Recent HIV infection among pregnant women in the 2017 antenatal sentinel cross-sectional survey, South Africa: Assay-based incidence measurement.

INTRODUCTION: New HIV infection during pre-conception and pregnancy is a significant contributor of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa. This study estimated HIV incidence (defined as new infection within the last one year from the time of the survey which included both new infections occurred during pregnancy or just before pregnancy) among pregnant women and described the characteristics of recently infected pregnant women at national level. METHODS: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, we conducted a national cross-sectional survey among pregnant women aged 15-49 years old attending antenatal care at 1,595 public facilities. Blood specimens were collected from pregnant women and tested for HIV in a centralised laboratory. Plasma viral load and Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunosorbent Assay (LAg) tests were further performed on HIV positive specimens to differentiate between recent and long-term infections. Recent infection was defined as infection that occurred within one year from the date of collection of blood specimen for the survey. Data on age, age of partner, and marital status were collected through interviews. Women whose specimens were classified as recent by LAg assay and with viral loads >1,000 copies/mL were considered as recently infected. The calculated proportion of HIV positive women with recent infection was adjusted for assay-specific parameters to estimate annual incidence. Survey multinomial logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with being recently infected using HIV negative women as a reference group. Age-disparate relationship was defined as having a partner 5 or more years older. RESULTS: Of 10,049 HIV positive participants with LAg and viral load data, 1.4% (136) were identified as recently infected. The annual HIV incidence was 1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-1.7). In multivariable analyses, being single (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.8-6.2) or cohabiting (aOR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.8-7.7), compared to being married as well as being in an age-disparate relationship among young women (aOR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.0-4.7; reference group: young women (15-24years) whose partners were not 5 years or more older) were associated with higher odds of recent infection. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to previous studies among pregnant women, the incidence estimated in this study was substantially lower. However, the UNAIDS target to reduce incidence by 75% by 2020 (which is equivalent to reducing incidence to <1%) has not been met. The implementation of HIV prevention and treatment interventions should be intensified, targeting young women engaged in age-disparate relationship and unmarried women to fast track progress towards the UNAIDS target.

Awareness of HIV-positive status and linkage to treatment prior to pregnancy in the "test and treat" era: A national antenatal sentinel survey, 2017, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Knowledge of HIV status in South Africa (SA) is reported to be 90% among people living with HIV. National level estimates could mask population-specific levels, which are critical to monitor program coverage and potential impact. Using data from the 2017 national antenatal sentinel survey, we assessed knowledge of HIV-positive status, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and socio-demographic characteristics associated with knowledge of HIV-positive status prior to the current pregnancy among women attending antenatal care. METHODS: Between 1 October and 15 November 2017, a nationally representative sample of 32,716 pregnant women were enrolled from 1,595 public health facilities selected from all districts of SA. Data on age, gravidity, knowledge of HIV-positive status and ART initiation prior to pregnancy were extracted from medical records. A blood sample was collected from each woman regardless of prior knowledge of HIV status or ART history, and tested for HIV in the laboratory. All HIV-positive pregnant women enrolled in the survey were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. Multivariable survey logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with knowledge of HIV-positive status prior to the current pregnancy. RESULTS: Of 10,065 eligible HIV-positive women, 60.8% (95% confidence interval (CI):59.9%-61.7%) knew their HIV status prior to the current pregnancy, of whom 91.1% (95% CI: 90.4%-91.7%) initiated ART prior to the current pregnancy. Knowledge of HIV-positive status was lower among adolescent girls and young women (15-24 years) (38.9%) and primigravid women (40.5%) compared with older women (35-49 years) (75.5%) and multigravid women (64.7%). In a multivariable analysis, significant effect modification was found between gravidity and age (P value = 0.047). Being in the age group 15-24 years compared to the age group 35-49 years decreased the odds of knowing HIV-positive status by 80% (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.2, 95% CI:0.1-0.4) among primigravid women and by 60%(AOR: 0.4, 95% CI:0.3-0.4) among multigravid women. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of HIV-positive status prior to the current pregnancy fell short of the target of 90% among pregnant women living with HIV. This was especially low among adolescent girls and young women, highlighting the gap in youth friendly reproductive health and HIV testing services.

Introduction of Routine HIV Birth Testing in the South African National Consolidated Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: South Africa represents the first high-burden setting to introduce routine virologic testing at birth within its early infant diagnosis program, implemented in June 2015. National HIV birth testing coverage, intrauterine transmission rates and case rates for the first year since introduction of universal birth testing are reported. METHODS: HIV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test data from June 2015 to May 2016 were extracted from the National Health Laboratory Service's central data repository by year, month, age, result and geographic location. Birth testing was defined as all HIV PCR tests performed at <7 days of life; coverage as the proportion of all HIV-exposed neonates born who were tested at birth; estimated intrauterine transmission rate as the percentage of HIV PCR positive tests in HIV-exposed neonates tested and case rates as the number of HIV PCR positive tests per 100,000 total live births. RESULTS: Between June 2015 and May 2016, the South African national monthly birth testing coverage increased from 39% (8636 tests) to 93% (20,479 tests). During this period, the number of positive tests at birth increased from 114 to 234 per month, equating to a national intrauterine transmission rate of 1.1% and a birth case rate of 247 per 100,000 live births. CONCLUSIONS: Universal birth testing for all HIV-exposed neonates is rapidly being achieved in South Africa, facilitating earlier detection of intrauterine infected neonates. However, the successful linkage into care of HIV-infected neonates and their treatment outcomes remain to be assessed.

Toward elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa: how best to monitor early infant infections within the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission Program.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has utilized three independent data sources to measure the impact of its program for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV. These include the South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), the District Health Information System (DHIS), and South African PMTCT Evaluation (SAPMTCTE) surveys. We compare the results of each, outlining advantages and limitations, and make recommendations for monitoring transmission rates as South Africa works toward achieving elimination of mother-to-child transmission (eMTCT). METHODS: HIV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test data, collected between 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014, from the NHLS, DHIS and SAPMTCTE surveys were used to compare early mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rates in South Africa. Data from the NHLS and DHIS were also used to compare early infant diagnosis (EID) coverage. RESULTS: The age-adjusted NHLS early MTCT rates of 4.1% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011 and 2.3% in 2012 consistently fall within the 95% confidence interval as measured by three SAPMTCTE surveys in corresponding time periods. Although DHIS data over-estimated MTCT rates in 2010, the MTCT rate declines thereafter to converge with age-adjusted NHLS MTCT rates by 2012. National EID coverage from NHLS data increases from around 52% in 2010 to 87% in 2014. DHIS data over-estimates EID coverage, but this can be corrected by employing an alternative estimate of the HIV-exposed infant population. CONCLUSION: NHLS and DHIS, two routine data sources, provide very similar early MTCT rate estimates that fall within the SAPMTCTE survey confidence intervals for 2012. This analysis validates the usefulness of routine data sources to track eMTCT in South Africa.

Cost and Impact of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa: Focusing the Program on Specific Age Groups and Provinces.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, South Africa set a goal of circumcising 4.3 million men ages 15-49 by 2016. By the end of March 2014, 1.9 million men had received voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). In an effort to accelerate progress, South Africa undertook a modeling exercise to determine whether circumcising specific client age groups or geographic locations would be particularly impactful or cost-effective. Results will inform South Africa's efforts to develop a national strategy and operational plan for VMMC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study team populated the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0) with HIV incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM), as well as national and provincial population and HIV prevalence estimates. We derived baseline circumcision rates from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. The model showed that circumcising men ages 20-34 offers the most immediate impact on HIV incidence and requires the fewest circumcisions per HIV infection averted. The greatest impact over a 15-year period is achieved by circumcising men ages 15-24. When the model assumes a unit cost increase with client age, men ages 15-29 emerge as the most cost-effective group. When we assume a constant cost for all ages, the most cost-effective age range is 15-34 years. Geographically, the program is cost saving in all provinces; differences in the VMMC program's cost-effectiveness across provinces were obscured by uncertainty in HIV incidence projections. CONCLUSION: The VMMC program's impact and cost-effectiveness vary by age-targeting strategy. A strategy focusing on men ages 15-34 will maximize program benefits. However, because clients older than 25 access VMMC services at low rates, South Africa could consider promoting demand among men ages 25-34, without denying services to those in other age groups. Uncertainty in the provincial estimates makes them insufficient to support geographic targeting.

The role of quality improvement in achieving effective large-scale prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: After a late start and poor initial performance, the South African Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission (PMTCT) programme achieved rapid progress in achieving effective national-scale implementation of a complex intervention across a large number of different geographic and socioeconomic contexts. This study shows how quality-improvement methods played a significant part in PMTCT improvements. METHODS: The South African rollout of the PMTCT programme underwent significant evolution, from a largely ineffective, context-insensitive, top-down cascaded training approach to a sophisticated bottom-up health systems' intervention that used modern adaptive designs. Several demonstration projects used quality-improvement methods to improve the performance of the PMTCT programme. These results prompted a national redesign of key elements of the PMTCT programme which were rapidly scaled up across the country using a unified, simplified data-driven approach. RESULTS: The scale up of the quality-improvement approach contributed to a dramatic fall in the nationally reported transmission rate for mother to child transmission of HIV. By 2012, measured infection rate of HIV-exposed infants at around 6 weeks after birth was 2.6%, close to the reported transmission rates under clinical trial conditions. CONCLUSION: Quality-improvement methods can be used to improve reliability of complex treatment programmes delivered at primary-care level. Rapid scale up and effective population coverage can be accomplished through a sequence of demonstration, testing and rapid spread of locally tested implementation strategies supported by real-time feedback of a simplified indicator dataset and multilevel leadership support.

The health and health system of South Africa: historical roots of current public health challenges.

The roots of a dysfunctional health system and the collision of the epidemics of communicable and non-communicable diseases in South Africa can be found in policies from periods of the country's history, from colonial subjugation, apartheid dispossession, to the post-apartheid period. Racial and gender discrimination, the migrant labour system, the destruction of family life, vast income inequalities, and extreme violence have all formed part of South Africa's troubled past, and all have inexorably affected health and health services. In 1994, when apartheid ended, the health system faced massive challenges, many of which still persist. Macroeconomic policies, fostering growth rather than redistribution, contributed to the persistence of economic disparities between races despite a large expansion in social grants. The public health system has been transformed into an integrated, comprehensive national service, but failures in leadership and stewardship and weak management have led to inadequate implementation of what are often good policies. Pivotal facets of primary health care are not in place and there is a substantial human resources crisis facing the health sector. The HIV epidemic has contributed to and accelerated these challenges. All of these factors need to be addressed by the new government if health is to be improved and the Millennium Development Goals achieved in South Africa.

Achieving the health Millennium Development Goals for South Africa: challenges and priorities.

15 years after liberation from apartheid, South Africans are facing new challenges for which the highest calibre of leadership, vision, and commitment is needed. The effect of the unprecedented HIV/AIDS epidemic has been immense. Substantial increases in mortality and morbidity are threatening to overwhelm the health system and undermine the potential of South Africa to attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However The Lancet's Series on South Africa has identified several examples of leadership and innovation that point towards a different future scenario. We discuss the type of vision, leadership, and priority actions needed to achieve such a change. We still have time to change the health trajectory of the country, and even meet the MDGs. The South African Government, installed in April, 2009, has the mandate and potential to address the public health emergencies facing the country--will they do so or will another opportunity and many more lives be lost?