Season of death, pathogen persistence and wildlife behaviour alter number of anthrax secondary infections from environmental reservoirs.
Proc Biol Sci
; 291(2016): 20232568, 2024 Feb 14.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38320613
ABSTRACT
An important part of infectious disease management is predicting factors that influence disease outbreaks, such as R, the number of secondary infections arising from an infected individual. Estimating R is particularly challenging for environmentally transmitted pathogens given time lags between cases and subsequent infections. Here, we calculated R for Bacillus anthracis infections arising from anthrax carcass sites in Etosha National Park, Namibia. Combining host behavioural data, pathogen concentrations and simulation models, we show that R is spatially and temporally variable, driven by spore concentrations at death, host visitation rates and early preference for foraging at infectious sites. While spores were detected up to a decade after death, most secondary infections occurred within 2 years. Transmission simulations under scenarios combining site infectiousness and host exposure risk under different environmental conditions led to dramatically different outbreak dynamics, from pathogen extinction (R < 1) to explosive outbreaks (R > 10). These transmission heterogeneities may explain variation in anthrax outbreak dynamics observed globally, and more generally, the critical importance of environmental variation underlying host-pathogen interactions. Notably, our approach allowed us to estimate the lethal dose of a highly virulent pathogen non-invasively from observational studies and epidemiological data, useful when experiments on wildlife are undesirable or impractical.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Bacillus anthracis
/
Coinfección
/
Carbunco
Tipo de estudio:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Biol Sci
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos