An evaluation of sexual behaviour change using statistical and cognitive models. The AIDS Community Demonstration Projects.

We evaluate sexual behaviour change among homosexual men enrolled in the cohorts in four AIDS Community Demonstration Projects. Behaviour change is classified following the stages of behaviour change model and described using a Markov model. Predictors of behaviour change are identified and evaluated using logit models for correlated data. Sexual behaviour change within the cohort could be modelled as a first-order Markov process. In addition, predictors suggested by models of health behaviour were correlated with particular patterns of sexual behaviour change. Our evaluation revealed a variety of patterns of sexual behaviour change in the cohorts and suggests multi-faceted interventions for promotion of behaviour change.