Cutaneous nevi and risk of melanoma death in women and men: A prospective study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: It was unclear whether an increased number of common nevi (moles) predicts melanoma death. OBJECTIVE: We prospectively examined the association between number of common nevi and risk of melanoma death. METHODS: Our study used data from the Nurses' Health Study (n = 77,288 women) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (n = 32,455 men). In 1986, participants were asked about the number of moles they had with a ≥3-mm diameter on the upper extremity, and we stratified their answers into 3 categories (none, 1-2, or ≥3) on the basis of data distribution. RESULTS: During follow-up (1986-2012), 2452 melanoma cases were pathologically confirmed; among these, we identified 196 deaths due to melanoma. Increased number of nevi was associated with melanoma death; the hazard ratio (HR) for ≥3 nevi compared with no nevi was 2.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50-4.12) for women and 3.97 (95% CI 2.54-6.22) for men. Among melanoma cases, increased number of nevi was associated with melanoma death in men (≥3 nevi, HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.17-3.05) but not in women. Similarly, the number of nevi was positively associated with Breslow thickness in men only (Ptrend = .01). LIMITATIONS: This is an epidemiologic study without examination into mechanisms. CONCLUSION: Increased number of cutaneous nevi was significantly associated with melanoma death. High nevus count might serve as an independent prognostic factor to predict the risk of melanoma death particularly among male melanoma patients.