The value of genetic data from 665,460 individuals in managing iron deficiency anaemia and suitability to donate blood.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although the genetic determinants of haemoglobin and ferritin have been widely studied, those of the clinically and globally relevant iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) and deferral due to hypohaemoglobinemia (Hb-deferral) are unclear. In this investigation, we aimed to quantify the value of genetic information in predicting IDA and Hb-deferral. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed genetic data from up to 665,460 participants of the FinnGen, Blood Service Biobank and UK Biobank, and used INTERVAL (N = 39,979) for validation. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of IDA and Hb-deferral and utilized publicly available genetic associations to compute polygenic scores for IDA, ferritin and Hb. We fitted models to estimate the effect sizes of these polygenic risk scores (PRSs) on IDA and Hb-deferral risk while accounting for the individual's age, sex, weight, height, smoking status and blood donation history. RESULTS: Significant variants in GWASs of IDA and Hb-deferral appear to be a small subset of variants associated with ferritin and Hb. Effect sizes of genetic predictors of IDA and Hb-deferral are similar to those of age and weight which are typically used in blood donor management. A total genetic score for Hb-deferral was estimated for each individual. The odds ratio estimate between first decile against that at ninth decile of total genetic score distribution ranged from 1.4 to 2.2. CONCLUSION: The value of genetic data in predicting IDA or suitability to donate blood appears to be on a practically useful level.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Telomere Length and Risk of Incident Fracture and Arthroplasty: Findings From UK Biobank.

We investigated independent associations between telomere length and risk of fracture and arthroplasty in UK Biobank participants. Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) was measured in baseline samples using a validated polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method. We used, in men and women separately, Cox proportional hazards models to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for incident fracture (any, osteoporotic) or arthroplasty (hip or knee) over 1,186,410 person-years of follow-up. Covariates included age, white cell count, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, and menopause (women). In further analyses we adjusted for either estimated bone mineral density (eBMD) from heel quantitative ultrasound, handgrip strength, gait speed, total fat mass (bioimpedance), or blood biomarkers, all measured at baseline (2006-2010). We studied 59,500 women and 51,895 men, mean ± standard deviation (SD) age 56.4 ± 8.0 and 57.0 ± 8.3 years, respectively. During follow-up there were 5619 fractures; 5285 hip and 4261 knee arthroplasties. In confounder-adjusted models, longer LTL was associated with reduced risk of incident knee arthroplasty in both men (HR/SD 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-0.97) and women (0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.96), and hip arthroplasty in men (0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.95), but not women (0.98; 95% CI, 0.94-1.01). Longer LTL was weakly associated with reduced risk of any incident fracture in women (HR/SD 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-1.00) with less evidence in men (0.98; 95% CI, 0.93-1.02). Associations with incident outcomes were not materially altered by adjustment for heel eBMD, grip strength, gait speed, fat mass, or blood biomarker measures. In this, the largest study to date, longer LTL was associated with lower risk of incident knee or hip arthroplasty, but only weakly associated with lower risk of fracture. The relative risks were low at a population level, but our findings suggest that common factors acting on the myeloid and musculoskeletal systems might influence later life musculoskeletal outcomes. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Modifiable traits, healthy behaviours, and leukocyte telomere length: a population-based study in UK Biobank.

Background: Telomere length is associated with risk of several age-related diseases and cancers. We aimed to investigate the extent to which telomere length might be modifiable through lifestyle and behaviour, and whether such modification has any clinical consequences. Methods: In this population-based study, we included participants from UK Biobank who had leukocyte telomere length (LTL) measurement, ethnicity, and white blood cell count data. We investigated associations of LTL with 117 potentially modifiable traits, as well as two indices of healthy behaviours incorporating between them smoking, physical activity, diet, maintenance of a healthy bodyweight, and alcohol intake, using both available and imputed data. To help interpretation, associations were summarised as the number of equivalent years of age-related change in LTL by dividing the trait ß coefficients with the age ß coefficient. We used mendelian randomisation to test causality of selected associations. We investigated whether the associations of LTL with 22 diseases were modified by the number of healthy behaviours and the extent to which the associations of more healthy behaviours with greater life expectancy and lower risk of coronary artery disease might be mediated through LTL. Findings: 422 797 participants were available for the analysis (227 620 [53·8%] were women and 400 036 [94·6%] were White). 71 traits showed significant (p<4·27 × 10-4) associations with LTL but most were modest, equivalent to less than 1 year of age-related change in LTL. In multivariable analyses of 17 traits with stronger associations (equivalent to ≥2 years of age-related change in LTL), oily fish intake, educational attainment, and general health status retained a significant association of this magnitude, with walking pace and current smoking being additionally significant at this level of association in the imputed models. Mendelian randomisation analysis suggested that educational attainment and smoking behaviour causally affect LTL. Both indices of healthy behaviour were positively and linearly associated with LTL, with those with the most healthy behaviours having longer LTL equivalent to about 3·5 years of age-related change in LTL than those with the least heathy behaviours (p<0·001). However, healthy behaviours explained less than 0·2% of the total variation in LTL and did not significantly modify the association of LTL with risk of any of the diseases studied. Neither the association of more healthy behaviours on greater life expectancy or lower risk of coronary artery disease were substantially mediated through LTL. Interpretation: Although several potentially modifiable traits and healthy behaviours have a quantifiable association with LTL, at least some of which are likely to be causal, these effects are not of a sufficient magnitude to substantially alter the association between LTL and various diseases or life expectancy. Attempts to change telomere length through lifestyle or behavioural changes might not confer substantial clinical benefit. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and British Heart Foundation.

Association of shorter leucocyte telomere length with risk of frailty.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome of decline that affects multiple systems and predisposes to adverse health outcomes. Although chronological age is the major risk factor, inter-individual variation in risk is not fully understood. Leucocyte telomere length (LTL), a proposed marker of biological age, has been associated with risk of many diseases. We sought to determine whether LTL is associated with risk of frailty. METHODS: We utilized cross-sectional data from 441 781 UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years), with complete data on frailty indicators and LTL. Frailty was defined as the presence of at least three of five indicators: weaker grip strength, slower walking pace, weight loss in the past year, lower physical activity, and exhaustion in the past 2 weeks. LTL was measured using a validated qPCR method and reported as a ratio of the telomere repeat number (T) to a single-copy gene (S) (T/S ratio). Association of LTL with frailty was evaluated using adjusted (chronological age, sex, deprivation, smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, and multimorbidity) multinomial and ordinal regression models, and results are presented as relative risk (RRR) or odds ratios (OR), respectively, alongside the 95% confidence interval (CI). Mendelian randomization (MR), using 131 genetic variants associated with LTL, was used to assess if the association of LTL with frailty was causal. RESULTS: Frail participants (4.6%) were older (median age difference (95% CI): 3 (2.5; 3.5) years, P = 2.73 × 10-33 ), more likely to be female (61%, P = 1.97 × 10-129 ), and had shorter LTL (-0.13SD vs. 0.03SD, P = 5.43 × 10-111 ) than non-frail. In adjusted analyses, both age and LTL were associated with frailty (RRR = 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02; 1.04) per year of older chronological age, P = 3.99 × 10-12 ; 1.10 (1.08; 1.11) per SD shorter LTL, P = 1.46 × 10-30 ). Within each age group (40-49, 50-59, 60-69 years), the prevalence of frailty was about 33% higher in participants with shorter (-2SD) versus longer telomeres (+2SD). MR analysis showed an association of LTL with frailty that was directionally consistent with the observational association, but not statistically significant (MR-Median: OR (95% CI): 1.08 (0.98; 1.19) per SD shorter LTL, P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Inter-individual variation in LTL is associated with the risk of frailty independently of chronological age and other risk factors. Our findings provide evidence for an additional biological determinant of frailty.

Polygenic basis and biomedical consequences of telomere length variation.

Telomeres, the end fragments of chromosomes, play key roles in cellular proliferation and senescence. Here we characterize the genetic architecture of naturally occurring variation in leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and identify causal links between LTL and biomedical phenotypes in 472,174 well-characterized UK Biobank participants. We identified 197 independent sentinel variants associated with LTL at 138 genomic loci (108 new). Genetically determined differences in LTL were associated with multiple biological traits, ranging from height to bone marrow function, as well as several diseases spanning neoplastic, vascular and inflammatory pathologies. Finally, we estimated that, at the age of 40 years, people with an LTL >1 s.d. shorter than the population mean had a 2.5-year-lower life expectancy compared with the group with ≥1 s.d. longer LDL. Overall, we furnish new insights into the genetic regulation of LTL, reveal wide-ranging influences of LTL on physiological traits, diseases and longevity, and provide a powerful resource available to the global research community.

Assessing the role of cortisol in cancer: a wide-ranged Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Cortisol's immunosuppressive, obesogenic, and hyperglycaemic effects suggest that it may play a role in cancer development. However, whether cortisol increases cancer risk is not known. We investigated the potential causal association between plasma cortisol and risk of overall and common site-specific cancers using Mendelian randomisation. METHODS: Three genetic variants associated with morning plasma cortisol levels at the genome-wide significance level (P < 5 × 10-8) in the Cortisol Network consortium were used as genetic instruments. Summary-level genome-wide association study data for the cancer outcomes were obtained from large-scale cancer consortia, the UK Biobank, and the FinnGen consortium. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed using the fixed-effects inverse-variance weighted method. Estimates across data sources were combined using meta-analysis. RESULTS: A standard deviation increase in genetically predicted plasma cortisol was associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer (odds ratio 1.50, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.99; P = 0.005). There was no significant association between genetically predicted plasma cortisol and risk of other common site-specific cancers, including breast, ovarian, prostate, colorectal, lung, or malignant skin cancer, or overall cancer. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that elevated plasma cortisol levels may increase the risk of endometrial cancer but not other cancers. The mechanism by which this occurs remains to be investigated.

A genome-wide meta-analysis yields 46 new loci associating with biomarkers of iron homeostasis.

Iron is essential for many biological functions and iron deficiency and overload have major health implications. We performed a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies from Iceland, the UK and Denmark of blood levels of ferritin (N = 246,139), total iron binding capacity (N = 135,430), iron (N = 163,511) and transferrin saturation (N = 131,471). We found 62 independent sequence variants associating with iron homeostasis parameters at 56 loci, including 46 novel loci. Variants at DUOX2, F5, SLC11A2 and TMPRSS6 associate with iron deficiency anemia, while variants at TF, HFE, TFR2 and TMPRSS6 associate with iron overload. A HBS1L-MYB intergenic region variant associates both with increased risk of iron overload and reduced risk of iron deficiency anemia. The DUOX2 missense variant is present in 14% of the population, associates with all iron homeostasis biomarkers, and increases the risk of iron deficiency anemia by 29%. The associations implicate proteins contributing to the main physiological processes involved in iron homeostasis: iron sensing and storage, inflammation, absorption of iron from the gut, iron recycling, erythropoiesis and bleeding/menstruation.

Impact of age on sorafenib outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma: an international cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus on the effect of sorafenib dosing on efficacy and toxicity in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Older patients are often empirically started on low-dose therapy with the aim to avoid toxicities while maximising clinical efficacy. We aimed to verify whether age impacts on overall survival (OS) and whether a reduced starting dose impacts on OS or toxicity experienced by the elderly. METHODS: In an international, multicentre cohort study, outcomes for those aged <75 or ≥75 years were determined while accounting for common prognostic factors and demographic characteristics in univariable and multivariable models. RESULTS: Five thousand five hundred and ninety-eight patients were recruited; 792 (14.1%) were aged ≥75 years. The elderly were more likely to have larger tumours (>7 cm) (39 vs 33%, p < 0.01) with preserved liver function (67 vs 57.7%) (p < 0.01). No difference in the median OS of those aged ≥75 years and <75 was noted (7.3 months vs 7.2 months; HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.08), p = 0.97). There was no relationship between starting dose of sorafenib 800 mg vs 400 mg/200 mg and OS between those <75 and ≥75 years. The elderly experienced a similar overall incidence of grade 2-4 sorafenib-related toxicity compared to <75 years (63.5 vs 56.7%, p = 0.11). However, the elderly were more likely to discontinue sorafenib due to toxicity (27.0 vs 21.6%, p < 0.01). This did not vary between different starting doses of sorafenib. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical outcomes in the elderly is equivalent to patients aged <75 years, independent of dose of sorafenib prescribed.

Association of Prior Antibiotic Treatment With Survival and Response to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Therapy in Patients With Cancer.

Importance: Gut dysbiosis impairs response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and can be caused by broad-spectrum antibiotic (ATB) therapy. Objective: To evaluate whether there is an association between ATB therapy administered concurrently (cATB) or prior (pATB) to ICI therapy and overall survival (OS) and treatment response to ICI therapy in patients with cancer treated with ICIs in routine clinical practice. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, multicenter, cohort study conducted at 2 tertiary academic referral centers recruited 196 patients with cancer who received ICI therapy between January 1, 2015, and April 1, 2018, in routine clinical practice rather than clinical trials. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival calculated from the time of ICI therapy commencement and radiologic response to ICI treatment defined using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (version 1.1), with disease refractory to ICI therapy defined as progressive disease 6 to 8 weeks after the first ICI dose without evidence of pseudoprogression. Results: Among 196 patients (137 men and 59 women; median [range] age, 68 [27-93] years) with non-small cell lung cancer (n = 119), melanoma (n = 38), and other tumor types (n = 39), pATB therapy (HR, 7.4; 95% CI, 4.3-12.8; P < .001), but not cATB therapy (HR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.5-1.4; P = .76), was associated with worse OS (2 vs 26 months for pATB therapy vs no pATB therapy, respectively) (hazard ratio [HR], 7.4; 95% CI, 4.2-12.9) and a higher likelihood of primary disease refractory to ICI therapy (21 of 26 [81%] vs 66 of 151 [44%], P < .001). Overall survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (2.5 vs 26 months, P < .001), melanoma (3.9 vs 14 months, P < .001), and other tumor types (1.1 vs 11, P < .001) was consistently worse in those who received pATBs vs those who did not. Multivariate analyses confirmed that pATB therapy (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.9-6.1; P < .001) and response to ICI therapy (HR, 8.2; 95% CI, 4.0-16.9; P < .001) were associated with OS independent of tumor site, disease burden, and performance status. Conclusions and Relevance: Despite being limited by sample size, geographic origin, and the lack of correlative analyses on patients' gut microbiota, this study suggests that pATB therapy but not cATB therapy is associated with a worse treatment response and OS in unselected patients treated with ICIs in routine clinical practice. Mechanistic studies are urgently required to investigate ATB-mediated alterations of gut microbiota as a determinant of poorer outcome following ICI treatment.

Effects of a prevention program on multiple health-compromising behaviours in adolescence: A cluster randomized controlled trial.

We aimed to assess the effectiveness of 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione', a school-based prevention program delivered by trained teachers and designed to tackle smoking, alcohol misuse, dietary risks, and physical inactivity in adolescence. We evaluated the program between 2010 and 2013 with a two-arm, parallel-group, multicentre cluster randomized controlled trial in which schools were the units of randomization. We collected data on health-compromising behaviours using self-reported measurements of behaviour frequency administered before and after program implementation. We used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate program effects on health-compromising behaviours. The analysis sample included 3410 middle school students and 1651 high school students. Among middle school students, mean age at baseline was 12 years (standard deviation [SD] 0.5 years), 51% were boys, and 41% had high socioeconomic status [SES] (defined as having at least one parent/guardian with university level education). In high school students, mean age at baseline was 14 years (SD 0.7 years), 56% were boys, and 31% had high SES. The program did not have effects on smoking, alcohol misuse, and physical activity. The program had iatrogenic effects in regard to some eating behaviours, resulting in (i) lower odds of fruit consumption among middle-school students (odds ratio [OR] 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.99) and (ii) lower odds of having breakfast every day in high-school students at the post-intervention measurement (OR 0.76; 95%CI 0.58-0.99) but not at one-year follow-up (OR 0.94; 95%CI 0.69-1.28). Due to the possibility of unintended effects, we advise against disseminating 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione' in its present form. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN00953701.

Influence of HIV Infection on the Natural History of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Results From a Global Multicohort Study.

PURPOSE: Conflicting evidence indicates that HIV seropositivity may influence the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a leading cause of mortality in people with HIV. We aimed to verify whether HIV affected the overall survival (OS) of patients with HCC, independent of treatment and geographic origin. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We designed an international multicohort study of patients with HCC accrued from four continents who did not receive any anticancer treatment. We estimated the effect of HIV seropositivity on patients' OS while accounting for common prognostic factors and demographic characteristics in uni- and multivariable models. RESULTS: A total of 1,588 patients were recruited, 132 of whom were HIV positive. Most patients clustered within Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) C or D criteria (n = 1,168 [74%]) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class B (median score, 7; interquartile range [IQR], 3). At HCC diagnosis, the majority of patients who were HIV-positive (n = 65 [64%]) had been on antiretrovirals for a median duration of 8.3 years (IQR, 8.59 years) and had median CD4+ cell counts of 256 (IQR, 284) with undetectable HIV RNA (n = 68 [52%]). OS decreased significantly throughout BCLC stages 0 to D (16, 12, 7.5, 3.1, and 3 months, respectively; P < .001). Median OS of patients who were HIV-positive was one half that of their HIV-uninfected counterparts (2.2 months [bootstrap 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.1 months] v 4.1 months [95% CI, 3.6 to 4.4 months]). In adjusted analyses, HIV seropositivity increased the hazard of death by 24% ( P = .0333) independent of BCLC ( P < .0001), CTP ( P < .0001), α-fetoprotein ( P < .0001), geographical origin ( P < .0001), and male sex ( P = .0016). Predictors of worse OS in patients who were HIV-positive included CTP ( P = .0071) and α-fetoprotein ( P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Despite adequate antiretroviral treatment, HIV seropositivity is associated with decreased survival in HCC, independent of stage, anticancer treatment, and geographical origin. Mechanistic studies investigating the immunobiology of HIV-associated HCC are urgently required.

Melanoma-prone families: new evidence of distinctive clinical and histological features of melanomas in CDKN2A mutation carriers.

Germline mutations on the CDKN2A gene, the most important known genetic factors associated with cutaneous melanomas (CMs), predispose carriers to multiple primary CMs (MPMs) with higher frequency and younger onset compared to non-carriers. Most of the largest published studies concerning clinical and histological characteristics of CMs with CDKN2A mutation carriers did not specify if the described CMs are first or subsequent to the first, and they used sporadic CMs from non-genotyped patients as controls. We conducted a single-centre observational study to compare clinical and histological CM features of 32 unrelated carriers (MUT) of 5 germline CDKN2A mutations (one of which was never previously described) compared to 100 genotyped wild-type (WT) patients. We stratified the data based on time of diagnosis, anatomical site and histological subtype of CMs, demonstrating several significant unreported differences between the two groups. MUT developed a higher number of dysplastic nevi and MPMs. We proved for the first time that anatomical distribution of CMs in MUT was independent of gender, unlike WTs. MUTs developed in situ and superficial spreading melanomas (SSMs) more frequently, with significantly higher number of SSMs on the head/neck. In MUTs, Breslow thickness was significantly lower for all invasive CMs. When CMs were stratified on the basis of the time of occurrence, statistical significance was maintained only for SSMs subsequent to the first. In WTs, Clark level was significantly higher, and ulceration was more prevalent than in MUTs. Significant differences in ulceration were observed only in SSMs. In nodular CMs, we did not find differences in terms of Breslow thickness or ulceration between WTs and MUTs. In situ CMs developed 10 years earlier in MUTs with respect to WTs, whereas no significant differences were observed in invasive CMs. In contrast to those reported previously by other authors, we did not find a difference in skin phototype.

The ALBI grade provides objective hepatic reserve estimation across each BCLC stage of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Overall survival (OS) is a composite clinical endpoint in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) due to the mutual influence of cirrhosis and active malignancy in dictating patient's mortality. The ALBI grade is a recently described index of liver dysfunction in hepatocellular carcinoma, based solely on albumin and bilirubin levels. Whilst accurate, this score lacks cross-validation, especially in intermediate stage HCC, where OS is highly heterogeneous. METHODS: We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of the ALBI grade in estimating OS in a large, multi-centre study of 2426 patients, including a large proportion of intermediate stage patients treated with chemoembolization (n=1461) accrued from Europe, the United States and Asia. RESULTS: Analysis of survival by primary treatment modality confirmed the ALBI grade as a significant predictor of patient OS after surgical resection (p<0.001), transarterial chemoembolization (p<0.001) and sorafenib (p<0.001). Stratification by Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage confirmed the independent prognostic value of the ALBI across the diverse stages of the disease, geographical regions of origin and time of recruitment to the study (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multi-centre retrospective study, the ALBI grade satisfied the criteria for accuracy and reproducibility following statistical validation in Eastern and Western HCC patients, including those treated with chemoembolization. Consideration should be given to the ALBI grade as a stratifying biomarker of liver reserve in routine clinical practice. LAY SUMMARY: Liver failure is a key determinant influencing the natural history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this large multi-centre study we externally validate a novel biomarker of liver functional reserve, the ALBI grade, across all the stages of HCC.

Prognostic sub-classification of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter cohort study with propensity score analysis.

There is significant heterogeneity in the clinicopathological characteristics of intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (IHCC). This also translates to treatment as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is used as first-line therapy for patients with IHCC; however, in Asia liver resection (LR) is preferred. Prognostic tools are required to help guide clinicians in deciding treatment options. This study evaluates the prognostic impact of the Intermediate Stage Score (ISS) on overall survival (OS) in a large, multicenter cohort study of patients with IHCC treated with TACE or surgery LR. Consecutive patients from centers in Japan, Korea, Italy and the United Kingdom who underwent TACE or LR between 2001 and 2015 were enrolled. Propensity score (PS) adjustment was used to remove residual confounding and applied to LR (n = 162) and TACE (n = 449) to determine the prognostic significance of ISS. Among 611 patients, 75 % were men and 25 % women, with a mean age of 70 years. ISS is a valid prognostic tool in the BCLC-B population with a median OS ISS 1-51, 2-38.3, 3-24.3, 4-15.6, 5-16 months (p < 0.0001). ISS was analyzed within each treatment modality, and this was a valid prognostic score among those treated with TACE and LR (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.008). In the PS-adjusted model, ISS retained its prognostic utility in TACE and LR groups (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.007). ISS optimizes prognostic prediction in IHCC, reducing clinical heterogeneity, and is a useful tool for patients treated for TACE or LR.

Combined sequential use of HAP and ART scores to predict survival outcome and treatment failure following chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-center comparative study.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is variable, despite a myriad of prognostic markers. We compared and integrated the established prognostic models, HAP and ART scores, for their accuracy of overall survival (OS) prediction. RESULTS: In both training and validation sets, HAP and ART scores emerged as independent predictors of OS (p<0.01) with HAP achieving better prognostic accuracy (c-index: 0.68) over ART (0.57). We tested both scores in combination to evaluate their combined ability to predict OS. Subgroup analysis of BCLC-C patients revealed favorable HAP stage (p<0.001) and radiological response after initial TACE (p<0.001) as positive prognostic factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prognostic scores were studied using multivariable Cox regression and c-index analysis in 83 subjects with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) A/B stage from UK and Italy (training set), and 660 from Korea and Japan (validation set), all treated with conventional TACE. Scores were further validated in an separate analysis of patients with BCLC-C stage disease (n=63) receiving initial TACE. CONCLUSION: ART and HAP scores are validated indices in patients with intermediate stage HCC undergoing TACE. The HAP score is best suited for screening patients prior to initial TACE, whilst sequential ART assessment improves early detection of chemoembolization failure. BCLC-C patients with low HAP stage may be a subgroup where TACE should be explored in clinical studies.