Land-planning management based on multiple ecosystem services and simulation in tropical forests.

Forest losses can lead to severe damage to ecosystem services (ESs), especially in the tropics. Tropical forests are widespread in southwestern China, and they experience continual effects of human activities (e.g., rubber boom). However, forest simulations of land planning have not yet been systematically conducted. Based on a future land-use simulation model, here, the spatio-temporal characteristics of four ES (i.e., soil retention, water yield, carbon fixation, and habitat quality) were examined, and three scenarios (i.e., natural development, rubber development, and ecological protection) were designed and evaluated during 2000 for Xishuangbanna (XSBN), southwestern China. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average values of the ESs declined by 449.1 t for soil retention, 13.4 mm for water yield, 0.1 for habitat quality, and 0.1 kg C/m2 for carbon fixation; (2) the four ESs, with the exception of water yield, had synergistic relationships, and trade-off appeared on the margins of these synergistic relationships; (3) compared with the scenarios of natural development and rubber development, the environmental protection scenario was found to have high efficiency for protecting nature reserves and reducing fragmentation; and (4) the intensity of land-use change will accelerate the decrease of ESs, and it is essential for nature reserves and areas of northern XSBN to improve their level of environmental protection. This work not only further enriches the ES research from the ecological environment and land-planning points of view, but it also provides different planning perspectives for ES and forest scenarios. This is useful in methodical approaches to forest sustainability.