Modelling benzo(a)pyrene concentrations for different meteorological conditions - Analysis of lung cancer cases and associated economic costs.

Air pollution originating from the household presents a significant burden to public health, especially during the wintertime in countries, such as Poland, where coal substantially contributes to the energy market. One of the most hazardous components of particulate matter is benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). This study focusses on the impact of different meteorological conditions on BaP concentrations in Poland and associated impacts on human health and economic burdens. For this study, we used the EMEP MSC-W atmospheric chemistry transport model with meteorological data from the Weather Research and Forecasting model to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of BaP over Central Europe. The model setup has two nested domains, with the inner domain at 4 km × 4 km over Poland, which is a hotspot for BaP concentrations. The outer domain covers countries surrounding Poland in coarser resolution (12 × 812 km), to ensure that transboundary pollution is properly characterized in the modelling. We investigated the sensitivity to variability in winter meteorological conditions on BaP levels and impacts using data from 3 years: 1) 2018, which represents average meteorological conditions during the winter season (BASE run), 2) 2010 with a cold winter (COLD), and 3) 2020 with a warm winter (WARM). The ALPHA-RiskPoll model was used to analyze the lung cancer cases and associated economic costs. The results show that the majority of Poland exceeds the target level of benzo(a)pyrene (1 ng m-3) mainly due to high concentrations during the cold months. High concentrations of BaP have serious health implications and the number of lung cancers in Poland due to BaP exposure varies from 57 to 77 cases for the WARM and COLD years, respectively. It is reflected in the economic costs, which ranged from 136, through 174 to 185 million euros/year for the WARM, BASE and COLD model runs, respectively.