A novel prognostic model: which group of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Background: This study aimed to establish a reliable model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and identifying the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant chemotherapy after esophagectomy. Methods: This retrospective study included 819 ESCC patients who underwent esophagectomy as the training cohort. We constructed a prognostic model named GTLN2. Both internal and external validation tests were performed. Potential beneficiaries were defined as ESCC patients who obtained a significantly longer OS after adjuvant chemotherapy. Propensity score matching (PSM) was utilized in the subgroup analysis to screen ESCC beneficiaries of adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: We enrolled a total of 819 cT1b-3 patients in the training cohort. Multiple prognostic factors were associated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Using uni-/multivariate analysis, histological grade (G), tumor invasion depth (T), regional lymph node metastasis (N), and the number of cleared lymph nodes (NCLNs) were identified as independent prognostic factors. Then, we developed the GTLN2 model based on these predictors and validated it using internal calculations [the 1-, 3- and 5-year area under the curves (AUCs) were 0.692, 0.685 and 0.680, respectively; P<0.001] and external cohorts (the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs were 0.651, 0.619 and 0.650, respectively; P<0.001). ESCC patients were categorized into high- and low-risk groups based on their assigned risk scores. After 1:1 patient pairing was performed by PSM in the high-risk group, better OS was noted in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (P=0.024). Conclusions: Differentiating high- and low-risk patient groups via a novel mathematical prediction model allows physicians to identify patients in need of adjuvant chemotherapy accurately.