Variations in common diseases, hospital admissions, and deaths in middle-aged adults in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches. METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years. FINDINGS: This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5-10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs. INTERPRETATION: Among adults aged 35-70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care. (AU)

The household economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 18 countries

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries. METHODS: Using data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China. RESULTS: The prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs. (AU)

Tobacco control environment: cross-sectional survey of policy implementation, social unacceptability, knowledge of tobacco health harms and relationship to quit ratio in 17 low-income, middle-income and high-income countries

OBJECTIVES: This study examines in a cross-sectional study 'the tobacco control environment' including tobacco policy implementation and its association with quit ratio.SETTING:545 communities from 17 high-income, upper-middle, low-middle and low-income countries (HIC, UMIC, LMIC, LIC) involved in the Environmental Profile of a Community's Health (EPOCH) study from 2009 to 2014. PARTICIPANTS: Community audits and surveys of adults (35-70 years, n=12 953).PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Summary scores of tobacco policy implementation (cost and availability of cigarettes, tobacco advertising, antismoking signage), social unacceptability and knowledge were associated with quit ratios (former vs ever smokers) using multilevel logistic regression models. RESULTS: Average tobacco control policy score was greater in communities from HIC. Overall 56.1% (306/545) of communities had >2 outlets selling cigarettes and in 28.6% (154/539) there was access to cheap cigarettes (80% of participants disapproved youth smoking (95.7% HIC, 57.6% UMIC, 76.3% LMIC and 58.9% LIC). The average knowledge score was >80% in 48.4% of communities (94.6% HIC, 53.6% UMIC, 31.8% LMIC and 35.1% LIC). Summary scores of policy implementation, social unacceptability and knowledge were positively and significantly associated with quit ratio and the associations varied by gender, for example, communities in the highest quintile of the combined scores had 5.0 times the quit ratio in men (Odds ratio (OR) 5·0, 95% CI 3.4 to 7.4) and 4.1 times the quit ratio in women (OR 4.1, 95% CI 2.4 to 7.1)...

The environmental profile of a community's health: a cross-sectional study on tobacco marketing in 16 countries

To examine and compare tobacco marketing in 16 countries while the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control requires parties to implement a comprehensive ban on such marketing.METHODS:Between 2009 and 2012, a kilometre-long walk was completed by trained investigators in 462 communities across 16 countries to collect data on tobacco marketing. We interviewed community members about their exposure to traditional and non-traditional marketing in the previous six months. To examine differences in marketing between urban and rural communities and between high-, middle- and low-income countries, we used multilevel regression models controlling for potential confounders.FINDINGS:Compared with high-income countries, the number of tobacco advertisements observed was 81 times higher in low-income countries (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 80.98; 95% confidence interval, CI: 4.15-1578.42) and the number of tobacco outlets was 2.5 times higher in both low- and lower-middle-income countries (IRR: 2.58; 95% CI: 1.17-5.67 and IRR: 2.52; CI: 1.23-5.17, respectively). Of the 11,842 interviewees, 1184 (10%) reported seeing at least five types of tobacco marketing. Self-reported exposure to at least one type of traditional marketing was 10 times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries (odds ratio, OR: 9.77; 95% CI: 1.24-76.77). For almost all measures, marketing exposure was significantly lower in the rural communities than in the urban communities.CONCLUSION:Despite global legislation to limit tobacco marketing, it appears ubiquitous. The frequency and type of tobacco marketing varies on the national level by income group and by community type, appearing to be greatest in low-income countries and urban communities.

Alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease, cancer, injury, admission to hospital, and mortality: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND:Alcohol consumption is proposed to be the third most important modifiable risk factor for death and disability. However, alcohol consumption has been associated with both benefits and harms, and previous studies were mostly done in high-income countries. We investigated associations between alcohol consumption and outcomes in a prospective cohort of countries at different economic levels in five continents.METHODS:We included information from 12 countries participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to study associations with mortality (n=2723), cardiovascular disease (n=2742), myocardial infarction (n=979), stroke (n=817), alcohol-related cancer (n=764), injury (n=824), admission to hospital (n=8786), and for a composite of these outcomes (n=11,963).FINDINGS:We included 114,970 adults, of whom 12,904 (11%) were from high-income countries (HICs), 24,408 (21%) were from upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), 48,845 (43%) were from lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), and 28,813 (25%) were from low-income countries (LICs). Median follow-up was 4.3 years (IQR 3.0-6.0). Current drinking was reported by 36,030 (31%) individuals, and was associated with reduced myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76 [95% CI 0.63-0.93]), but increased alcohol-related cancers (HR 1.51 [1.22-1.89]) and injury (HR 1.29 [1.04-1.61]). High intake was associated with increased mortality (HR 1.31 [1.04-1.66]). Compared with never drinkers, we identified significantly reduced hazards for the composite outcome for current drinkers in HICs and UMICs (HR 0.84 [0.77-0.92]), but not in LMICs and LICs, for which we identified no reductions in this outcome (HR 1.07 [0.95-1.21]; pinteraction<0.0001)...

Prognostic value of grip strength: findings from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study

BACKGROUND:Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries.METHODS:The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (IQR 2.9-5.1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally.FINDINGS:Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142,861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139,691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (IQR 2.9-5.1), 3379 (2%) of 139,691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength...

Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-,middle-, and high-income countries

BACKGROUNDMore than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur inlow-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown.METHODSWe enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries(3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessedtheir cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score forquantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higherscores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incidentcardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years.RESULTSThe mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediatein middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001).However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascularcauses, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-incomecountries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 personyearsvs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Casefatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3%in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P = 0.01). Urban communitieshad a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower ratesof cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) andcase fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medicationsand revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-incomecountries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001).CONCLUSIONSAlthough the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates ofmajor cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-incomecountries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in highincome...

Glucose levels are associated with cardiovascular disease and death in an international cohort of normal glycaemic and dysglycaemic men and women: the EpiDREAM cohort study

AIMS: In an international prospective cohort study we assessed the relationship between glucose levels and incident cardiovascular events and death.METHODS AND RESULTS: 18,990 men and women were screened for entry into the DREAM clinical trial from 21 different countries. All had clinical and biochemical information collected at baseline, including an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), and were prospectively followed over a median (IQR) of 3.5 (3.0-4.0) years for incident cardiovascular (CV) events including coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) requiring hospitalization, and death. After OGTT screening, 8000 subjects were classified as normoglycaemic, 8427 had impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and 2563 subjects had newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). There were incident events in 491 individuals: 282 CAD, 54 strokes, 19 CHF, and 164 died. The annualized CV or death event rate was 0.79/100 person-years in the overall cohort, 0.51/100 person-years in normoglycaemics, 0.92/100 person-years among subjects with IFG and/or IGT at baseline, and 1.27/100 person-years among those with DM (p for trend <0.0001). Among all subjects, a 1 mmol/l increase in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) or a 2.52 mmol/l increase in the 2-h post-OGTT glucose was associated with a hazard ratio increase in the risk of CV events or death of 1.17 (95% CI 1.13-1.22).CONCLUSIONS: In this large multiethnic cohort, the risk of CV events or death increased progressively among individuals who were normoglycaemic, IFG or IGT, and newly diagnosed diabetics. A 1 mmol/l increase in FPG was associated with a 17% increase in the risk of future CV events or death. Therapeutic or behavioural interventions designed to either prevent glucose levels from rising, or lower glucose among individuals with dysglycaemia should be evaluated.

Long-term effect of rosiglitazone and/or ramipril on the incidence of diabetes: DREAM On (Diabetes Reduction Assessment with Ramipril and Rosiglitazone Medication Ongoing Follow-up) Investigators

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The Diabetes Reduction Assessment with Ramipril and Rosiglitazone Medication (DREAM) trial reported that 3 years of therapy with rosiglitazone reduced the primary outcome of diabetes or death by 60%. Here we investigated whether an effect on diabetes prevention persists more than 1.5 years after therapy has been discontinued. METHODS: The DREAM On passive follow-up study was conducted at 49 of the 191 DREAM sites. Consenting participants were invited to have a repeat OGTT 1-2 years after active therapy ended. A diagnosis of diabetes at that time was based on either a fasting or 2 h plasma glucose level of ¡Ý7.0 mmol/l or ¡Ý11.1 mmol/l, respectively, or a confirmed diagnosis by a non-study physician. Regression to normoglycaemia was defined as a fasting and 2 h plasma glucose level of <6.1 mmol/l and <7.8 mmol/l, respectively. RESULTS: After a median of 1.6 years after the end of the trial and 4.3 years after randomisation, rosiglitazone participants had a 39% lower incidence of the primary outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 0.61, 95% CI 0.53-0.70; p < 0.0001) and 17% more regression to normoglycaemia (95% CI 1.01-1.34; p = 0.034). When the analysis was restricted to the passive follow-up period, a similar incidence of both the primary outcome and regression was observed in people from both treatment groups (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.81-1.24 and HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.97-1.32, respectively). Similar effects were noted when new diabetes was analysed separately from death. Ramipril did not have any significant long-term effect. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Time-limited exposure to rosiglitazone reduces the longer term incidence of diabetes by delaying but not reversing the underlying disease process.