Updated Parameters for Listeria monocytogenes Dose-Response Model Considering Pathogen Virulence and Age and Sex of Consumer.

ABSTRACT

Better knowledge regarding the Listeria monocytogenes dose-response (DR) model is needed to refine the assessment of the risk of foodborne listeriosis. In 2018, the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) derived a lognormal Poisson DR model for 14 different age-sex sub-groups, marginally to strain virulence. In the present study, new sets of parameters are developed by integrating the EFSA model for these sub-groups together with three classes of strain virulence characteristics ("less virulent", "virulent", and "more virulent"). Considering classes of virulence leads to estimated relative risks (RRs) of listeriosis following the ingestion of 1000 bacteria of "less virulent" vs. "more virulent" strains ranging from 21.6 to 24.1, depending on the sub-group. These relatively low RRs when compared with RRs linked to comorbidities described in the literature suggest that the influence of comorbidity on the occurrence of invasive listeriosis for a given exposure is much more important than the influence of the virulence of the strains. The updated model parameters allow better prediction of the risk of invasive listeriosis across a population of interest, provided the necessary data on population demographics and the proportional contribution of strain virulence classes in food products of interest are available. An R package is made available to facilitate the use of these dose-response models.