Evaluating TROPOMI and MODIS performance to capture the dynamic of air pollution in São Paulo state: A case study during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Atmospheric pollutant data retrieved through satellite sensors are continually used to assess changes in air quality in the lower atmosphere. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several studies started to use satellite measurements to evaluate changes in air quality in many different regions worldwide. However, although satellite data is continuously validated, it is known that its accuracy may vary between monitored areas, requiring regionalized quality assessments. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate whether satellites could measure changes in the air quality of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, during the COVID-19 outbreak; and to verify the relationship between satellite-based data [Tropospheric NO2 column density and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)] and ground-based concentrations [NO2 and particulate material (PM; coarse: PM10 and fine: PM2.5)]. For this purpose, tropospheric NO2 obtained from the TROPOMI sensor and AOD retrieved from MODIS sensor data by using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm were compared with concentrations obtained from 50 automatic ground monitoring stations. The results showed low correlations between PM and AOD. For PM10, most stations showed correlations lower than 0.2, which were not significant. The results for PM2.5 were similar, but some stations showed good correlations for specific periods (before or during the COVID-19 outbreak). Satellite-based Tropospheric NO2 proved to be a good predictor for NO2 concentrations at ground level. Considering all stations with NO2 measurements, correlations >0.6 were observed, reaching 0.8 for specific stations and periods. In general, it was observed that regions with a more industrialized profile had the best correlations, in contrast with rural areas. In addition, it was observed about 57% reductions in tropospheric NO2 throughout the state of São Paulo during the COVID-19 outbreak. Variations in air pollutants were linked to the region economic vocation, since there were reductions in industrialized areas (at least 50% of the industrialized areas showed >20% decrease in NO2) and increases in areas with farming and livestock characteristics (about 70% of those areas showed increase in NO2). Our results demonstrate that Tropospheric NO2 column densities can serve as good predictors of NO2 concentrations at ground level. For MAIAC-AOD, a weak relationship was observed, requiring the evaluation of other possible predictors to describe the relationship with PM. Thus, it is concluded that regionalized assessment of satellite data accuracy is essential for assertive estimates on a regional/local level. Good quality information retrieved at specific polluted areas does not assure a worldwide use of remote sensor data.

A machine learning model to estimate ambient PM2.5 concentrations in industrialized highveld region of South Africa.

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been linked to a substantial disease burden globally, yet little has been done to estimate the population health risks of PM2.5 in South Africa due to the lack of high-resolution PM2.5 exposure estimates. We developed a random forest model to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at 1 km2 resolution in and around industrialized Gauteng Province, South Africa, by combining satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, land use, and socioeconomic data. We then compared PM2.5 concentrations in the study domain before and after the implementation of the new national air quality standards. We aimed to test whether machine learning models are suitable for regions with sparse ground observations such as South Africa and which predictors played important roles in PM2.5 modeling. The cross-validation R2 and Root Mean Square Error of our model was 0.80 and 9.40 µg/m3, respectively. Satellite AOD, seasonal indicator, total precipitation, and population were among the most important predictors. Model-estimated PM2.5 levels successfully captured the temporal pattern recorded by ground observations. Spatially, the highest annual PM2.5 concentration appeared in central and northern Gauteng, including northern Johannesburg and the city of Tshwane. Since the 2016 changes in national PM2.5 standards, PM2.5 concentrations have decreased in most of our study region, although levels in Johannesburg and its surrounding areas have remained relatively constant. This is anadvanced PM2.5 model for South Africa with high prediction accuracy at the daily level and at a relatively high spatial resolution. Our study provided a reference for predictor selection, and our results can be used for a variety of purposes, including epidemiological research, burden of disease assessments, and policy evaluation.

Advancing methodologies for applying machine learning and evaluating spatiotemporal models of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using satellite data over large regions.

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM2.5 on a 1×1 km2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000-2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 µg/m3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 µg/m3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

Spatiotemporal Imputation of MAIAC AOD Using Deep Learning with Downscaling.

Aerosols have adverse health effects and play a significant role in the climate as well. The Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) provides Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at high temporal (daily) and spatial (1 km) resolution, making it particularly useful to infer and characterize spatiotemporal variability of aerosols at a fine spatial scale for exposure assessment and health studies. However, clouds and conditions of high surface reflectance result in a significant proportion of missing MAIAC AOD. To fill these gaps, we present an imputation approach using deep learning with downscaling. Using a baseline autoencoder, we leverage residual connections in deep neural networks to boost learning and parameter sharing to reduce overfitting, and conduct bagging to reduce error variance in the imputations. Downscaled through a similar auto-encoder based deep residual network, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) GMI Replay Simulation (M2GMI) data were introduced to the network as an important gap-filling feature that varies in space to be used for missingness imputations. Imputing weekly MAIAC AOD from 2000 to 2016 over California, a state with considerable geographic heterogeneity, our full (non-full) residual network achieved mean R2 = 0.94 (0.86) [RMSE = 0.007 (0.01)] in an independent test, showing considerably better performance than a regular neural network or non-linear generalized additive model (mean R2 = 0.78-0.81; mean RMSE = 0.013-0.015). The adjusted imputed as well as combined imputed and observed MAIAC AOD showed strong correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD (R = 0.83; R2 = 0.69, RMSE = 0.04). Our results show that we can generate reliable imputations of missing AOD through a deep learning approach, having important downstream air quality modeling applications.

Impacts of snow and cloud covers on satellite-derived PM2.5 levels.

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely employed to evaluate ground fine particle (PM2.5) levels, whereas snow/cloud covers often lead to a large proportion of non-random missing AOD values. As a result, the fully covered and unbiased PM2.5 estimates will be hard to generate. Among the current approaches to deal with the data gap issue, few have considered the cloud-AOD relationship and none of them have considered the snow-AOD relationship. This study examined the impacts of snow and cloud covers on AOD and PM2.5 and made full- coverage PM2.5 predictions by considering these impacts. To estimate missing AOD values, daily gap-filling models with snow/cloud fractions and meteorological covariates were developed using the random forest algorithm. By using these models in New York State, a daily AOD data set with a 1-km resolution was generated with a complete coverage. The "out-of-bag" R2 of the gap-filling models averaged 0.93 with an interquartile range from 0.90 to 0.95. Subsequently, a random forest-based PM2.5 prediction model with the gap-filled AOD and covariates was built to predict fully covered PM2.5 estimates. A ten-fold cross-validation for the prediction model showed a good performance with an R2 of 0.82. In the gap-filling models, the snow fraction was of higher significance to the snow season compared with the rest of the year. The prediction models fitted with/without the snow fraction also suggested the discernible changes in PM2.5 patterns, further confirming the significance of this parameter. Compared with the methods without considering snow and cloud covers, our PM2.5 prediction surfaces showed more spatial details and reflected small-scale terrain-driven PM2.5 patterns. The proposed methods can be generalized to the areas with extensive snow/cloud covers and large proportions of missing satellite AOD data for predicting PM2.5 levels with high resolutions and complete coverage.

Satellite-based view of the aerosol spatial and temporal variability in the Córdoba region (Argentina) using over ten years of high-resolution data.

Space-based observations offer a unique opportunity to investigate the atmosphere and its changes over decadal time scales, particularly in regions lacking in situ and/or ground based observations. In this study, we investigate temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric particulate matter (aerosol) over the urban area of Córdoba (central Argentina) using over ten years (2003-2015) of high-resolution (1 km) satellite-based retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD). This fine resolution is achieved exploiting the capabilities of a recently developed inversion algorithm (Multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction, MAIAC) applied to the MODIS sensor datasets of the NASA-Terra and -Aqua platforms. Results of this investigation show a clear seasonality of AOD over the investigated area. This is found to be shaped by an intricate superposition of aerosol sources, acting over different spatial scales and affecting the region with different yearly cycles. During late winter and spring (August-October), local as well as near- and long-range transported biomass burning (BB) aerosols enhance the Córdoba aerosol load, and AOD levels reach their maximum values (> 0.35 at 0.47µm). The fine AOD spatial resolution allowed to disclose that, in this period, AOD maxima are found in the rural/agricultural area around the city, reaching up to the city boundaries pinpointing that fires of local and near-range origin play a major role in the AOD enhancement. A reverse spatial AOD gradient is found from December to March, the urban area showing AODs 40 to 80% higher than in the city surroundings. In fact, during summer, the columnar aerosol load over the Córdoba region is dominated by local (urban and industrial) sources, likely coupled to secondary processes driven by enhanced radiation and mixing effects within a deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL). With the support of modelled AOD data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), we further investigated into the chemical nature of AOD. The results suggest that mineral dust is also an important aerosol component in Córdoba, with maximum impact from November to February. The use of a long-term dataset finally allowed a preliminary assessment of AOD trends over the Córdoba region. For those months in which local sources and secondary processes were found to dominate the AOD (December to March), we found a positive AOD trend in the Córdoba outskirts, mainly in the areas with maximum urbanization/population growth over the investigated decade. Conversely, a negative AOD trend (up to -0.1 per decade) is observed all over the rural area of Córdoba during the BB season, this being attributed to a decrease of fires both at the local and the continental scale.

An example of aerosol pattern variability over bright surface using high resolution MODIS MAIAC: The eastern and western areas of the Dead Sea and environs.

The extreme rate of evaporation of the Dead Sea (DS) has serious implicatios for the surrounding area, including atmospheric conditions. This study analyzes the aerosol properties over the western and eastern parts of the DS during the year 2013, using MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) for MODIS, which retrieves aerosol optical depth (AOD) data at a resolution of 1km. The main goal of the study is to evaluate MAIAC over the study area and determine, for the first time, the prevailing aerosol spatial patterns. First, the MAIAC-derived AOD data was compared with data from three nearby AERONET sites (Nes Ziona - an urban site, and Sede Boker and Masada - two arid sites), and with the conventional Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) retrievals for the same days and locations, on a monthly basis throughout 2013. For the urban site, the correlation coefficient (r) for DT/DB products showed better performance than MAIAC (r=0.80, 0.75, and 0.64 respectively) year-round. However, in the arid zones, MAIAC showed better correspondence to AERONET sites than the conventional retrievals (r=0.58-0.60 and 0.48-0.50 respectively). We investigated the difference in AOD levels, and its variability, between the Dead Sea coasts on a seasonal basis and calculated monthly/seasonal AOD averages for presenting AOD patterns over arid zones. Thus, we demonstrated that aerosol concentrations show a strong preference for the western coast, particularly during the summer season. This preference, is most likely a result of local anthropogenic emissions combined with the typical seasonal synoptic conditions, the Mediterranean Sea breeze, and the region complex topography. Our results also indicate that a large industrial zone showed higher AOD levels compared to an adjacent reference-site, i.e., 13% during the winter season.

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon.

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

Scaling estimates of vegetation structure in Amazonian tropical forests using multi-angle MODIS observations.

Detailed knowledge of vegetation structure is required for accurate modelling of terrestrial ecosystems, but direct measurements of the three dimensional distribution of canopy elements, for instance from LiDAR, are not widely available. We investigate the potential for modelling vegetation roughness, a key parameter for climatological models, from directional scattering of visible and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance acquired from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compare our estimates across different tropical forest types to independent measures obtained from: (1) airborne laser scanning (ALS), (2) spaceborne Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS)/ICESat, and (3) the spaceborne SeaWinds/QSCAT. Our results showed linear correlation between MODIS-derived anisotropy to ALS-derived entropy (r2= 0.54, RMSE=0.11), even in high biomass regions. Significant relationships were also obtained between MODIS-derived anisotropy and GLAS-derived entropy (0.52≤ r2≤ 0.61; p<0.05), with similar slopes and offsets found throughout the season, and RMSE between 0.26 and 0.30 (units of entropy). The relationships between the MODIS-derived anisotropy and backscattering measurements (σ0) from SeaWinds/QuikSCAT presented an r2 of 0.59 and a RMSE of 0.11. We conclude that multi-angular MODIS observations are suitable to extrapolate measures of canopy entropy across different forest types, providing additional estimates of vegetation structure in the Amazon.

Estimating daily PM2.5 and PM10 across the complex geo-climate region of Israel using MAIAC satellite-based AOD data.

Estimates of exposure to PM2.5 are often derived from geographic characteristics based on land-use regression or from a limited number of fixed ground monitors. Remote sensing advances have integrated these approaches with satellite-based measures of aerosol optical depth (AOD), which is spatially and temporally resolved, allowing greater coverage for PM2.5 estimations. Israel is situated in a complex geo-climatic region with contrasting geographic and weather patterns, including both dark and bright surfaces within a relatively small area. Our goal was to examine the use of MODIS-based MAIAC data in Israel, and to explore the reliability of predicted PM2.5 and PM10 at a high spatiotemporal resolution. We applied a three stage process, including a daily calibration method based on a mixed effects model, to predict ground PM2.5 and PM10 over Israel. We later constructed daily predictions across Israel for 2003-2013 using spatial and temporal smoothing, to estimate AOD when satellite data were missing. Good model performance was achieved, with out-of-sample cross validation R2 values of 0.79 and 0.72 for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. Model predictions had little bias, with cross-validated slopes (predicted vs. observed) of 0.99 for both the PM2.5 and PM10 models. To our knowledge, this is the first study that utilizes high resolution 1km MAIAC AOD retrievals for PM prediction while accounting for geo-climate complexities, such as experienced in Israel. This novel model allowed the reconstruction of long- and short-term spatially resolved exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 in Israel, which could be used in the future for epidemiological studies.

Satellite observed widespread decline in Mongolian grasslands largely due to overgrazing.

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70% of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or over-grazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12% on average) in MODIS observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40% below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80% of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30% of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50% in areas with denser vegetation cover (P < 0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r(2)  = 0.10, P < 0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data.

BACKGROUND: The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. METHODS: We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. RESULTS: Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R2=0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R2=0.87, R2=0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). CONCLUSION: Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Evaluation and analysis of long-term MODIS MAIAC aerosol products in China.

NASA has released the latest Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Collection 6 (C6) and Collection 6.1 (C6.1) aerosol optical depth (AOD) products with 1 km spatial resolution. This study validated and compared C6 and C6.1 MAIAC AOD products with AERONET observations in terms of accuracy and stability, and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of AOD at different scales in China. The results show that the overall accuracy of MAIAC products is good, with correlation coefficient (R) > 0.9, mean bias (BIAS) < 0.015, and the fraction within the expected error (EE) > 68 %. However, after the algorithm update, the accuracy of Terra MAIAC aerosol products C6.1 has significantly decreased. The accuracy of the products varies with the region. The accuracy of C6.1 in North China, Central East China, and West China, is comparable to or even exceeds that of C6, but performs poorly in South China. In addition, the stability of the updated C6.1 MAIAC aerosol products has not seen significantly improvement. The metrics of no product can all meet the stability goals of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS, 0.02 per decade) in China. C6.1 improves the retrieval frequency in many regions and temporarily solves the problem of AOD discontinuity at the boundaries of different aerosol models in C6, but there are some fixed climatological AOD blocks (AOD = 0.014) in the eastern Tibetan Plateau region. Both C6 and C6.1 can capture similar annual variation characteristics of AOD to those observed at the AERONET sites. The study provides possible references for improving the MAIAC algorithm and building long-term stable aerosol records.

An improved meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth estimation method by combining a physical mechanism model with a two-stage model.

A two-stage model integrating a spatiotemporal linear mixed effect (STLME) and a geographic weight regression (GWR) model is proposed to improve the meteorological variables-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval method (Elterman retrieval model-ERM). The proposed model is referred to as the STG-ERM model. The STG-ERM model is applied over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China for the years 2019 and 2020. The results show that data coverage increased by 39.0% in 2019 and 40.5% in 2020. Cross-validation of the retrieval results versus multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) AOD shows the substantial improvement of the STG-ERM model over earlier meteorological models for AOD estimation, with a determination coefficient (R2) of daily AOD of 0.86, root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) and the relative prediction error (RPE) of 0.10 and 36.14% in 2019 and R2 of 0.86, RMSE of 0.12 and RPE of 37.86% in 2020. The fused annual mean AOD indicates strong spatial variation with high value in south plain and low value in northwestern mountainous areas of the BTH region. The overall spatial seasonal mean AOD ranges from 0.441 to 0.586, demonstrating strongly seasonal variation. The coverage of STG-ERM retrieved AOD, as determined in this exercise by leaving out part of the meteorological data, affects the accuracy of fused AOD. The coverage of the meteorological data has smaller impact on the fused AOD in the districts with low annual mean AOD of less than 0.35 than that in the districts with high annual mean AOD of greater than 0.6. If available, continuous daily meteorological data with high spatiotemporal resolution can improve the model performance and the accuracy of fused AOD. The STG-ERM model may serve as a valuable approach to provide data to fill gaps in satellite-retrieved AOD products.

[Remote Sensing Model for Estimating Atmospheric PM2.5 Concentration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area].

PM2.5 is extremely harmful to the atmospheric environment and human health, and a timely and accurate understanding of PM2.5 with high spatial and temporal resolution plays an important role in the prevention and control of air pollution. Based on multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction algorithm (MAIAC), 1 km AOD products, ERA5 meteorological data, and pollutant concentrations (CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during 2015-2020, a geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR), BP neural network model (BPNN), support vector machine regression model (SVR), and random forest model (RF) were established, respectively, to estimate PM2.5 concentration. The results showed that the estimation ability of the RF model was better than that of the BPNN, SVR, and GTWR models. The correlation coefficients of the BPNN, SVR, GTWR, and RF models were 0.922, 0.920, 0.934, and 0.981, respectively. The RMSE values were 7.192, 7.101, 6.385, and 3.670 µg·m-3. The MAE values were 5.482, 5.450, 4.849, and 2.323 µg·m-3, respectively. The RF model had the best effect during winter, followed by that during summer, and again during spring and autumn, with correlation coefficients above 0.976 in the prediction of different seasons. The RF model could be used to predict the PM2.5 concentration in the Greater Bay Area. In terms of time, the daily ρ(PM2.5) of cities in the Greater Bay Area showed a trend of "decreasing first and then increasing" in 2021, with the highest values ranging from 65.550 µg·m-3 to 112.780 µg·m-3 and the lowest values ranging from 5.000 µg·m-3 to 7.899 µg·m-3. The monthly average concentration showed a U-shaped distribution, and the concentration began to decrease in January and gradually increased after reaching a trough in June. Seasonally, it was characterized by the highest concentration during winter, the lowest during summer, and the transition during spring and autumn. The annual average ρ(PM2.5) of the Greater Bay Area was 28.868 µg·m-3, which was lower than the secondary concentration limit. Spatially, there was a "northwest to southeast" decreasing distribution of PM2.5 in 2021, and the high-pollution areas clustered in the central part of the Greater Bay Area, represented by Foshan. Low concentration areas were mainly distributed in the eastern part of Huizhou, Hong Kong, Macao, Zhuhai, and other coastal areas. The spatial distribution of PM2.5 in different seasons also showed heterogeneity and regionality. The RF model estimated the PM2.5 concentration with high accuracy, which provides a scientific basis for the health risk assessment associated with PM2.5 pollution in the Greater Bay Area.

Accounting for the aerosol type and additional satellite-borne aerosol products improves the prediction of PM2.5 concentrations.

Fine airborne particles (diameter <2.5 µm; PM2.5) are recognized as a major threat to human health due to their physicochemical properties: composition, size, shape, etc. However, normally only size-fraction-specific particle concentrations are monitored. Interestingly, although the aerosol type is reported as part of the aerosol optical depth retrieval from satellite observations, it has not been utilized, to date, as an auxiliary information/co-variate for PM2.5 prediction. We developed Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models that account for this information when predicting surface PM2.5. The models take as input only widely available data: satellite aerosol products with full cover and surface meteorological data. Distinct models were developed for AOD of specific aerosol types. Both the RF and XGBoost models performed well, showing moderate-to-high cross-validated adjusted R2 (RF: 0.753-0.909; XGBoost: 0.741-0.903), depending on the aerosol type and other covariates. The weighted performance of the specific aerosol-type models was higher than of the RF and XGBoost baseline models, where all the AOD retrievals were used together (the common practice). Our approach can provide improved risk estimates due to exposure to PM2.5, better resolved radiative forcing calculations, and tailored abatement surveillance of specific pollutants/sources.

Characteristics of the severe March 2021 Gobi Desert dust storm and its impact on air pollution in China.

A dust storm that formed in the north of China and the southeastern part of Mongolia in March 2021 significantly deteriorated air quality over a large area of East Asia. According to the synoptic pattern, the cause of the dust storm was a cyclone with a significant drop in pressure leading to high winds and dry components of the soil over parts of the Gobi Desert becoming airborne. Data obtained from ground-based air quality monitoring stations show that the observed hourly PM10 concentration greatly exceeded the recommended maximum of 150 µg/m3 with readings above 1500 µg/m3 in the cities of Tianjin, Baoding, Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Zhoukou. In Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Jinnan, Xining, Baotou, and Jining. In Handan, it was over 2000 µg/m3. Cities where PM10 concentration exceeded 3900 µg/m3 included Lanzhou, Hohhot, Changzhou, Alashan, Yan'an, Yulin, Hami, Jiuquan, Heze, Hotan, and Baiyin. Concentrations exceeded 7000 µg/m3 on March 15th over parts of the provinces of Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia, in the cities of Ordos, Jinchang, Wuwei and Zhongwei. According to satellite data, the area of dust covered approximately 450,000 km2. MODIS and TROPOMI data demonstrated high aerosol optical depth (AOD) (more than 1) with a high ultraviolet aerosol index (UVAI) (more than 2), confirming the predominance of dust particles during the storm. Data from CALIPSO show the presence of a dense layer of dust extending from the earth's surface to a height of about 8 km. The Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b) demonstrates high synchrony with the satellite's surface dust concentration data, ranging from 640 to 1280 µg/m3, and exceeding 2650 µg/m3 in some areas. The purpose of this study is to analyze data from ground-based sensors, satellites, and atmospheric models to better understand the March 2021 dust storm event. The results may be useful for the implementation of protective and preventive measures for both the environment and human health, including air quality control.

Deterioration of air quality associated with the 2020 US wildfires.

The wildfires of August and September 2020 in the western part of the United States were characterized by an unparalleled duration and wide geographical coverage. A particular consequence of massive wildfires includes serious health effects due to short and long-term exposure to poor air quality. Using a variety of data sources including aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ultraviolet aerosol index (UVAI), obtained with the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) and Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), combined with meteorological information from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other supporting data, the impact of wildfires on air quality is examined in the three western US states, California, Oregon, and Washington, and areas to the east. The results show that smoke aerosols not only led to a significant deterioration in air quality in these states but also affected all other states, Canada, and surrounding ocean areas. The wildfires increased the average daily surface concentration of PM2.5 posing significant health risks, especially for vulnerable populations. Large amounts of black carbon (BC) aerosols were emitted into the atmosphere. AOD and UVAI exceeded 1 and 2 over most of the country. In parts of the three western states, those values reached 3.7 and 6.6, respectively. Moreover, a reanalysis based on MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) showed that the maximum values of BC surface mass concentration during the wildfires were about 370 µg/m3. These various indicators provide a better understanding of the extent of environmental and atmospheric degradation associated with these forest fires.

Prediction of PM2.5 concentrations at unsampled points using multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression.

Numerous statistical models have established the relationship between ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5, with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm) and satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) along with other meteorological/land-related covariates. However, all the models assumed that all covariates affect the PM2.5 concentration at the same scale, and none could provide a posterior uncertainty analysis at each regression point. Therefore, a multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR) model was proposed by specifying a unique bandwidth for each covariate. However, the lack of a method for predicting values at unsampled points in the MGTWR model greatly restricts its corresponding application. Thus, this study developed a method for inferring unsampled points and used the posterior uncertainty assessment value to improve the model accuracy. With the aid of the high-resolution satellite multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) AOD product, daily PM2.5 concentrations with a 1 km × 1 km resolution were generated over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region between 2013 and 2019. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the fitted MGTWR results vary from 0.90 to 0.94 and from 10.66 to 25.11 µg/m3, respectively. The sample-based and site-based cross-validation R2 and RMSE vary from 0.81 to 0.89 and from 14.40 to 34.43 µg/m3 respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed inference method at unsampled points. With the uncertainty constraint, the sample-based and site-based validated MGTWR R2 results for all years are further improved by approximately 0.02-0.04, demonstrating the effectiveness of the posterior uncertainty assessment constraint method. These results suggest that the inference method proposed in this study is promising to overcome the defects of the MGTWR model in inferring the prediction values at unsampled points and could consequently enhance the wide applications of MGTWR modeling.

Estimating hourly PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing with satellite aerosol optical depth and a random forest approach.

Assessing short-term exposure to PM2.5 requires the concentration distribution at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Abundant researches have derived the daily predictions of fine particles, but estimating hourly PM2.5 is still a challenge restrained by the input data. The recent aerosol optical depth (AOD) product from Himawari-8 provides hourly satellite observations informative to modelling. In this study, we developed separate random forest models with and without AOD and combined the estimates to obtain a full-coverage hourly PM2.5 distribution. 10-fold cross validation R2 ranged from 0.92 to 0.95 and root mean square errors from 14.1 to 16.9 µg/m3, indicating the good model performance. Spatial convolutional layers of PM2.5 measurements and temporal accumulation effects of meteorological features were added into the model. They turned out to be of the most important predictors and improved the performance significantly. Finally, we mapped hourly PM2.5 at a 1-km resolution in Beijing during a pollution episode in 2019 and studied the pollution pattern. The study proposed a method to obtain 24-h full-coverage hourly PM2.5 estimates which are useful for acute exposure assessment in epidemiological researches.