[Replication indexes of the human immunodeficiency virus: predictive value of viral culture and blood antigens]. / Indices de replicación del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana: valor predictivo de los cultivos virales y de la antigenemia.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To investigate the relation between markers of load and replication of the HIV [viral culture in plasma and in mononuclear cells of peripheral blood (MCPB) and antigen p24 (p24Ag) with the number of CD4+ cells and the prognosis of the patients. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed in 188 patients who were analyzed and followed over a mean period of 431 days. The criteria of clinical progression (AIDS related complex, and new opportunistic infections), immunologic progression (CD4+ < 0.1 and < 0.05 + 10(9)/l) and death. Cocultures of HIV in free plasma and in MCPB were performed with the detection of complete AgHIV in the supernatant of the culture being used for analysis. Circulating p24Ag was determined by an ELISA technique without previous dissociation of the immunocomplexes. RESULTS: HIV cultures in plasma, in MCPB and p24Ag were positive in 27, 48 and 33% of the patients, respectively. The sensitivity of the indexes increased in agreement with the clinical progression of the patients and was inversely proportional to the depletion of the CD4+ lymphocytes (79% of the patients with CD4+ lymphocytes < 0.05 x 10(9)/l presented positive HIV culture in plasma). Viremia in plasma and to a lesser measure p24Ag correlated with variables recognized as bad prognosis and were found to be predictive of unfavorable evolution. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that pertenence to a symptomatic group and the presentation of a number of CD4+ lymphocytes of less than 0.2 x 10(9)/l were independent factors associated to the positivity of the viral culture in plasma and p24Ag. The culture positive in MCPB was principally related with the volume of blood analyzed. The risk of death was 6.38 fold greater in the presence of a positive plasma culture and 2.02 fold greater in the presence of positive p24Ag. In contrast, the unquantified positive HIV culture in MCPB showed no statistical significance in relation with patient survival. CONCLUSIONS: Positive HIV culture in plasma was the greatest prognostic index in patients with a number of CD4+ lymphocytes less than 0.2 x 10(9)/l. Unquantified cell culture had no predictive significance. To establish the prognosis of patients, the indexes of viral replication should not be used in isolation.