Temporal dynamics of rabies in a wildlife host and the risk of cross-species transmission.
Epidemiol Infect
; 132(3): 515-24, 2004 Jun.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-15188720
ABSTRACT
An epidemiological model was developed for rabies, linking the risk of disease in a secondary species (cats) to the temporal dynamics of disease in a wildlife reservoir (raccoons). Data were obtained from cats, raccoons, and skunks tested for rabies in the northeastern United States during 1992-2000. An epizootic algorithm defined a time-series of successive intervals of epizootic and inter-epizootic raccoon rabies. The odds of diagnosing a rabid cat during the first epizootic of raccoon rabies was 12 times greater than for the period prior to epizootic emergence. After the first raccoon epizootic, the risk for cat rabies remained elevated at levels six- to seven-fold above baseline. Increased monthly counts of rabid raccoons and skunks and decreasing human population density increased the probability of cat rabies in most models. Forecasting of the public health and veterinary burden of rabies and assessing the economics of control programmes, requires linking outcomes to dynamic, but predictable, changes in the temporal evolution of rabies epizootics.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Rabia
/
Reservorios de Enfermedades
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Enfermedades de los Gatos
/
Vigilancia de la Población
/
Densidad de Población
/
Costo de Enfermedad
/
Animales Salvajes
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Año:
2004
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos