The positive predictive value of cervical smears in previously screened postmenopausal women: the Heart and Estrogen/progestin Replacement Study (HERS).

BACKGROUND: The benefits and risks of performing annual cervical smears on postmenopausal women are not well defined. The independent effect of hormone replacement therapy on development of cytologic abnormalities is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the positive predictive value of cervical smears in previously screened postmenopausal women and to determine the effect of oral estrogen plus progestin on incident cervical cytologic abnormalities. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (incidence) and randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (hormone therapy). SETTING: 20 U.S. outpatient and community clinical centers. PARTICIPANTS: 2561 women with a uterus and normal cytologic characteristics at baseline. INTERVENTIONS: Annual smears; oral conjugated equine estrogens, 0. 625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 2.5 mg/d, or identical placebo. MEASUREMENTS: Incident cytologic abnormalities (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance, atypical glandular cells of undetermined significance, low-grade squamous epithelial lesion, and high-grade squamous epithelial lesion) and final histologic diagnoses. RESULTS: The incidence of new cytologic abnormalities in the 2 years following a normal smear was 110 per 4895 person-years (23 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 18 to 27 per 1000 person-years]). Among the 103 women with known histologic diagnoses, one had mild to moderate dysplasia. The positive predictive value of any smear abnormality identified 1 year after a normal smear, therefore, was 0% (CI, 0% to 5.0%) (0 of 78 women); the positive predictive value of abnormalities found within 2 years was 0.9% (CI, 0.0% to 3.0%) (1 of 110 women). In hormone-treated compared with non-hormone-treated women, the incidence of cytologic abnormalities was nonsignificantly higher (relative hazard, 1.36 [CI, 0.93 to 1.99]), largely because of a nonsignificant 58% greater incidence of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (relative hazard, 1.58 [CI, 0.99 to 2.52]). CONCLUSIONS: Because of a poor positive predictive value, cervical smears should not be performed within 2 years of normal cytologic results in postmenopausal women. Therapy with oral estrogen plus progestin does not significantly affect the incidence of cytologic abnormalities.

Transvaginal ultrasonography compared with endometrial biopsy for the detection of endometrial disease. Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions Trial.

BACKGROUND: Transvaginal ultrasonography is a noninvasive procedure that may be used to detect endometrial disease. However, its usefulness in screening for asymptomatic disease in postmenopausal women before or during treatment with estrogen or estrogen-progesterone replacement is not known. METHODS: We compared the sensitivity and specificity of transvaginal ultrasonography and endometrial biopsy for the detection of endometrial disease in 448 postmenopausal women who received estrogen alone, cyclic or continuous estrogen-progesterone, or placebo for three years. RESULTS: Concurrent ultrasonographic and biopsy results were available for 577 examinations in the 448 women, 99 percent of whom were undergoing routine annual follow-up. Endometrial thickness was less than 5 mm in 45 percent of the examinations, 5 to 10 mm in 41 percent, more than 10 mm in 12 percent, and not measured in 2 percent, and it was higher in the women receiving estrogen alone than in the other groups. Biopsy detected 11 cases of serious disease: 1 case of adenocarcinoma, 2 cases of atypical simple hyperplasia, and 8 cases of complex hyperplasia. Biopsy also detected simple hyperplasia in 20 cases. At a threshold value of 5 mm for endometrial thickness, transvaginal ultrasonography had a positive predictive value of 9 percent for detecting any abnormality, with 90 percent sensitivity, 48 percent specificity, and a negative predictive value of 99 percent. With this threshold, a biopsy would be indicated in more than half the women, only 4 percent of whom had serious disease. CONCLUSIONS: Transvaginal ultrasonography has a poor positive predictive value but a high negative predictive value for detecting serious endometrial disease in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and Down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP.

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P < 0.0001) and from each other (P = 0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.

Flow cytometric evaluation of epithelial ovarian cancer.

We investigated the prognostic significance of deoxyribonucleic acid content and proliferative activity of tumor cell populations as measured by flow cytometry of the tumor specimens from 115 women with epithelial ovarian cancer. Deoxyribonucleic acid aneuploidy was found in 87 of 115 (76%) of these cancers with a mean deoxyribonucleic acid index of 1.6 and S-phase fraction of 14.7%. The S-phase fraction of the 28 (24%) diploid tumors was 7.0%. Deoxyribonucleic acid ploidy was significantly correlated with survival. S-phase fraction was significantly correlated with ploidy, residual tumor, histology, grade, ascites, time to recurrence, and survival. Diploidy versus aneuploidy were the best discriminating values for deoxyribonucleic acid index and an S-phase fraction of greater or less than 18% for that parameter. Multivariate analysis revealed stage, S-phase fraction, residual tumor, and grade to be independently associated with time to recurrence, and stage, age, S-phase fraction, and largest metastases were factors associated with survival. Deoxyribonucleic acid ploidy did not significantly improve either model. These results suggest that abnormalities of deoxyribonucleic acid content and the proliferative activity of tumor cell populations are reflective of their biologic activity.

Chromosomal breakage and sister chromatid exchange in peripheral blood lymphocytes and lymphoblastoid cell lines in the X-linked lymphoproliferative syndrome.

The frequencies of chromosomal aberrations and sister chromatid exchange (SCE) were measured in lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) and in phytohemagglutinin (PHA)- and pokeweed mitogen (PWM)-stimulated lymphocytes from males with X-linked lymphoproliferative (XLP) syndrome, their obligate carrier mothers, and control subjects. We observed an increased frequency of chromosomal aberrations including increased polyploidy in LCLs derived from families with XLP with time in culture. The SCE rate in LCLs (mean of 3.89 SCEs per cell) was much lower than that in PHA- or PWM-stimulated lymphocytes: PWM-stimulated lymphocytes showed 9.58 SCEs per cell and PHA-stimulated cells had 11.38 SCEs per cell. A greater number of chromosomal gaps and breaks in the D-group chromosomes of LCLs of affected males and carrier females were identified compared to the number expected, based on chromosomal length and the number of aberrations seen in PHA-stimulated cell cultures. No differences in the frequency of SCEs or chromosomal aberrations were found in control subjects and affected males or carrier females in the peripheral lymphocytes stimulated by PHA. Phenotypes of XLP appear to arise from failure of immune responses to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and not from intrinsic chromosomal breakage or instability.