Climate change may induce connectivity loss and mountaintop extinction in Central American forests.
Commun Biol
; 4(1): 869, 2021 07 15.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34267317
ABSTRACT
The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. However, climate change is expected to affect the species composition of forest ecosystems, lead to forest type transitions and trigger irrecoverable losses of habitat and biodiversity. Here, we investigate potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of main plant functional types (PFTs) across Central America. Using a large database of occurrence records and physiological data, we classify tree species into trait-based groups and project their suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) with an ensemble of state-of-the-art correlative modelling methods. Our results forecast transitions from wet towards generalist or dry forest PFTs for large parts of the study region. Moreover, suitable area for wet-adapted PFTs is projected to latitudinally diverge and lose connectivity, while expected upslope shifts of montane species point to high risks of mountaintop extinction. These findings underline the urgent need to safeguard the connectivity of habitats through biological corridors and extend protected areas in the identified transition hotspots.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Plantas
/
Árboles
/
Cambio Climático
/
Agricultura Forestal
/
Ecosistema
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America central
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Commun Biol
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Alemania