Gleason grading after neoadjuvant hormonal therapy retains prognostic value for systemic progression following radical prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: The Gleason grading system in prostatectomy specimens following receipt of neoadjuvant therapy has been considered inaccurate. However, with continuing expansion of novel therapeutics, it is important to understand whether the Gleason system can be effectively utilized in this setting. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Gleason grading system to predict systemic progression among prostatectomy specimens treated with neoadjuvant hormone therapy (NHT). METHODS: This was a single-institution retrospective analysis from 1987 to 2009 of 13,427 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) without NHT and 1148 patients with NHT. NHT consisted of leuprolide alone (n = 415), antiandrogen therapy alone (n = 400) and combined treatment (n = 333). Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated 15-year systemic progression-free survival among NHT and non-NHT patients. Cox proportional hazard regression models estimated risk of systemic progression following RP according to NHT use and nonuse. RESULTS: Median duration of NHT was 3 months (interquartile range (IQR) 2-4) whereas median follow-up after RP was 8.3 years (IQR 5-10.8). NHT patients were more likely to be D'Amico high risk, have locally advanced pathologic T stage (≥ pT3), pathologic Gleason scores (GS) of 8-10 and lymph node involvement (P<0.0001 for all). NHT use was associated with lower rates of positive surgical margins, more downgrading to pT0 and less GS upgrading from biopsy (P ≤ 0.001 for all). GS could not be assigned to only 3% of NHT patients. On multivariate analysis, pathologic GS remained a predictor of systemic progression (SP) following NHT (hazard ratio (HR) 1.6, P = 0.005), but the association was less strong compared with non-NHT patients (HR 2.9, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Utilization of the Gleason system appears feasible among hormonally pretreated prostatectomy specimens and shows continued prognostication for systemic progression. Confirmatory investigations are needed before the Gleason system can be reliably applied in the setting of neoadjuvant therapy.

The association of tumor volume with mortality following radical prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding the prognostic significance of tumor volume (TV) in prostate cancer are conflicting. Herein, we evaluated the association of TV with prostate cancer mortality following radical prostatectomy (RP), and assessed the additive prognostic value of TV to an established predictive model. METHODS: We identified 13,687 patients who underwent RP without preoperative therapy between 1987 and 2009. TV was estimated using the prolate ellipsoid formula. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the association of TV with mortality. The ability of TV to enhance the performance of an established prognostic model (Mayo Clinic GPSM (Gleason, PSA, seminal vesicle and margin status) score) was assessed using the c-index. RESULTS: Median TV was 1.57 cm(3) (interquartile range (IQR) 0.48-4.19). Increasing TV was associated with significantly higher risks of seminal vesicle invasion (hazard ratio (HR) 1.58; P<0.0001), positive surgical margins (HR 1.28; P<0.0001) and lymph node involvement (HR 1.26; P<0.0001). Median postoperative follow-up was 9.4 years (IQR 5.0-14.5). Patient grouping into quartiles according to TV resulted in a significant stratification of outcome, as the 15-year cancer-specific survival by TV quartile was 99%, 98%, 95% and 88%, respectively (P<0.0001). Moreover, on multivariate analysis, greater TV remained associated with significantly increased risks of systemic progression (HR 1.27; P<0.0001), death from prostate cancer (HR 1.29; P<0.0001) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.05; P<0.0001). Meanwhile, addition of TV to the GPSM score increased the c-index for the model's prediction of prostate cancer mortality from 0.803 to 0.822. CONCLUSIONS: TV is associated with survival following RP, and enhances, although modestly, the performance of an established prediction model. As such, TV warrants continued assessment in risk stratification tools.

A genomic classifier predicting metastatic disease progression in men with biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Due to their varied outcomes, men with biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy (RP) present a management dilemma. Here, we evaluate Decipher, a genomic classifier (GC), for its ability to predict metastasis following BCR. METHODS: The study population included 85 clinically high-risk patients who developed BCR after RP. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, weighted Cox proportional hazard models and decision curves were used to compare GC scores to Gleason score (GS), PSA doubling time (PSAdT), time to BCR (ttBCR), the Stephenson nomogram and CAPRA-S for predicting metastatic disease progression. All tests were two-sided with a type I error probability of 5%. RESULTS: GC scores stratified men with BCR into those who would or would not develop metastasis (8% of patients with low versus 40% with high scores developed metastasis, P<0.001). The area under the curve for predicting metastasis after BCR was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.76-0.86) for GC, compared to GS 0.64 (0.58-0.70), PSAdT 0.69 (0.61-0.77) and ttBCR 0.52 (0.46-0.59). Decision curve analysis showed that GC scores had a higher overall net benefit compared to models based solely on clinicopathologic features. In multivariable modeling with clinicopathologic variables, GC score was the only significant predictor of metastasis (P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: When compared to clinicopathologic variables, GC better predicted metastatic progression among this cohort of men with BCR following RP. While confirmatory studies are needed, these results suggest that use of GC may allow for better selection of men requiring earlier initiation of treatment at the time of BCR.

Use of tumor dynamics to clarify the observed variability among biochemical recurrence nomograms for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Nomograms for biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PC) after radical prostatectomy can yield very different prognoses for individual patients. Since the nomograms are optimized on different cohorts, the variations may be due to differences in patient risk-factor distributions. In addition, the nomograms assign different relative scores to the same PC risk factors and rarely stratify for tumor growth rate. METHODS: We compared BCR-free probabilities from the GPSM model with a cell kinetics (CK) model that uses the individual's tumor state and growth rate. We first created a cohort of 143 patients that reproduced the GPSM patient distribution in Gleason score, Prostate specific antigen (PSA), Seminal vesicle involvement and Margin status since they form the GPSM score. We then performed 143 CK calculations to determine BCR-free probabilities for comparison with the GPSM results for all scores and with four other prominent nomograms for a high-risk patient. RESULTS: The BCR-free probabilities from the CK model agree within 10% with those from the GPSM study for all scores once the CK model parameters are stratified in terms of the GPSM risk factors and the PSA doubling time (PSADT). However, the probabilities from widely used nomograms vary significantly. CONCLUSIONS: The CK model reproduces the observed GPSM BCR-free probabilities with a broad stratification of model parameters for PC risk factors and can thus be used to describe PC progression for individual patients. The analysis suggests that nomograms should stratify for PSADT to be predictive.

Clinicopathological predictors of systemic progression and prostate cancer mortality in patients with a positive surgical margin at radical prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Although a positive surgical margin (PSM) at radical prostatectomy (RRP) has been consistently linked to an increased risk of biochemical recurrence, the impact of margin status on patient survival continues to be debated. We evaluated long-term outcomes of patients with a PSM at RRP and determined predictors of systemic progression (SP) and mortality in these men. METHODS: We reviewed our institutional registry of 16,749 patients who underwent RRP between 1990 and 2008 to identify 2895 patients with a PSM. Median follow-up was 10.6 years. Postoperative survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze clinicopathological variables associated with SP and death from prostate cancer. RESULTS: A 15-year SP-free and cancer-specific survival was 90 and 93%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, higher tumor volume, increased pathological Gleason score and advanced pathological tumor stage were associated with significantly increased risks of SP and death from prostate cancer, whereas number and location of PSM did not predict mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The risks of SP and prostate cancer death in patients with a PSM remain low on long-term follow-up. Tumor variables are the primary determinants of cancer death. These results should be considered when evaluating patients with a PSM for adjuvant therapy.

Referral and ascertainment bias in patients with synchronous and metachronous endometrial malignancy.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the frequency in patients with endometrial cancer of other malignancies and the influence of referral and ascertainment biases on these associations. Analysis of 1,028 local and referred patients who had a hysterectomy for endometrial cancer was based on residence at the time of diagnosis. Altogether, 208 patients had a history of another malignancy, most frequently breast, colon, and ovary. At the time of surgery for endometrial cancer, the prevalence of lymphoma and breast and ovarian cancers was greater than expected although the higher prevalence of lymphoma was limited to referred patients. During follow-up after hysterectomy, the incidence of lung cancer was lower than expected, whereas the incidence of lymphoma was higher. Breast, colorectal, and bladder cancers were more common than expected although this finding was limited to local patients. We concluded that results of epidemiologic studies from tertiary care centers may be misleading if they do not account for referral and ascertainment biases.

Glomerular filtration rate estimated by cystatin C among different clinical presentations.

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimates from serum creatinine has not been generalizable across all populations. Cystatin C has been proposed as an alternative marker for estimating GFR. The objective of this study was to compare cystatin C with serum creatinine for estimating GFR among different clinical presentations. Cystatin C and serum creatinine levels were obtained from adult patients (n=460) during an evaluation that included a GFR measurement by iothalamate clearance. Medical records were abstracted for clinical presentation (healthy, native chronic kidney disease or transplant recipient) at the time of GFR measurement. GFR was modeled using the following variables: cystatin C (or serum creatinine), age, gender and clinical presentation. The relationship between cystatin C and GFR differed across clinical presentations. At the same cystatin C level, GFR was 19% higher in transplant recipients than in patients with native kidney disease (P<0.001). The association between cystatin C and GFR was stronger among native kidney disease patients than in healthy persons (P<0.001 for statistical interaction). Thus, a cystatin C equation was derived using only patients with native kidney disease (n=204). The correlation with GFR (r(2)=0.853) was slightly higher than a serum creatinine equation using the same sample (r(2)=0.827), the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation (r(2)=0.825) or the Cockcroft-Gault equation (r(2)=0.796). Averaged estimates between cystatin C and serum creatinine equations further improved correlation (r(2)=0.891). Cystatin C should not be interpreted as purely a marker of GFR. Other factors, possibly inflammation or immunosuppression therapy, affect cystatin C levels. While recognizing this limitation, cystatin C may improve GFR estimates in chronic kidney disease patients.

Incidence of physician-diagnosed interstitial cystitis in Olmsted County: a community-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain community-based information about the incidence of interstitial cystitis, a chronic disabling condition of the bladder where knowledge is limited because there are no definitive diagnostic criteria. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All residents of Olmsted County, MN, USA who had received a physician-assigned diagnosis of interstitial cystitis between 1976 and 1996 were identified through the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The clinical findings at diagnosis and during the follow-up were ascertained from the community medical records for each study subject. RESULTS: In all, 16 women and four men received a diagnosis of interstitial cystitis during the study period. The overall age- and sex-adjusted (95% confidence interval) incidence rate was 1.1 (0.6-1.5) per 100 000 population. The age-adjusted incidence rates were 1.6 per 100 000 in women and 0.6 per 100 000 in men (P = 0.04). The median (range) age at initial diagnosis was 44.5 (27-76) years in women and 71.5 (23-79) years in men (P = 0.26). The median number of episodes of care-seeking for symptoms before the diagnosis was one for women and 4.5 for men (P = 0.03). The median duration from the onset of symptoms until the first diagnosis was 0.06 and 2.2 years in women and men, respectively (P = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the incidence of interstitial cystitis in the community is extremely low. Although the gender difference may be real, the trend toward a later diagnosis in men than in women suggests a potential for missed diagnosis in men. This might explain some of the gender difference in the incidence of interstitial cystitis in men and women.

Long-term results of treatment for ureteroenteric strictures.

OBJECTIVES: To review the long-term outcome for ureteroenteric stricture treatment. METHODS: The ileal conduit diversions that formed ureteroenteric strictures from 1966 to 1999 were reviewed. The strictures were diagnosed radiographically, and malignancy was excluded. The treatment, location, length, diameter, and timing of stricture development after conduit creation was evaluated and compared regarding the time until stricture recurrence (failure). Success was defined as symptomatic improvement and radiologic evidence of patency. RESULTS: Forty patients, after exclusions, returned for ureteroenteric stricture repair, comprising 79 procedures (27 open repairs and 52 balloon dilations). The open repair had a success rate at 1, 2, and 3 years of 92%, 87%, and 76%, respectively. Seven of the open cases were preceded by failed dilations. Balloon dilation had a success rate at 1, 2, and 3 years of 15%, 15%, and 5%, respectively (P = 0.0001 versus open). Similar patency results for open versus balloon (P = 0.0001) were noted with analysis restricted to each patient's first stricture repair. Strictures greater than 1.0 cm were more likely to recur (P = 0.03). All strictures forming within 6 months of the conduit creation were treated with dilation and failed within 1 year. Of note, 11 of the 40 patients were found to have less than 25% renal function on the strictured side. CONCLUSIONS: Open repair for ureteroenteric strictures offers excellent long-term patency (76% at 3 years, P = 0.0001). On review, balloon dilation appeared to have less successful patency rates and was often followed by open repair after failure. Patients with a history of anastomotic strictures should be closely monitored to avoid renal damage and failure.

A prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of orbital radiotherapy for Graves' ophthalmopathy.

CONTEXT: Although widely used for more than 85 years, the efficacy of radiotherapy for Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) has not been established convincingly. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of radiotherapy for GO. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, internally controlled, double-blind clinical trial in a tertiary care academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: The patients were ethnically diverse males and females over age 30 seen in a referral practice. The patients had moderate, symptomatic Graves' ophthalmopathy (mean clinical activity score, 6.2) but no optic neuropathy, diabetes, recent steroid treatment, previous decompression, or muscle surgery. Forty-two of 53 consecutive patients were enrolled after giving informed consent and fulfilling study entry criteria. Eleven eligible patients declined to participate because of inconvenience, desire for alternative therapy, or concern about radiation. INTERVENTION: One randomly selected orbit was treated with 20 Gy of external beam therapy; sham therapy was given to the other side. Six months later, the therapies were reversed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Every 3 months for 1 year, we measured the volume of extraocular muscle and fat, proptosis, range of extraocular muscle motion, area of diplopia fields, and lid fissure width. Effective treatment for GO will modify one or more of these parameters. RESULTS: No clinically or statistically significant difference between the treated and untreated orbit was observed in any of the main outcome measures at 6 months. At 12 months, muscle volume and proptosis improved slightly more in the orbit that was treated first. CONCLUSIONS: In this group of patients, representative of those for whom radiotherapy is frequently recommended, we were unable to demonstrate any beneficial therapeutic effect. The slight improvement noted in both orbits at 12 months may be the result of natural remission or of radiotherapy, but the changes are of marginal clinical significance.

PSA doubling time as a predictor of clinical progression after biochemical failure following radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the clinical progression of disease in men who have undergone prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer and have postoperative biochemical failure (elevated prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level) and to identify predictors of clinical disease progression, including the possible effect of PSA doubling time (PSADT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 1987 and 1993, 2809 patients underwent radical retropubic prostatectomy for clinically localized (< or =T2) disease. In our database, all patients with postoperative biochemical failure (PSA level > or =0.4 ng/mL) were identified. The PSADT was estimated using log linear regression on all PSA values (excluding those values determined after administration of hormonal therapy) within 15 months after biochemical failure. All patients had regular PSA measurements from the time of surgery through the follow-up period. Systemic progression (SP) was defined as evidence of metastatic disease on a bone scan. Local recurrence (LR) was defined on the basis of digital rectal examination, transrectal ultrasonography, and biopsy. The SP-free survival and LR/SP-free survival (survival free of both LR and SP) after biochemical failure was estimated with use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Patients with prostate cancer treatment after biochemical failure had their follow-up censored from this study at the time of treatment. RESULTS: Postoperative biochemical failure occurred in 879 men (31%). The mean follow-up from time of biochemical failure was 4.7 years (range, 0.5-11 years). The mean time to biochemical failure was 2.9 years (median, 2.4 years). The overall mean SP-free survival from time of biochemical failure was 94% and 91% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. The mean LR/SP-free survival was 64% and 53% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. By using univariate analysis on the 587 patients with PSADT data, significant risk factors for SP were PSADT (P<.001) and pathologic Gleason score (P=.005); for LR/SP, significant risk factors included PSADT (P<.001) and pathologic Gleason score (P<.001). In multivariate Cox models analysis, only PSADT remained a significant risk factor for both SP and LR/SP (P<.001). Mean 5-year SP-free survival was 99%, 95%, 93%, and 64% for patients with PSADT of 10 years or longer, 1.0 to 9.9 years, 0.5 to 0.9 year, and less than 0.5 year, respectively; the respective mean LR/SP-free survivals were 87%, 62%, 46%, and 38%. The percentage of patients with PSADT of less than 0.5 year was considerably higher if the type of first clinical event was SP (48%) compared with LR (18%) (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: For patients who have undergone radical prostatectomy, a rising PSA level suggests evidence of residual or recurrent prostate cancer. Many men remain free of clinical disease for an extended time after biochemical failure following radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. The PSADT appears to be an important predictor of SP and also of any clinical progression (local or systemic). These data may be useful when counseling men regarding the timing of adjuvant therapies.

Outcomes for men with clinically nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma managed with radical prostactectomy, external beam radiotherapy, or expectant management: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: With a lack of data from randomized trials, the optimal management of men with nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma is controversial. The authors sought to define the outcomes of three common strategies for managing patients with nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma: expectant management, radiotherapy, and radical prostatectomy. METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study with standardized collection of key prognostic data, including centralized assignment of Gleason grades from original biopsy specimens. Participants included all Connecticut hospitals (the expectant management cohort) and three academic medical centers in other states (the radiotherapy and surgery cohorts). Two thousand three hundred eleven consecutive men ages 55-74 years who were diagnosed during 1971-1984 with nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma and were treated at the participating sites were included. RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier estimates with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of overall survival at 10 years for each cohort were as follows: expectant management cohort, 42% of patients (95% CI, 38-46%); radiotherapy cohort, 52% of patients (95% CI, 46-58%); and radical prostatectomy cohort, 69% of patients (95% CI, 67-71%); for disease specific mortality, the estimates were as follows: expectant management cohort, 75% of patients (95% CI, 71-79%); radiotherapy cohort, 67% of patients (95% CI, 61-73%); and radical prostatectomy cohort, 86% of patients (95% CI, 84-88%). There were large differences in distributions of important prognostic factors among men in the different treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide precise estimates of the outcomes of patients who have been treated with different modalities for nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma in the recent past. Direct comparisons of outcomes between treatment groups are inadvisable because of the different characteristics of patients who select these alternative management strategies.

Contemporary identification of patients at high risk of early prostate cancer recurrence after radical retropubic prostatectomy.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model that will identify a contemporary cohort of patients at high risk of early prostate cancer recurrence (greater than 50% at 36 months) after radical retropubic prostatectomy for clinically localized disease. Data from this model will provide important information for patient selection and the design of prospective randomized trials of adjuvant therapies. METHODS: Proportional hazards regression analysis was applied to two patient cohorts to develop and cross-validate a multifactorial predictive model to identify men with the highest risk of early prostate cancer recurrence. The model and validation cohorts contained 904 and 901 men, respectively, who underwent radical retropubic prostatectomy at Johns Hopkins Hospital. This model was then externally validated using a cohort of patients from the Mayo Clinic. RESULTS: A model for weighted risk of recurrence was developed: R(W)'=lymph node involvement (0/1)x1.43+surgical margin status (0/1)x1.15+modified Gleason score (0 to 4)x0.71+seminal vesicle involvement (0/1)x0.51. Men with an R(W)' greater than 2.84 (9%) demonstrated a 50% biochemical recurrence rate (prostrate-specific antigen level greater than 0.2 ng/mL) at 3 years and thus were placed in the high-risk group. Kaplan-Meier analyses of biochemical recurrence-free survival demonstrated rapid deviation of the curves based on the R(W)'. This model was cross-validated in the second group of patients and performed with similar results. Furthermore, similar trends were apparent when the model was externally validated on patients treated at the Mayo Clinic. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model that successfully stratifies patients on the basis of their risk of early prostate cancer recurrence.

Defining prostate specific antigen progression after radical prostatectomy: what is the most appropriate cut point?

PURPOSE: The most appropriate definition of biochemical progression after radical prostatectomy and radiation therapy is uncertain. We analyzed the effect of using various prostate specific antigen (PSA) end point definitions for defining biochemical progression after radical prostatectomy and attempted to determine the best PSA cut point to use. Aspects of the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) definition of biochemical failure after radiation therapy are also analyzed in our radical prostatectomy cases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 2,782 men with clinically localized prostate cancer (cT1-T2) who had undergone radical prostatectomy between 1987 and 1993 were reviewed. All patients had regular PSA determinations from surgery through followup. Analysis was limited to patients who did not receive adjuvant treatment within 90 days of radical prostatectomy. Biochemical, PSA progression-free percent after radical prostatectomy was determined by the Kaplan-Meier method using several PSA cut points, including 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 ng./ml. or greater, as well as 0.4 ng./ml. or greater and increasing. Progression-free percent was also assessed using the ASTRO definition, which is 3 increases in PSA. To determine which PSA level was most appropriate to define progression after radical prostatectomy, the percentage of patients with a continued PSA increase after reaching each cut point was determined. The relationship between the maximum PSA within 3 years of surgery and subsequent development of clinical disease was also assessed. RESULTS: Progression-free percent was dependent on the PSA cut point used. Biochemical progression-free percentages for cut points 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 ng./ml. or greater were 62%, 72%, 76% and 78% at 5 years, and 43%, 54%, 59% and 61% at 10 years, respectively. A subsequent increase in PSA was noted in 49%, 62% and 72% of patients who had PSA 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 ng./ml., respectively. Subsequent clinical progression (local or systemic) was directly related to the maximum PSA attained within 3 years of radical prostatectomy (p=0.0001). Progression-free percent for definitions requiring multiple increases in PSA were dependent on when the event was said to occur. Backdating of events at or before the first PSA (ASTRO definition) resulted in poorer, short-term progression-free percent (78% at 5 years), with little apparent likelihood of long-term failure (78% at 10 years). Coding the event at the last PSA increase when all event criteria had been met resulted in more realistic progression-free percent estimates (85% at 5 and 59% at 10 years). CONCLUSIONS: Biochemical, PSA progression rates vary markedly depending on the method used to define PSA failure. Methods that require multiple increasing PSA values, for example the ASTRO definition, give misleading results, especially if the event time is backdated. Standards for defining PSA progression would allow more consistent and comparable progression estimates after radical prostatectomy. PSA 0.4 ng./ml. or greater may be the most appropriate cut point to use since a significant number of patients with lower PSA do not have a continued increase in it.

Risk of prostate carcinoma death in patients with lymph node metastasis.

BACKGROUND: The presence of lymph node metastasis is a poor prognostic sign for patients with prostate carcinoma. Results of published reports on survival among patients with lymph node metastasis are difficult to assess because of treatment selections. The extent to which lymph node status will have an impact on a patient's survival is uncertain. METHODS: The authors analyzed 3463 consecutive Mayo Clinic patients who underwent radical prostatectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy for prostate carcinoma between 1987 and 1993. Of these patients, 322 had lymph node metastasis at the time of surgery, and 297 lymph node positive patients also received adjuvant hormonal therapy within 90 days of surgery. The progression free rate and the cancer specific survival rate were used as outcome endpoints in univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. The median follow-up was 6.3 years. Progression was defined by elevation of serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) > or = 0.4 ng/mL after surgery, development of local recurrence, or distant metastasis documented by biopsy or radiographic examination. RESULTS: The 5-year and 10-year progression free survival rates (+/- standard error [SE]) for patients with lymph node metastasis were 74% +/- 2% and 64% +/- 3%, respectively, compared with 77% +/- 1% and 59% +/- 2%, respectively, for patients without lymph node metastasis. The 5-year and 10-year cancer specific survival rates were 94% +/- 1% and 83% +/- 4%, respectively, compared with 99% +/- 0.1% and 97% +/- 0.5%, respectively, for patients without lymph node metastasis. Among patients with a single lymph node metastasis, the 5-year and 10-year cancer specific survival rates were 99% +/- 1% and 94% +/- 3%, respectively. After adjustment for extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, Gleason grade, surgical margins, DNA ploidy, preoperative serum PSA concentration, and adjuvant therapy, the hazard ratio for death from prostate carcinoma among patients with a single lymph node metastasis compared with patients who were without lymph node metastasis was 1.5 (95% confidence interval, 0.5-5.0; P = 0.478), whereas the hazard ratio for death from prostate carcinoma was 6.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002) for those with two positive lymph nodes and 4.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.4-13.0; P = 0.009) for those with three or more positive lymph nodes. There was no significant difference in the progression free survival rate among patients with or without lymph node metastasis in multivariate analysis after controlling for all relevant variables, including treatments (hazard ratio,1.0; 95% CI, 0.7-1.3; P = 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with prostate carcinoma who have multiple regional lymph node metastases had increased risk of death from disease, whereas patients with single lymph node involvement appeared to have a more favorable prognosis after radical prostatectomy and immediate adjuvant hormonal therapy. Excellent local disease control was achieved by using combined surgery and adjuvant hormonal therapy in patients with positive lymph nodes.

Use of Gleason score, prostate specific antigen, seminal vesicle and margin status to predict biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: We determine the importance of clinical and pathological variables for predicting biochemical progression in patients after surgery for specimen confined prostate cancer. We developed a simple scoring algorithm for biochemical progression in node negative cases and tested the algorithm performance on an independent group. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our study included 2,518 patients with pT2N0 or pT3N0 disease treated between 1990 and 1993. Gleason score, preoperative prostate specific antigen (PSA), margin status, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle involvement, DNA ploidy and adjuvant treatment were primary variables analyzed univariately. The Cox proportional hazards model was used on 2,000 randomly selected patients to develop a multivariate scoring algorithm for the aforementioned factors to predict biochemical progression-free survival. The final model included Gleason score, preoperative PSA, margin status, seminal vesicle involvement and adjuvant treatment. The prognostic score derived from this model was validated by applying it to the remaining 518 patients. Harrell's measure of concordance (C) was used to compare competing models. RESULTS: For patients who did not receive adjuvant therapy the derived score based on the Cox model coefficient was Gleason +1 (PSA 4 to 10), +2 (PSA 10.1 to 20), +3 (PSA greater than 20), +2 (positive seminal vesicle) and +2 (positive margin). The score was reduced by 4 if adjuvant hormonal therapy was given and by 2 for only adjuvant radiotherapy. The 5-year progression-free survival was 94% for scores less than 5, 60% for 10 and 32% for greater than 12 (C = 0. 718). Applying the score to the independent validation data set (518) resulted in 5-year progression-free survival of 96% for scores less than 5, 53% for 10 and 30% for greater than 12 (C = 0.759). CONCLUSIONS: Progression-free survival determined by the model score group identified a wide range of risk levels for patients with specimen confined prostate cancer. This simple predictive model allows identification of patients at high risk for cancer progression with specimen confined disease who may be targeted for closer surveillance and adjuvant therapy, while those at lower risk may be simply observed.

Digital rectal examination and prostate-specific antigen abnormalities at the time of prostate biopsy and biopsy outcomes, 1980 to 1997.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the temporal trends in the prevalence of pre-biopsy abnormalities in digital rectal examination (DRE) findings, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, and cancer detection rates by abnormality in all men from the community who had a prostate biopsy. METHODS: All Olmsted County, Minnesota residents who had their first prostate biopsy performed between January 1980 and December 1997 were identified (n = 1729). The complete medical records of these men were reviewed to determine the clinical findings at the time of the biopsy and the biopsy outcome. RESULTS: The prevalence of an abnormal DRE decreased from 69% in 1980 to 1986 to 45% in 1993 to 1997 (P <0.001). The prevalence of an isolated elevated PSA level (normal DRE) increased from 28% in 1987 to 1992 to 42% in 1993 to 1997 (P <0.001). In men diagnosed with cancer, 55% had an abnormal DRE in 1993 to 1997 (P <0.001). Prostate cancer was detected in 471 (37%) of 1280 men with an abnormal DRE or elevated PSA level noted within 6 weeks of the biopsy. The positive predictive value for prostate cancer was 61% (229 of 373) in men with an abnormal DRE and elevated PSA, 34% (166 of 494) in men with an elevated PSA only, and 18% (60 of 327) in men with an abnormal DRE only. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of an abnormal DRE at the time of biopsy has declined and that of an isolated elevated PSA has increased. However, nearly 40% of men with abnormalities in both PSA and DRE at the time of biopsy had a negative biopsy for prostate cancer. An increase in both the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests may further enhance the early detection of prostate cancer and potentially decrease the high negative biopsy rate.

Validation of Partin tables for predicting pathological stage of clinically localized prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: The accurate prediction of pathological stage of prostate cancer using preoperative factors is a critical aspect of treatment. In 1997 Partin et al published tables predicting pathological stage using clinical stage, Gleason score and prostate specific antigen (PSA). We tested the validity of the Partin tables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1990 to 1996 inclusively 5,780 patients underwent bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy and radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer at the Mayo Clinic. However, only 2,475 of these patients met all inclusion criteria of no preoperative treatment, known biopsy Gleason score, available preoperative PSA done either before biopsy or more than 28 days after biopsy and clinical stage T1, T2 or T3a. Among the 2,475 patients 15 had positive lymph nodes and planned prostatectomy was abandoned. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve area, observed and predicted Partin rates of each pathological stage, and positive and negative predictive values were used to compare the Mayo study to the Partin tables. RESULTS: The distribution of pathological stage was organ confined in 67% of Mayo cases versus 48% in the Partin study, extracapsular without seminal vesicle or node involvement in 18% versus 40%, seminal vesicle involvement without nodes in 9% versus 7% and were positive nodes in 6% versus 5%. Using the predicted probabilities of Partin et al the ROC curve area for predicted node positive disease was 0.84 for Mayo cases compared to an estimated 0. 82 in the Partin series. The ROC curve area for predicting organ confined cancer was 0.76 for the Mayo Clinic compared to an estimated 0.73 for the Partin series. The observed rates of node positive disease were similar to those predicted (Partin) based on clinical stage, PSA and Gleason score. For organ confined disease Mayo rates were consistently higher than those predicted from the Partin series using a cut point of 0.50 or greater. Positive and negative predictive values were 0.83 and 0.49 versus 0.63 and 0.70 for the Mayo Clinic and Partin series. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides strong evidence that sensitivity and specificity of the Partin tables for external clinical sites are similar to what was reported.

Lung cancer mortality in the Mayo Lung Project: impact of extended follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The Mayo Lung Project (MLP) was a randomized, controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening that was conducted in 9211 male smokers between 1971 and 1983. The intervention arm was offered chest x-ray and sputum cytology every 4 months for 6 years; the usual-care arm was advised at trial entry to receive the same tests annually. No lung cancer mortality benefit was evident at the end of the study. We have extended follow-up through 1996. METHODS: A National Death Index-PLUS search was used to assign vital status and date and cause of death for 6523 participants with unknown information. The median survival for lung cancer patients diagnosed before July 1, 1983, was calculated by use of Kaplan-Meier estimates. Survival curves were compared with the log-rank test. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 20.5 years. Lung cancer mortality was 4.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.9-4.9) deaths per 1000 person-years in the intervention arm and 3.9 (95% CI = 3.5-4.4) in the usual-care arm (two-sided P: for difference =.09). For participants diagnosed with lung cancer before July 1, 1983, survival was better in the intervention arm (two-sided P: =.0039). The median survival for patients with resected early-stage disease was 16.0 years in the intervention arm versus 5.0 years in the usual-care arm. CONCLUSIONS: Extended follow-up of MLP participants did not reveal a lung cancer mortality reduction for the intervention arm. Similar mortality but better survival for individuals in the intervention arm indicates that some lesions with limited clinical relevance may have been identified in the intervention arm.

Preoperative prediction of surgical margin status in patients with prostate cancer treated by radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: We sought to determine the preoperative factors associated with surgical margin status in patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study group consisted of 339 patients who were treated by radical retropubic prostatectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy at the Mayo Clinic. None received preoperative adjuvant therapy. The mean age at the time of surgery was 66 years (range, 45 to 79 years). All specimens were totally embedded and whole-mounted. Positive surgical margin was defined as the presence of cancer cells at the inked margins. Numerous pathologic characteristics in needle biopsies and preoperative clinical findings were analyzed. RESULTS: The overall margin positivity rate was 24%. In univariate analysis, preoperative serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, perineural invasion, percentage of cancer in the biopsy specimens, and number and percentage of biopsy cores involved by cancer were all associated with positive surgical margins. In multivariate analysis, preoperative serum PSA level (odds ratio for a doubling of PSA levels, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 2.4; P <.001) and percentage of cancer in the biopsy specimens (odds ratio for a 10% increase, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 1.4; P <.001) were predictive of margin status in radical prostatectomy. With use of preoperative serum PSA level and percentage of cancer in the biopsy as predictors of surgical margins, the overall accuracy as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. CONCLUSION: Preoperative serum PSA level and percentage of cancer in the biopsy specimens were independently associated with surgical margin status in patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer. The combination of these two factors provides a high level of predictive accuracy for margin status.