Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Competing Risk Bias in Prognostic Models Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence: Impact on Clinical Decision-making.

Background and Aims: Existing models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence do not account for competing risk events and, thus, may overestimate the probability of HCC. Our goal was to quantify this bias for patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C. Methods: We analyzed a nationwide cohort of patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C infection from Scotland. Two HCC prognostic models were developed: (1) a Cox regression model ignoring competing risk events and (2) a Fine-Gray regression model accounting for non-HCC mortality as a competing risk. Both models included the same set of prognostic factors used by previously developed HCC prognostic models. Two predictions were calculated for each patient: first, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and second, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 2. Results: The study population comprised 1629 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV, followed for 3.8 years on average. A total of 82 incident HCC events and 159 competing risk events (ie, non-HCC deaths) were observed. The mean predicted 3-year probability of HCC was 3.37% for model 1 (Cox) and 3.24% for model 2 (Fine-Gray). For most patients (76%), the difference in the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and model 2 was minimal (ie, within 0 to ±0.3%). A total of 2.6% of patients had a large discrepancy exceeding 2%; however, these were all patients with a 3-year probability exceeding >5% in both models. Conclusion: Prognostic models that ignore competing risks do overestimate the future probability of developing HCC. However, the degree of overestimation-and the way it is patterned-means that the impact on HCC screening decisions is likely to be modest.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

Uptake of endoscopic screening for gastroesophageal varices and factors associated with variceal bleeding in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection and compensated cirrhosis, 2005-2016: a national database linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Primary measures for preventing morbidity and mortality associated with bleeding gastroesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients include endoscopic screening. AIM: To identify factors associated with (a) screening and (b) first hospital admission for variceal bleeding among cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients attending specialist care in Scotland. METHODS: The Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database was linked to national hospitalisation and deaths records to identify all chronic HCV patients diagnosed with compensated cirrhosis in 2005-2016 (n = 2741). The adjusted odds of being screened by calendar year period were estimated using logistic regression, and the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of a first variceal bleed using Cox regression. RESULTS: About 34% were screened within the period starting 12 months before and ending 12 months after cirrhosis diagnosis. The proportion screened was stable in 2005-2010 at 42%, declining to 37% in 2011-2013 and 26% in 2014-2016. Odds of screening were decreased for age-groups <40 (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.77) and 60+ years (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.94), history of antiviral therapy (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55-0.89), and cirrhosis diagnosis in 2014-2015, compared with 2008-2010 (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.52-0.86). Compared with 2008-2010, there was no evidence for an increased/decreased relative risk of a first variceal bleed in any other period, but viral clearance was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Overall screening uptake following cirrhosis diagnosis was low, and the decline in recent years is of concern. The stable bleeding risk over time may be attributable both to ongoing prevention initiatives and to changing diagnostic procedures creating a patient pool with milder disease in more recent years.

Liver transplant listing for hepatitis C-associated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma has fallen in the United Kingdom since the introduction of direct-acting antiviral therapy.

Following the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), there have been reports of declining incidence of hepatitis C (HCV)-related liver disease as a liver transplantation indication. In this study, we assessed the impact of DAA on liver transplant indications in the UK and waiting list outcomes for patients with HCV. We assessed UK adult elective liver transplant registrants between 2006 and 2017. The aetiology of liver disease at registration was reclassified using an accepted hierarchical system and changes were assessed over time and compared before and after the introduction of DAA. Registration UKELD scores and 1-year waiting list outcomes were also compared. The proportion of waiting list patients registered with HCV-related cirrhosis reduced after the introduction of DAA from 10.5% in 2013 to 4.7% in 2016 (P < 0.001). Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) was the leading indication for liver transplantation followed by liver cancer (26.1% and 18.4% in 2016, respectively). The proportion of registrations with Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV reduced from 46.4% in 2013 to 33.7% in 2016 (P = 0.002). For patients with HCV-related cirrhosis at one year the outcomes of death, transplantation, delisting due to improvement or deterioration and awaiting a graft at 1 year were similar. For patients with HCV-related HCC, the proportion dying at 1 year reduced significantly from 2.9% to 0.0% (P = 0.04). These data demonstrate an association between DAA and reduced listing rates for HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, but no significant changes in waiting list outcomes other than reduced mortality in the HCC group.

Pretreatment prediction of response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: development and validation of the UDCA Response Score.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. METHODS: We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. FINDINGS: 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present). INTERPRETATION: We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca.

Stereological Analysis of Liver Biopsy Histology Sections as a Reference Standard for Validating Non-Invasive Liver Fat Fraction Measurements by MRI.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Validation of non-invasive methods of liver fat quantification requires a reference standard. However, using standard histopathology assessment of liver biopsies is problematical because of poor repeatability. We aimed to assess a stereological method of measuring volumetric liver fat fraction (VLFF) in liver biopsies and to use the method to validate a magnetic resonance imaging method for measurement of VLFF. METHODS: VLFFs were measured in 59 subjects (1) by three independent analysts using a stereological point counting technique combined with the Delesse principle on liver biopsy histological sections and (2) by three independent analysts using the HepaFat-Scan® technique on magnetic resonance images of the liver. Bland Altman statistics and intraclass correlation (IC) were used to assess the repeatability of each method and the bias between the methods of liver fat fraction measurement. RESULTS: Inter-analyst repeatability coefficients for the stereology and HepaFat-Scan® methods were 8.2 (95% CI 7.7-8.8)% and 2.4 (95% CI 2.2-2.5)% VLFF respectively. IC coefficients were 0.86 (95% CI 0.69-0.93) and 0.990 (95% CI 0.985-0.994) respectively. Small biases (≤3.4%) were observable between two pairs of analysts using stereology while no significant biases were observable between any of the three pairs of analysts using HepaFat-Scan®. A bias of 1.4±0.5% VLFF was observed between the HepaFat-Scan® method and the stereological method. CONCLUSIONS: Repeatability of the stereological method is superior to the previously reported performance of assessment of hepatic steatosis by histopathologists and is a suitable reference standard for validating non-invasive methods of measurement of VLFF.

Three-dimensional representation software as image enhancement tool in small-bowel capsule endoscopy: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Three-dimensional imaging in capsule endoscopy is not currently feasible due to hardware limitations. However, software algorithms that enable three-dimensional reconstruction in capsule endoscopy are available. METHODS: Feasibility study. A phantom was designed to test the accuracy of three-dimensional reconstruction. Thereafter, 192 small-bowel capsule endoscopy images (of vascular: 50; inflammatory: 73; protruding structures: 69) were reviewed with the aid of a purpose-built three-dimensional reconstruction software. Seven endoscopists rated visualisation improved or non-improved. Subgroup analyses performed for diagnostic category, diagnosis, image surface morphology and colour and SBCE equipment used (PillCam(®) vs. MiroCam(®)). RESULTS: Overall, phantom experiments showed that the three-dimensional reconstruction software was accurate at 90% of red, 70% of yellow and 45% of white phantom models. Enhanced visualisation for 56% of vascular, 23% of inflammatory and <10% of protruding structures was noted (P=0.007, 0.172 and 0.008, respectively). Furthermore, three-dimensional software application enhanced 53.7% of red, 21.8% of white, 17.3% of red and white, and 9.2% of images of lesions with colour similar to that of the surrounding mucosa, P<0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: Application of a three-dimensional reconstruction software in capsule endoscopy leads to image enhancement for a significant proportion of vascular, but less so for inflammatory and protruding lesions. Until optics technology allows hardware-enabled three-dimensional reconstruction, it seems a plausible alternative.

The diversity and management of chronic hepatitis B virus infections in the United Kingdom: a wake-up call.

BACKGROUND: Through migration, diversity of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has changed, affecting disease burden and control. We describe clinical and viral characteristics of chronic HBV in the United Kingdom. METHODS: A total of 698 individuals with chronic HBV infection were recruited from referral liver centers. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. RESULTS: Sixty-one percent of patients were male, 80% were not born in the United Kingdom, and the largest ethnicity was East/Southeast Asian (36%). Twenty-two percent were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seropositive; 20.4% (59/289) had cirrhosis and 10 (1.7%) had hepatocellular carcinoma. Genotype D was most common (31%) followed by A, C, B, and E (20%, 20%, 19%, and 9%, respectively). Genotype was significantly associated with country of birth, length of time in the United Kingdom, HBeAg status, and precore and basal core promoter mutations. One-third were on treatment, with men independently more likely to be treated. Only 18% of those on treatment were on recommended first-line therapies, and 30% were on lamivudine monotherapy. Among treated individuals, 27% had antiviral drug resistance. Testing rates for human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, and delta coinfections were low. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated diversity of chronic HBV infections in UK patients, suggesting that optimal management requires awareness of the variable patterns of chronic HBV in countries of origin. We also found less-than-optimal clinical management practices, possible gender-based treatment bias, and the need to improve testing for coinfections.

Colorectal disease in liver allograft recipients -- a clinicopathological study with follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the spectrum and outcome of colorectal diseases occurring in adult liver allograft recipients. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort analysis of clinical, microbiological and histopathological data regarding colorectal disease. PATIENTS: Forty three out of 302 adult primary liver allograft recipients were transplanted and followed up (at median 42 months) at a tertiary referral centre/teaching hospital. RESULTS: Out of 302 patients, 43 (14%) were investigated (by endoscopy and/or laparotomy) for symptoms of colorectal disease after orthotopic liver transplantation. The symptoms were: diarrhoea (n = 31); per-rectal bleeding (n = 5); and symptoms relating to pre-transplant ulcerative colitis (n = 7). Among the patients without known ulcerative colitis, per-rectal bleeding occurring early after orthotopic liver transplantation was most commonly caused by cytomegalovirus colitis and carried a poor prognosis. Excluding ulcerative colitis, the commonest causes of diarrhoea were Clostridium difficile, cytomegalovirus infection and medications, particularly during the first 2 months after orthotopic liver transplantation. No cases of colorectal graft-versus-host disease, cryptosporidiosis, amoebiasis, atypical mycobacterial infection or post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease were demonstrated. The activity of pre-transplant ulcerative colitis was unchanged or increased after orthotopic liver transplantation. Two further patients developed new-onset ulcerative colitis after orthotopic liver transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Ulcerative colitis, C. difficile, cytomegalovirus infection and medications are the commonest colorectal causes of morbidity after orthotopic liver transplantation. Adult liver allograft recipients are, however, unlikely to show certain large bowel diseases encountered in other immunosuppressed groups. Amongst non-ulcerative colitis patients, those presenting with diarrhoea show a good outcome with appropriate management, whereas those with per-rectal bleeding have a more guarded prognosis.