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Enforcement is a challenge for effective international cooperation. In human rights and environmental law, along with many other domains of international cooperation, "naming and shaming" is often used as an enforcement mechanism in the absence of stronger alternatives. Naming and shaming hinges on the ability to identify countries whose efforts are inadequate and effectively shame them toward better behavior. Research on this approach has struggled to identify factors that explain when it influences state behavior in ways that lead to more cooperation. Via survey of a large (N = 910) novel sample of experienced diplomats involved in the design of the Paris Agreement, we find support for the proposition that naming and shaming is most accepted and effective in influencing the behavior of countries that have high-quality political institutions, strong internal concern about climate change, and ambitious and credible international climate commitments. Naming and shaming appears less effective in other countries, so further enforcement mechanisms will be needed for truly global cooperation. We also find that the climate diplomacy experts favor a process of naming and shaming that relies on official intergovernmental actors, in contrast with studies suggesting that NGOs, media, and other private actors are more effective at naming and shaming. We suggest that these tensions-the inability for naming and shaming to work effectively within the countries least motivated for climate action and the preference for namers and shamers that seem least likely to be effective-will become central policy debates around making cooperation on climate change more enforceable.
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Cambio Climático , Empleados de Gobierno , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Paris , VergüenzaRESUMEN
Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments-though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.
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The Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention on Mercury are two of the most important environmental conventions being implemented concurrently, with a focus on reducing carbon and mercury emissions, respectively. The relation between mercury and carbon influences the interactions and outcomes of these two conventions. This perspective investigates the link between mercury and CO2, assessing the consequences and exploring the policy implications of this link. We present scientific evidence showing that mercury and CO2 levels are negatively correlated under natural conditions. As a result of this negative correlation, the CO2 level under the current mercury reduction scenario is predicted to be 2.4-10.1 ppm higher than the no action scenario by 2050, equivalent to 1.0-4.8 years of CO2 increase due to human activity. The underlying causations of this negative correlation are complex and need further research. Economic analysis indicates that there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of mercury reduction actions. As reducing mercury emission may inadvertently undermine efforts to achieve climate goals, we advocate for devising a coordinated implementation strategy for carbon and mercury conventions to maximize synergies and reduce trade-offs.
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Dióxido de Carbono , Mercurio , Humanos , Mercurio/análisis , Políticas , ClimaRESUMEN
The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO2 emissions. However, this study shows that CO2 emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of CO2 emissions recovery for different sectors.
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This study aims to investigate the impact of monetary policy on firms' carbon emissions. The primary focus is on the effect of increasing interest rates on the carbon footprint of companies, both prior to and following the implementation of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The results show that there is a positive relationship between interest rates and carbon emissions indicating that in the face of increasing interest rates, companies are more likely to choose short-term financial stability above long-term sustainability objectives. This positive relationship is less prevalent following the Paris Agreement suggesting that policymakers should continue to strengthen global climate initiatives as a pressure for companies to invest in green activities. Additional evidence suggests that the impact of interest rates on carbon emissions is particularly noticeable in situations characterized by elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, weak corporate governance quality, and poor investor protection. These results are robust to endogeneity concerns, alternative measures of interest rates, carbon emission, and alternative samples.
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Huella de Carbono , Carbono , Política AmbientalRESUMEN
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in the 21st century is driving profound societal changes and playing a crucial role in optimizing energy systems to achieve carbon neutrality. Most G20 nations have developed national AI strategies and are advancing AI applications in energy, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors to meet this goal. However, disparities exist among these nations, creating an "AI divide" that needs to be addressed for regulatory consistency and fair distribution of AI benefits. Here, we look at the linear effects of AI and the Paris Agreement (AI), as well as their potential interaction on carbon neutrality. We also investigate whether geopolitical risk (GPR) can hinder or enhance efforts to attain carbon neutrality through energy transition (ET). To measure carbon neutrality of G20 countries, we employed a robust parametric Malmquist index combined with the fixed-effect panel stochastic frontier model to account for heterogeneity. Results indicate that from 1990 to 2022, carbon neutrality has improved primarily due to technological advancements. Developed G20 countries led in technological progress, while developing countries showed modest gains in carbon efficiency. Using the Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error method, we found that AI has a positive but insignificant linear effect on carbon neutrality. However, the interaction between PA and AI was positive and statistically significant, suggesting that PA augments AI's potential in accelerating carbon neutrality. Energy transition accelerates carbon neutrality in both developed and developing G20 countries. However, the role of energy transition in achieving carbon neutrality becomes negative when the interaction term between energy transition and geopolitical risk (ET × GRP) is incorporated. Regarding control variables, green innovation positively impacts carbon neutrality, whereas financial development has an insignificant effect. Industrial structure and foreign direct investment both negatively affect carbon neutrality, thereby supporting the pollution haven hypothesis. It is recommended that strategies to bridge the "AI divide" and uphold geopolitical stability are crucial to achieve carbon neutrality.
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Inteligencia Artificial , Carbono , Paris , AgriculturaRESUMEN
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. Aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas. Since it will not be possible to optimise across the 17 SDGs while simultaneously transitioning to low-carbon societies, it will be necessary to implement policies to address the most critical aspects of the agendas and understand the implications for the other dimensions. Here, we rely on a modelling exercise to analyse the long-term implications of a variety of Paris-compliant mitigation strategies suggested in the recent scientific literature on multiple dimensions of the SDG Agenda. The strategies included rely on technological solutions such as renewable energy deployment or carbon capture and storage, nature-based solutions such as afforestation and behavioural changes in the demand side. Results for a selection of energy-environment SDGs suggest that some mitigation pathways could have negative implications on food and water prices, forest cover and increase pressure on water resources depending on the strategy followed, while renewable energy shares, household energy costs, ambient air pollution and yield impacts could be improved simultaneously while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, results indicate that promoting changes in the demand side could be beneficial to limit potential trade-offs.
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Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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Digital transformation has become an inevitable trend in industrial development, but research on its environmental benefits has not been conducted in-depth. This paper focuses on the impact and mechanisms of the digital transformation of the transportation industry on its carbon intensity. Empirical tests are conducted based on the panel data of 43 economies from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the digital transformation of the transportation industry reduces its carbon intensity, but only the digital transformation that relies on domestic digital sources is significant. Second, technological progress, upgrading the industry's internal structure and improving energy consumption are the main channels through which the digital transformation of the transportation industry reduces its carbon intensity. Third, in terms of subdividing industries, the digital transformation of basic transportation has a more significant effect on reducing carbon intensity. For segmentation digitization, the carbon intensity reduction from digital infrastructure is more significant. This paper serves as a reference for countries to formulate development policies for the transportation industry and implement the Paris Agreement.
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Carbono , Industrias , Paris , Tecnología , Transportes , China , Desarrollo Económico , Dióxido de CarbonoRESUMEN
Converging corporate carbon performance (CCP) to a higher level is necessary to achieve the global goal of controlling temperature rise. However, it remains uncertain whether all international firms endeavour to improve CCP. Using a panel of 19,913 public companies from 76 countries during the 2010-2019 period and two visual tools of the distribution dynamics approach, we conduct a nascent analysis of transitional dynamics and the long-run evolution of CCP. We find that regardless of investigated period (before and after Paris Agreement) and regional location, most firms converge towards the highest CCP of 10, thereby improving carbon performance over time. After Paris Agreement, the convergence to the top CCP is more significant, whereas more companies cluster around the mediocre CCP (a value of 6.7), thus evidencing an increased heterogeneity in convergence paths. Firms from East Asia & Pacific and the North American regions drive such heightened heterogeneity. Specifically, enterprises from East Asia & Pacific show the least convergence towards the highest CCP, probably because more manufacturing firms in the region primarily rely on fossil fuels and face loose environmental regulations. Therefore, further improving CCP may require substantial investments in equipment upgrades and would result in significantly higher costs. For North America, the results can be associated with Donald Trump's policy towards climate change and bid to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, reflecting firms taking a Republican stand, most likely diverging to mediocre CCP and experiencing a decline in future carbon management. The observed convergence towards the highest CCP is nearly twice as significant among firms from OECD than non-OECD countries, which aligns with global enterprises outsourcing emissions to developing countries. The study reveals the pattern of strong convergence to the highest CCP in the global firms as evidence of collective efforts in the transition to net zero. However, divergence and increased heterogeneity may occur in some regions due to politics, industrial structure and regulations.
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Comercio , Combustibles Fósiles , Industrias , Organizaciones , Cambio Climático , CarbonoRESUMEN
Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation.
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The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment. We also find that 26 cm (12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the 1991-2030 (2016-2030) period. Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise.
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Climate change is one of the primary environmental problems broadly discussed in the Paris Agreement. In the literature, authors mainly focused on the changes in climate change concern. However, it is more important to answer whether the changes in concerns and responsibilities affect climate-friendly behaviour. Therefore, this study's objective was to analyse the changes in climate change concern, personal responsibility, and climate-friendly behaviour in EU-28 from 2015 (the launch of the Paris Agreement) to 2019 and evaluate how these changes contributed to separate actions. The changes in climate change concern and personal responsibility were statistically significant (F value). During the analysed period, the purchase of energy-efficient appliances increased the most. Meanwhile, the usage of environmentally friendly transport alternatives decreased. The determinants of changes in climate-friendly behaviour were identified using the multiple linear regression model. Results showed that changes in climate change concern significantly and positively affected waste management and choice of energy supplier which offers a greater share of energy from renewable sources and purchased of low-energy homes. Meanwhile, personal responsibility significantly and positively influenced switching energy suppliers but had a negative effect on home insulation. Furthermore, residents who performed high-cost behaviours (purchase of low-energy homes) also switched energy suppliers and insulated their homes. Therefore, the results indicated that the benefit and cost of behaviour (time, money) are very important aspects to promote climate-friendly behaviour. This study suggested that policymakers should raise public awareness about climate change and take all efforts to reduce the cost of high-cost behaviours and enable the possibilities to perform climate-friendly behaviour.
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Cambio ClimáticoRESUMEN
The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Glasgow a year later than scheduled, with expected outcomes achieved under a post-pandemic background. Based on the Issue-Actor-Mechanism Framework, this paper systematically evaluates the outcomes achieved at COP26 and analyzes the tendency of post-COP26 climate negotiations. Overall, with the concerted efforts of all parties, COP26 has achieved a balanced and inclusive package of outcomes and concluded six years of negotiations on the Paris Rulebook. It is fair to say that COP26 is another milestone in climate governance following the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the Glasgow Climate Pact has cemented the consensus on a global commitment to accelerating climate action over the next decade and reached a breakthrough consensus on reducing coal, controlling methane, and halting deforestation. In the post-COP26 era, we still need to take concrete actions to implement the outcomes of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, innovate ways to speed up CO2 emissions reduction, and continue to strive for breakthroughs in important issues such as finance, technology, adaptation, and collaboration. In addition to avoiding the escalation of international conflicts, we need to collectively and properly handle the relationship between energy security, carbon reduction, and development and facilitate the efforts of countries to achieve their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate-related goals. China will continue to maintain the existing multilateral mechanisms and processes for climate governance, unremittingly take concrete actions to address climate change, promote a domestic comprehensive green transition and global cooperation on carbon neutrality, and contribute constructively to global climate governance.
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Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10018-5.
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By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO2eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7.
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Fossil fuel subsidies are a market distortion commonly identified as an obstacle to decarbonization. Yet due to trenchant political economic risks, reform attempts can be fraught for governments. Despite these concerns, an institutionally and economically diverse group of states included references to fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under the Paris Agreement. What conditions might explain why some states reference politically risky reforms within treaty commitments, while most others would not? We argue that the Article 4 process under the Paris Agreement creates a "credibility dilemma" for states-articulating ambitious emissions reduction targets while also defining national climate plans engenders a need to seek out appropriate policy ideas that can justify overarching goals to international audiences. Insomuch as particular norms are institutionalized and made salient in international politics, a window of opportunity is opened: issue advocates can "activate" norms by demonstrating how related policies can make commitments credible. Using mixed methods, we find support for this argument. We identify contextual factors advancing FFSR in the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, including norm institutionalization in regimes and international organization programs as well as salience-boosting climate diplomacy. Further, we find correspondences between countries targeted by transnational policy advocates and FFSR references in INDCs, building on the momentum in international politics more generally. Though drafting INDCs and NDCs is a government-owned process, the results suggest that understanding their content requires examining international norms alongside domestic circumstances.
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We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.
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Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Animales , Océano Atlántico , Humanos , Paris , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
Agriculture is the largest single source of global anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions, with ruminants the dominant contributor. Livestock CH4 emissions are projected to grow another 30% by 2050 under current policies, yet few countries have set targets or are implementing policies to reduce emissions in absolute terms. The reason for this limited ambition may be linked not only to the underpinning role of livestock for nutrition and livelihoods in many countries but also diverging perspectives on the importance of mitigating these emissions, given the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. Here, we show that in mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C, which include cost-effective reductions from all emission sources, the contribution of future livestock CH4 emissions to global warming in 2050 is about one-third of that from future net carbon dioxide emissions. Future livestock CH4 emissions, therefore, significantly constrain the remaining carbon budget and the ability to meet stringent temperature limits. We review options to address livestock CH4 emissions through more efficient production, technological advances and demand-side changes, and their interactions with land-based carbon sequestration. We conclude that bringing livestock into mainstream mitigation policies, while recognizing their unique social, cultural and economic roles, would make an important contribution towards reaching the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is vital for a limit of 1.5°C. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.
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We examine the explanatory and forecasting power of economic growth, financial development, trade openness and FDI for CO2 emissions in major developed economies within the context of the debate on curbing CO2 emissions Post-Paris Agreement (COP21). Using data from G-6 countries from 1978 to 2014 and employing a set of empirical approaches, we find weak evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, while economic growth, capital market expansion, and trade openness are found to be major drivers of carbon emissions. Carbon emissions are also weakly and negatively affected by stock market capitalization and FDI. Moreover, the forecasting performance is quite good, particularly by augmenting the model with energy consumption and oil prices. With respect to climate commitments, our empirical findings reveal important policy implications.