A nomogram predicting re-operation due to secondary hemorrhage after monopolar transurethral resection of prostate.

ABSTRACT

We aim to develop a nomogram to predict re-operation due to secondary hemorrhage after Monopolar transurethral resection of the prostate (M-TURP). We identified patients undergoing M-TURP at Peking University First Hospital from 2000 to 2013. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to predict the occurrence re-operation due to secondary hemorrhage. The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and internal validation was performed via bootstrap resampling. Of the 1901 patients who underwent M-TURP during the study period, 9.1% (173 patients) experienced hemorrhage after M-TURP, and they had a 22.0% re-operation rate (38 patients). Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)-related complications (odds ratio, 0.386; 95% CI, 0.177-0.841), percent of resected prostate (OR, 0.156; 95% CI, 0.023-1.060) and suprapubic cystostomy (OR, 0.298; 95% CI, 0.101-0.881) were independently associated with re-operation. The nomogram accurately predicted re-operation (area under the ROC curve 0.718). The negative predictive value was 88.0%, while the positive predictive value was 47.9%. Re-operation due to secondary hemorrhage after M-TURP was associated with no BPH-related complications, lower percent of resected prostate and no suprapubic cystostomy and was accurately predicted with using the nomogram.