Impact of Abuse Deterrent Formulations of Opioids in Patients With Chronic Pain in the United States: A Cost-Effectiveness Model.

OBJECTIVE: Opioid abuse is a significant public health problem in the United States. We evaluate the clinical effectiveness and economic impact of abuse-deterrent formulations (ADF) of opioids relative to non-ADF opioids in preventing abuse. METHODS: We developed a cost-effectiveness model simulating 2 cohorts of 100 000 noncancer, chronic-pain patients newly prescribed either ADF or non-ADF extended-release (ER) opioids and followed them over 5 years, tracking new events of opioid abuse and opioid-related overdose deaths in addition to tracking 5-year cumulative costs of therapeutic use and abuse of ADF and non-ADF opioids. Patients in each cohort entered the model for therapeutic opioid use from where they could continue in that pathway, discontinue opioid use, or abuse opioids or die of opioid overdose-related or unrelated causes. In addition, one-way sensitivity and scenario analysis were conducted. RESULTS: Over a 5-year time period, using ADF opioids prevented an additional 2300 new cases of opioid abuse at an additional cost of approximately $535 million to the healthcare sector. Threshold analyses showed that a 40% decrease in ADF opioid costs was required to attain cost neutrality between the 2 cohorts, whereas a 100% effectiveness in abuse reduction still did not result in cost neutrality. A 43% decrease in diversion with ADFs relative to non-ADFs was required to attain cost neutrality. Including a societal perspective produced results directionally similar to the base-case analysis findings. CONCLUSION: ADF opioids have the potential to prevent new cases of opioid abuse, but at substantially higher costs to the health system.

Behavioral economic demand metrics for abuse deterrent and abuse potential quantification.

INTRODUCTION: Behavioral economics provides a framework for quantifying drug abuse potential that can inform public health risk, clinical treatment, and research. Hypothetical purchase task (HPT) questionnaires may provide a low-cost and sensitive method by which to measure and predict the appeal of pharmaceutical drugs that differ by formulation. However, the validity of this type of analysis must be empirically established by comparing the "essential value" (EV) of different drugs across subgroups. PROCEDURES: This pilot study used HPT assessments and the Exponential Model of Demand to quantify the EV of opioid medications-specifically, easily tampered formulations versus (vs.) abuse-deterrent formulations-in patients with a history of opioid abuse. MAIN FINDINGS: Participants had more inelastic demand for opioid pills than for cigarettes and alcohol. Participants with experience manipulating pills (M group) had more inelastic demand for standard pills vs. participants with no manipulation experience (NM group), and the M group had a more elastic demand for the abuse-deterrent opioid pill than for the standard pill. There was no effect of formulation in the NM group and there was no difference in demand elasticity for abuse-deterrent pills between the two groups. There was a positive correlation between the EVs of different drugs, and between some behavioral economic indices and treatment variables. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that HPTs may provide a sensitive measure of abuse potential that can distinguish between different formulations in at-risk populations.

Projecting the cost, utilization, and patient care impact of prescribing extended release non-abuse-deterrent opioids to chronic pain patients.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate healthcare resource utilization, associated costs, and number needed to harm (NNH) from a physician's decision to prescribe extended-release (ER) non-abuse-deterrent opioids (non-ADO) as compared to ER ADOs in a chronic pain population. DESIGN: A 12-month probabilistic simulation model was developed to estimate the reduction of misuse and/or abuse from a physician's prescribing decisions for 10,000 patients. Model inputs included probabilities for opioid misuse and/or abuse-related events, opioid discontinuation, and switching from ADO to non-ADO. Estimated reductions in abuse associated with ADOs were obtained from positive subjective measures using human abuse liability studies. The model was run separately for commercial, Medicare, Medicaid, and Veterans Administration (VA) populations. The difference in healthcare resource utilization and associated costs (2015 USD) between the ADO and non-ADO simulations was calculated. NNH for non-ADO was also calculated. RESULTS: Misuse and/or abuse-related events for patients prescribed ER non-ADOs ranged from 223-1,410 and associated costs ranged from $20-$98 per patient for commercial and Medicare populations, respectively. Prescribing ER ADOs were associated with 87, 289, 264, and 417 fewer misuse and/or abuse-related events, saving $8, $35, $21, and $29 per patient in commercial, VA, Medicaid, and Medicare populations, respectively. NNH ranged from 185 in the commercial population to 40 in the Medicare population. Results were sensitive to decreases in the probability of misuse and/or abuse events but showed reductions. CONCLUSIONS: A physician's decision to prescribe ER ADOs could lead to large reductions in misuse and/or abuse-related events and associated costs across many patient populations.