Environmental heterogeneity modifies the link between personality and survival in fluctuating small mammal populations.

Despite numerous studies examining the fitness consequences of animal personalities, predictions concerning the relationship between personality and survival are not consistent with empirical observations. Theory predicts that individuals who are risky (i.e. bold, active and aggressive) should have higher rates of mortality; however, empirical evidence shows high levels of variation in behaviour-survival relationships in wild populations. We suggest that this mismatch between predictions under theory and empirical observations results from environmental contingencies that drive heterogeneity in selection. This uncertainty may constrain any universal directional relationships between personality traits and survival. Specifically, we hypothesize that spatiotemporal fluctuations in perceived risk that arise from variability in refuge abundance and competitor density alter the relationship between personality traits and survival. In a large-scale manipulative experiment, we trapped four small mammal species in five subsequent years across six forest stands treated with different management practices in Maine, United States. Stands all occur within the same experimental forest but contain varying amounts of refuge and small mammal densities fluctuate over time and space. We quantified the effects of habitat structure and competitor density on the relationship between personality traits and survival to assess whether directional relationships differed depending on environmental contingencies. In the two most abundant species, deer mice and southern red-backed voles, risky behaviours (i.e. higher aggression and boldness) predicted apparent monthly survival probability. Mice that were more aggressive (less docile) had higher survival. Voles that were bolder (less timid) had higher survival, but in the risky forest stands only. Additionally, traits associated with stress coping and de-arousal increased survival probability in both species at high small mammal density but decreased survival at low density. In the two less abundant study species, there was no evidence for an effect of personality traits on survival. Our field experiment provides partial support for our hypothesis: that spatiotemporal fluctuations in refuge abundance and competitor density alter the relationship between personality traits and survival. Our findings also suggest that behaviours associated with stress coping and de-arousal may be subject to density-dependent selection and should be further assessed and incorporated into theory.

Path analysis reveals combined winter climate and pollution effects on the survival of a marine top predator.

Marine ecosystems are experiencing growing pressure from multiple threats caused by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for marine food webs. Determining the effects of multiple stressors is complex, in part, as they can affect different aspects of biological organisation (behaviour, individual traits and demographic rates). Determining the combined effects of stressors, through different biological pathways, is key to predict the consequences for the viability of populations threatened by global change. Due to their position in the food chain, top predators such as seabirds are considered more sensitive to environmental changes. Climate change is affecting the prey resources available for seabirds, through bottom-up effects, while organic pollutants can bioaccumulate in food chains with the greatest impacts on top predators. However, knowledge of their combined effects on population dynamics is scarce. Using a path analysis, we quantify the effects of climate change and pollution on the survival of adult great black-backed gulls, both directly and through effects of individuals' body mass. Warmer ocean temperatures in gulls' winter foraging areas in the North Sea were correlated with higher survival, potentially explained by shifts in prey availability associated with global climate change. We also found support for indirect negative effects of organochlorines, highly toxic pollutants to seabirds, on survival, which acted, in part, through a negative effect on body mass. The results from this path analysis highlight how, even for such long-lived species where variance in survival tends to be limited, two stressors still have had a marked influence on adult survival and illustrate the potential of path models to improve predictions of population variability under multiple stressors.

Early-life variation in migration is subject to strong fluctuating survival selection in a partially migratory bird.

Population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change fundamentally depend on combinations of within- and among-cohort variation in the phenotypic expression of key life-history traits, and on corresponding variation in selection on those traits. Specifically, in partially migratory populations, spatio-seasonal dynamics depend on the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of seasonal migration versus residence, where more individuals migrate when selection favours migration. Opportunity for adaptive (or, conversely, maladaptive) expression could be particularly substantial in early life, through the initial development of migration versus residence. However, within- and among-cohort dynamics of early-life migration, and of associated survival selection, have not been quantified in any system, preventing any inference on adaptive early-life expression. Such analyses have been precluded because data on seasonal movements and survival of sufficient young individuals, across multiple cohorts, have not been collected. We undertook extensive year-round field resightings of 9359 colour-ringed juvenile European shags Gulosus aristotelis from 11 successive cohorts in a partially migratory population. We fitted Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to quantify early-life variation in migration versus residence and associated survival across short temporal occasions through each cohort's first year from fledging, thereby quantifying the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of migration within and across years. All cohorts were substantially partially migratory, but the degree and timing of migration varied considerably within and among cohorts. Episodes of strong survival selection on migration versus residence occurred both on short timeframes within years, and cumulatively across entire first years, generating instances of instantaneous and cumulative net selection that would be obscured at coarser temporal resolutions. Further, the magnitude and direction of selection varied among years, generating strong fluctuating survival selection on early-life migration across cohorts, as rarely evidenced in nature. Yet, the degree of migration did not strongly covary with the direction of selection, indicating limited early-life adaptive phenotypic expression. These results reveal how dynamic early-life expression of and selection on a key life-history trait, seasonal migration, can emerge across seasonal, annual, and multi-year timeframes, yet be substantially decoupled. This restricts the potential for adaptive phenotypic, microevolutionary, and population dynamic responses to changing seasonal environments.

Estimating multiple years, tributary-specific, and overall Atlantic salmon smolt abundance in a large Canadian catchment using capture-mark-recapture experiments.

Population monitoring of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) abundance is an essential element to understand annual stock variability and inform fisheries management processes. Smolts are the life stage marking the transition from the freshwater to the marine phase of anadromous Atlantic salmon. Estimating smolt abundance allows for subsequent inferences on freshwater and marine survival rates. Annual abundances of out-migrating Atlantic salmon smolts were estimated using Bayesian models and an 18-year capture-mark-recapture time series from two to five trapping locations within the Restigouche River (Canada) catchment. Some of the trapping locations were at the outlet of large upstream tributaries, and these sampled a portion of the total out-migrating population of smolts for the watershed, whereas others were located just above the head of tide of the Restigouche River and sampled the entire run of salmon smolts. Due to logistic and environmental conditions, not all trapping locations were operational each year. Additionally, recapture rates were relatively low (<5%), and the absolute number of recaptures was relatively few (most often a few dozen), leading to incoherent and highly uncertain estimates of tributary-specific and whole catchment abundance estimates when the data were modeled independently among trapping locations and years. Several models of increasing complexity were tested using simulated data, and the best-performing model in terms of bias and precision incorporated a hierarchical structure among years on the catchability parameters and included an explicit spatial structure to account for the annual variations in the number of sampled locations within the watershed. When the best model was applied to the Restigouche River catchment dataset, the annual smolt abundance estimates varied from 250,000 to 1 million smolts, and the subbasin estimates of abundance were consistent with the spatial structure of the monitoring programme. Ultimately, increasing the probabilities of capture and the absolute number of recaptures at the different traps will be required to improve the precision and reduce the bias of the estimates of smolt abundance for the entire basin and within subbasins of the watershed. The model and approach provide a significant improvement in the models used to date based on independent estimates of abundance by trapping location and year. Total abundance and relative production in discrete spawning, nesting, or rearing areas provide critical information to appropriately understand and manage the threats to species that can occur at subpopulation spatial scales.

Does coat colour influence survival? A test in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares.

Some mammal species inhabiting high-latitude biomes have evolved a seasonal moulting pattern that improves camouflage via white coats in winter and brown coats in summer. In many high-latitude and high-altitude areas, the duration and depth of snow cover has been substantially reduced in the last five decades. This reduction in depth and duration of snow cover may create a mismatch between coat colour and colour of the background environment, and potentially reduce the survival rate of species that depend on crypsis. We used long-term (1977-2020) field data and capture-mark-recapture models to test the hypothesis that whiteness of the coat influences winter apparent survival in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) at Kluane, Yukon, Canada. Whiteness of the snowshoe hare coat in autumn declined during this study, and snowshoe hares with a greater proportion of whiteness in their coats in autumn survived better during winter. However, whiteness of the coat in spring did not affect subsequent summer survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of coat colour change in autumn can reduce overwinter survival. Because declines in cyclic snowshoe hare populations are strongly affected by low winter survival, the timing of coat colour change may adversely affect snowshoe hare population dynamics as climate change continues.

Raising offspring increases ageing: Differences in senescence among three populations of a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin.

Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population-level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories. We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties. We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990-2020) of parallel capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively. In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3-5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ = -0.009) than on the two other colonies. Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large-scale comparative studies.

Population structure of Phanaeus vindex (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in SE Michigan.

Until now, little is known about the population structure and mobility of temperate dung beetles including the rainbow scarab, Phanaeus vindex (MacLeay 1819), although this knowledge is essential for their conservation as pastures become increasingly rare and the landscape fragmented by monocultures and urbanization. Here, we estimated population size, longevity, and dispersal within and between pastures. For 3 yr, we life-trapped beetles every week on 2 adjacent farms in SE Michigan, determined their sex, male morph, and size, and marked their elytra with individual tattoo patterns before releasing them. We marked a total of 470 rainbow scarabs of which 14 were recaptured once and 2 were recaptured twice. The sex ratio was not significantly sex-biased but fluctuated between months with no apparent uniformity between years. While the minor to major male ratios were unbiased in 2019 and 2020, they were marginally minor-biased in 2021. The gross population estimates for the 2 farms were 458-491 and 217 rainbow scarabs, respectively. Beetles traveled distances of up to 178 m within farms. No beetles dispersed between farms. One large female was recaptured after 338 days documenting the first cold hardiness and long lifespan of a cold-temperate dung beetle species in the wild. The low population estimates on both farms indicate 2 vulnerable populations with no or extremely limited connectivity. Supplementary funding for the land stewardship of small-scale cattle farmers could stabilize populations of native dung beetles and maintain their ecosystem services.

Reproductive benefits associated with dispersal in headwater populations of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata).

Theory suggests that the evolution of dispersal is balanced by its fitness costs and benefits, yet empirical evidence is sparse due to the difficulties of measuring dispersal and fitness in natural populations. Here, we use spatially explicit data from a multi-generational capture-mark-recapture study of two populations of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) along with pedigrees to test whether there are fitness benefits correlated with dispersal. Combining these ecological and molecular data sets allows us to directly measure the relationship between movement and reproduction. Individual dispersal was measured as the total distance moved by a fish during its lifetime. We analysed the effects of dispersal propensity and distance on a variety of reproductive metrics. We found that number of mates and number of offspring were positively correlated to dispersal, especially for males. Our results also reveal individual and environmental variation in dispersal, with sex, size, season, and stream acting as determining factors.

Causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in a sex-skewed population of a long-lived monogamous seabird.

Many animals form long-term monogamous pair bonds, and the disruption of a pair bond (through either divorce or widowhood) can have significant consequences for individual vital rates (survival, breeding, and breeding success probabilities) and life-history outcomes (lifetime reproductive success [LRS], life expectancy). Here, we investigated the causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). State-of-the-art statistical and mathematical approaches were developed to estimate divorce and widowhood rates and their impacts on vital rates and life-history outcomes. In this population, females incur a higher mortality rate due to incidental fishery bycatch, so the population is male-skewed. Therefore, we first posited that males would show higher widowhood rates negatively correlated with fishing effort and females would have higher divorce rates because they have more mating opportunities. Furthermore, we expected that divorce could be an adaptive strategy, whereby individuals improved breeding success by breeding with a new partner of better quality. Finally, we posited that pair-bond disruptions could reduce survival and breeding probabilities owing to the cost of remating processes, with important consequences for life-history outcomes. As expected, we showed that males had higher widowhood rates than females and females had higher divorce rates in this male-skewed population. However, no correlation was found between fishing effort and male widowhood. Secondly, contrary to our expectation, we found that divorce was likely nonadaptive in this population. We propose that divorce in this population is caused by an intruder who outcompetes the original partner in line with the so-called forced divorce hypothesis. Furthermore, we found a 16.7% and 18.0% reduction in LRS only for divorced and widowed males, respectively, owing to missing breeding seasons after a pair-bond disruption. Finally, we found that divorced individuals were more likely to divorce again, but whether this is related to specific individual characteristics remains an important area of investigation.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore.

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Increasing numbers of killer whale individuals use fisheries as feeding opportunities within subantarctic populations.

Fisheries can generate feeding opportunities for large marine predators in the form of discards or accessible catch. How the use of this anthropogenic food may spread as a new behaviour, across individuals within populations over time, is poorly understood. This study used a 16-year (2003-2018) monitoring of two killer whale Orcinus orca subantarctic populations (regular and Type-D at Crozet), and Bayesian multistate capture-mark-recapture models, to assess temporal changes in the number of individuals feeding on fish caught on hooks ('depredation' behaviour) of a fishery started in 1996. For both populations, the number of depredating individuals increased during the study period (34 to 94 for regular; 17 to 43 for Type-D). Increasing abundance is unlikely to account for this and, rather, the results suggest depredation was acquired by increasing numbers of existing individuals. For regular killer whales, a plateau reached from 2014 suggests that it took 18 years for the behaviour to spread across the whole population. A more recent plateau was apparent for Type-Ds but additional years are needed to confirm this. These findings show how changes in prey availability caused by human activities lead to rapid, yet progressive, innovations in killer whales, likely altering the ecological role of this top-predator.

Effects of snake fungal disease on short-term survival, behavior, and movement in free-ranging snakes.

Pathogenic fungi are increasingly associated with epidemics in wildlife populations. Snake fungal disease (SFD, also referred to as Ophidiomycosis) is an emerging threat to snakes, taxa that are elusive and difficult to sample. Thus, assessments of the effects of SFD on populations have rarely occurred. We used a field technique to enhance detection, Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) telemetry, and a multi-state capture-mark-recapture model to assess SFD effects on short-term (within-season) survival, movement, and surface activity of two wild snake species, Regina septemvittata (Queensnake) and Nerodia sipedon (Common Watersnake). We were unable to detect an effect of disease state on short-term survival for either species. However, we estimated Bayesian posterior probabilities of >0.99 that R. septemvittata with SFD spent more time surface-active and were less likely to permanently emigrate from the study area. We also estimated probabilities of 0.98 and 0.87 that temporary immigration and temporary emigration rates, respectively, were lower in diseased R. septemvittata. We found evidence of elevated surface activity and lower temporary immigration rates in diseased N. sipedon, with estimated probabilities of 0.89, and found considerably less support for differences in permanent or temporary emigration rates. This study is the first to yield estimates for key demographic and behavioral parameters (survival, emigration, surface activity) of snakes in wild populations afflicted with SFD. Given the increase in surface activity of diseased snakes, future surveys of snake populations could benefit from exploring longer-term demographic consequences of SFD and recognize that disease prevalence in surface-active animals may exceed that of the population as a whole.

Partial and complete dependency among data sets has minimal consequence on estimates from integrated population models.

Integrated population models (IPMs) are widely used to combine disparate data sets in joint analysis to better understand population dynamics and provide guidance for conservation activities. An often-cited assumption of IPMs is independence among component data sets within the combined likelihood. Dependency among data sets should lead to underestimation of variance and bias because individuals contribute data to more than one data set. In practice, studied individuals often occur in multiple data sets in IPMs (i.e., overlap), which is one way for the independence assumption to be violated. Such cases have the potential to dissuade practitioners and limit application of IPMs to solve emerging ecological problems. We assessed precision and bias of demographic rates estimated from IPMs using a complete gradient (0-100%) of overlap among data sets, wide ranges in demographic rates (e.g., survival 0.1-0.8) and sample sizes (100-1,200 individuals) and variable data sources. We compared results from our simulations with those from IPMs constructed using empirical data on tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) where data sets either had complete overlap or included different individuals. Contrary to previous investigators, we found no substantive bias or uncertainty in any demographic rate from IPMs derived from data sets with complete overlap. While variability in demographic rates was greater at low sample sizes (i.e., low capture, recapture, and survey probabilities), there were negligible differences in the posterior mean or root mean square error of demographic rates among IPMs with strong dependence vs. complete independence among data sets. Our simulations suggest IPMs can be designed using only capture-recapture data or harvest and capture-recovery data where population estimates are obtained from the same data as survival and productivity data. While we encourage researchers to carefully consider the modeling approach best suited for their data sets, our results suggest that dependence among data sets does not generally compromise IPM estimates. Thus, violation of the independence assumption should not dissuade researchers from the application of IPMs in ecological research.

Fitness and fur colouration: Testing the camouflage and thermoregulation hypotheses in an Arctic mammal.

Selection for crypsis has been recognized as an important ecological driver of animal colouration, whereas the relative importance of thermoregulation is more contentious with mixed empirical support. A potential thermal advantage of darker individuals has been observed in a wide range of animal species. Arctic animals that exhibit colour polymorphisms and undergo seasonal colour moults are interesting study subjects for testing the two alternative hypotheses: demographic performance of different colour morphs might be differentially affected by snow cover with a cryptic advantage for lighter morphs, or conversely by winter temperature with a thermal advantage for darker morphs. In this study, we explored whether camouflage and thermoregulation might explain differences in reproduction and survival between the white and blue colour morphs of the Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus under natural conditions. Juvenile and adult survival, breeding propensity and litter size were measured for 798 captive-bred and released or wild-born Arctic foxes monitored during an 11-year period (2007-2017) in two subpopulations in south-central Norway. We investigated the proportion of the two colour morphs and compared their demographic performance in relation to spatial variation in duration of snow cover, onset of snow season and winter temperatures. After population re-establishment, a higher proportion of blue individuals was observed among wild-born Arctic foxes compared to the proportion of blue foxes released from the captive population. Our field study provides the first evidence for an effect of colour morph on the reproductive performance of Arctic foxes under natural conditions, with a higher breeding propensity of the blue morph compared to the white one. Performance of the two colour morphs was not differentially affected by the climatic variables, except for juvenile survival. Blue morph juveniles showed a tendency for higher survival under colder winter temperatures but lower survival under warmer temperatures compared to white morph juveniles. Overall, our findings do not consistently support predictions of the camouflage or the thermoregulation hypotheses. The higher success of blue foxes suggests an advantage of the dark morph not directly related to disruptive selection by crypsis or thermoregulation. Our results rather point to physiological adaptations and behavioural traits not necessarily connected to thermoregulation, such as stress response, immune function, sexual behaviour and aggressiveness. Our findings highlight the need to explore the potential role of genetic linkage or pleiotropy in influencing the fitness of white and blue Arctic foxes as well as other species with colour polymorphisms.

Sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in a long-lived seabird.

Costs of reproduction on survival have captured the attention of researchers since life history theory was formulated. Adults of long-lived species may increase survival by reducing their breeding effort or even skipping reproduction. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the costs of current reproduction on survival and whether skipping reproduction increases adult survival in a long-lived seabird. We used capture-mark-recapture data (1450 encounters) from two populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii), breeding in the Azores and Canary Islands, North Atlantic Ocean. Using a multi-event model with two different breeding statuses (breeders versus non-breeders), we calculated probabilities of survival and of transitions between breeding statuses, evaluating potential differences between sexes. Females had lower survival probabilities than males, independent of their breeding status. When considering breeding status, breeding females had lower survival probabilities than non-breeding females, suggesting costs of reproduction on survival. Breeding males had higher survival probabilities than non-breeding males, suggesting that males do not incur costs of reproduction on survival and that only the highest quality males have access to breeding. The highest and the lowest probabilities of skipping reproduction were found in breeding males from the Azores and in breeding males from the Canary Islands, respectively. Intermediate values were observed in the females from both populations. This result is probably due to differences in the external factors affecting both populations, essentially predation pressure and competition. The existence of sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in several populations of this long-lived species may have important implications for species population dynamics.

The effects of personality on survival and trappability in a wild mouse during a population cycle.

The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) theory provides an evolutionary explanation for the existence of consistent among-individual variation in behaviour, or animal personality. Herein, individuals with a fast lifestyle are considered to be bolder and should take more risks resulting in a lower life expectancy compared to shyer individuals with a slower lifestyle. However, this assumption depends on the levels of intra-specific competition that the individuals experience which has rarely been tested in species that experience large changes in competition on a very short time scale. We used the multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) as a model system to study the POLS assumption by investigating the effects of two personality traits (exploration and stress-sensitivity) on survival, maturation (a proxy for reproductive investment) and recapture probability during one population cycle (Nindividuals = 201). Such a cycle consists of two phases in which the levels of intra-specific competition vary drastically. We found that only one personality trait, namely stress-sensitivity, had a negative effect on both survival and recapture probability but none of them affected maturation. This suggests that less stress-sensitive individuals take more risks in the wild and have a higher survival probability compared to high stress-sensitive individuals. However, the effect of personality on survival was only present during the population decrease phase, when the levels of intra-specific competition are high due to a scarcity of food. This suggests that seasonal changes in competition might be important in the evolution and maintenance of animal personalities in species whose population dynamics have a clear seasonal component.

On the relationship between baseline corticosterone levels and annual survival of the thorn-tailed rayadito.

Baseline concentrations of glucocorticoids (i.e., cortisol and/or corticosterone) can moderately increase with the degree of energy demands that an individual faces. This could be a mechanism based on which glucocorticods (GCs) can mediate life history trade-offs, and therefore fitness. The 'cort-fitness hypothesis' predicts a negative relationship between GCs and fitness, meanwhile the 'cort-adaptation hypothesis' predicts the opposite pattern. Field studies on the relation between baseline GCs and survival rate have shown mixed results, supporting both positive and negative effect. These ambiguous results could be partially consequence of the short time frame in that most of the studies are carried on. In this study, we tested the predictions of the 'cort-fitness hypothesis' and 'cort-adaptation hypothesis' by using long-term data (eight-year of capture-mark-recapture) of Thorn-tailed Rayadito (Aphrastura spinicauda) in two populations at different latitudes. We assessed whether survival varied as a function of Cort levels and whether it varied in a linear (positive: 'cort-adaptation hypothesis' or negative: 'cort-fitness hypothesis') or curvilinear way. The two populations in our study had different baseline Cort levels, then we evaluated whether the association between baseline Cort and survival probability varied between them. In the high latitude population (i.e., lower baseline Cort levels), we observed a marginally quadratic relationship that is consistent with the cort-fitness hypothesis. In contrast, in the low altitude population we did not find this relation. Our findings suggests that the association between baseline Cort and survival probability is context-dependent, and highlights the importance of comparing different populations and the use of long-term data.

Life history of the endangered Japanese striped loach, Cobitis kaibarai (Cypriniformes: Cobitidae), with special reference to its reproductive ecology and the influence of creek reshapings on its population density.

In recent years, the biodiversity of freshwater fishes has been markedly decreasing worldwide because of anthropogenic activities. The Japanese striped loach, Cobitis kaibarai (Cypriniformes: Cobitidae), is a primary freshwater fish endemic to northern Kyushu, Japan. This species is designated as endangered IB class in the Red List by the Japan Ministry of the Environment. Its population is decreasing, possibly because of habitat loss and degradation. To conserve C. kaibarai populations, information on its basic ecology is necessary; nonetheless, its detailed life history and reproductive ecology have yet to be clarified. In this study, the authors conducted monthly capture-mark-recapture surveys and periodical observations to investigate the life history, spawning sites and season of C. kaibarai. They also evaluated the influence of creek reshaping (concrete revetment) on the C. kaibarai population in Saga Plain, northern Kyushu. Between 2015 and 2018, more individuals were captured during winter than summer. The average body width of females peaked in early June and small immatures were confirmed from July. Some individuals were captured across 15 or more months after their initial marking. In the survey of reproductive sites, eggs and larvae of C. kaibarai were found in shallow areas in mid-June; these were temporarily submerged following the increase in water level from early June. Therefore, C. kaibarai spawns in shallow areas during this season. Based on the capture-mark-recapture surveys, the estimated population density of C. kaibarai significantly decreased in a census site that had undergone creek reshaping, which contrasted with the results in a control site, where no significant difference was detected. The standard length of C. kaibarai increased following creek reshaping, suggesting that the proportion of C. kaibarai postponing spawning had increased, possibly because of degradation of spawning environments. The results of this study provide important ecological knowledge for the conservation of C. kaibarai and emphasize the importance of shallow waters for floodplain spawners.

Life-History Modeling Reveals the Ecological and Evolutionary Significance of Autotomy.

AbstractAutotomy, the self-amputation of body parts, serves as an antipredator defense in many taxonomic groups of animals. However, its adaptive value has seldom been quantified. Here, we propose a novel modeling approach for measuring the fitness advantage conferred by the capability for autotomy in the wild. Using a predator-prey system where a land snail autotomizes and regenerates its foot specifically in response to snake bites, we conducted a laboratory behavioral experiment and a 3-year multievent capture-mark-recapture study. Combining these empirical data, we developed a hierarchical model and estimated the basic life-history parameters of the snail. Using samples from the posterior distribution, we constructed the snail's life table as well as that of a snail variant incapable of foot autotomy. As a result of our analyses, we estimated the monthly encounter rate with snake predators at 3.3% (95% credible interval: 1.6%-4.9%), the contribution of snake predation to total mortality until maturity at 43.3% (15.0%-95.3%), and the fitness advantage conferred by foot autotomy at 6.5% (2.7%-11.5%). This study demonstrated the utility of the multimethod hierarchical-modeling approach for the quantitative understanding of the ecological and evolutionary processes of antipredator defenses in the wild.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in seasonal migration covaries with subsequent reproductive success in a partially migratory bird.

Within-individual and among-individual variation in expression of key environmentally sensitive traits, and associated variation in fitness components occurring within and between years, determine the extents of phenotypic plasticity and selection and shape population responses to changing environments. Reversible seasonal migration is one key trait that directly mediates spatial escape from seasonally deteriorating environments, causing spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Yet, within-individual and among-individual variation in seasonal migration versus residence, and dynamic associations with subsequent reproductive success, have not been fully quantified. We used novel capture-mark-recapture mixture models to assign individual European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to 'resident', 'early migrant', or 'late migrant' strategies in two consecutive years, using year-round local resightings. We demonstrate substantial among-individual variation in strategy within years, and directional within-individual change between years. Furthermore, subsequent reproductive success varied substantially among strategies, and relationships differed between years; residents and late migrants had highest success in the 2 years, respectively, matching the years in which these strategies were most frequently expressed. These results imply that migratory strategies can experience fluctuating reproductive selection, and that flexible expression of migration can be partially aligned with reproductive outcomes. Plastic seasonal migration could then potentially contribute to adaptive population responses to currently changing forms of environmental seasonality.