Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events.

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe.

Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind.

Restricted internal diffusion weakens transpiration-photosynthesis coupling during heatwaves: Evidence from leaf carbonyl sulphide exchange.

Increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves threaten ecosystem health in a warming climate. However, plant responses to heatwaves are poorly understood. A key uncertainty concerns the intensification of transpiration when heatwaves suppress photosynthesis, known as transpiration-photosynthesis decoupling. Field observations of such decoupling are scarce, and the underlying physiological mechanisms remain elusive. Here, we use carbonyl sulphide (COS) as a leaf gas exchange tracer to examine potential mechanisms leading to transpiration-photosynthesis decoupling on a coast live oak in a southern California woodland in spring 2013. We found that heatwaves suppressed both photosynthesis and leaf COS uptake but increased transpiration or sustained it at non-heatwave levels throughout the day. Despite statistically significant decoupling between transpiration and photosynthesis, stomatal sensitivity to environmental factors did not change during heatwaves. Instead, midday photosynthesis during heatwaves was restricted by internal diffusion, as indicated by the lower internal conductance to COS. Thus, increased evaporative demand and nonstomatal limitation to photosynthesis act jointly to decouple transpiration from photosynthesis without altering stomatal sensitivity. Decoupling offered limited potential cooling benefits, questioning its effectiveness for leaf thermoregulation in xeric ecosystems. We suggest that adding COS to leaf and ecosystem flux measurements helps elucidate diverse physiological mechanisms underlying transpiration-photosynthesis decoupling.

Marine heatwave-driven mass mortality and microbial community reorganisation in an ecologically important temperate sponge.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity, disrupting global marine ecosystems. While most reported impacts have been in tropical areas, New Zealand experienced its strongest and longest MHW in 2022, profoundly affecting marine sponges. Sponges are vital to rocky benthic marine communities, with their abundance influencing ecosystem functioning. This study examines the impact of this MHW on the photosynthetic sponge Cymbastella lamellata in Fiordland, New Zealand. We describe the extent, physiological responses, mortality, microbial community changes and ecological impact of this MHW on C. lamellata. The Fiordland MHW reached a maximum temperature of 4.4°C above average, lasting for 259 days. Bleaching occurred in >90% of the C. lamellata Fiordland population. The population size exceeded 66 million from 5 to 25 m, making this the largest bleaching event of its kind ever recorded. We identified the photosynthetic symbiont as a diatom, and bleached sponges had reduced photosynthetic efficiency. Post-MHW surveys in 2023 found that over 50% of sponges at sampling sites had died but that the remaining sponges had mostly recovered from earlier bleaching. Using a simulated MHW experiment, we found that temperature stress was a driver of necrosis rather than bleaching, despite necrosis only rarely being observed in the field (<2% of sponges). This suggests that bleaching may not be the cause of the mortality directly. We also identified a microbial community shift in surviving sponges, which we propose represents a microbial-mediated adaptive response to MHWs. We also found that C. lamellata are key contributors of dissolved organic carbon to the water column, with their loss likely impacting ecosystem function. We demonstrate the potential for MHWs to disrupt key marine phyla in temperate regions, highlighting how susceptible temperate sponges globally might be to MHWs.

Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs.

Corals are being increasingly subjected to marine heatwaves. Theory suggests that increasing the intensity of disturbances reduces recovery rates, which inspired us to examine the recovery rates of coral cover following marine heatwaves, cyclones, and other disturbances at 1921 study sites, in 58 countries and three oceans, from 1977 to 2020. In the Atlantic Ocean, coral cover has decreased fourfold since the 1970s, and recovery rates following disturbances have been relatively slow, except in the Antilles. By contrast, reefs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have maintained coral cover and recovery rates over time. There were positive relationships between rates of coral recovery and prior cyclone and heatwave frequency, and negative relationships between rates of coral recovery and macroalgae cover and distance to shore. A recent increase in the variance in recovery rates in some ecoregions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggests that some reefs in those ecoregions may be approaching a phase shift. While marine heatwaves are increasing in intensity and frequency, our results suggest that regional and local conditions influence coral recovery rates, and therefore, effective local management efforts can help reefs recover from disturbances.

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves.

As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events.

Over the last decades, mass mortality events have become increasingly common across taxa with sometimes devastating effects on population biomass. In the aquatic environment, fish are sensitive to mass mortality events, particularly at the early life stages that are crucial for population dynamics. However, it has recently been shown for fish, that a single mass mortality event in early life typically does not lead to population collapse. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of extreme events that can cause mass mortality, such as marine heatwaves, are increasing. Here, we show that increasing frequency and intensity of mass mortality events may lead to population collapse. Since the drivers of mass mortality events are diverse, and often linked to climate change, it is challenging to predict the frequency and severity of future mass mortality events. As an alternative, we quantify the probability of population collapse depending on the frequency and intensity as well as the duration of mass mortality events. Based on 39 fish species, we show that the probability of collapse typically increases with increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of the mortality events. In addition, we show that the collapse depends on key traits such as natural mortality, recruitment variation, and density dependence. The presented framework provides quantitative estimates of the sensitivity of fish species to these increasingly common extreme events, which paves the way for potential mitigation actions to alleviate adverse impacts on harvested fish populations across the globe.

Land surface conductance linked to precipitation: Co-evolution of vegetation and climate in Earth system models.

Vegetation and precipitation are known to fundamentally influence each other. However, this interdependence is not fully represented in climate models because the characteristics of land surface (canopy) conductance to water vapor and CO2 are determined independently of precipitation. Working within a coupled atmosphere and land modelling framework (CAM6/CLM5; coupled Community Atmosphere Model v6/Community Land Model v5), we have developed a new theoretical approach to characterizing land surface conductance by explicitly linking its dynamic properties to local precipitation, a robust proxy for moisture available to vegetation. This will enable regional surface conductance characteristics to shift fluidly with climate change in simulations, consistent with general principles of co-evolution of vegetation and climate. Testing within the CAM6/CLM5 framework shows that climate simulations incorporating the new theory outperform current default configurations across several error metrics for core output variables when measured against observational data. In climate simulations for the end of this century the new, adaptive stomatal conductance scheme provides a revised prognosis for average and extreme temperatures over several large regions, with increased primary productivity through central and east Asia, and higher rainfall through North Africa and the Middle East. The new projections also reveal more frequent heatwaves than originally estimated for the south-eastern US and sub-Saharan Africa but less frequent heatwaves across east Europe and northeast Asia. These developments have implications for evaluating food security and risks from extreme temperatures in areas that are vulnerable to climate change.

Timing-dependent effects of elevated temperature on reproductive traits in the European corn borer moth.

Elevated temperature often has life stage-specific effects on ectotherms because thermal tolerance varies throughout ontogeny. Impacts of elevated temperature may extend beyond the exposed life stage if developmental plasticity causes early exposure to carry-over or if exposure at multiple life stages cumulatively produces effects. Reproductive traits may be sensitive to different thermal environments experienced during development, but such effects have not been comprehensively measured in Lepidoptera. In this study, we investigate how elevated temperature at different life stages alters reproduction in the European corn borer moth, Ostrinia nubilalis. We tested effects of exposure to elevated temperature (28 °C) separately or additively during larval, pupal, and adult life stages compared to control temperatures (23 °C). We found that exposure to elevated pupal and adult temperature decreased the number of egg clusters produced, but exposure limited to a single stage did not significantly impact reproductive output. Furthermore, elevated temperature during the pupal stage led to a faster transition to the adult stage and elevated larval temperature altered synchrony of adult eclosion, either by itself or combined with pupal temperature exposure. These results suggest that exposure to elevated temperature during development alters reproduction in corn borers in multiple ways, including through carry-over and additive effects. Additive effects of temperature across life stages are thought to be less common than stage-specific or carry-over effects, but our results suggest thermal environments experienced at all life stages need to be considered when predicting reproductive responses of insects to heatwaves.

Experimental evolution reveals that males evolving within warmer thermal regimes improve reproductive performance under heatwave conditions in a model insect.

Climate change is increasing mean temperatures, and intensifying heatwaves. Natural populations may respond to stress through shorter-term acclimation via plasticity and/or longer-term inter-generational evolution. However, if the pace and/or extent of thermal change is too great, local extinctions occur; one potential cause in ectotherms is identified to be the heat-liability of male reproductive biology. Recent data from several species, including the beetle Tribolium castaneum, confirmed that male reproductive biology is vulnerable to heatwaves, which may constrain populations. However, such reproductive-damage may be overestimated, if there is potential to adapt to elevated mean temperatures associated with climate change via evolution and/or acclimation. Here, we tested this to evaluate whether pre-exposures could improve heatwave tolerance (adaptation or acclimation), by experimentally evolving Tribolium castaneum populations to divergent thermal regimes (30 °C vs. 38 °C). Findings across assays revealed that relative to 30 °C-regime males, males from the 38 °C regime, maintained constantly at 8 °C warmer for 25 generations, displayed an increase; (i) in post heatwave (42 °C) reproductive fitness by 55%, (ii) survival by 33%, and (iii) 32% larger testes volumes. Unexpectedly, in the acclimation assay, warm-adapted males' post-heatwave survival and reproduction were best if they experienced cool developmental acclimation beforehand, suggesting a cost to adapting to 38 °C. These results help progress knowledge of the potential for survival and reproduction to adapt to climate change; trait specific adaptation to divergent thermal regimes can occur over relatively few generations, but this capacity depended on the interaction of evolutionary and thermal acclimatory processes.

Effects of extreme temperatures and recovery potential of Gongolaria barbata from a coastal lagoon in the northern Adriatic Sea: an ex situ approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Globally, rising seawater temperatures contribute to the regression of marine macroalgal forests. Along the Istrian coastline (northern Adriatic), an isolated population of Gongolaria barbata persists in a coastal lagoon, representing one of the last marine macroalgal forests in the region. Our objective was to examine the impact of extreme temperatures on the morphology and physiology of G. barbata and test its potential for recovery after simulating marine heatwave (MHW) conditions. METHODS: We explored the occurrence of marine heatwaves in southern Istria, adjacent to the study area, in addition to extreme temperatures inside the area itself. Subsequently, we performed a thermotolerance experiment, consisting of a stress and recovery phase, in which we exposed G. barbata thalli to four extreme (28, 30, 32 and 34 °C) and one favourable (18 °C) temperature. We monitored morphological and physiological responses. KEY RESULTS: Our findings indicate a significant rise in frequency, duration and intensity of MHWs over decades on the southern Istrian coast. Experimental results show that G. barbata demonstrates potential for both morphological and physiological recovery after exposure to temperatures as high as 32 °C. However, exposure to 34 °C led to thallus decay, with limited ability to regenerate. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that G. barbata has a remarkable resilience to long-term exposure to extreme temperatures ≤32 °C and suggest that short-term exposure to temperatures beyond this, as currently recorded inside the lagoon, do not notably affect the physiology or morphology of local G. barbata. With more MHWs expected in the future, such an adapted population might represent an important donor suitable for future restoration activities along the Istrian coast. These results emphasize the resilience of this unique population, but also warn of the vulnerability of marine macroalgal forests to rising seawater temperatures in rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Responses of the mesozooplankton community to marine heatwaves: Challenges and solutions based on a long-term time series.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme weather events that have major impacts on the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide. Due to anthropogenic climate change, the occurrence of MHWs is predicted to increase in future. There is already evidence linking MHWs with reductions in biodiversity and incidence of mass mortality events in coastal ecosystems. However, because MHWs are unpredictable, the quantification of their effects on communities is challenging. Here, we use the Helgoland Roads long-term time series (German Bight, North Sea), one of the richest marine time series in the world, and implement a modified before-after control-impact (BACI) design to evaluate MHW effect on mesozooplankton communities. Mesozooplankton play an essential role in connecting primary producers to higher trophic levels, and any changes in their community structure could have far-reaching impacts on the entire ecosystem. The responses of mesozooplankton community to MHWs in terms of community structure and densities occurred mainly in spring and autumn. Abundances of seven taxa, including some of the most abundant groups (e.g. copepods), were affected either positively or negatively in response to MHWs. In contrast, we observed no clear evidence of an impact of summer and winter MHWs; instead, the density of the most common taxa remained unchanged. Our results highlight the seasonally dependent impacts of MHWs on mesozooplankton communities and the challenges in evaluating those impacts. Long-term monitoring is an important contributor to the quantification of effects of MHWs on natural populations.

Food web trophic control modulates tropical Atlantic reef ecosystems response to marine heat wave intensity and duration.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodes of anomalous warming in the ocean that can last from a few days to years. MHWs have different characteristics in terms of intensity, duration and frequency and generate thermal stress in marine ecosystems. In reef ecosystems, they are one of the main causes of the decreased presence and abundance of corals, invertebrates and fish. The deleterious capacity of thermal stress often depends on biotic factors, such as the trophic control of predators on prey. Despite the evidence of thermal stress and biotic factors affecting individual species, the combined effects of both stressors on entire reef ecosystems are much less studied. Here, using a food web modelling approach, we estimated the rate of change in species' biomass due to different MHW characteristics. Specifically, we modelled the mechanistic link between species' consumption rate and seawater temperature (thermal stressor), simulating species' biomass dynamics for different MHW characteristics under different trophic control assumptions (top-down, mixed trophic control and bottom-up). We find that total reef ecosystem biomass declined by 10% ± 5% under MHWs with severe intensity and a top-down control assumption. The bottom-up control assumption moderates the total ecosystem biomass reduction by 5% ± 5%. Irrespective of the MHW characteristics and the trophic control assumption, the most substantial biomass changes occur among top, mesopredators and corals (5% to 20% ± 10%). We show that reef ecosystems where predators exert top-down control on prey are prone to suffer species abundance declines under strong MHW events. We identify food web trophic control as a crucial driver that modulates the impacts of MHWs. Overall, our results provide a unified understanding of the interplay between abiotic stressors and biotic factors in reef ecosystems under extreme thermal events, offering insights into present baselines and future ecological states for reef ecosystems.

Climate Change and Aging: Implications for Psychiatric Care.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We reviewed recent evidence regarding the impact of climate change (specifically, high ambient temperatures, heatwaves, weather-related disasters, and air pollution) on older adults' mental health. We also summarized evidence regarding other medical problems that can occur in aging adults in connection with climate change, resulting in psychiatric manifestations or influencing psychopharmacological management. RECENT FINDINGS: Older adults can experience anxiety, depressive, and/or posttraumatic stress symptoms, as well as sleep disturbances in the aftermath of climate disasters. Cognitive deficits may occur with exposure to air pollutants, heatwaves, or post-disaster. Individuals with major neurocognitive disorders and/or preexisting psychiatric illness have a higher risk of psychiatric hospitalizations after exposure to high temperatures and air pollution. There is a growing body of research regarding psychiatric clinical presentations associated with climate change in older adults. However, there is a paucity of evidence on management strategies. Future research should investigate culturally appropriate, cost-effective psychosocial and pharmacological interventions.

Assessing climatic conditions and biotic interactions shaping the success of Cystoseira foeniculacea early-life stages.

Early-life stages of canopy-forming macroalgae are critical for the maintenance of natural populations and the success of restoration actions. Unfortunately, the abiotic conditions and biotic interactions shaping the success of these stages have received less attention than the interactions shaping the success of adults. Here, we combined field and mesocosm experiments to explore the effects of temperature, herbivory, and canopy presence on the development of early-life stages of the brown seaweed Cystoseira foeniculacea. We assessed these effects by examining changes in recruit density and size. After recruiting zygotes under laboratory conditions, we conducted one laboratory and three field experiments. In the first field experiment, the density of recruits decreased over time in all rockpools and was negatively affected by rising temperatures and turf cover. Additionally, a marine heatwave (MHW; 11 days >25°C) was recorded in the donor pools, producing strong decay in the density of transplanted recruits and a significant reduction of the mature canopy. The second field experiment tested the survival of recruits based on their positioning within the canopy. We observed a higher density of recruits when placed at the edge or outside the canopy compared to recruits placed under the canopy. In the third field experiment, an herbivory-exclusion experiment, we show how density of recruits decreased in less than 48 h in noncaged treatments. In the laboratory, we conducted a thermotolerance experiment under controlled conditions, exposing the recruits to 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31°C for 7 weeks to assess thermal impacts on their survival and growth. Temperatures above the 25°C threshold reduced the density and size of the recruits. This study sheds light on the performance of the early-life stages of a Cystoseira spp. in Macaronesia, showing a low survival ratio against the current pressures even in the context of the potential refuge provided by the intertidal rockpools.

Marine protected areas can be useful but are not a silver bullet for kelp conservation.

Kelp forests are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, but they are increasingly being degraded and lost due to a range of human-related stressors, leading to recent calls for their improved management and conservation. One of the primary tools to conserve marine species and biodiversity is the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). International commitments to protect 30% of the world's ecosystems are gaining momentum, offering a promising avenue to secure kelp forests into the Anthropocene. However, a clear understanding of the efficacy of MPAs for conserving kelp forests in a changing ocean is lacking. In this perspective, we question whether strengthened global protection will create meaningful conservation outcomes for kelp forests. We explore the benefits of MPAs for kelp conservation under a suite of different stressors, focusing on empirical evidence from protected kelp forests. We show that MPAs can be effective against some drivers of kelp loss (e.g., overgrazing, kelp harvesting), particularly when they are maintained in the long-term and enforced as no-take areas. There is also some evidence that MPAs can reduce impacts of climate change through building resilience in multi-stressor situations. However, MPAs also often fail to provide protection against ocean warming, marine heatwaves, coastal darkening, and pollution, which have emerged as dominant drivers of kelp forest loss globally. Although well-enforced MPAs should remain an important tool to protect kelp forests, successful kelp conservation will require implementing an additional suite of management solutions that target these accelerating threats.

Association between heatwaves and risk and economic burden of injury related hospitalizations in China.

BACKGROUND: Public health is greatly affected by heatwaves, especially as a result of climate change. It is unclear whether heatwaves affect injury hospitalization, especially as developing countries facing the impact of climate change. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of heatwaves on injury-related hospitalization and the economic burden. METHODS: The daily hospitalizations and meteorological data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from 23 study sites in 11 meteorological geographic zones in China. We conducted a two-stage time series analysis based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, combined with DLNM to assess the association between heatwaves and daily injury hospitalization, and to further assess the regional and national economic losses resulting from hospitalization by calculating excess hospitalization costs (direct economic losses) and labor losses (indirect economic losses). To determine the vulnerable groups and areas, we also carried out stratified analyses by age, sex, and region. RESULTS: We found that 6.542% (95%CI: 3.939%, 9.008 %) of injury hospitalization were attributable to heatwaves during warm season (May to September) from 2014 to 2019. Approximately 361,447 injury hospitalizations were attributed to heatwaves each year in China, leading to an excess economic loss of 5.173 (95%CI: 3.104, 7.196) billion CNY, of which 3.114 (95%CI: 1.454, 4.720) billion CNY for males and 4.785 (95%CI: 3.203, 6.321) billion CNY for people aged 15-64 years. The attributable fraction (AF) of injury hospitalizations due to heatwaves was the highest in the plateau mountain climate zone, followed by the subtropical monsoon climate zone and the temperate monsoon climate zone. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves significantly increase the disease and economic burden of injury hospitalizations, and vary across populations and regions. Our findings implicate the necessity for targeted measures, including raising public awareness, improving healthcare infrastructure, and developing climate resilience policies, to reduce the threat of heatwaves to vulnerable populations and the associated disease and economic burden.

Ambient heat exposure patterns and emergency department visits and hospitalizations among medicare beneficiaries 2008-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between ambient heat and all-cause and cause-specific emergency department (ED) visits and acute hospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries in the conterminous United States. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Conterminous US from 2008 and 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 2% random sample of all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries eligible for Parts A, B, and D. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific (cardiovascular, renal, and heat-related) ED visits and unplanned hospitalizations were identified using primary ICD-9 or ICD-10 diagnosis codes. We measured the association between ambient temperature - defined as daily mean temperature percentile of summer (June through September) - and the outcomes. Hazard ratios and their associated 95% confidence intervals were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for individual level demographics, comorbidities, healthcare utilization factors and zip-code level social factors. RESULTS: Among 809,636 Medicare beneficiaries (58% female, 81% non-Hispanic White, 24% <65), older beneficiaries (aged ≥65) exposed to >95th percentile temperature had a 64% elevated adjusted risk of heat-related ED visits (HR [95% CI], 1.64 [1.46,1.85]) and a 4% higher risk of all-cause acute hospitalization (1.04 [1.01,1.06]) relative to <25th temperature percentile. Younger beneficiaries (aged <65) showed increased risk of heat-related ED visits (2.69 [2.23,3.23]) and all-cause ED visits (1.03 [1.01,1.05]). The associations with heat related events were stronger in males and individuals dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. No significant differences were observed by climatic region. We observed no significant relationship between temperature percentile and risk of CV-related ED visits or renal-related ED visits. CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries from 2008 to 2019, exposure to daily mean temperature ≥ 95th percentile was associated with increased risk of heat-related ED visits, with stronger associations seen among beneficiaries <65, males, and patients with low socioeconomic position. Further longitudinal studies are needed to understand the impact of heat duration, intensity, and frequency on cause-specific hospitalization outcomes.

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor in older adults exposed to simulated indoor overheating.

PURPOSE: Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is a neuroprotective growth factor that increases in young adults during short, intense bouts of passive heat stress. However, this may not reflect the response in heat-vulnerable populations exposed to air temperatures more consistent with indoor overheating during hot weather and heatwaves, especially as the BDNF response to acute stressors may diminish with increasing age. We therefore evaluated the ambient and body temperature-dependent responses of BDNF in older adults during daylong passive heating. METHODS: Sixteen older adults (6 females; aged 66-78 years) completed 8-h exposure to four randomized ambient conditions simulating those experienced indoors during hot weather and heatwaves in continental climates: 22 °C (air-conditioning; control), 26 °C (health-agency-recommended indoor temperature limit), 31 °C, and 36 °C (non-airconditioned home); all 45% relative humidity. To further investigate upstream mechanisms of BDNF regulation during thermal strain, we also explored associations between BDNF and circulating heat shock protein 70 (HSP70; taken as an indicator of the heat shock response). RESULTS: Circulating BDNF was elevated by ~ 28% (1139 [95%CI: 166, 2112] pg/mL) at end-exposure in the 36 °C compared to the 22 °C control condition (P = 0.026; 26 °C-and 31 °C-22 °C differences: P ≥ 0.090), increasing 90 [22, 158] pg/mL per 1 °C rise in ambient temperature (linear trend: P = 0.011). BDNF was also positively correlated with mean body temperatures (P = 0.013), which increased 0.12 [0.10, 0.13]°C per 1 °C rise in ambient temperature (P < 0.001). By contrast, serum HSP70 did not change across conditions (P ≥ 0.156), nor was it associated with BDNF (P = 0.376). CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a progressive increase in circulating BDNF during indoor overheating in older adults.

Combined effects of heat waves and pesticide pollution on zooplankton communities: Does the timing of stressor matter?

Most studies assessing the combined effects of chemical and non-chemical stressors on aquatic ecosystems have been based on synchronous stressor applications. However, asynchronous exposure scenarios may be more common in nature, particularly for pulsed stressors such as heatwaves and pesticide concentration peaks. In this study, we investigated the single and combined effects of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) and a heatwave (HW) on a zooplankton community representative of a Mediterranean coastal wetland using synchronous (CPF+HW) and asynchronous (HW→CPF and CPF→HW) exposure scenarios. CPF was applied at a concentration of 0.8 µg/L (single pulse), and the HW was simulated by a temperature increase of 8°C above the control temperature (20°C) for 7 days in freshwater microcosms. The interaction between stressors in synchrony resulted in synergistic effects at the population level (Daphnia magna) and additive at the community level. The partial reduction of sensitive species resulted in an abundance increase of competing species that were more tolerant to the evaluated stressors (e.g. Moina sp.). The asynchronous exposure scenarios resulted in a similar abundance decline of sensitive populations as compared to the synchronous one; however, the timing of stressor resulted in different responses in the long term. In the HW→CPF treatment, the D. magna population recovered at least one month faster than in the CPF+HW treatment, probably due to survival selection and cross-tolerance mechanisms. In the CPF→HW treatment, the effects lasted longer than in the CPF+HW, and the population did not recover within the experimental period, most likely due to the energetic costs of detoxification and effects on internal damage recovery. The different timing and magnitude of indirect effects among the tested asynchronous scenarios resulted in more severe effects on the structure of the zooplankton community in the CPF→HW treatment. Our study highlights the relevance of considering the order of stressors to predict the long-term effects of chemicals and heatwaves both at the population and community levels.