Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 107(34): 15135-9, 2010 Aug 24.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20696913
ABSTRACT
Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Clima
/
Malaria
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
/
Female
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Año:
2010
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos