstetrics: Cutoff Determination and Health Care Professionals' Adherence.

Background. Despite improved management, preeclampsia remains an important cause of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. Low-dose aspirin (LDA) lowers the risk of preeclampsia. Although several guidelines recommend LDA prophylaxis in women at increased risk, they disagree about the definition of high risk. Recently, an externally validated prediction model for preeclampsia was implemented in a Dutch region combined with risk-based obstetric care paths. Objectives. To demonstrate the selection of a risk threshold and to evaluate the adherence of obstetric health care professionals to the prediction tool. Study Design. Using a survey (n = 136) and structured meetings among health care professionals, possible cutoff values at which LDA should be discussed were proposed. The prediction model, with chosen cutoff and corresponding risk-based care paths, was embedded in an online tool. Subsequently, a prospective multicenter cohort study (n = 850) was performed to analyze the adherence of health care professionals. Patient questionnaires, linked to the individual risk profiles calculated by the online tool, were used to evaluate adherence. Results. Health care professionals agreed upon employing a tool with a high detection rate (cutoff: 3.0%; sensitivity 75%, specificity 64%) followed by shared decision between patients and health care professionals on LDA prophylaxis. Of the 850 enrolled women, 364 women had an increased risk of preeclampsia. LDA was discussed with 273 of these women, resulting in an 81% adherence rate. Conclusion. Consensus regarding a suitable risk cutoff threshold was reached. The adherence to this recommendation was 81%, indicating adequate implementation.

SIMPLE: implementation of recommendations from international evidence-based guidelines on caesarean sections in the Netherlands. Protocol for a controlled before and after study.

BACKGROUND: Caesarean section (CS) rates are rising worldwide. In the Netherlands, the most significant rise is observed in healthy women with a singleton in vertex position between 37 and 42 weeks gestation, whereas it is doubtful whether an improved outcome for the mother or her child was obtained. It can be hypothesized that evidence-based guidelines on CS are not implemented sufficiently. Therefore, the present study has the following objectives: to develop quality indicators on the decision to perform a CS based on key recommendations from national and international guidelines; to use the quality indicators in order to gain insight into actual adherence of Dutch gynaecologists to guideline recommendations on the performance of a CS; to explore barriers and facilitators that have a direct effect on guideline application regarding CS; and to develop, execute, and evaluate a strategy in order to reduce the CS incidence for a similar neonatal outcome (based on the information gathered in the second and third objectives). METHODS: An independent expert panel of Dutch gynaecologists and midwives will develop a set of quality indicators on the decision to perform a CS. These indicators will be used to measure current care in 20 hospitals with a population of 1,000 women who delivered by CS, and a random selection of 1,000 women who delivered vaginally in the same period. Furthermore, by interviewing healthcare professionals and patients, the barriers and facilitators that may influence the decision to perform a CS will be measured. Based on the results, a tailor-made implementation strategy will be developed and tested in a controlled before-and-after study in 12 hospitals (six intervention, six control hospitals) with regard to effectiveness, experiences, and costs. DISCUSSION: This study will offer insight into the current CS care and into the hindering and facilitating factors influencing obstetrical policy on CS. Furthermore, it will allow definition of patient categories or situations in which a tailor-made implementation strategy will most likely be meaningful and cost effective, without negatively affecting the outcome for mother and child. TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01261676.