[Identification of individuals with high coronary risk in the Italian population: indications of the Epidemiologic Cardiovascular Observatory]. / L'identificazione degli individui ad elevato rischio coronarico nella popolazione italiana: indicazioni dall'Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare.

BACKGROUND: The absolute global coronary risk has recently been introduced as an indicator of the incidence predicted by the main risk factors. It offers numerous options for the treatment of individuals at high risk. The identification of the absolute global coronary risk is produced through the application of functions obtained by longitudinal studies; their adequacy depends on the characteristics of the population from which they were estimated. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of the application of the absolute global coronary risk evaluation using the chart of risk proposed to the Italian physicians and to compare it with the results obtained from the application of other risk functions. METHODS: The database of the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare (OEC), consisting of men and women aged 35-74 years, has been considered as being representative of the Italian population. The individual risk has been computed using the functions and coefficients from the Framingham study, the PROCAM study and the Seven Countries Study-Italy. The prevalence of high risk factors has been estimated on the basis of the recommendations on coronary prevention of the Task Force of the European Societies. RESULTS: The prevalence of high risk factors estimated by the Framingham function is 23.7% among men and 3.8% among women aged 35-74 years. In men aged 35-64 years, this estimated prevalence decreases from 14.2 to 8.7% when the Framingham function is adjusted using the mean value of the risk factors of the OEC, to 5.2% when the PROCAM function is applied, and to 1.1% when the function of the Seven Countries Study-Italy is employed. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the risk function suggested to the Italian physicians implies that more than 2,700,000 men and more than 500,000 women aged 35-74 years are potential candidates for treatment with lipid-lowering drugs. The comparison between the use of different functions in the OEC sample produces high numerical differences. The over-evaluation of the individual at high risk implies significant human and social costs. It is therefore essential to determine risk functions and coefficients derived from recent Italian studies including all age groups, both sexes and taking into account the different geographic characteristics of our country.