"Late-stage" deforestation enhances storm trends in coastal West Africa.

Deforestation affects local and regional hydroclimate through changes in heating and moistening of the atmosphere. In the tropics, deforestation leads to warming, but its impact on rainfall is more complex, as it depends on spatial scale and synoptic forcing. Most studies have focused on Amazonia, highlighting that forest edges locally enhance convective rainfall, whereas rainfall decreases over drier, more extensive, deforested regions. Here, we examine Southern West Africa (SWA), an example of "late-stage" deforestation, ongoing since 1900 within a 300-km coastal belt. From three decades of satellite data, we demonstrate that the upward trend in convective activity is strongly modulated by deforestation patterns. The frequency of afternoon storms is enhanced over and downstream of deforested patches on length scales from 16 to 196 km, with greater increases for larger patches. The results are consistent with the triggering of storms by mesoscale circulations due to landscape heterogeneity. Near the coast, where sea breeze convection dominates the diurnal cycle, storm frequency has doubled in deforested areas, attributable to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast. These areas include fast-growing cities such as Freetown and Monrovia, where enhanced storm frequency coincides with high vulnerability to flash flooding. The proximity of the ocean likely explains why ongoing deforestation across SWA continues to increase storminess, as it favors the impact of mesoscale dynamics over moisture availability. The coastal location of deforestation in SWA is typical of many tropical deforestation hotspots, and the processes highlighted here are likely to be of wider global relevance.

Climate regulation processes are linked to the functional composition of plant communities in European forests, shrublands, and grasslands.

Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate by reflecting solar irradiation, evaporative cooling, and carbon sequestration. Yet very little is known about how plant traits affect climate regulation processes (CRPs) in different habitat types. Here, we used linear and random forest models to relate the community-weighted mean and variance values of 19 plant traits (summarized into eight trait axes) to the climate-adjusted proportion of reflected solar irradiation, evapotranspiration, and net primary productivity across 36,630 grid cells at the European extent, classified into 10 types of forest, shrubland, and grassland habitats. We found that these trait axes were more tightly linked to log evapotranspiration (with an average of 6.2% explained variation) and the proportion of reflected solar irradiation (6.1%) than to net primary productivity (4.9%). The highest variation in CRPs was explained in forest and temperate shrubland habitats. Yet, the strength and direction of these relationships were strongly habitat-dependent. We conclude that any spatial upscaling of the effects of plant communities on CRPs must consider the relative contribution of different habitat types.

Drought stress and hurricane defoliation influence mountain clouds and moisture recycling in a tropical forest.

Mountain ranges generate clouds, precipitation, and perennial streamflow for water supplies, but the role of forest cover in mountain hydrometeorology and cloud formation is not well understood. In the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico, mountains are immersed in clouds nightly, providing a steady precipitation source to support the tropical forest ecosystems and human uses. A severe drought in 2015 and the removal of forest canopy (defoliation) by Hurricane Maria in 2017 created natural experiments to examine interactions between the living forest and hydroclimatic processes. These unprecedented land-based observations over 4.5 y revealed that the orographic cloud system was highly responsive to local land-surface moisture and energy balances moderated by the forest. Cloud layer thickness and immersion frequency on the mountain slope correlated with antecedent rainfall, linking recycled terrestrial moisture to the formation of mountain clouds; and cloud-base altitude rose during drought stress and posthurricane defoliation. Changes in diurnal cycles of temperature and vapor-pressure deficit and an increase in sensible versus latent heat flux quantified local meteorological response to forest disturbances. Temperature and water vapor anomalies along the mountain slope persisted for at least 12 mo posthurricane, showing that understory recovery did not replace intact forest canopy function. In many similar settings around the world, prolonged drought, increasing temperatures, and deforestation could affect orographic cloud precipitation and the humans and ecosystems that depend on it.

Large-scale commodity agriculture exacerbates the climatic impacts of Amazonian deforestation.

In the Amazon rainforest, land use following deforestation is diverse and dynamic. Mounting evidence indicates that the climatic impacts of forest loss can also vary considerably, depending on specific features of the affected areas. The size of the deforested patches, for instance, was shown to modulate the characteristics of local climatic impacts. Nonetheless, the influence of different types of land use and management strategies on the magnitude of local climatic changes remains uncertain. Here, we evaluated the impacts of large-scale commodity farming and rural settlements on surface temperature, rainfall patterns, and energy fluxes. Our results reveal that changes in land-atmosphere coupling are induced not only by deforestation size but also, by land use type and management patterns inside the deforested areas. We provide evidence that, in comparison with rural settlements, deforestation caused by large-scale commodity agriculture is more likely to reduce convective rainfall and increase land surface temperature. We demonstrate that these differences are mainly caused by a more intensive management of the land, resulting in significantly lower vegetation cover throughout the year, which reduces latent heat flux. Our findings indicate an urgent need for alternative agricultural practices, as well as forest restoration, for maintaining ecosystem processes and mitigating change in the local climates across the Amazon basin.

Retrospective analysis of epidemic thunderstorm asthma in children in Yulin, northwest China.

BACKGROUND: An epidemic of thunderstorm asthma in pediatric patients occurred in Yulin, a northwest city of China, on 11 September 2018. We described the epidemic and retrospectively analyzed the demographic and clinical aspects of the involved children. METHODS: The caseload data of patients were collected from the hospital information system in Yulin Pediatric Hospital. The detailed document of hospitalized children with thunderstorm asthma was sourced from the medical records. RESULTS: The mean number of daily visits to emergency/outpatient department and the daily admission to hospital were 2.7 and 16 times, respectively, than on the other days of September. A gender prominence of males was observed in both emergency/outpatient and inpatient department. Among the 51 hospitalized children with detailed medical records, 56% of them had never experienced or were diagnosed with asthma and 25% had confirmed diagnosis of asthma. Sixty-seven percent had a history of allergic rhinitis during August and September. Seventy-six percent of the hospitalized children presented as moderate asthma. Ninety-four percent of the pediatric patients had positive IgE against mugwort pollen and 78% were monosensitized to pollen. CONCLUSION: Thunderstorm asthma can affect children, especially who has allergic rhinitis or asthma without preventive management. Mugwort is also an aeroallergen in thunderstorm asthma attacks. IMPACT: Thunderstorm can induce asthma attacks in children with allergic rhinitis owing to mugwort and aggravate symptoms in children with confirmed diagnosis of asthma. Children with mugwort allergy are susceptible to thunderstorm asthma and a preponderance of boys was observed. Better identification of allergic children to mugwort, giving suitable protective measures during thunderstorm and standard therapy to existing allergic situation could be a benefit for children at risk of thunderstorm asthma.

What drives cooperative breeding?

Cooperative breeding, in which more than a pair of conspecifics cooperate to raise young at a single nest or brood, is widespread among vertebrates but highly variable in its geographic distribution. Particularly vexing has been identifying the ecological correlates of this phenomenon, which has been suggested to be favored in populations inhabiting both relatively stable, productive environments and in populations living under highly variable and unpredictable conditions. Griesser et al. provide a novel approach to this problem, performing a phylogenetic analysis indicating that family living is an intermediate step between nonsocial and cooperative breeding birds. They then examine the ecological and climatic conditions associated with these different social systems, concluding that cooperative breeding emerges when family living is favored in highly productive environments, followed secondarily by selection for cooperative breeding when environmental conditions deteriorate and within-year variability increases. Combined with recent work addressing the fitness consequences of cooperative breeding, Griesser et al.'s contribution stands to move the field forward by demonstrating that the evolution of complex adaptations such as cooperative breeding may only be understood when each of the steps leading to it are identified and carefully integrated.

Projected Behavioral Impacts of Global Climate Change.

The projected behavioral impacts of global climate change emanate from environmental changes including temperature elevation, extreme weather events, and rising air pollution. Negative affect, interpersonal and intergroup conflict, and possibly psychological distress increase with rising temperature. Droughts, floods, and severe storms diminish quality of life, elevate stress, produce psychological distress, and may elevate interpersonal and intergroup conflict. Recreational opportunities are compromised by extreme weather, and children may suffer delayed cognitive development. Elevated pollutants concern citizens and may accentuate psychological distress. Outdoor recreational activity is curtailed by ambient pollutants. Limitations and issues in need of further investigation include the following: lack of data on direct experience with climate change rather than indirect assessments related to projected changes; poor spatial resolution in environmental exposures and behavioral assessments; few rigorous quasi-experimental studies; overreliance on self-reports of behavioral outcomes; little consideration of moderator effects; and scant investigation of underlying psychosocial processes to explain projected behavioral impacts.

Interactions between plants and soil shaping the root microbiome under abiotic stress.

Plants growing in soil develop close associations with soil microorganisms, which inhabit the areas around, on, and inside their roots. These microbial communities and their associated genes - collectively termed the root microbiome - are diverse and have been shown to play an important role in conferring abiotic stress tolerance to their plant hosts. In light of growing concerns over the threat of water and nutrient stress facing terrestrial ecosystems, especially those used for agricultural production, increased emphasis has been placed on understanding how abiotic stress conditions influence the composition and functioning of the root microbiome and the ultimate consequences for plant health. However, the composition of the root microbiome under abiotic stress conditions will not only reflect shifts in the greater bulk soil microbial community from which plants recruit their root microbiome but also plant responses to abiotic stress, which include changes in root exudate profiles and morphology. Exploring the relative contributions of these direct and plant-mediated effects on the root microbiome has been the focus of many studies in recent years. Here, we review the impacts of abiotic stress affecting terrestrial ecosystems, specifically flooding, drought, and changes in nitrogen and phosphorus availability, on bulk soil microbial communities and plants that interact to ultimately shape the root microbiome. We conclude with a perspective outlining possible directions for future research needed to advance our understanding of the complex molecular and biochemical interactions between soil, plants, and microbes that ultimately determine the composition of the root microbiome under abiotic stress.

New formulations for prediction of velocity at limit of deposition in storm sewers based on a stochastic technique.

Sedimentation in storm sewers strongly depends on velocity at limit of deposition. This study provides application of a novel stochastic-based model to predict the densimetric Froude number in sewer pipes. In this way, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is used to develop two parametric equations, called GLUE-based four-parameter and GLUE-based two-parameter (GBTP) models to enhance the prediction accuracy of the velocity at the limit of deposition. A number of performance indices are calculated in training and testing phases to compare the developed models with the conventional regression-based equations available in the literature. Based on the obtained performance indices and some graphical techniques, the research findings confirm that a significant enhancement in prediction performance is achieved through the proposed GBTP compared with the previously developed formulas in the literature. To make a quantified comparison between the established and literature models, an index, called improvement index (IM), is computed. This index is a resultant of all the selected indices, and this indicator demonstrates that GBTP is capable of providing the most performance improvement in both training (IMtrain = 9.2%) and testing (IMtrain = 11.3%) phases, comparing with a well-known formula in this context.

The 2016 Melbourne thunderstorm asthma epidemic: Risk factors for severe attacks requiring hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: The world's most catastrophic and deadly thunderstorm asthma epidemic struck Melbourne, Australia, on November 21, 2016. OBJECTIVE: Among thunderstorm-affected patients presenting to emergency rooms (ERs), we investigated risk factors predicting severe attacks requiring admission to hospital. METHODS: Thunderstorm-affected patients were identified from ER records at the eight major Melbourne health services and interviewed by telephone. Risk factors for hospital admission were analyzed. RESULTS: We interviewed 1435/2248 (64%) of thunderstorm-affected patients, of whom 164 (11.4%) required hospital admission. Overall, rhinitis was present in 87%, and current asthma was present in 28%. Odds for hospital admission were higher with increasing age (odds ratio 1.010, 95% CI 1.002, 1.019) and among individuals with current asthma (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.87, 95% CI 1.26, 2.78). Prior hospitalization for asthma in the previous 12 months further increased the odds for hospital admission (aOR 3.16, 95% CI 1.63, 6.12). Among patients of Asian ethnicity, the odds for hospital admission were lower than for non-Asian patients (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.38, 0.94), but higher if born in Australia (OR = 5.42, 95% CI 1.56, 18.83). CONCLUSIONS: In epidemic thunderstorm asthma patients who presented to the ER, higher odds for hospital admission among patients with known asthma were further amplified by recent asthma admission, highlighting the vulnerability conferred by suboptimal disease control. Odds for hospital admission were lower in Asian patients born overseas, but higher in Asian patients born locally, than in non-Asian patients; these observations suggest susceptibility to severe thunderstorm asthma may be enhanced by gene-environment interactions.

Thunderstorm Asthma and Climate Change.

This JAMA Insights in the Climate Change and Health Series defines thunderstorm asthma, describes its effects and increased rate of occurrence, and highlights recommendations for improved response during future events.

Infectious Diseases in a Changing Climate.

This JAMA Insights in the Climate Change and Health series discusses the importance of clinicians having awareness of changes in the geographic range, seasonality, and intensity of transmission of infectious diseases to help them diagnose, treat, and prevent these diseases.

High-frequency greenhouse gas flux measurement system detects winter storm surge effects on salt marsh.

The physical controlling factors on coastal plant communities are among the most dynamic of known ecosystems, but climate change alters coastal surface and subsurface hydrologic regimes, which makes rapid measurement of greenhouse gas fluxes critical. Greenhouse gas exchange rates in these terrestrial-aquatic ecosystems are highly variable worldwide with climate, soil type, plant community, and weather. Therefore, increasing data collection and availability should be a priority. Here, we demonstrate and validate physical and analytical modifications to automated soil-flux chamber measurement methods for unattended use in tidally driven wetlands, allowing the high-frequency capture of storm surge and day/night dynamics. Winter CO2 flux from Sarcocornia perennis marsh to the atmosphere was significantly greater during the day (2.8 mmol m-2  hr-1 ) than the night (2.2 mmol m-2  hr-1 ; p < 0.001), while CH4 was significantly greater during the night (0.16 µmol m-2  hr-1 ) than the day (-0.13 µmol m-2  hr-1 ; p = 0.04). The magnitude of CO2 flux during the day and the frequency of CH4 flux were reduced during a surge (p < 0.001). Surge did not significantly affect N2 O flux, which without non-detects was normally distributed around -24.2 nmol m-2  hr-1 . Analysis with sustained-flux global potentials and increased storm surge frequency scenarios, 2020 to 2100, suggested that the marsh in winter remains an atmospheric CO2 source. The modeled results showed an increased flux of CO2 to the atmosphere, while in soil, the uptake of CH4 increased and N2 O uptake decreased. We present analytical routines to correctly capture gas flux curves in dynamic overland flooding conditions and to flag data that are below detection limits or from unobserved chamber-malfunction situations. Storm surge is an important phenomenon globally, but event-driven, episodic factors can be poorly estimated by infrequent sampling. Wider deployment of this system would permit inclusion of surge events in greenhouse gas estimates.

How Do Storms Affect Asthma?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: There are observations in various geographical areas that thunderstorms occurring during pollen seasons can induce severe asthma attacks in pollinosis patients. RECENT FINDINGS: An accredited hypothesis explaining the association between thunderstorms and asthma suggests that storms can concentrate pollen grains at ground level, which may then release allergenic particles of respirable size in the atmosphere after their imbibition of water and rupture by osmotic shock. During the first 20-30 min of a thunderstorm, patients affected by pollen allergy may inhale a high quantity of the allergenic material that is dispersed into the atmosphere as a bioaerosol of allergenic particles, which can induce asthmatic reactions, often severe. Subjects without asthma symptoms, but affected by seasonal rhinitis can also experience an asthma attack. A key message is that all subjects affected by pollen allergy should be alerted to the danger of being outdoors during a thunderstorm in the pollen season, as such events may be an important cause of severe asthma exacerbations. In light of these observations, it is useful to predict thunderstorms and thus minimize thunderstorm-related events. Patients with respiratory allergy induced by pollens and molds need to be informed about a correct therapeutic approach of bronchial asthma by inhalation, including the use of bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids. The purpose of this review is to focalize epidemiological, etiopathogenetic, and clinical aspects of thunderstorm-related asthma.

Circular RNAs and Plant Stress Responses.

Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are a novel class of noncoding RNAs that have been extensively explored in the past few years. The advent of new high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with bioinformatics tools revealed the presence of these molecules in the transcriptome of a wide range of organisms. In animals, circRNAs can modulate gene expression and act as sponges of miRNAs to inhibit their activity. It has been demonstrated that they have the potential to be diagnostic biomarkers as their expression is closely associated to human diseases, such as Alzheimer and cancer. However, in plants their function remains elusive. Recently, the role of the circRNAs in plant stress responses has been studied. During the infection of Pseudomonas syringae in kiwifruit plants, 584 circRNAs were differentially expressed in leaf samples, and a group of them could be further associated with the stage of infection. Under phosphate deficiency conditions, 27 rice circRNAs were reported to be differentially expressed. In tomato, 163 circRNAs demonstrated chilling-responsive expression, with 102 containing miRNA-binding sites and are predicted to act as miRNA sponges. Additionally, Arabidopsis seedlings presented 1583 heat-specific circRNAs, and it was also reported that heat stress could increase the quantity, length, and alternative circularization events of circRNAs. Finally, wheat seedlings under dehydration stress had 62 circRNAs differentially expressed, with 6 being predicted as miRNA sponges. Although the role of plant circRNAs during the biotic and abiotic stresses is still poorly characterised, these molecules have the potential to expand the number of targets and tools in the biotechnology field.

Temperature leads to annual changes of plant community composition in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

In most grassland ecosystems, the effects of mean temperature increase on plant communities have been investigated; however, the effects of climate fluctuations on local plant community metrics are much less well understood. We conducted a nine-year survey in alpine meadow and alpine steppe to investigate the effects of inter-annual temperature and precipitation variation on plant community composition, species richness, and species diversity on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. We unexpectedly found that annual variability of growing season temperature, and not precipitation, is a driver of plant composition and species diversity in both habitats. Generally, increasing temperature had a negative effect on species diversity in meadow (r2 = 0.94) and steppe (r2 = 0.95). In the meadow habitat, the proportion of grass decreased with increasing temperature and ultimately had positive impacts on the proportion of sedges. In steppe habitat, legumes increased and forbs decreased with the increase of growing season temperature; both legumes and forbs negatively affected proportion of grass and resulted in grass remaining stable under temperature change. Our results provide evidence that responses of functional group composition and species richness to temporal change of temperature are very different from those responses to mean temperature increase on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. In our results, temperature is a main regulator for annual variation of functional group composition and species richness, while soil water content is a dominant regulator for community responses in other experimental warming studies.

Environmental and hydroclimatic factors influencing Vibrio populations in the estuarine zone of the Bengal delta.

The objective of this study was to determine environmental parameters driving Vibrio populations in the estuarine zone of the Bengal delta. Spatio-temporal data were collected at river estuary, mangrove, beach, pond, and canal sites. Effects of salinity, tidal amplitude, and a cyclone and tsunami were included in the study. Vibrio population shifts were found to be correlated with tide-driven salinity and suspended particulate matter (SPM). Increased abundance of Vibrio spp. in surface water was observed after a cyclone, attributed to re-suspension of benthic particulate organic carbon (POC), and increased availability of chitin and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Approximately a two log10 increase in the (p < 0.05) number of Vibrio spp. was observed in < 20 µm particulates, compared with microphytoplankton (20-60 µm) and zooplankton > 60 µm fractions. Benthic and suspended sediment comprised a major reservoir of Vibrio spp. Results of microcosm experiments showed enhanced growth of vibrios was related to concentration of organic matter in SPM. It is concluded that SPM, POC, chitin, and salinity significantly influence abundance and distribution of vibrios in the Bengal delta estuarine zone.

Stratospheric water vapor feedback.

We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry-climate model to be +0.3 W/(m(2)⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process.

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. METHODS: Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. RESULTS: During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season.