Laboratory-based and office-based Globorisk scores to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases among Iranians: results from the Fasa PERSIAN cohort.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Globorisk is a novel risk prediction model for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD). Globorisk is a country-specific risk prediction model that determines CVD risk for all countries. This model has two versions; laboratory-based and office-based. This study aimed to determine the agreement between laboratory-based and office-based models in a large sample of the general population. METHODS: Baseline data from the Fasa cohort study was used for the current study. In total, 6810 participants ≥ 40 years without any history of cardiovascular disease or stroke were included in the study. To determine the laboratory-based risk model, factors include age, sex, current smoking status, history of diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and total cholesterol. To estimate the office-based risk model, factors were age, sex, current smoking status, SBP, and body mass index (BMI). Kappa statistics was used to distinguish the agreement between grouped scores in these two models. Additionally, correlation coefficients and scatter plots were used to determine the linear correlation between the two models. RESULTS: In this study 46.53% of the participants were men. The mean age (SD) of participants was 51.08 (7.88) years. Agreements between the two models were moderate and substantial in all women and all men, respectively. The agreement between the two CVD risk groups was 90.15% (kappa = 0.717) in all men, 92.94% (kappa = 0.571) among men aged < 60 years and 77.60% (kappa = 0.645) in men aged ≥ 60 years. The agreement between the two CVD risk groups was 86.68% (kappa = 0.572) among all women, 93.96% (kappa = 0.274) among women aged < 60 years and 62.46% (kappa = 0.422) among women aged ≥ 60 years. A very strong positive correlation (r = 0.94) was found between the two risk scores in all men, and it was similar among men aged < 60 years (r = 0.84) and men aged > 60 years (r = 0.94). Among all women, there was a very strong positive correlation (r = 0.87), and the strong positive correlation remained among < 60 years old (r = 0.76) and women > 60 years old (r = 0.76). CONCLUSION: The Globorisk office-based model which is easier to use as it does not require blood testing can determine the risk groups in this population. The Globorisk office-based model may be used for CVD risk screening in low-middle income countries where resources are limited.