Emergent effects of global change on consumption depend on consumers and their resources in marine systems.

A better understanding of how environmental change will affect species interactions would significantly aid efforts to scale up predictions of near-future responses to global change from individuals to ecosystems. To address this need, we used meta-analysis to quantify the individual and combined effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on consumption rates of predators and herbivores in marine ecosystems. Although the primary studies demonstrated that these environmental variables can have direct effects on consumers, our analyses highlight high variability in consumption rates in response to OA and warming. This variability likely reflects differences in local adaptation among species, as well as important methodological differences. For example, our results suggest that exposure of consumers to OA reduces consumption rates on average, yet consumption rates actually increase when both consumers and their resource(s) are concurrently exposed to the same conditions. We hypothesize that this disparity is due to increased vulnerability of prey or resource(s) in conditions of OA that offset declines in consumption. This hypothesis is supported by an analysis demonstrating clear declines in prey survival in studies that exposed only prey to future OA conditions. Our results illustrate how simultaneous OA and warming produce complex outcomes when species interact. Researchers should further explore other potential sources of variation in response, as well as the prey-driven component of any changes in consumption and the potential for interactive effects of OA and warming.

Contribution of combined stressors on density and gene expression dynamics of the copepod Temora longicornis in the North Sea.

The impact of multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors on the marine environment remains poorly understood. Therefore, we studied the contribution of environmental variables to the densities and gene expression of the dominant zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea, the calanoid copepod Temora longicornis. We observed a reduced density of copepods, which were also smaller in size, in samples taken from nearshore locations when compared to those obtained from offshore stations. To assess the factors influencing the population dynamics of this species, we applied generalised additive models. These models allowed us to quantify the relative contribution of temperature, nutrient levels, salinity, turbidity, concentrations of photosynthetic pigments, as well as chemical pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), on copepod density. Temperature and Secchi depth, a proxy for turbidity, were the most important environmental variables predicting the densities of T. longicornis, followed by summed PAH and chlorophyll concentrations. Analysing gene expression in field-collected adults, we observed significant variation in metabolic and stress-response genes. Temperature correlated significantly with genes involved in proteolytic activities, and encoding heat shock proteins. Yet, concentrations of anthropogenic chemicals did not induce significant differences in the gene expression of genes involved in the copepod's fatty acid metabolism or well-known stress-related genes, such as glutathione transferases or cytochrome P450. Our study highlights the potential of gene expression biomonitoring and underscores the significance of a changing environment in future studies.

Individual and combined impacts of carbon dioxide enrichment, heatwaves, flow velocity variability, and fine sediment deposition on stream invertebrate communities.

Climate change and land-use change are widely altering freshwater ecosystem functioning and there is an urgent need to understand how these broad stressor categories may interact in future. While much research has focused on mean temperature increases, climate change also involves increasing variability of both water temperature and flow regimes and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, all with potential to alter stream invertebrate communities. Deposited fine sediment is a pervasive land-use stressor with widespread impacts on stream invertebrates. Sedimentation may be managed at the catchment scale; thus, uncovering interactions with these three key climate stressors may assist mitigation of future threats. This is the first experiment to investigate the individual and combined effects of enriched CO2, heatwaves, flow velocity variability, and fine sediment on realistic stream invertebrate communities. Using 128 mesocosms simulating small stony-bottomed streams in a 7-week experiment, we manipulated dissolved CO2 (ambient; enriched), fine sediment (no sediment; 300 g dry sediment), temperature (ambient; two 7-day heatwaves), and flow velocity (constant; variable). All treatments changed community composition. CO2 enrichment reduced abundances of Orthocladiinae and Chironominae and increased Copepoda abundance. Variable flow velocity had only positive effects on invertebrate abundances (7 of 13 common taxa and total abundance), in contrast to previous experiments showing negative impacts of reduced velocity. CO2 was implicated in most stressor interactions found, with CO2 × sediment interactions being most common. Communities forming under enriched CO2 conditions in sediment-impacted mesocosms had ~20% fewer total invertebrates than those with either treatment alone. Copepoda abundances doubled in CO2-enriched mesocosms without sediment, whereas no CO2 effect occurred in mesocosms with sediment. Our findings provide new insights into potential future impacts of climate change and land use in running freshwaters, in particular highlighting the potential for elevated CO2 to interact with fine sediment deposition in unpredictable ways.

Lake browning counteracts cyanobacteria responses to nutrients: Evidence from phytoplankton dynamics in large enclosure experiments and comprehensive observational data.

Lakes worldwide are affected by multiple stressors, including climate change. This includes massive loading of both nutrients and humic substances to lakes during extreme weather events, which also may disrupt thermal stratification. Since multi-stressor effects vary widely in space and time, their combined ecological impacts remain difficult to predict. Therefore, we combined two consecutive large enclosure experiments with a comprehensive time-series and a broad-scale field survey to unravel the combined effects of storm-induced lake browning, nutrient enrichment and deep mixing on phytoplankton communities, focusing particularly on potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms. The experimental results revealed that browning counteracted the stimulating effect of nutrients on phytoplankton and caused a shift from phototrophic cyanobacteria and chlorophytes to mixotrophic cryptophytes. Light limitation by browning was identified as the likely mechanism underlying this response. Deep-mixing increased microcystin concentrations in clear nutrient-enriched enclosures, caused by upwelling of a metalimnetic Planktothrix rubescens population. Monitoring data from a 25-year time-series of a eutrophic lake and from 588 northern European lakes corroborate the experimental results: Browning suppresses cyanobacteria in terms of both biovolume and proportion of the total phytoplankton biovolume. Both the experimental and observational results indicated a lower total phosphorus threshold for cyanobacterial bloom development in clearwater lakes (10-20 µg P L-1 ) than in humic lakes (20-30 µg P L-1 ). This finding provides management guidance for lakes receiving more nutrients and humic substances due to more frequent extreme weather events.

Integrating water balance mechanisms into predictions of insect responses to climate change.

Efficient water balance is key to insect success. However, the hygric environment is changing with climate change; although there are compelling models of thermal vulnerability, water balance is often neglected in predictions. Insects survive desiccating conditions by reducing water loss, increasing their total amount of water (and replenishing it) and increasing their tolerance of dehydration. The physiology underlying these traits is reasonably well understood, as are the sources of variation and phenotypic plasticity. However, water balance and thermal tolerance intersect at high temperatures, such that mortality is sometimes determined by dehydration, rather than heat (especially during long exposures in dry conditions). Furthermore, water balance and thermal tolerance sometimes interact to determine survival. In this Commentary, we propose identifying a threshold where the cause of mortality shifts between dehydration and temperature, and that it should be possible to predict this threshold from trait measurements (and perhaps eventually a priori from physiological or -omic markers).

Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem.

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.

Cumulative Impacts of Oil Pollution, Ocean Warming, and Coastal Freshening on the Feeding of Arctic Copepods.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes, and biota are exposed to multiple stressors, including pollution and climate change. Still, little is known about their joint impact. Here, we investigated the cumulative impact of crude oil, warming, and freshening on the copepod species Calanus glacialis and Calanus finmarchicus. Adult females were exposed to ambient conditions (control; 0 °C + 33 psu) and combined warming and freshening: 5 °C + 27 psu (Scenario 1), 5 °C + 20 psu (Scenario 2) for 6 days. All three conditions were tested with and without dispersed crude oil. In Scenario 1, fecal pellet production (FPP) significantly increased by 40-78% and 42-122% for C. glacialis and C. finmarchicus, respectively. In Scenario 2, FPP decreased by 6-57% for C. glacialis, while it fluctuated for C. finmarchicus. For both species, oil had the strongest effect on FPP, leading to a 68-83% reduction. This overshadowed the differences between climatic scenarios. All variables (temperature, salinity, and oil) had significant single effects and several joint effects on FPP. Our results demonstrate that Arctic copepods are sensitive to environmentally realistic concentrations of crude oil and climate change. Strong reductions in feeding can reduce the copepods' energy content with potential large-scale impacts on the Arctic marine food web.

Multistress Interplay: Time and Duration of Ocean Acidification Modulate the Toxicity of Mercury and Other Metals.

The current understanding of multistress interplay assumes stresses occur in perfect synchrony, but this assumption is rarely met in the natural marine ecosystem. To understand the interplay between nonperfectly overlapped stresses in the ocean, we manipulated a multigenerational experiment (F0-F3) to explore how different temporal scenarios of ocean acidification will affect mercury toxicity in a marine copepod Pseudodiaptomus annandalei. We found that the scenario of past acidification aggravated mercury toxicity but current and persistent acidification mitigated its toxicity. We specifically performed a proteomics analysis for the copepods of F3. The results indicated that current and persistent acidification initiated the energy compensation for development and mercury efflux, whereas past acidification lacked the barrier of H+ and had dysfunction in the detoxification and efflux system, providing a mechanistic understanding of mercury toxicity under different acidification scenarios. Furthermore, we conducted a meta-analysis on marine animals, demonstrating that different acidification scenarios could alter the toxicity of several other metals, despite evidence from nonsynchronous scenarios remaining limited. Our study thus demonstrates that time and duration of ocean acidification modulate mercury toxicity in marine copepods and suggests that future studies should move beyond the oversimplified scenario of perfect synchrony in understanding multistress interaction.

High parasite prevalence in an ecosystem engineer correlated with both local- and landscape-level factors.

Spatial variation in parasitic infection may have many physical and biological drivers. Uncovering these drivers may be especially important for parasites of ecosystem engineers because the engineers are foundational to their communities. Oysters are an important coastal ecosystem engineer that have declined drastically worldwide, in part due to enhanced cases of lethal oyster diseases, such as Dermo and MSX, caused by the protozoan parasites Perkinsus marinus and Haplosporidium nelsoni, respectively. Besides water quality and hydrodynamics, there is little information on how other variables influence the prevalence and intensity of these pathogens in oysters across a regional scale. To examine drivers of spatial variation in these oyster parasites-including host size, local reef properties, and landscape properties-we sampled 24 reefs systematically spread along the coast of Georgia, USA. Across sites, we found universally high prevalence of oysters with at least one of these parasites (91.02% ± 8.89, mean ± SD). Not only are high levels of parasite prevalence potentially problematic for a pivotal ecosystem engineer, but also low spatial variability may limit the explanatory power of variables across a regional scale. Our statistical models explained between 18 and 42% of the variation in spatial patterns of prevalence and intensity of these microparasites. Interestingly, landscape context was a positive predictor of P. marinus, but a negative predictor of H. nelsoni. Overall, our findings suggest that factors driving parasite prevalence and intensity operate across multiple spatial scales, and the same factor can both facilitate and hinder different parasites within the same host species.

Combined effects of heat waves and pesticide pollution on zooplankton communities: Does the timing of stressor matter?

Most studies assessing the combined effects of chemical and non-chemical stressors on aquatic ecosystems have been based on synchronous stressor applications. However, asynchronous exposure scenarios may be more common in nature, particularly for pulsed stressors such as heatwaves and pesticide concentration peaks. In this study, we investigated the single and combined effects of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) and a heatwave (HW) on a zooplankton community representative of a Mediterranean coastal wetland using synchronous (CPF+HW) and asynchronous (HW→CPF and CPF→HW) exposure scenarios. CPF was applied at a concentration of 0.8 µg/L (single pulse), and the HW was simulated by a temperature increase of 8°C above the control temperature (20°C) for 7 days in freshwater microcosms. The interaction between stressors in synchrony resulted in synergistic effects at the population level (Daphnia magna) and additive at the community level. The partial reduction of sensitive species resulted in an abundance increase of competing species that were more tolerant to the evaluated stressors (e.g. Moina sp.). The asynchronous exposure scenarios resulted in a similar abundance decline of sensitive populations as compared to the synchronous one; however, the timing of stressor resulted in different responses in the long term. In the HW→CPF treatment, the D. magna population recovered at least one month faster than in the CPF+HW treatment, probably due to survival selection and cross-tolerance mechanisms. In the CPF→HW treatment, the effects lasted longer than in the CPF+HW, and the population did not recover within the experimental period, most likely due to the energetic costs of detoxification and effects on internal damage recovery. The different timing and magnitude of indirect effects among the tested asynchronous scenarios resulted in more severe effects on the structure of the zooplankton community in the CPF→HW treatment. Our study highlights the relevance of considering the order of stressors to predict the long-term effects of chemicals and heatwaves both at the population and community levels.

Impacts of sequential salinity and heat stress are recovery time-specific in freshwater crustacean, Daphnia pulicaria.

Stressors can interact to affect animal fitness, but we have limited knowledge about how temporal variation in stressors may impact their combined effect. This limits our ability to predict the outcomes of pollutants and future dynamic environmental changes. Elevated salinity in freshwater ecosystems has been observed worldwide. Meanwhile, heatwaves have become more frequent and intensified as an outcome of climate change. These two stressors can jointly affect organisms; however, their interaction has rarely been explored in the context of freshwater ecosystems. We conducted lab experiments using Daphnia pulicaria, a key species in lakes, to investigate how elevated salinity and heatwave conditions collectively affect freshwater organisms. We also monitored the impacts of various recovery times between the two stressors. Daphnia physiological conditions (metabolic rate, Na+-K+-ATPase (NKA) activity, and lipid peroxidation level) and life history traits (survival, fecundity, and growth) in response to salt stress as well as mortality in heat treatment were examined. We found that Daphnia responded to elevated salinity by upregulating NKA activity and increasing metabolic rate, causing a high lipid peroxidation level. Survival, fecundity, and growth were all negatively affected by this stressor. These impacts on physiological conditions and life history traits persisted for a few days after the end of the exposure. Heat treatments caused mortality in Daphnia, which increased with rising temperature. Results also showed that individuals that experienced salt exposure were more susceptible to subsequent heat stress, but this effect decreased with increasing recovery time between stressors. Findings from this work suggest that the legacy effects from a previous stressor can reduce individual resistance to a subsequent stressor, adding great difficulties to the prediction of outcomes of multiple stressors. Our work also demonstrates that cross-tolerance/susceptibility and the associated mechanisms remain unclear, necessitating further investigation.

Response of a pan-European fish index (EFI+) to multiple pressures in rivers across Spain.

Rivers are ecosystems highly threatened by human activities and fish are an invaluable tool to measure and communicate environmental degradation and restoration. Fish bioassessment is crucial but notoriously difficult in Mediterranean-climate streams for a number of reasons, including low local species richness, faunas with high spatial turnover and generalist species, and scarcity of reference sites. In this study, we conducted the most comprehensive test of the pan-European fish index (EFI+) in the Iberian Peninsula, analysing its response to multiple anthropogenic pressures. We compiled a database, which we provide online, with 2970 electrofishing samples across Spain, involving 100,732 fish of 69 species. Principal component analyses of many quantitative variables were used to create new synthetic anthropogenic pressure indices. Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the relationship between these pressures and the fish index (EFI+) and its four individual metrics scores (i.e., density of species intolerant to oxygen depletion, density of fish ≤150 mm of species intolerant to habitat degradation, richness of species of rheophilic reproduction habitat, and density of species of lithophilic reproduction habitat). We also obtained the same models but including the river basin district to test for spatial or methodological differences. Our results indicate that both the EFI+ index and its individual metrics respond to various anthropogenic pressures. These pressures explained about 36% of the variance of EFI+ values. Notably, downstream and mainstream reaches with higher agricultural or urban land uses, increased hydrologic alteration, and water and habitat quality impairment exhibited lower EFI+ values. Although less variance was explained for the individual metrics than for the fish index, they responded as expected to the different pressures. For instance, the richness of rheophilic species and the number of lithophilic fish decreased with hydrologic alteration, while the number of fish intolerant to oxygen depletion decreased with water quality impairment. Similar correlations were observed when river basin district was included in the model, but with higher explained variation and greater significance of the pressures. While it is possible to develop regional indices with more metrics and a stronger correlation with anthropogenic pressures, EFI+ is the only fish index that has been validated throughout the Spanish peninsular territory. Our results support the use of EFI+ in intercalibration exercises across Spain until better regional indices are developed.

Ecological network analysis of traits reveals variable response capacity to stress.

Response diversity increases the potential 'options' for ecological communities to respond to stress (i.e. response capacity). An indicator of community response diversity is the diversity of different traits associated with their capacity to be resistant to stress, to recover and to regulate ecosystem functions. We conducted a network analysis of traits using benthic macroinvertebrate community data from a large-scale field experiment to explore the loss of response diversity along environmental gradients. We elevated sediment nutrient concentrations (a process that occurs with eutrophication) at 24 sites (in 15 estuaries) with varying environmental conditions (water column turbidity and sediment properties). Macroinvertebrate community response capacity to nutrient stress was dependent on the baseline trait network complexity in the ambient community (i.e. non-enriched sediments). The greater the complexity of the baseline network, the less variable the network response to nutrient stress was; in contrast, more variable responses to nutrient stress occurred with simpler networks. Thus, stressors or environmental variables that shift baseline network complexity also shift the capacity for these ecosystems to respond to additional stressors. Empirical studies that explore the mechanisms responsible for loss of resilience are essential to inform our ability to predict changes in ecological states.

Tipping points and interactive effects of chronic human disturbance and acute heat stress on coral diversity.

Multiple anthropogenic stressors co-occur ubiquitously in natural ecosystems. However, multiple stressor studies often produce conflicting results, potentially because the nature and direction of stressor interactions depends upon the strength of the underlying stressors. Here, we first examine how coral α- and ß-diversities vary across sites spanning a gradient of chronic local anthropogenic stress before and after a prolonged marine heatwave. Developing a multiple stressor framework that encompasses non-discrete stressors, we then examine interactions between the continuous and discrete stressors. We provide evidence of additive effects, antagonistic interactions (with heatwave-driven turnover in coral community composition diminishing as the continuous stressor increased), and tipping points (at which the response of coral Hill-richness to stressors changed from additive to near synergistic). We show that community-level responses to multiple stressors can vary, and even change qualitatively, with stressor intensity, underscoring the importance of examining complex, but realistic continuous stressors to understand stressor interactions and their ecological impacts.

Temperature and turbidity interact synergistically to alter anti-predator behaviour in the Trinidadian guppy.

Due to climate change, freshwater habitats are facing increasing temperatures and more extreme weather that disrupts water flow. Together with eutrophication and sedimentation from farming, quarrying and urbanization, freshwaters are becoming more turbid as well as warmer. Predators and prey need to be able to respond to one another adaptively, yet how changes in temperature and turbidity interact to affect predator-prey behaviour remains unexplored. Using a fully factorial design, we tested the combined effects of increased temperature and turbidity on the behaviour of guppy shoals (Poecilia reticulata) in the presence of one of their natural cichlid predators, the blue acara (Andinoacara pulcher). Our results demonstrate that the prey and predator were in closest proximity in warmer, turbid water, with an interaction between these stressors showing a greater than additive effect. There was also an interaction between the stressors in the inter-individual distances between the prey, where shoal cohesion increased with temperature in clear water, but decreased when temperature increased in turbid water. The closer proximity to predators and reduction in shoaling in turbid, warmer water may increase the risk of predation for the guppy, suggesting that the combined effects of elevated temperature and turbidity may favour predators rather than prey.

Triploid Pacific oysters exhibit stress response dysregulation and elevated mortality following heatwaves.

Polyploidy has been suggested to negatively impact environmental stress tolerance, resulting in increased susceptibility to extreme climate events. In this study, we compared the genomic and physiological response of diploid (2n) and triploid (3n) Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) to conditions present during an atmospheric heatwave that impacted the Pacific Northwestern region of the United States in the summer of 2021. Climate stressors were applied either singly (single stressor; elevated seawater temperature, 30°C) or in succession (multiple stressor; elevated seawater temperature followed by aerial emersion at 44°C), replicating conditions present within the intertidal over a tidal cycle during the event. Oyster mortality rate was elevated within stress treatments with respect to the control and was significantly higher in triploids than diploids following multiple stress exposure (36.4% vs. 14.8%). Triploids within the multiple stressor treatment exhibited signs of energetic limitation, including metabolic depression, a significant reduction in ctenidium Na+ /K+ ATPase activity, and the dysregulated expression of genes associated with stress response, innate immunity, glucose metabolism, and mitochondrial function. Functional enrichment analysis of ploidy-specific gene sets identified that biological processes associated with metabolism, stress tolerance, and immune function were overrepresented within triploids across stress treatments. Our results suggest that triploidy impacts the transcriptional regulation of key processes that underly the stress response of Pacific oysters, resulting in downstream shifts in physiological tolerance limits that may increase susceptibility to extreme climate events that present multiple environmental stressors. The impact of chromosome set manipulation on the climate resilience of marine organisms has important implications for domestic food security within future climate scenarios, especially as triploidy induction becomes an increasingly popular tool to elicit reproductive control across a wide range of species used within marine aquaculture.

The combined effects of treated sewage discharge and land use on rivers.

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors. Release of treated sewage effluent and pollution from agricultural or urban sources can independently reduce water quality with implications for ecological communities. However, our knowledge of the combined effects of these stressors is limited. We performed a field study to quantify the combined effect of treated sewage discharge and land use on nutrient concentrations, sewage fungus presence and communities of macroinvertebrates and benthic algae. Over three seasons in four rivers we found that a model which included an interaction between sewage pollution and time of the year (i.e. months) was the best predictor of nutrient concentrations and the abundance of algae and sewage fungus. Both macroinvertebrate and algae communities shifted downstream of sewage input. Specifically, more tolerant groups, such as cyanobacteria and oligochaetes, were more abundant. The EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Tricoptera) water quality score was best explained by an interaction between month and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Overall, our results show that sewage discharge has a significant impact on water quality and benthic riverine communities, regardless of the surrounding land uses. Agricultural inputs, however, could be more important than treated sewage discharge in reducing the abundance of sensitive invertebrate taxa. We need both improvements to wastewater treatment processes and reductions in agricultural pollution to reduce threats to vulnerable freshwater communities.

Winter is coming: Interactions of multiple stressors in winter and implications for the natural world.

Winter is a key driver of ecological processes in freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in higher latitudes. Species have evolved various adaptive strategies to cope with food limitations and the cold and dark wintertime. However, human-induced climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are impacting organisms in winter in unpredictable ways. In this paper, we show that global change experiments investigating multiple stressors have predominantly been conducted during summer months. However, effects of anthropogenic stressors sometimes differ between winter and other seasons, necessitating comprehensive investigations. Here, we outline a framework for understanding the different effects of anthropogenic stressors in winter compared to other seasons and discuss the primary mechanisms that will alter ecological responses of organisms (microbes, animals and plants). For instance, while the magnitude of some anthropogenic stressors can be greater in winter than in other seasons (e.g. some pollutants), others may alleviate natural winter stress (e.g. warmer temperatures). These changes can have immediate, delayed or carry-over effects on organisms during winter or later seasons. Interactions between stressors may also vary with season. We call for a renewed research direction focusing on multiple stressor effects on winter ecology and evolution to fully understand, and predict, how ecosystems will fare under changing winters. We also argue the importance of incorporating the interactions of anthropogenic stressors with winter into ecological risk assessments, management and conservation efforts.

Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk.

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.

Warming and hypoxia reduce the performance and survival of northern bay scallops (Argopecten irradians irradians) amid a fishery collapse.

Warming temperatures and diminishing dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are among the most pervasive drivers of global coastal change. While regions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean are experiencing greater than average warming, the combined effects of thermal and hypoxic stress on marine life in this region are poorly understood. Populations of the northern bay scallop, Argopecten irradians irradians across the northeast United States have experienced severe declines in recent decades. This study used a combination of high-resolution (~1 km) satellite-based temperature records, long-term temperature and DO records, field and laboratory experiments, and high-frequency measures of scallop cardiac activity in an ecosystem setting to quantify decadal summer warming and assess the vulnerability of northern bay scallops to thermal and hypoxic stress across their geographic distribution. From 2003 to 2020, significant summer warming (up to ~0.2°C year-1 ) occurred across most of the bay scallop range. At a New York field site in 2020, all individuals perished during an 8-day estuarine heatwave that coincided with severe diel-cycling hypoxia. Yet at a Massachusetts site with comparable DO levels but lower daily mean temperatures, mortality was not observed. A 96-h laboratory experiment recreating observed daily temperatures of 25 or 29°C, and normoxia or hypoxia (22.2% air saturation), revealed a 120-fold increased likelihood of mortality in the 29°C-hypoxic treatment compared with control conditions, with scallop clearance rates also reduced by 97%. Cardiac activity measurements during a field deployment indicated that low DO and elevated daily temperatures modulate oxygen consumption rates and likely impact aerobic scope. Collectively, these findings suggest that concomitant thermal and hypoxic stress can have detrimental effects on scallop physiology and survival and potentially disrupt entire fisheries. Recovery of hypoxic systems may benefit vulnerable fisheries under continued warming.