Of causes and symptoms: using monitoring data and expert knowledge to diagnose the causes of stream degradation.

ABSTRACT

Ecological status assessment under the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) often integrates the impact of multiple stressors into a single index value. This hampers the identification of individual stressors being responsible for status deterioration. As a consequence, management measures are often disentangled from assessment results. To close this gap and to support river basin managers in the diagnosis of stressors, we linked numerous macroinvertebrate assessment metrics and one diatom index with potential causes of ecological deterioration through Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were informed by WFD monitoring data as well as regular consultation with experts and allow to estimate the probabilities of individual degradation causes based upon a selection of biological metrics. Macroinvertebrate metrics were shown to be stronger linked to hydromorphological conditions and land use than to water quality-related parameters (e.g., thermal and nutrient pollution). The modeled probabilities also allow to order the potential causes of degradation hierarchically. The comparison of assessment metrics showed that compositional and trait-based community metrics performed equally well in the diagnosis. The testing of the BBNs by experts resulted in an agreement between model output and expert opinion of 17-92% for individual stressors. Overall, the expert-based validation confirmed a good diagnostic potential of the BBNs; on average 80% of the diagnosed causes were in agreement with expert judgement. We conclude that diagnostic BBNs can assist the identification of causes of stream and river degradation and thereby inform the derivation of appropriate management decisions.