Clinical Features of the 60 Years and Older Patients Infected with 2019 Novel Coronavirus: Can We Predict Mortality Earlier?

INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has affected over 100 countries in a short while, progresses more mortally in elderly patients with comorbidities. In this study, we examined the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of the patients aged 60 and over who had been infected with COVID-19. METHODS: The data of the patients admitted to the hospital within 1 month from May 8, 2020 onwards and hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia were obtained from the hospital medical records, and the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory parameters of the patients during the admission to the emergency department were examined. Patients were divided into 2 groups regarding the criteria of having in-hospital mortality (mortality group) and being discharged with full recovery (survivor group). The factors, which could have an impact on the mortality, were investigated using a univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: This retrospective study included 113 patients aged 60 years and older, with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. The mean age of the patients was 70.7 ± 7.9, and 64.6% (n = 73) of them were male. The mortality rate was 19.4% (n = 22). Among the comorbid illnesses, only renal failure was significant in the mortality group (p = 0.04). A CURB-65score ≥3 or pneumonia severity index (PSI) class ≥4 manifested a remarkable discrimination ability to predict 30-day mortality (p < 0.001). When the laboratory parameters were considered, the value of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was significant in predicting mortality in univariate and multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.03-1.21; p = 0.006, and OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.11-2.39; p = 0.044, respectively). CONCLUSION: In our study, NLR was determined to be an independent marker to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19. PSI and CURB-65 revealed a considerably precise prognostic accuracy for the patients with COVID-19 in our study as well. Moreover, thanks to that NLR results in a very short time, it can enable the clinician to predict mortality before the scoring systems are calculated and hasten the management of the patients in the chaotic environment of the emergency room.

Comprehensive analysis of prognostic factors in hospitalized patients with pneumonia occurring outside hospital: Serum albumin is not less important than pneumonia severity assessment scale.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to elucidate factors related to 30-day mortality of pneumonia occurring outside hospital by comprehensively analyzing data considered relevant to prognosis. METHODS: Data considered relevant to prognosis were retrospectively examined from clinical charts and chest X-ray images of all patients with pneumonia occurring outside hospital admitted to our hospital from 2010 to 2016. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Data were collected from 534 patients (317 community-acquired pneumonia and 217 nursing- and healthcare associated pneumonia patients; 338 men (63.3%); mean age, 76.2 years-old). Eighty-three patients (9.9%) died from pneumonia within 30 days from the date of admission. The numbers of patients with pneumonia severity index (PSI) classes of I/II/III/IV/V and age, dehydration, respiratory failure, orientation disturbance, pressure (A-DROP) scores of 0/1/2/3/4/5 were 29/66/127/229/83, and 71/107/187/132/30/7, respectively. Mean (standard deviation) body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, blood procalcitonin, white blood cell and C-reactive protein were 20.00 (4.12) kg/m2, 3.16 (0.60) g/dL, 3.69 (13.15) ng/mL, 11559.4 (5656.9)/mm3, and 10.92 (8.75) mg/dL, respectively. Chest X-ray images from 152 patients exhibited a pneumonia shadow over a quarter of total lung field. Logistic regression analysis revealed that PSI class or A-DROP score, BMI, serum albumin, and extent of pneumonia shadow were related to 30-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis revealed that serum albumin was superior to PSI class or A-DROP score for predicting 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Serum albumin is not less important than PSI class or A-DROP score for predicting 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with pneumonia occurring outside hospital.

Risk stratification and prediction value of procalcitonin and clinical severity scores for community-acquired pneumonia in ED.

OBJECTIVE: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common presentation to the emergency department (ED) and has high mortality rates. The aim of our study is to investigate the risk stratification and prognostic prediction value of precalcitonin (PCT) and clinical severity scores on patients with CAP in ED. METHODS: 226 consecutive adult patients with CAP admitted in ED of a tertiary teaching hospital were enrolled. Demographic information and clinical parameters including PCT levels were analyzed. CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA scores were calculated and compared between the severe CAP (SCAP) and non-severe CAP (NSCAP) group or the death and survival group. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 28-day mortality were calculated for each predictor using cut-off values. Logistic regression models and area under the curve (AUC) analysis were performed to compare the performance of predictors. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients were classified as SCAP and forty-nine patients died within 28days. There was significant difference between either SCAP and NSCAP group or death and survival group in PCT level and CURB65, PSI, SOFA, qSOFA scores (p < 0.001). The AUCs of the PCT and CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA in predicting SCAP were 0.875, 0.805, 0.810, 0.852 and 0.724, respectively. PCT is superior in predicting SCAP and the models combining PCT and SOFA demonstrated superior performance to those of PCT or the CAP severity score alone. The AUCs of the PCT and CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA in predicting 28-day mortality were 0.822, 0.829, 0.813, 0.913 and 0.717, respectively. SOFA achieved the highest AUC and the combination of PCT and SOFA had the highest superiority over other combinations in predicting 28-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Serum PCT is a valuable single predictor for SCAP. SOFA is superior in prediction of 28-day mortality. Combination of PCT and SOFA could improve the performance of single predictors. More further studies with larger sample size are warranted to validate our results.

Time-dependent association of glucocorticoids with adverse outcome in community-acquired pneumonia: a 6-year prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal stress axis plays a crucial role in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), with high cortisol being associated with disease severity and corticosteroid treatment resulting in earlier time to recovery. Our aim in the present study was to compare different glucocorticoid hormones, including cortisol, 11-deoxycortisol, cortisone, and corticosterone, regarding their association with short- and long-term adverse outcomes in a well-defined CAP cohort. METHODS: We prospectively followed 285 patients with CAP from a previous Swiss multicenter trial for a median of 6.1 years and measured different admission glucocorticoid serum levels by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. We used adjusted Cox regression models to investigate associations between admission hormone levels and all-cause mortality at different time points. RESULTS: Mortality was 5.3% after 30 days and increased to 47.3% after 6 years. High admission cortisol was associated with adverse outcome after 30 days (adjusted OR 3.85, 95% CI 1.10-13.49, p = 0.035). In the long term (i.e.,), however, high admission cortisol was associated with better survival (adjusted HR after 3 years 0.53, 95% CI 0.32-0.89, p = 0.017; adjusted HR after 6 years 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.90, p = 0.015). Compared with 11-deoxycortisol, cortisone, and corticosterone, cortisol showed the highest association with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among different glucocorticoid hormones, cortisol showed the highest association with mortality in CAP. Whereas a more pronounced glucocorticoid stress response on hospital admission was associated with higher short-term adverse outcome, long-term outcome was favorable in these patients. These data should support the correct interpretation of glucocorticoid blood data.

Utility of Plasma Osteopontin Levels in Management of Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

Osteopontin (OPN) is an essential cytokine involved in immune cell recruitment and an important regulator of inflammation. The purpose of this study was to examine differences in OPN plasma levels between before and after antibiotic treatment in hospitalized adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). OPN levels were measured in 93 patients with CAP and 54 healthy controls using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The CURB-65, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were used to determine the CAP severity in patients upon initial hospitalization. A decline in the number of white blood cells (WBCs) and neutrophils, and decreases in the levels of OPN and C-reactive protein (CRP) were observed after antibiotic treatment. Only the plasma level of OPN, but not CRP, was correlated with the severity of CAP based on the PSI (r = 0.514, p < 0.001), CURB-65 (r = 0.396, p < 0.001), and APACHE II scores (r = 0.473, p < 0.001). The OPN level also showed a significant correlation with the length of hospital stay (r = 0.210, p = 0.044). In conclusion, plasma level of OPN may act as diagnostic adjuvant biomarkers for CAP and further play a role in clinical assessment of the severity of CAP, which could potentially guide the development of treatment strategies.

A novel method for rapid detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae antigens in blood.

In this study, we used "RAPIRUN(®)Streptococcus pneumoniae HS (otitis media/sinusitis) (RAPIRUN-HS)," a rapid S. pneumoniae antigen detection kit, to investigate methods for detecting S. pneumoniae antigens in blood of 32 bacterial pneumonia patients. We simultaneously performed PCR to detect S. pneumoniae in blood samples. The results of these tests were compared based on pneumonia severity, determined using the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) score classification. Four S. pneumoniae PCR-positive patients of the six severe pneumococcal pneumonia patients (PSI risk class IV/V) also tested positive using RAPIRUN-HS. Twenty-four mild to moderate pneumonia patients (PSI risk class I-III) were S. pneumoniae PCR-negative; of these, 21 tested negative using RAPIRUN-HS. The pneumococcal pneumonia patients testing positive using RAPIRUN-HS had low leukocyte counts and elevated C-reactive protein and procalcitonin levels, indicating that RAPIRUN-HS results were correlated with pneumonia severity. The time course evaluations of the laboratory tests for severe pneumococcal pneumonia patients showed that RAPIRUN-HS and S. pneumoniae PCR yielded positive results earlier than the changes in procalcitonin and IL-6. Thus, concomitant pneumococcal bacteremia was strongly suspected in patients testing positive using RAPIRUN-HS. In conclusion, RAPIRUN-HS may be useful for determining whether to admit patients into hospitals and selecting the appropriate antimicrobial agents.

The Roles of the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Time to First Antibiotic Dose as Predictors of Outcome in Pneumococcal Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

PURPOSE: In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the role of comorbidities using the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and time to first antibiotic dose (TFAD) in patients with pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PCAP). METHODS: All consecutive ER admissions with PCAP who were hospitalized in the University Hospital, Zurich between 2006 and 2012 were included. The primary outcome was to determine possible determinants of all-cause in-hospital mortality (ACIHM). The second endpoint was to detect risk factors for adverse events (AEs) and determinants of length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: 108 subjects (mean age 57.6 years) were included. The median (IQR) CCI was 4 (1, 8). The median (IQR) TFAD was 210 (150, 280) min. ACIHM was 6.5 % (7/108), and median (IQR) LOS was 9 (6, 14) days. PCAP-related AEs were observed in 57 cases (52.8 %). In the multivariable analysis, neither CCI nor TFAD was associated with the outcome measures. Pneumonia severity index (PSI) was the only statistically significant predictor of ACIHM (HR 1.31/10 point increase, 95 % CI 1.12-1.53, p = 0.001) and AE rate (OR 1.31, 95 % CI 1.15-1.50, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study including comparatively young patients with rather mild disease severity, we found no strong evidence supporting that CCI or TFAD influenced short-term outcome measures of PCAP. Yet, pneumonia severity appears to be the most important factor for the outcome.

Plasma Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Level as a Predictor of the Severity of Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

Monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1 increases in the serum of immunocompetent patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the correlation between the circulating level of MCP-1 and severity of CAP remains unclear. This study investigated differential changes in the plasma MCP-1 levels of patients with CAP before and after an antibiotic treatment and further analyzes the association between the CAP severity and MCP-1 levels. We measured the plasma MCP-1 levels of 137 patients with CAP and 74 healthy controls by using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Upon initial hospitalization, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II); confusion, urea level, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age of >64 years (CURB-65); and pneumonia severity index (PSI) scores were determined for assessing the CAP severity in these patients. The antibiotic treatment reduced the number of white blood cells (WBCs) and neutrophils as well as the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) and MCP-1. The plasma MCP-1 level, but not the CRP level or WBC count, correlated with the CAP severity according to the PSI (r = 0.509, p < 0.001), CURB-65 (r = 0.468, p < 0.001), and APACHE II (r = 0.360, p < 0.001) scores. We concluded that MCP-1 levels act in the development of CAP and are involved in the severity of CAP.

Procalcitonin levels in community-acquired pneumonia - correlation with aetiology and severity.

We studied procalcitonin (PCT) levels at hospital admittance and their association with aetiology and severity in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Median PCT concentrations were higher in bacteraemic patients than in those without bacteraemia (6.11 µg/L vs 0.34 µg/L, p = 0.0002), in patients with non-bacteraemic pneumococcal aetiology than in those infected with other classic bacteria (1.18 vs 0.18, p = 0.038), and in patients with pneumococcal as compared with viral aetiology (2.43 vs 0.24, p = 0.017). When aetiology, bacteraemia and severity according to the pneumonia severity index (PSI) were included in logistic regression analyses with PCT > 0.5 as a dependent variable, the odds ratio (OR) for non-bacteraemic pneumococcal aetiology was 5.7 (p = 0.008) and 3.0 ( p = 0.1) for PSI 4-5. A separate analysis for bacteraemia and PSI 4-5 showed an OR of 17.5 (p = 0.008) and 2.7 (p = 0.092), respectively. In CAP patients, high PCT seems to be a good marker for invasive disease and pneumococcal aetiology. As a predictor of severity it appears to be less important.

[Diagnostic and prognostic power of biomarkers to improve the management of community acquired pneumonia in the emergency department]. / Poder diagnóstico y pronóstico de los biomarcadores para mejorar el manejo de la neumonía adquirida en la comunidad en los servicios de urgencias.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the usefulness and performance of several biomarkers [C-reactive protein (CRP), mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), procalcitonin (PCT)] and lactate in predicting short- and medium-term mortality compared with the prognostic severity scales (PSS) usually employed for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and in assessing the aetiological suspicion of infection by Streptococcus pneumoniae and bacteraemia. METHODS: Observational, prospective and analytical study was conducted on patients who were diagnosed with CAP in our emergency department (ED). The data collected included socio-demographic and comorbidity variables, Charlson index, priority level according to the Spanish Triage System (STS), stage in the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and in the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age ≥65years), criteria of severe CAP, microbiological studies, and biomarkers determinations. The patients were followed-up for 180days to calculate the prognostic power and the diagnostic performance for bacteraemia and aetiology. RESULTS: A total of 127patients were finally enrolled in the study. The 30-day mortality was 10.3% (13), and 22.6% (28) at 180 days. Blood cultures were positive in 29 patients (23%) and S.pneumoniae was identified as the responsible pathogen in 28 cases (22.2%). The area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) for lactate and MR-proADM to predict 30-day mortality was 0.898 (95%CI: 0.824-0.973; P<.0001) and 0.892 (95%CI: 0.811-0.974; P<.0001), respectively, and for MR-proADM at 180 days it was 0.921 (95%CI: 0.874-0.968; P<.0001). The AUC-ROC for PCT to predict bacteraemia was 0.952 (95%CI: 0.898-1.000; P<.0001) and, considering a cut-off value ≥0.95ng/ml, the negative predictive value (NPV) and the likelihood ratio (LR+) were 97.8% and 9.03, respectively. Using a PCT cut-off value >0.85ng/ml, the NPV and the LR+ were 96.6% and 5.89%, respectively, to predict a S.pneumoniae infection. CONCLUSIONS: MR-proADM and lactate showed a similar or even better performance for 30-day intra-hospital mortality than PSI, CURB-65, STS and CAP severity criteria in patients diagnosed with CAP (P>.05). Furthermore, the MR-proADM capacity to predict 180-day mortality was higher than PSS and the rest of biomarkers (P>.05), and its AUC-ROC increased if it was used in combination with PSI, CURB65 and STS. The determination of PCT has a remarkable diagnostic performance to rule out bacteraemia and to orientate the aetiology towards a S.pneumoniae infection.

Pneumonia in Geriatric Patients and Prediction of Mortality Based on the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), CURB-65, Frailty Index (FI), and FI-Lab21 Scores.

Background Elderly individuals have higher rates of morbidity, death, and financial burden due to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Objectives The study aimed to assess the outcomes of geriatric pneumonia patients and the prediction of mortality based on the pneumonia severity index (PSI), CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and 65-year-old score), frailty index (frailty index), and FI-Lab21 (21-item frailty index based on laboratory) scores. Methods A prospective observational study was conducted on 100 elderly patients (≥ 65 years) with CAP. PSI, CURB-65, FI, and FI-Lab21 scores were determined. The outcome measures were 30-day mortality and the risk factors of mortality. The mortality predictive value of scores were compared. Results The mean age of the study subjects was 72.14 ± 6.1 years. Specifically, 76 (76%) were male, and 24 (24%) were females. During the follow-up, there was a 30-day mortality rate of 57%. On performing multivariate regression, the PSI score and severely frail were significant independent risk factors of mortality, with an odds ratio of 1.046 and 52.213, respectively. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) showed that the performance of the PSI score (AUC: 0.952; 95% CI: 0.910-0.994), CURB-65 score (AUC: 0.936; 95% CI: 0.893-0.978), and severely frail (AUC: 0.907; 95% CI: 0.851-0.962) was outstanding, while FI-Lab21 (AUC: 0.515; 95% CI: 0.400-0.631) was non-significant. Among all the parameters, the PSI score was the best predictor of mortality at the cutoff points of >121 with a diagnostic accuracy of 92%. Conclusion CAP in the elderly carries a high mortality rate. Out of PSI, CURB-65, FI, and FI-Lab21 scores, the PSI holds the best predicting ability for mortality.

Prospective observational study of Trichomonas tenax infection in patients with pneumonia.

Trichomonas tenax, an oral commensal parasite commonly found in the human mouth, is associated with periodontitis and poor oral hygiene. However, it has also been identified in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) of individuals with lung diseases. Notably, significant quantities of T. tenax have been isolated following bronchoscopy in cases of empyema and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Furthermore, research has demonstrated its ability to induce inflammation in pulmonary epithelial cells. To comprehend the potential role of T. tenax in pneumonia, it is crucial to elucidate the relationship between the parasite and the disease. We investigated the clinical factors associated with T. tenax infection in patients with pneumonia. Employing nested polymerase chain reactions, we amplified nucleic acids from BALF and analyzed the relationships between T. tenax and various clinical factors. Our data revealed a significant association between T. tenax and bacterial infections, high pneumonia severity index (PSI) scores, nasogastric tube feeding, and pulmonary complications. Logistic regression analyses also showed strong associations between T. tenax and these clinical factors in pneumonia patients. These findings suggest that T. tenax infection in pneumonia is accompanied by bacterial infection and severe clinical manifestations.

The Potential Role of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Beta-Blockers in Reducing Pneumonia Severity in Older Adults.

Background Understanding the impact of pharmacological therapy on pneumonia severity is crucial for effective clinical management. The impact of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis) and beta-blockers (BBs) on pneumonia severity remains unknown, warranting further investigation. Methodology This retrospective study examined the hospital records of inpatients (≥75 years) admitted with community-acquired pneumonia in 2021. Pneumonia severity associated with the use of pre-established ACEi and BB therapy was documented using CURB-65 (confusion, uraemia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 years) and pneumonia severity index (PSI) scores. Descriptive statistics and multivariable linear regression were used to analyse differences across BB therapy, ACEi therapy, their combination, or neither (control group). Results A total of 803 patient records were examined, of whom 382 (47.6%) were male and 421 (52.4%) were female. Sample sizes for each group were as follows: control (n = 492), BB only (n = 185), ACEi only (n = 68), and BB + ACEi (n = 58). Distribution of aspiration pneumonia (AP) versus non-AP for each group, respectively, was control (21.1% vs. 78.9%), BB only (9.7% vs. 90.3%), ACEi only (7.3% vs. 92.7%), and ACEi + BB (12.1% vs. 87.9%). No significant differences in PSI and CURB-65 scores were found between intervention groups even after controlling for patient characteristics and irrespective of AP or non-AP aetiology. Patients with AP had significantly higher CURB-65 (p = 0.026) and PSI scores (p = 0.044) compared to those with non-AP. Conclusions Pre-prescribed ACEi or BB therapy did not appear to be associated with differences in pneumonia severity. There were no differences in pneumonia severity scores with ACEi and BB monotherapy or combined ACEi and BB therapy.

Circulating level of lipocalin 2 as a predictor of severity in patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the differential plasma levels of lipocalin 2 (LCN2) and its complex with MMP-9 (where MMP is matrix metalloproteinase) before and after antibiotic treatment in hospitalized adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHOD: Plasma LCN2 and LCN2/MMP-9 complex levels were measured in 61 adult patients with CAP and 60 healthy controls using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RESULTS: A decrease in the number of white blood cells (WBCs) and neutrophils and decreases in the levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), LCN2, and LCN2/MMP-9 complex were observed after antibiotic treatment. The plasma level of LCN2, but not that of CRP, was correlated with the severity of CAP based on the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI; r = 0.333, P = 0.009), confusion, urea, respiratory rate and blood pressure (CURB)-65 (r = 0.288, P = 0.024), and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores (r = 0.328, P = 0.010). LCN2 levels were also significantly correlated with LCN2/MMP-9 levels and the numbers of WBCs or neutrophils. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma levels of LCN2 and the LCN2/MMP-9 complex can act as adjuvant diagnostic biomarkers for CAP. Plasma LCN2 might play a further role in the clinical assessment of the severity of CAP, which could potentially guide the development of future treatment strategies.

Predictive value of platelet-related parameters combined with pneumonia severity index score for mortality rate of patients with severe pneumonia.

Background: To analyse the predictive value of platelet-related parameters combined with pneumonia severity index (PSI) score for the mortality rate of patients with severe pneumonia. Methods: The clinical data of 428 severe pneumonia patients were retrospectively analysed. They were divided into survivor and death groups according to 28-day prognosis. Platelet-related parameters platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet-large-cell ratio (P-LCR) and platelet distribution width (PDW) were measured within 24 hours after admission. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. The areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were used to describe the predictive efficiencies of platelet-related parameters, PSI score and their combination for death within 28 days. Results: On the 28th day, there were 184 deaths and 244 survivors, and the deaths had significantly higher PLT and PSI score but lower PDW, MPV and P-LCR than those of the survivors (P<0.05). The combination of platelet-related parameters and PSI score had the highest sensitivity (96.56%) and specificity (99.34%) and the largest AUC (0.902) for predicting 28-day mortality. Conclusion: PLT, PDW, MPV and P-LCR are significantly abnormal in patients with severe pneumonia, and the combination of platelet-related parameters with PSI score has the highest predictive value for 28-day mortality.

Combining a Frailty Index Based on Laboratory Data and Pneumonia Severity Assessments to Predict In-Hospital Outcomes in Older Adults with Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: Due to the increased morbidity, mortality, and cost of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older people, strategies directed at improving disease evaluation and prevention are imperative. We independently compared the 30-day in-hospital mortality prediction ability of a frailty index based on laboratory data (FI-Lab) with that of the CURB-65 and the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and then proposed combining them to further improve prediction efficiency. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥ 65 years (n = 2039) with CAP who were admitted to Jiangsu Provincial People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University and Jiangsu Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine from January 2019 to June 2022. MEASURES: The 29-item FI-Lab, PSI and, CURB-65 were administered at admission. We defined frailty by the cut-off value of the FI-Lab score (> 0.43). Multivariable logistic regression analysis, together with the calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), was conducted to identify stratified risks and relationships between the three indices and 30-day mortality. Participants were divided into the following three groups based on age: 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥ 85 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality due to frailty were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 495 participants ranging from 65 to 100 years of age were ultimately included and divided into age groups (65-74 years, n = 190, 38.4%; 75-84 years, n = 183, 37.0%; ≥ 85 years, n = 122, 24.6%). A total of 142 (28.7%) of the 495 patients were defined as having frailty. All three scores tested in this study were significantly associated with 30-day mortality in the total sample. The ORs were as follows: 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.09, P < 0.001) and 2.33 (95% CI: 1.26-4.31, P = 0.007) for the FI-Lab when the score was treated as a continuous and categorical variable, respectively; 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05, P < 0.001) for the PSI; and 3.70 (95% CI: 2.48-5.50, P < 0.001) for the CURB-65. In the total sample, the ROC-AUCs were 0.783 (95% CI: 0.744-0.819) for the FI-Lab, 0.812 (95% CI: 0.775-0.845) for the PSI, and 0.799 (95% CI: 0.761-0.834) for the CURB-65 (P < 0.001). The ROC-AUC slightly improved when the FI-Lab was added to the PSI (AUC 0.850, 95% CI: 0.809-0.892, P = 0.031) and to the CURB-65 (AUC 0.839, 95% CI: 0.794-0.885, P = 0.002). Older patients with frailty showed a higher risk of in-hospital mortality, with an HR of 2.25 (95% CI: 1.14-3.58, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The FI-Lab seems to generate simple and readily available data, suggesting that it could be a useful complement to the CURB-65 and the PSI as effective predictors of 30-day mortality due to CAP in older populations.

The Battle of the Pneumonia Predictors: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Comparing the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 Score in Predicting Mortality and the Need for ICU Support.

The CURB-65 (confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) score and the pneumonia severity index (PSI) are widely used and recommended in predicting 30-day mortality and the need for intensive care support in community-acquired pneumonia. This study aims to compare the performance of these two severity scores in both mortality prediction and the need for intensive care support. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out, following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) 2020 guidelines, and PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were searched for articles published from 2012 to 2022. The reference lists of the included studies were also searched to retrieve possible additional studies. Twenty-five studies reporting prognostic information for CURB 65 and PSI were identified. ReviewManager (RevMan) 5.4.1 was used to produce risk ratios, and a random effects model was used to pool them. Both PSI and CURB-65 showed a high strength in identifying high-risk patients. However, CURB-65 was slightly better in early mortality prediction and had more sensitivity (96.7%) and specificity (89.3%) in predicting admission to intensive care support. Thus, CURB-65 seems to be the preferred tool in predicting mortality and the need for admission into intensive care support.

Clinical features and prognostic predictors in patients with rheumatic diseases complicated by Pneumocystis pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the clinical outcomes and risk factors of mortality in patients with rheumatic diseases complicated by Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP). METHODS: Between November 2015 and April 2021, patients with rheumatic diseases with PCP in a tertiary referral hospital were retrospectively enrolled. The diagnosis of PCP requires the fulfillment of clinical, radiographic, and microbiological criteria. Factors associated with in-hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 128 patients with rheumatic diseases who had a positive quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay for Pneumocystis jirovecii were screened, and 72 patients were included in the final analysis. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) pneumonia severity index (PSI) was 101.5 (77.0-132.0). The median (IQR) adjunctive corticosteroid dosage was 0.6 (0.4-0.9) mg/kg/day prednisolone equivalent. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the optimal cutoff point of median adjunctive corticosteroid dosage was 0.6 mg/kg/day to predict in-hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, median adjunctive corticosteroid dosage ≥0.6 mg/kg/day and PSI >90 were independent factors of in-hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: A median adjunctive corticosteroid dosage of ≥0.6 mg/kg/day might be associated with mortality in patients with rheumatic diseases complicated by PCP.

The pneumonia severity index: Assessment and comparison to popular machine learning classifiers.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumonia is the top communicable cause of death worldwide. Accurate prognostication of patient severity with Community Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) allows better patient care and hospital management. The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was developed in 1997 as a tool to guide clinical practice by stratifying the severity of patients with CAP. While the PSI has been evaluated against other clinical stratification tools, it has not been evaluated against multiple classic machine learning classifiers in various metrics over large sample size. METHODS: In this paper, we evaluated and compared the prediction performance of nine classic machine learning classifiers with PSI over 34,720 adult (age 18+) patient records collected from 749 hospitals from 2009 to 2018 in the United States on Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) and Average Precision (Precision-Recall AUC). RESULTS: Machine learning classifiers, such as Random Forest, provided a statistically highly(p < 0.001) significant improvement (∼33% in PR AUC and ∼6% in ROC AUC) compared to PSI and required only 7 input values (compared to 20 parameters used in PSI). DISCUSSION: Because of its ease of use, PSI remains a very strong clinical decision tool, but machine learning classifiers can provide better prediction accuracy performance. Comparing prediction performance across multiple metrics such as PR AUC, instead of ROC AUC alone can provide additional insight.

Soluble form of suppression of tumorigenicity-2 predicts clinical stability of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia.

The soluble form of the suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) is a biomarker for risk classification and prognosis of heart failure, and its production and secretion in the alveolar epithelium are significantly correlated with the inflammation-inducing in pulmonary diseases. However, the predictive value of sST2 in pulmonary disease had not been widely studied. This study investigated the potential value in prognosis and risk classification of sST2 in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. Clinical data of ninety-three CAP inpatients were retrieved and their sST2 and other clinical indices were studied. Cox regression models were constructed to probe the sST2's predictive value for patients' restoring clinical stability and its additive effect on pneumonia severity index and CURB-65 scores. Patients who did not reach clinical stability within the defined time (30 days from hospitalization) have had significantly higher levels of sST2 at admission (P < 0.05). In univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, a high sST2 level (≥72.8 ng/mL) was an independent reverse predictor of clinical stability (P < 0.05). The Cox regression model combined with sST2 and CURB-65 (AUC: 0.96) provided a more accurate risk classification than CURB-65 (AUC:0.89) alone (NRI: 1.18, IDI: 0.16, P < 0.05). The Cox regression model combined with sST2 and pneumonia severity index (AUC: 0.96) also provided a more accurate risk classification than pneumonia severity index (AUC:0.93) alone (NRI: 0.06; IDI: 0.06, P < 0.05). sST2 at admission can be used as an independent early prognostic indicator for CAP patients. Moreover, it can improve the predictive power of CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index score.