Predicting future stars: Probability and performance corridors for elite swimmers.
J Sci Med Sport
; 27(2): 113-118, 2024 Feb.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37968181
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To evaluate the new age groups of the World Junior Championships in swimming from a scientific perspective, establish benchmarks and performance corridors that predict success at peak performance age and compare performance corridors between men and women and short-, middle-, and long-distance freestyle races.DESIGN:
Longitudinal big data analysis.METHODS:
In total, 347,186 annual best times of male (nâ¯=â¯3360, 561⯱â¯177 Swimming Points) and female freestyle swimmers (nâ¯=â¯2570, 553⯱â¯183 Swimming Points) were collected across all race distances at peak performance age and retrospectively analyzed throughout adolescence. Cumulative Poisson distribution was used to calculate probabilities of becoming world-class finalist, international-class, or national-class swimmer for each age group. Performance corridors were expressed relative to the World Record and compared between performance levels, sex, race distances, and age groups with a 2-way analysis of variance.RESULTS:
Females are required to swim faster relative to the World Record at a younger age and show earlier performance plateaus than males at national and international levels. Additionally, world-class long-distance finalists show higher Swimming Points earlier in their career compared to short-distance swimmers. This effect is more distinctive in females than males.CONCLUSIONS:
Based on the sex-specific performance corridors and developments, the newly aligned age groups for the World Junior Championships are questionable regarding long-term athlete development. Based on race times from 131 nations, the present benchmarks provide valid international normative values to predict success chances at peak performance age and guide young swimmers along their talent pathway.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
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Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Rendimiento Atlético
Límite:
Adolescent
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Female
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Humans
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Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Sci Med Sport
Asunto de la revista:
MEDICINA ESPORTIVA
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article