Association between delays to patient admission from the emergency department and all-cause 30-day mortality.

BACKGROUND: Delays to timely admission from emergency departments (EDs) are known to harm patients. OBJECTIVE: To assess and quantify the increased risk of death resulting from delays to inpatient admission from EDs, using Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data in England. METHODS: A cross-sectional, retrospective observational study was carried out of patients admitted from every type 1 (major) ED in England between April 2016 and March 2018. The primary outcome was death from all causes within 30 days of admission. Observed mortality was compared with expected mortality, as calculated using a logistic regression model to adjust for sex, age, deprivation, comorbidities, hour of day, month, previous ED attendances/emergency admissions and crowding in the department at the time of the attendance. RESULTS: Between April 2016 and March 2018, 26 738 514 people attended an ED, with 7 472 480 patients admitted relating to 5 249 891 individual patients, who constituted the study's dataset. A total of 433 962 deaths occurred within 30 days. The overall crude 30-day mortality rate was 8.71% (95% CI 8.69% to 8.74%). A statistically significant linear increase in mortality was found from 5 hours after time of arrival at the ED up to 12 hours (when accurate data collection ceased) (p<0.001). The greatest change in the 30-day standardised mortality ratio was an 8% increase, occurring in the patient cohort that waited in the ED for more than 6 to 8 hours from the time of arrival. CONCLUSIONS: Delays to hospital inpatient admission for patients in excess of 5 hours from time of arrival at the ED are associated with an increase in all-cause 30-day mortality. Between 5 and 12 hours, delays cause a predictable dose-response effect. For every 82 admitted patients whose time to inpatient bed transfer is delayed beyond 6 to 8 hours from time of arrival at the ED, there is one extra death.

Comparison of qSOFA and Hospital Early Warning Scores for prognosis in suspected sepsis in emergency department patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and many tools exist to facilitate early recognition. This review compares two tools: the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Early Warning Scores (National/Modified Early Warning Scores (NEWS/MEWS)) for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality when applied in the emergency department. METHODS: A literature search was conducted using Medline, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane Library, handsearching of references and a grey literature search with no language or date restrictions. Two authors selected studies and quality assessment completed using QUADAS-2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities and specificities were compared. RESULTS: 13 studies were included, totalling 403 865 patients. All reported mortality and six reported ICU admission.The ranges for AUROC estimates varied from little better than chance to good prediction of mortality (NEWS: 0.59-0.88; qSOFA: 0.57-0.79; MEWS 0.56-0.75), however, individual papers generally reported higher AUROC values for NEWS than qSOFA. NEWS values demonstrated a tendency towards better sensitivity for ICU admission (NEWS ≥5, 46%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 12%-53%) and mortality (NEWS ≥5, 51%-97%; qSOFA ≥2, 14%-71%) but lower specificity (ICU: NEWS ≥5, 25%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 67%-99%; mortality: NEWS ≥5, 22%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 58%-99%). CONCLUSION: The wide range of AUROC estimates and high heterogeneity limit our conclusions. Allowing for this, the NEWS AUROC was consistently higher than qSOFA within individual papers. Both scores allow threshold setting, determined by the preferred compromise between sensitivity and specificity. At established thresholds NEWS tended to higher sensitivity while qSOFA tended to a higher specificity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019131414.

Higher clinical acuity and 7-day hospital mortality in non-COVID-19 acute medical admissions: prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the effect of COVID-19 lockdown measures on severity of illness and mortality in non-COVID-19 acute medical admissions. DESIGN: A prospective observational study. SETTING: 3 large acute medical receiving units in NHS Lothian, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Non-COVID-19 acute admissions (n=1682) were examined over the first 31 days after the implementation of the COVID-19 lockdown policy in the UK on 23 March 2019. Patients admitted over a matched interval in the previous 5 years were used as a comparator cohort (n=14 954). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient demography, biochemical markers of clinical acuity and 7-day hospital inpatient mortality. RESULTS: Non-COVID-19 acute medical admissions reduced by 44.9% across all three sites in comparison with the mean of the preceding 5 years (p<0.001). Patients arriving during this period were more likely to be male, of younger age and to arrive by emergency ambulance transport. Non-COVID-19 admissions during lockdown had a greater incidence of acute kidney injury, lactic acidaemia and an increased risk of hospital death within 7 days (4.2% vs 2.5%), which persisted after adjustment for confounders (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.43 to 2.41, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate a significant reduction in non-COVID-19 acute medical admissions during the early weeks of lockdown. Patients admitted during this period were of higher clinical acuity with a higher incidence of early inpatient mortality.

Oxygen therapy and inpatient mortality in COPD exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: In hospitalised patients with exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, European and British guidelines endorse oxygen target saturations of 88%-92%, with adjustment to 94%-98% if carbon dioxide levels are normal. We assessed the impact of admission oxygen saturation level and baseline carbon dioxide on inpatient mortality. METHODS: Patients were identified from the prospective Dyspnoea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidaemia and Atrial Fibrillation (DECAF) derivation study (December 2008-June 2010) and the mixed methods DECAF validation study (January 2012 to May 2014). In six UK hospitals, of 2645 patients with COPD exacerbation, 1027 patients were in receipt of supplemental oxygen at admission. All had a clinical history of COPD and obstructive spirometry. These patients were subdivided into the following groups: admission oxygen saturations of 87% or less, 88%-92%, 93%-96% or 97%-100%. Inpatient mortality was calculated for each group and expressed as ORs. The DECAF score and National Early Warning Score 2 (excluding oxygen saturation) were used in binary logistic regression to adjust for baseline risk. RESULTS: In patients with COPD receiving supplemental oxygen, oxygen saturations above 92% were associated with higher mortality and an adverse dose-response. Compared with the 88%-92% group, the adjusted risk of death (OR) in the 93%-96% and 97%-100% groups was 1.98 (95% CI 1.09 to 3.60, p=0.025) and 2.97 (95% CI 1.58 to 5.58, p=0.001). In the subgroup with normocapnia, the mortality signal remained significant in both the 93%-96% and 97%-100% groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient mortality was lowest in those with oxygen saturations of 88%-92%. Even modest elevations in oxygen saturations above this range (93%-96%) were associated with an increased risk of death. A similar mortality trend was seen in both patients with hypercapnia and normocapnia. This shows that the practice of setting different target saturations based on carbon dioxide levels is not justified. Treating all patients with COPD with target saturations of 88%-92% will simplify prescribing and should improve outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UKCRN ID 14214.

Hypochloraemia is associated with 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock: a retrospective analysis of a multicentre prospective registry.

OBJECTIVES: Hyperchloraemia is associated with poor clinical outcomes in sepsis patients; however, this association is not well studied for hypochloraemia. We investigated the prevalence of chloride imbalance and the association between hypochloraemia and 28-day mortality in ED patients with septic shock. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data from 11 multicentre EDs in the Republic of Korea prospectively collected from October 2015 to April 2018 was performed. Initial chloride levels were categorised as hypochloraemia, normochloraemia and hyperchloraemia, according to sodium chloride difference adjusted criteria. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. A multivariate logistic regression model adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, acid-base state, sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, lactate and albumin level was used to test the association between the three chloride categories and 28-day mortality. RESULTS: Among 2037 enrolled patients, 394 (19.3%), 1582 (77.7%) and 61 (3.0%) patients had hypochloraemia, normochloraemia and hyperchloraemia, respectively. The unadjusted 28-day mortality rate in patients with hypochloraemia was 27.4% (95% CI, 23.1% to 32.1%), which was higher than in patients with normochloraemia (19.7%; 95% CI, 17.8% to 21.8%). Hypochloraemia was associated with an increase in the risk of 28-day mortality (adjusted OR (aOR), 1.36, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.83) after adjusting for confounders. However, hyperchloraemia was not associated with 28-day mortality (aOR 1.35, 95% CI, 0.82 to 2.24). CONCLUSION: Hypochloraemia was more frequently observed than hyperchloraemia in ED patients with septic shock and it was associated with 28-day mortality.

Mortality benefit of crystalloids administered in 1-6 hours in septic adults in the ED: systematic review with narrative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Based on the 2018 update of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign, the Committee for Quality Improvement of the NHSs of England recommended the instigation of the elements of the 'Sepsis-6 bundle' within 1 hour to adult patients screened positive for sepsis. This bundle includes a bolus infusion of 30 mL/kg crystalloids in the ED. Besides the UK, both in the USA and Australia, compliance with similar 1-hour targets became an important quality indicator. However, the supporting evidence may neither be contemporaneous nor necessarily valid for emergency medicine settings. METHOD: A systematic review was designed and registered at PROSPERO to assess available emergency medicine/prehospital evidence published between 2012 and 2020, investigating the clinical benefits associated with a bolus infusion of a minimum 30 mL/kg crystalloids within 1 hour to adult patients screened positive for sepsis. Due to the small number of papers that addressed this volume of fluids in 1 hour, we expanded the search to include studies looking at 1-6 hours. RESULTS: Seven full-text articles were identified, which investigated various aspects of the fluid resuscitation in adult sepsis. However, none answered completely to the original research question aimed to determine either the effect of time-to-crystalloids or the optimal fluid volume of resuscitation. Our findings demonstrated that in the USA/UK/Australia/Canada, adult ED septic patients receive 23-43 mL/kg of crystalloids during the first 6 hours of resuscitation without significant differences either in mortality or in adverse effects. CONCLUSION: This systematic review did not find high-quality evidence supporting the administration of 30 mL/kg crystalloid bolus to adult septic patients within 1 hour of presentation in the ED. Future research must investigate both the benefits and the potential harms of the recommended intervention.

Association between anticoagulants and mortality and functional outcomes in older patients with major trauma.

BACKGROUND: The number of trauma patients taking anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents is increasing as society ages. However, there have been limited and inconsistent reports of the association between anticoagulants and mortality and functional outcomes. This study aimed to quantify the association between anticoagulant/antiplatelet medication at the time of injury and both short-term and longer-term outcomes in older major trauma patients. METHODS: This was a population-based registry study using data from the Victorian State Trauma Registry from July 2017 to June 2018. We included patients with major trauma aged 65 years and older. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, intensive care unit length of stay and the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) at 6 months after injury. We examined the association between the outcomes and anticoagulants/antiplatelet agents at the time of injury and used multivariable logistic regression models to account for known confounders. RESULTS: There were 1323 older adults eligible for inclusion in the study, of which 249 (18.8%) were taking anticoagulants (n=8 were taking both anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents), 380 (28.7%) were taking antiplatelet agents and 694 (52.5%) were not using either. Any anticoagulant use was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR (AOR), 2.38; 95% CI 1.58 to 3.59) compared with not using anticoagulants. No differences were observed in the GOS-E at 6 months after injury between any anticoagulants use, antiplatelet use and no anticoagulant use (anticoagulant AOR, 0.71; 95% CI 0.48 to 1.05, antiplatelet AOR, 1.02; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.42). CONCLUSION: Anticoagulant use at the time of injury was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality but did not adversely impact functional outcomes at 6 months after injury. These findings demonstrate the importance of seeking an accurate history of anticoagulant use and its indication, as well as the immediate initiation of reversal therapies.

qSOFA as a new community-acquired pneumonia severity score in the emergency setting.

BACKGROUND: Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score is a bedside prognostic tool for patients with suspected infection outside the intensive care unit (ICU), which is particularly useful when laboratory analyses are not readily available. However, its performance in potentially septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) needs to be examined further, especially in relation to early outcomes affecting acute management. OBJECTIVE: First, to compare the performance of qSOFA and CURB-65 in the prediction of mortality in the emergency department in patients presenting with CAP. Second, to study patients who required critical care support (CCS) and ICU admission. METHODS: Between January and December 2017, a 1-year retrospective observational study was carried out of adult (≥18 years old) patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) of our hospital (Rome, Italy) with CAP. The accuracy of qSOFA, qSOFA-65 and CURB-65 was compared in predicting mortality in the ED, CCS requirement and ICU admission. The concordance among scores ≥2 was then assessed for 30-day estimated mortality prediction. RESULTS: 505 patients with CAP were enrolled. Median age was 71.0 years and mortality rate in the ED was 4.7%. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of qSOFA-65, CURB-65 and qSOFA in predicting mortality rate in the ED were 0.949 (95% CI 0.873 to 0.976), 0.923 (0.867 to 0.980) and 0.909 (0.847 to 0.971), respectively. The likelihood ratio of a patient having a qSOFA score ≥2 points was higher than for qSOFA-65 or CURB-65 (11 vs 7 vs 6.7). The AUCs of qSOFA, qSOFA-65 and CURB-65 in predicting CCS requirement were 0.862 (95% CI 0.802 to 0.923), 0.824 (0.758 to 0.890) and 0.821 (0.754 to 0.888), respectively. The AUCs of qSOFA-65, qSOFA and CURB-65 in predicting ICU admission were 0.593 (95% CI 0.511 to 0.676), 0.585 (0.503 to 0.667) and 0.570 (0.488 to 0.653), respectively. The concordance between qSOFA-65 and CURB-65 in 30-day estimated mortality prediction was 93%. CONCLUSION: qSOFA is a valuable score for predicting mortality in the ED and for the prompt identification of patients with CAP requiring CCS. qSOFA-65 may further improve the performance of this useful score, showing also good concordance with CURB-65 in 30-day estimated mortality prediction.

Moderate to severe hyperphosphataemia as an independent prognostic factor for 28-day mortality in adult patients with sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Ischaemic tissue injury caused by tissue hypoperfusion is one of the major consequences of sepsis. Phosphate concentrations are elevated in ischaemic tissue injury. This study was performed to investigate the association of phosphate concentrations with mortality in patients with sepsis. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with sepsis conducted at an urban, tertiary care emergency department (ED) in Korea. Patients with sepsis arriving between March 2010 and April 2017 were stratified into four groups according to the initial phosphate concentration at presentation to the ED: group I (hypophosphataemia, phosphate <2 mg/dL), group II (normophosphataemia, phosphate 2-4 mg/dL), group III (mild hyperphosphataemia, phosphate 4-6 mg/dL), group IV (moderate to severe hyperphosphataemia, phosphate ≥6 mg/dL). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent association of initial phosphate concentration with 28-day mortality. RESULTS: Of the 3034 participants in the study, the overall mortality rate was 21.9%. The 28-day mortality rates were group I (hypophosphataemia) 14.6%, group II 17.4% (normophosphataemia), group III (mild hyperphosphataemia) 29.2% and group IV (moderate to severe hyperphosphataemia) 51.4%, respectively (p<0.001). In the multivariable analyses, patients with severe hyperphosphataemia had a significantly higher risk of death than those with normal phosphate levels (HR 1.59; 95% CI 1.23 to 2.05). Mortality in the other groups was not significantly different from mortality in patients with normophosphataemia. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate to severe hyperphosphataemia was associated with 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. Phosphate level could be used as a prognostic indicator in sepsis.

Views and experiences of nurses in providing end-of-life care to patients in an ED context: a qualitative systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: With an increase in the population living with terminal illness, many patients are accessing EDs during the last days of their life. Yet EDs are often not well prepared to provide end-of-life (EOL) care. The aim of this review was to identify and synthesise studies that describe the views and experiences of emergency nurses in providing EOL care so as to understand the barriers and challenges that they face while caring for these patients and to identify factors that can support appropriate care delivery. METHOD: A qualitative meta-synthesis was undertaken using a thematic approach. Study quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument tool. Five databases were searched in June 2016. RESULTS: Eleven qualitative studies met the inclusion criteria and were assessed as having high quality. Sixty-nine findings were identified, combined into 11 descriptive themes and then synthesised into 3 analytical themes: (1) Incongruent ED environment and EOL care. (2) Lack of resources, systems and capacity. (3) EOL care as a rewarding act or an emotional burden. CONCLUSION: The review identified a need for: (1) Additional training for nurses. (2) The development of clear guidelines in the form of pathways and protocols. (3) Having a separate space for the dying. (4) Providing a supportive environment for staff dealing with high emotional burden and challenging workloads. In order to improve EOL care, organisations must work on the barriers that hinder care provision.

Perspectives of emergency department attendees on outcomes of resuscitation efforts: origins and impact on cardiopulmonary resuscitation preference.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that individuals overestimate the success of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) while underestimating its morbidity. Although perceptions of CPR success affect medical care in the emergency department (ED), no ED-based studies have been done. OBJECTIVE: To survey ED patients and their companions to assess their expectations, hypothesising that variation in information sources, prior exposure to CPR, and healthcare experience would influence predicted CPR success rates. METHODS: A survey was carried out of adults (age >18 years) in the ED waiting area of a tertiary care hospital between June and September 2016. An optimism scale was created to reflect expected likelihood of survival after CPR, or CPR success, under several sets of circumstances. Potential predictors of optimism for CPR outcome were examined using linear regression. Associations between optimism and CPR preference were evaluated using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. RESULTS: There were 500 respondents and 53% had performed or witnessed CPR, and/or participated in a CPR course (64%). Television was the main source of information about CPR for >95% of respondents. At least half (51-64%) of respondents estimated the success rate of CPR as over 75% in all situations. Estimated CPR success rates were unrelated to age, sex, race, spiritual beliefs or personal healthcare experience. More than 90% of respondents wanted to receive CPR. Less than one-third of respondents had discussed CPR with a medical provider, but most wished to do so. CONCLUSION: Consistent with prior studies, individuals overestimate the success rate of CPR. Healthcare experience does not appear to mitigate optimism about CPR, and individuals overwhelmingly want CPR for themselves. Though few had talked about CPR with a medical provider, most wanted to have informed decision-making conversations. Such discussions could help patients obtain a more realistic view of CPR outcomes.

Shock index as a predictor of hospital admission and inpatient mortality in a US national database of emergency departments.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The shock index (SI), defined as the ratio of the heart rate (HR) to the systolic blood pressure (BP), is used as a prognostic tool in trauma and in specific disease states. However, there is scarcity of data about the utility of the SI in the general emergency department (ED)population. Our goal was to use a large national database of EDs in the United States (US) to determine whether the likelihood of inpatient mortality and hospital admission was associated with initial SI at presentation. METHODS: Data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey were retrospectively reviewed to obtain a weighted sample of all US ED visits between 2005 and 2010. All adults >18 years old who survived the ED visit were included, regardless of their chief complaint. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated for a range of SI values, in order to determine SI thresholds most predictive of hospital admission and inpatient mortality. +LRs >5 were considered to be clinically significant. RESULTS: A total of 526 455 251 adult patient encounters were included in the analysis. 56.9% were women, 73.9% were white and 53.2% were between the ages of 18 and 44 years. 88 326 638 (15.7%) unique ED visits resulted in hospital admission and 1 927 235 (2.6%) visits resulted in inpatient mortality. SI>1.3 was associated with a clinically significant increase in both the likelihood of hospital admission (+LR=6.64) and inpatient mortality (+LR=5.67). SI>0.7 and >0.9, the traditional cited cut-offs, were only associated with marginal increases (+LR= 1.13; 1.54 for SI>0.7 and +LR=1.95; 2.59 for SI>0.9 for hospital admission and inpatient mortality, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest retrospective study to date on SI in the general ED population, we demonstrated that initial SI at presentation to the ED could potentially be useful in predicting the likelihood of hospital admission and inpatient mortality, which could help guide rapid and accurate acuity designation, resource allocation and disposition.

The impact of closing emergency departments on mortality in emergencies: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In England the demand for emergency care is increasing, while there is also a staffing shortage. This has implications for quality of care and patient safety. One solution may be to concentrate resources on fewer sites by closing or downgrading emergency departments (EDs). Our aim was to quantify the impact of such reorganisation on population mortality. METHODS: We undertook a controlled interrupted time series analysis to detect the impact of closing or downgrading five EDs, which occurred due to concerns regarding sustainability. We obtained mortality data from 2007 to 2014 using national databases. To establish ED resident catchment populations, estimated journey times by road were supplied by the Department for Transport. Other major changes in the emergency and urgent care system were determined by analysis of annual NHS Trust reports in each geographical area studied. Our main outcome measures were mortality and case fatality for a set of 16 serious emergency conditions. RESULTS: For residents in the areas affected by closure, journey time to the nearest ED increased (median change 9 min, range 0-25 min). We found no statistically reliable evidence of a change in overall mortality following reorganisation of ED care in any of the five areas or overall (+2.5% more deaths per month on average; 95% CI -5.2% to +10.2%; p=0.52). There was some evidence to suggest that, on average across the five areas, there was a small increase in case fatality, an indicator of the 'risk of death' (+2.3%, 95% CI +0.9% to+3.6%; p<0.001), but this may have arisen due to changes in hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that reorganisation of emergency care was associated with a change in population mortality in the five areas studied. Further research should establish the economic consequences and impact on patient experience and neighbouring hospitals.

Prognostic accuracy of qSOFA in predicting 28-day mortality among infected patients in an emergency department: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Few prospective studies have evaluated the quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) criteria in emergency department (ED)settings. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic accuracy of qSOFA compared with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in predicting the 28-day mortality of infected patients admitted to an ED. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study of all adult (≥18 years) infected patients admitted to the ED of Slagelse Hospital, Denmark, was conducted from 1 October 2017 to 31 March 2018. Patients were enrolled consecutively and data related to SIRS and qSOFA criteria were obtained from electronic triage record. Information regarding mortality was obtained from the Danish Civil Registration System. The original cut-off values of ≥2 was used to determine the prognostic accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA criteria for predicting 28-day mortality and was assessed by analyses of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratios and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: A total of 2112 patients were included in this study. A total of 175 (8.3%) patients met at least two qSOFA criteria, while 1012 (47.9%) met at least two SIRS criteria on admission. A qSOFA criteria of at least two for predicting 28-day mortality had a sensitivity of 19.5% (95% CI 13.6% to 26.5%) and a specificity of 92.6% (95% CI 91.4% to 93.7%). A SIRS criteria of at least two for predicting 28-day mortality had a sensitivity of 52.8% (95% CI 44.8% to 60.8%) and a specificity of 52.5% (95% CI 50.2% to 54.7%). The AUROC values for qSOFA and SIRS were 0.63 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.67) and 0.52 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.57), respectively. CONCLUSION: Both SIRS and qSOFA had poor sensitivity for 28-day mortality. qSOFA improved the specificity at the expense of the sensitivity resulting in slightly higher prognostic accuracy overall.

A simple clinical assessment is superior to systematic triage in prediction of mortality in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the Danish Emergency Process Triage (DEPT) with a quick clinical assessment (Eyeball triage) as predictors of short-term mortality in patients in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: The investigation was designed as a prospective cohort study conducted at North Zealand University Hospital. All patient visits to the ED from September 2013 to December 2013 except minor injuries were included. DEPT was performed by nurses. Eyeball triage was a quick non-systematic clinical assessment based on patient appearance performed by phlebotomists. Both triage methods categorised patients as green (not urgent), yellow, orange or red (most urgent). Primary analysis assessed the association between triage level and 30-day mortality for each triage method. Secondary analyses investigated the relation between triage level and 48-hour mortality as well as the agreement between DEPT and Eyeball triage. RESULTS: A total of 6383 patient visits were included. DEPT was performed for 6290 (98.5%) and Eyeball triage for 6382 (~100%) of the patient visits. Only patients with both triage assessments were included. The hazard ratio (HR) for 48-hour mortality for patients categorised as yellow was 0.9 (95% CI 0.4 to 1.9) for DEPT compared with 4.2 (95% CI 1.2 to 14.6) for Eyeball triage (green is reference). For orange the HR for DEPT was 2.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.4) and 17.1 (95% CI 5.1 to 57.1) for Eyeball triage. For red the HR was 30.9 (95% CI 12.3 to 77.4) for DEPT and 128.7 (95% CI 37.9 to 436.8) for Eyeball triage. For 30-day mortality the HR for patients categorised as yellow was 1.7 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.4) for DEPT and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.5) for Eyeball triage. For orange the HR was 2.6 (95% CI 1.8 to 3.6) for DEPT and 7.6 (95% CI 5.1 to 11.2) for Eyeball triage, and for red the HR was 19.1 (95% CI 10.4 to 35.2) for DEPT and 27.1 (95% CI 16.9 to 43.5) for Eyeball triage. Agreement between the two systems was poor (kappa 0.05). CONCLUSION: Agreement between formalised triage and clinical assessment is poor. A simple clinical assessment by phlebotomists is superior to a formalised triage system to predict short-term mortality in ED patients.

Disease progression after ablation for atrial flutter compared with atrial fibrillation: A nationwide cohort study.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to study the risk of death and development of arrhythmia and/or subsequently heart failure after an atrial flutter ablation procedure compared with an atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation procedure. METHODS: This observational study is based on data from Danish nationwide health databases. Patients with a first-time ablation procedure for either atrial flutter or AF in the period 2000-2016 were included. Rates of renewed arrhythmia, heart failure or death were compared and reported as adjusted hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 2,004 and 3,803 patients with an incident atrial flutter or AF ablation procedure, respectively. All-cause mortality among atrial flutter patients was significantly higher compared with the AF group (HR 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-2.35). The incidence of renewed arrhythmia without heart failure was lower in atrial flutter (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.69-0.84). Renewed atrial flutter ablation and pacemaker implantations were significantly more frequent (HR 2.42, 95% CI 2.02-2.91 and HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.13-1.79, respectively) in atrial flutter compared with AF. The risk of heart failure was higher for atrial flutter, both after the initial ablation (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.08-2.03), and after a further arrhythmia management event (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.33-2.94). CONCLUSION: There was a higher mortality risk after atrial flutter ablation procedures compared with patients undergoing AF ablation. Rates of heart failure and further renewed (non-AF) arrhythmia management were higher in atrial flutter.

Elevated mortality among weekend hospital admissions is not associated with adoption of seven day clinical standards.

INTRODUCTION: Patients admitted to hospital in an emergency at weekends have been found to experience higher mortality rates than those admitted during the week. The National Health Service (NHS) in England has introduced four priority clinical standards for emergency hospital care with the objective of reducing deaths associated with this 'weekend effect'. This study aimed to determine whether adoption of these clinical standards is associated with the extent to which weekend mortality is elevated. METHODS: We used publicly available data on performance against the four priority clinical standards in 2015 and estimates of Trusts' weekend effects between 2013/2014 and 2015/2016 for 123 NHS Trusts in England. We examined whether adoption of the priority clinical standards was associated with the extent to which weekend mortality was elevated, and changes over a 3 year period in the extent to which mortality was elevated. RESULTS: Levels of achievement of two of the four clinical standards (ongoing review and access to diagnostic services) had small positive associations with the magnitude of the weekend effect in 2015/2016. Levels of achievement of the remaining two standards (time to first consultant review and access to consultant directed interventions) had small negative associations with the magnitude of the weekend effect in 2015/2016. No association was statistically significant. The same pattern was observed in the associations between achievement of the standards and changes in the magnitudes of the weekend effect between 2013/2014 and 2015/2016. DISCUSSION: We found no association between Trusts' performance against any of the four standards and the current magnitude of their weekend effects, or the change in their weekend effects over the past 3 years. These findings cast doubt on whether adoption of seven day clinical standards in the delivery of emergency hospital services will be successful in reducing the weekend effect.

Profile and outcomes of critically ill children in a lower middle-income country.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical profile and outcome of critically ill children presenting to a paediatric ED in a lower middle-income country. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of children (<14 years) presenting to the ED of the National Institute of Child Health, Karachi, between January and December 2014 who were assigned to acuity 1 (requiring immediate life-saving interventions) according to the Emergency Severity Index. Data included demographic variables, presenting complaints, interventions and outcomes in the ED. RESULTS: There were 172 162 visits during the year. Of these, 13 551 (8%) were level 1. 64% of level 1 patients were transported to the ED without ambulance service. Neonates (0-28 days) constituted 48% of level 1 children; their most frequent presenting complaints were respiratory symptoms, followed by fever and reluctance to feed. Above the neonatal age group, the most common presenting complaints were gastrointestinal symptoms (with signs of hypoperfusion), followed by seizures, reluctance to feed and respiratory symptoms. 64% of children of >28 days presenting were malnourished. Interventions included cardiopulmonary resuscitation, application of bubble continuous positive airway pressure and endotracheal intubation. Overall mortality was 13%; 63% of all deaths were in the neonatal age group. CONCLUSION: Children with the highest triage acuity represent 8% of all visits to a paediatric ED. In this group, neonates account for nearly half of all the children, and more than half of all the deaths among critically ill children came in ED. A large proportion of high-acuity children are malnourished.

Gender and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a New Zealand registry study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationships between survival from all-cause out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and gender in New Zealand. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted using data compliant with the Utstein guidelines from the St John New Zealand OHCA Registry for adult patients who were treated for an OHCA between 1 October 2013 and 30 September 2015. Univariate logistic regression was used to investigate factors associated with return of spontaneous circulation sustained to handover at hospital and survival to 30 days. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate outcome differences in survival according to gender at 30 days postevent. RESULTS: Women survived to hospital handover in 29% of cases, which was not significantly different from men (31%). When adjusted for age, location, aetiology, initial rhythm and witnessed status, there was no significant difference in 30-day survival between men (16%) and women (13%) (adjusted OR 1.22, 95% CI (0.96 to 1.55), p=0.11). CONCLUSION: No statistical differences were found in 30-day survival between genders when adjustments for unfavourable Utstein variables were accounted for.

Lowering levels of bed occupancy is associated with decreased inhospital mortality and improved performance on the 4-hour target in a UK District General Hospital.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether there is an association between an intervention to reduce medical bed occupancy and performance on the 4-hour target and hospital mortality. METHODS: This before-and-after study was undertaken in a large UK District General Hospital over a 32 month period. A range of interventions were undertaken to reduce medical bed occupancy within the Trust. Performance on the 4-hour target and hospital mortality (hospital standardised mortality ratio (HSMR), summary hospital-level mortality indicator (SHMI) and crude mortality) were compared before, and after, intervention. Daily data on medical bed occupancy and percentage of patients meeting the 4-hour target was collected from hospital records. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time-series method was used to estimate the changes in levels and trends in average medical bed occupancy, monthly performance on the target and monthly mortality measures (HSMR, SHMI and crude mortality) that followed the intervention. RESULTS: Mean medical bed occupancy decreased significantly from 93.7% to 90.2% (p=0.02). The trend change in target performance, when comparing preintervention and postintervention, revealed a significant improvement (p=0.019). The intervention was associated with a mean reduction in all markers of mortality (range 4.5-4.8%). SHMI (p=0.02) and crude mortality (p=0.018) showed significant trend changes after intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Lowering medical bed occupancy is associated with reduced patient mortality and improved ability of the acute Trust to achieve the 95% 4-hour target. Whole system transformation is required to create lower average medical bed occupancy.