Population measles seroprevalence: Heterogeneity by birth-year cohort.

ABSTRACT

Objective: This work sought to estimate population measles seroprevalence and heterogeneity in the antibody concentration distribution that could be explained by the birth-year cohort according to the opportunity of viral and vaccine exposure, applied to data from Medellín, Colombia. Methods: Prevalence of IgG antibodies was analyzed for measles based on a population study with a random sample of 2098 individuals from 6 to 64 years of age. Finite mixture models were used to estimate global seroprevalence and that of three birth-year cohorts (I born up to 1982; II 1983-1994; III born since 1995). Multiple linear regression permitted adjusting the concentration of antibodies by cohort, zone, and sex. Results: Globally, seronegativity was 6.5% (95% CI 4.9- 8.6), seropositivity of 78.4% (95% CI 75.1-81.4), and equivocal of 15.1% (95% CI 12.5-18.1). Two components were found with skewed normal distribution, which reclassified those equivocal as seropositive. Differences were observed by cohort in the geometric mean of antibodies [Cohort I 1704.6; II 562.2; III 802.1 milli-international units per milliliter (mIU/mL] and seronegativity (Cohort I 4%; II13.3%; III 8.9%). Antibody concentration increased by 1.26 mIU/mL in residents in the rural area, while diminishing in individuals from cohort II (by 3.02 mIU/mL) and cohort III (by 2.14 mIU/mL). Conclusion: The younger cohorts (II and III) had a lower antibody concentration (higher seronegativity), indicating the need to monitor periodically seroprevalence and an eventual reestablishment of the transmission in these groups with higher risk of infection.