Modeling combination therapies in patient cohorts and cell cultures using correlated drug action.

Characterizing the effect of combination therapies is vital for treating diseases like cancer. We introduce correlated drug action (CDA), a baseline model for the study of drug combinations in both cell cultures and patient populations, which assumes that the efficacy of drugs in a combination may be correlated. We apply temporal CDA (tCDA) to clinical trial data, and demonstrate the utility of this approach in identifying possible synergistic combinations and others that can be explained in terms of monotherapies. Using MCF7 cell line data, we assess combinations with dose CDA (dCDA), a model that generalizes other proposed models (e.g., Bliss response-additivity, the dose equivalence principle), and introduce Excess over CDA (EOCDA), a new metric for identifying possible synergistic combinations in cell culture.

External Validation of an Ensemble Model for Automated Mammography Interpretation by Artificial Intelligence.

Importance: With a shortfall in fellowship-trained breast radiologists, mammography screening programs are looking toward artificial intelligence (AI) to increase efficiency and diagnostic accuracy. External validation studies provide an initial assessment of how promising AI algorithms perform in different practice settings. Objective: To externally validate an ensemble deep-learning model using data from a high-volume, distributed screening program of an academic health system with a diverse patient population. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic study, an ensemble learning method, which reweights outputs of the 11 highest-performing individual AI models from the Digital Mammography Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) Mammography Challenge, was used to predict the cancer status of an individual using a standard set of screening mammography images. This study was conducted using retrospective patient data collected between 2010 and 2020 from women aged 40 years and older who underwent a routine breast screening examination and participated in the Athena Breast Health Network at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Main Outcomes and Measures: Performance of the challenge ensemble method (CEM) and the CEM combined with radiologist assessment (CEM+R) were compared with diagnosed ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive cancers within a year of the screening examination using performance metrics, such as sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: Evaluated on 37 317 examinations from 26 817 women (mean [SD] age, 58.4 [11.5] years), individual model AUROC estimates ranged from 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.79) to 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81-0.85). The CEM model achieved an AUROC of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.84-0.87) in the UCLA cohort, lower than the performance achieved in the Kaiser Permanente Washington (AUROC, 0.90) and Karolinska Institute (AUROC, 0.92) cohorts. The CEM+R model achieved a sensitivity (0.813 [95% CI, 0.781-0.843] vs 0.826 [95% CI, 0.795-0.856]; P = .20) and specificity (0.925 [95% CI, 0.916-0.934] vs 0.930 [95% CI, 0.929-0.932]; P = .18) similar to the radiologist performance. The CEM+R model had significantly lower sensitivity (0.596 [95% CI, 0.466-0.717] vs 0.850 [95% CI, 0.766-0.923]; P < .001) and specificity (0.803 [95% CI, 0.734-0.861] vs 0.945 [95% CI, 0.936-0.954]; P < .001) than the radiologist in women with a prior history of breast cancer and Hispanic women (0.894 [95% CI, 0.873-0.910] vs 0.926 [95% CI, 0.919-0.933]; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the high performance of an ensemble deep-learning model for automated screening mammography interpretation did not generalize to a more diverse screening cohort, suggesting that the model experienced underspecification. This study suggests the need for model transparency and fine-tuning of AI models for specific target populations prior to their clinical adoption.

Unannotated small RNA clusters associated with circulating extracellular vesicles detect early stage liver cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Surveillance tools for early cancer detection are suboptimal, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and biomarkers are urgently needed. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) have gained increasing scientific interest due to their involvement in tumour initiation and metastasis; however, most extracellular RNA (exRNA) blood-based biomarker studies are limited to annotated genomic regions. DESIGN: EVs were isolated with differential ultracentrifugation and integrated nanoscale deterministic lateral displacement arrays (nanoDLD) and quality assessed by electron microscopy, immunoblotting, nanoparticle tracking and deconvolution analysis. Genome-wide sequencing of the largely unexplored small exRNA landscape, including unannotated transcripts, identified and reproducibly quantified small RNA clusters (smRCs). Their key genomic features were delineated across biospecimens and EV isolation techniques in prostate cancer and HCC. Three independent exRNA cancer datasets with a total of 479 samples from 375 patients, including longitudinal samples, were used for this study. RESULTS: ExRNA smRCs were dominated by uncharacterised, unannotated small RNA with a consensus sequence of 20 nt. An unannotated 3-smRC signature was significantly overexpressed in plasma exRNA of patients with HCC (p<0.01, n=157). An independent validation in a phase 2 biomarker case-control study revealed 86% sensitivity and 91% specificity for the detection of early HCC from controls at risk (n=209) (area under the receiver operating curve (AUC): 0.87). The 3-smRC signature was independent of alpha-fetoprotein (p<0.0001) and a composite model yielded an increased AUC of 0.93. CONCLUSION: These findings directly lead to the prospect of a minimally invasive, blood-only, operator-independent clinical tool for HCC surveillance, thus highlighting the potential of unannotated smRCs for biomarker research in cancer.

Transcriptomic characterization of cancer-testis antigens identifies MAGEA3 as a driver of tumor progression in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Cancer testis antigens (CTAs) are an extensive gene family with a unique expression pattern restricted to germ cells, but aberrantly reactivated in cancer tissues. Studies indicate that the expression (or re-expression) of CTAs within the MAGE-A family is common in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no systematic characterization has yet been reported. The aim of this study is to perform a comprehensive profile of CTA de-regulation in HCC and experimentally evaluate the role of MAGEA3 as a driver of HCC progression. The transcriptomic analysis of 44 multi-regionally sampled HCCs from 12 patients identified high intra-tumor heterogeneity of CTAs. In addition, a subset of CTAs was significantly overexpressed in histologically poorly differentiated regions. Further analysis of CTAs in larger patient cohorts revealed high CTA expression related to worse overall survival and several other markers of poor prognosis. Functional analysis of MAGEA3 was performed in human HCC cell lines by gene silencing and in a genetic mouse model by overexpression of MAGEA3 in the liver. Knockdown of MAGEA3 decreased cell proliferation, colony formation and increased apoptosis. MAGEA3 overexpression was associated with more aggressive tumors in vivo. In conclusion MAGEA3 enhances tumor progression and should be considered as a novel therapeutic target in HCC.

A community challenge to evaluate RNA-seq, fusion detection, and isoform quantification methods for cancer discovery.

The accurate identification and quantitation of RNA isoforms present in the cancer transcriptome is key for analyses ranging from the inference of the impacts of somatic variants to pathway analysis to biomarker development and subtype discovery. The ICGC-TCGA DREAM Somatic Mutation Calling in RNA (SMC-RNA) challenge was a crowd-sourced effort to benchmark methods for RNA isoform quantification and fusion detection from bulk cancer RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data. It concluded in 2018 with a comparison of 77 fusion detection entries and 65 isoform quantification entries on 51 synthetic tumors and 32 cell lines with spiked-in fusion constructs. We report the entries used to build this benchmark, the leaderboard results, and the experimental features associated with the accurate prediction of RNA species. This challenge required submissions to be in the form of containerized workflows, meaning each of the entries described is easily reusable through CWL and Docker containers at https://github.com/SMC-RNA-challenge. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

The transcriptomic response of cells to a drug combination is more than the sum of the responses to the monotherapies.

Our ability to discover effective drug combinations is limited, in part by insufficient understanding of how the transcriptional response of two monotherapies results in that of their combination. We analyzed matched time course RNAseq profiling of cells treated with single drugs and their combinations and found that the transcriptional signature of the synergistic combination was unique relative to that of either constituent monotherapy. The sequential activation of transcription factors in time in the gene regulatory network was implicated. The nature of this transcriptional cascade suggests that drug synergy may ensue when the transcriptional responses elicited by two unrelated individual drugs are correlated. We used these results as the basis of a simple prediction algorithm attaining an AUROC of 0.77 in the prediction of synergistic drug combinations in an independent dataset.

Evaluation of Combined Artificial Intelligence and Radiologist Assessment to Interpret Screening Mammograms.

Importance: Mammography screening currently relies on subjective human interpretation. Artificial intelligence (AI) advances could be used to increase mammography screening accuracy by reducing missed cancers and false positives. Objective: To evaluate whether AI can overcome human mammography interpretation limitations with a rigorous, unbiased evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic accuracy study conducted between September 2016 and November 2017, an international, crowdsourced challenge was hosted to foster AI algorithm development focused on interpreting screening mammography. More than 1100 participants comprising 126 teams from 44 countries participated. Analysis began November 18, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measurements: Algorithms used images alone (challenge 1) or combined images, previous examinations (if available), and clinical and demographic risk factor data (challenge 2) and output a score that translated to cancer yes/no within 12 months. Algorithm accuracy for breast cancer detection was evaluated using area under the curve and algorithm specificity compared with radiologists' specificity with radiologists' sensitivity set at 85.9% (United States) and 83.9% (Sweden). An ensemble method aggregating top-performing AI algorithms and radiologists' recall assessment was developed and evaluated. Results: Overall, 144 231 screening mammograms from 85 580 US women (952 cancer positive ≤12 months from screening) were used for algorithm training and validation. A second independent validation cohort included 166 578 examinations from 68 008 Swedish women (780 cancer positive). The top-performing algorithm achieved an area under the curve of 0.858 (United States) and 0.903 (Sweden) and 66.2% (United States) and 81.2% (Sweden) specificity at the radiologists' sensitivity, lower than community-practice radiologists' specificity of 90.5% (United States) and 98.5% (Sweden). Combining top-performing algorithms and US radiologist assessments resulted in a higher area under the curve of 0.942 and achieved a significantly improved specificity (92.0%) at the same sensitivity. Conclusions and Relevance: While no single AI algorithm outperformed radiologists, an ensemble of AI algorithms combined with radiologist assessment in a single-reader screening environment improved overall accuracy. This study underscores the potential of using machine learning methods for enhancing mammography screening interpretation.

R/PY-SUMMA: An R/Python Package for Unsupervised Ensemble Learning for Binary Classification Problems in Bioinformatics.

The increasing availability of complex data in biology and medicine has promoted the use of machine learning in classification tasks to address important problems in translational and fundamental science. Two important obstacles, however, may limit the unraveling of the full potential of machine learning in these fields: the lack of generalization of the resulting models and the limited number of labeled data sets in some applications. To address these important problems, we developed an unsupervised ensemble algorithm called strategy for unsupervised multiple method aggregation (SUMMA). By virtue of being an ensemble method, SUMMA is more robust to generalization than the predictions it combines. By virtue of being unsupervised, SUMMA does not require labeled data. SUMMA receives as input predictions from a diversity of models and estimates their classification performance even when labeled data are unavailable. It then uses these performance estimates to combine these different predictions into an ensemble model. SUMMA can be applied to a variety of binary classification problems in bioinformatics including but not limited to gene network inference, cancer diagnostics, drug response prediction, somatic mutation, and differential expression calling. In this application note, we introduce the R/PY-SUMMA packages, available in R or Python, that implement the SUMMA algorithm.

Radiogenomics Consortium Genome-Wide Association Study Meta-Analysis of Late Toxicity After Prostate Cancer Radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: A total of 10%-20% of patients develop long-term toxicity following radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Identification of common genetic variants associated with susceptibility to radiotoxicity might improve risk prediction and inform functional mechanistic studies. METHODS: We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of six genome-wide association studies (n = 3871) in men of European ancestry who underwent radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Radiotoxicities (increased urinary frequency, decreased urinary stream, hematuria, rectal bleeding) were graded prospectively. We used grouped relative risk models to test associations with approximately 6 million genotyped or imputed variants (time to first grade 2 or higher toxicity event). Variants with two-sided Pmeta less than 5 × 10-8 were considered statistically significant. Bayesian false discovery probability provided an additional measure of confidence. Statistically significant variants were evaluated in three Japanese cohorts (n = 962). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Meta-analysis of the European ancestry cohorts identified three genomic signals: single nucleotide polymorphism rs17055178 with rectal bleeding (Pmeta = 6.2 × 10-10), rs10969913 with decreased urinary stream (Pmeta = 2.9 × 10-10), and rs11122573 with hematuria (Pmeta = 1.8 × 10-8). Fine-scale mapping of these three regions was used to identify another independent signal (rs147121532) associated with hematuria (Pconditional = 4.7 × 10-6). Credible causal variants at these four signals lie in gene-regulatory regions, some modulating expression of nearby genes. Previously identified variants showed consistent associations (rs17599026 with increased urinary frequency, rs7720298 with decreased urinary stream, rs1801516 with overall toxicity) in new cohorts. rs10969913 and rs17599026 had similar effects in the photon-treated Japanese cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study increases the understanding of the architecture of common genetic variants affecting radiotoxicity, points to novel radio-pathogenic mechanisms, and develops risk models for testing in clinical studies. Further multinational radiogenomics studies in larger cohorts are worthwhile.

Community assessment to advance computational prediction of cancer drug combinations in a pharmacogenomic screen.

The effectiveness of most cancer targeted therapies is short-lived. Tumors often develop resistance that might be overcome with drug combinations. However, the number of possible combinations is vast, necessitating data-driven approaches to find optimal patient-specific treatments. Here we report AstraZeneca's large drug combination dataset, consisting of 11,576 experiments from 910 combinations across 85 molecularly characterized cancer cell lines, and results of a DREAM Challenge to evaluate computational strategies for predicting synergistic drug pairs and biomarkers. 160 teams participated to provide a comprehensive methodological development and benchmarking. Winning methods incorporate prior knowledge of drug-target interactions. Synergy is predicted with an accuracy matching biological replicates for >60% of combinations. However, 20% of drug combinations are poorly predicted by all methods. Genomic rationale for synergy predictions are identified, including ADAM17 inhibitor antagonism when combined with PIK3CB/D inhibition contrasting to synergy when combined with other PI3K-pathway inhibitors in PIK3CA mutant cells.

Inferring Genome-Wide Interaction Networks Using the Phi-Mixing Coefficient, and Applications to Lung and Breast Cancer (Invited Paper).

Constructing gene interaction networks (GINs) from high-throughput gene expression data is an important and challenging problem in systems biology. Existing algorithms produce networks that either have undirected and unweighted edges, or else are constrained to contain no cycles, both of which are biologically unrealistic. In the present paper we propose a new algorithm, based on a concept from probability theory known as the ϕ-mixing coefficient, that produces networks whose edges are weighted and directed, and are permitted to contain cycles. Specifically, we inferred networks for two subtypes of lung cancer small cell (SCLC) and non-small cell (NSCLC) as well as normal lung tissue. Then we compared with the outcomes of siRNA screening of 19,000+ genes on 11 NSCLC cell lines, and found that the higher the degree of a gene in the inferred network, the more essential it is to the survival of a cell. We also analyzed data from a ChIP-Seq experiment to determine putative downstream targets of ASCL1. The SCLC network was enriched for ChIP-seq neighbors of this oncogenic transcription factor, but not in the NSCLC network. We also reverse-engineered whole-genome interaction networks for two distinct subtypes of breast cancer, namely Luminal-A and Basal (also known as triple negative).

Preference-Sensitive Management of Post-Mammography Decisions in Breast Cancer Diagnosis.

Decision models representing the clinical situations where treatment options entail a significant risk of morbidity or mortality should consider the variations in risk preferences of individuals. In this study, we develop a stochastic modeling framework that optimizes risk-sensitive diagnostic decisions after a mammography exam. For a given patient, our objective is to find the utility maximizing diagnostic decisions where we define the utility over quality-adjusted survival duration. We use real data from a private mammography database to numerically solve our model for various utility functions. Our choice of utility functions for the numerical analysis is driven by actual patient behavior encountered in clinical practice. We find that invasive diagnostic procedures such as biopsies are more aggressively used than what the optimal risk-neutral policy would suggest, implying a far-sighted (or equivalently risk-seeking) behavior. When risk preferences are incorporated into the clinical practice, policy makers should bear in mind that a welfare loss in terms of survival duration is inevitable as evidenced by our structural and empirical results.

Sparse feature selection for classification and prediction of metastasis in endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Metastasis via pelvic and/or para-aortic lymph nodes is a major risk factor for endometrial cancer. Lymph-node resection ameliorates risk but is associated with significant co-morbidities. Incidence in patients with stage I disease is 4-22% but no mechanism exists to accurately predict it. Therefore, national guidelines for primary staging surgery include pelvic and para-aortic lymph node dissection for all patients whose tumor exceeds 2cm in diameter. We sought to identify a robust molecular signature that can accurately classify risk of lymph node metastasis in endometrial cancer patients. 86 tumors matched for age and race, and evenly distributed between lymph node-positive and lymph node-negative cases, were selected as a training cohort. Genomic micro-RNA expression was profiled for each sample to serve as the predictive feature matrix. An independent set of 28 tumor samples was collected and similarly characterized to serve as a test cohort. RESULTS: A feature selection algorithm was designed for applications where the number of samples is far smaller than the number of measured features per sample. A predictive miRNA expression signature was developed using this algorithm, which was then used to predict the metastatic status of the independent test cohort. A weighted classifier, using 18 micro-RNAs, achieved 100% accuracy on the training cohort. When applied to the testing cohort, the classifier correctly predicted 90% of node-positive cases, and 80% of node-negative cases (FDR = 6.25%). CONCLUSION: Results indicate that the evaluation of the quantitative sparse-feature classifier proposed here in clinical trials may lead to significant improvement in the prediction of lymphatic metastases in endometrial cancer patients.