Association of Pathologic Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer With Long-Term Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis.

IMPORTANCE: The expense and lengthy follow-up periods for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of adjuvant systemic therapy in breast cancer make them impractical and even impossible to conduct. Randomized clinical trials of neoadjuvant systemic therapy for breast cancer may help resolve this dilemma. OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of pathologic complete response (pCR) for neoadjuvant drug development in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2 [also referred to as ERBB2])-positive breast cancer. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), CENTRAL (Wiley), and Northern Light Life Sciences Conference Abstracts (Ovid) in December 2014. Searches combined terms for "breast cancer" and "neoadjuvant therapy," with no limit on publication date. STUDY SELECTION: Cohort studies and RCTs were selected that met following criteria: stages I to III HER2-positive breast cancer, neoadjuvant therapy, and reports of both pCR and an event-free survival (EFS)-type outcome. The initial search identified 2614 publications, of which 38 studies met the selection criteria. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two authors independently screened each study for inclusion and extracted the data. Data were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Event-free survival and overall survival (OS) hazard ratios (HRs) for pCR vs non-pCR. For RCTs, main outcome measures were treatment benefits in pCR and the corresponding treatment HRs for EFS and OS. RESULTS: A total of 36 studies with EFS by pCR status representing 5768 patients with HER2-positive breast cancer were included in the patient-level analysis. Overall, the improvement in EFS for pCR vs non-pCR was substantial: HR, 0.37 (95% probability interval [PI], 0.32-0.43). This association was greater for patients with hormone receptor-negative disease (HR, 0.29 [95% PI, 0.24-0.36]) than hormone receptor-positive disease (HR, 0.52 [95% PI, 0.40-0.66]). In RCTs, the R2 correlations between odds ratios for pCR and HRs were 0.63 for EFS and 0.29 for OS. Based on absolute treatment improvements in pCR rate, predicted HRs for EFS for RCTs were concordant with observed HRs. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Pathologic complete response in HER2-positive breast cancer is associated with substantially longer times to recurrence and death. This relationship is maintained in RCTs. For any particular new therapy the relationship between pCR and survival may differ. Quantifying the importance of pCR is necessary for designing efficient clinical trials, which should adapt to the relationship between pCR and survival for the therapy under investigation.

Bayesian dose escalation in oncology with sharing of information between patient populations.

We present a Phase I dose escalation trial design based on a modified continual reassessment method that allows for sharing of information between populations. We describe our approach in the context of a trial for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) that is currently being conducted. The ALL trial enrolls both adult and pediatric patient populations. Dose escalation and the determination of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) are performed separately for each population, but to increase efficiency, information about the dose-toxicity curve is shared. Dose escalation rules allow pediatric patients to skip dose levels provided safety has been shown in adults and the dose level is estimated to be safe for pediatric patients. Trial objectives are to efficiently determine the MTD for each population and to minimize the number of pediatric patients required for dose escalation.

Not too big, not too small: a goldilocks approach to sample size selection.

We present a Bayesian adaptive design for a confirmatory trial to select a trial's sample size based on accumulating data. During accrual, frequent sample size selection analyses are made and predictive probabilities are used to determine whether the current sample size is sufficient or whether continuing accrual would be futile. The algorithm explicitly accounts for complete follow-up of all patients before the primary analysis is conducted. We refer to this as a Goldilocks trial design, as it is constantly asking the question, "Is the sample size too big, too small, or just right?" We describe the adaptive sample size algorithm, describe how the design parameters should be chosen, and show examples for dichotomous and time-to-event endpoints.

Predicting clinical trial results based on announcements of interim analyses.

BACKGROUND: Announcements of interim analyses of a clinical trial convey information about the results beyond the trial's Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). The amount of information conveyed may be minimal, but the fact that none of the trial's stopping boundaries has been crossed implies that the experimental therapy is neither extremely effective nor hopeless. Predicting success of the ongoing trial is of interest to the trial's sponsor, the medical community, pharmaceutical companies, and investors. We determine the probability of trial success by quantifying only the publicly available information from interim analyses of an ongoing trial. We illustrate our method in the context of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) trial, C-08. METHODS: We simulated trials based on the specifics of the NSABP C-08 protocol that were publicly available. We quantified the uncertainty around the treatment effect using prior weights for the various possibilities in light of other colon cancer studies and other studies of the investigational agent, bevacizumab. We considered alternative prior distributions. RESULTS: Subsequent to the trial's third interim analysis, our predictive probabilities were: that the trial would eventually be successful, 48.0%; would stop for futility, 7.4%; and would continue to completion without statistical significance, 44.5%. The actual trial continued to completion without statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Announcements of interim analyses provide information outside the DSMB's sphere of confidentiality. This information is potentially helpful to clinical trial prognosticators. 'Information leakage' from standard interim analyses such as in NSABP C-08 is conventionally viewed as acceptable even though it may be quite revealing. Whether leakage from more aggressive types of adaptations is acceptable should be assessed at the design stage.

Bayesian hierarchical modeling of patient subpopulations: efficient designs of Phase II oncology clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: In oncology, the treatment paradigm is shifting toward personalized medicine, where the goal is to match patients to the treatments most likely to deliver benefit. Treatment effects in various subpopulations may provide some information about treatment effects in other subpopulations. PURPOSE: We compare different approaches to Phase II trial design where a new treatment is being investigated in several groups of patients. We compare considering each group in an independent trial to a single trial with hierarchical modeling of the patient groups. METHODS: We assume four patient groups with different background response rates and simulate operating characteristics of three trial designs, Simon's Optimal Two-Stage design, a Bayesian adaptive design with frequent interim analyses, and a Bayesian adaptive design with frequent interim analyses and hierarchical modeling across patient groups. RESULTS: Simon's designs are based on 10% Type I and Type II error rates. The independent Bayesian designs are tuned to have similar error rates, but may have a slightly smaller mean sample size due to more frequent interim analyses. Under the null, the mean sample size is 2-4 patients smaller. A hierarchical model across patient groups can provide additional power and a further reduction in mean sample size. Under the null, the addition of the hierarchical model decreases the mean sample size an additional 4-7 patients in each group. Under the alternative hypothesis, power is increased to at least 98% in all groups. LIMITATIONS: Hierarchical borrowing can make finding a single group in which the treatment is promising, if there is only one, more difficult. In a scenario where the treatment is uninteresting in all but one group, power for that one group is reduced to 65%. When the drug appears promising in some groups and not in others, there is potential for borrowing to inflate the Type I error rate. CONCLUSIONS: The Bayesian hierarchical design is more likely to correctly conclude efficacy or futility than the other two designs in many scenarios. The Bayesian hierarchical design is a strong design for addressing possibly differential effects in different groups.

Age and associated fibrocystic changes are prognostically significant in patients with small node-negative (T1a,bN0) invasive breast cancer.

Some patients with small (≤1.0 cm) node-negative (T1a,bN0) invasive breast cancer (IBC) who undergo only local therapy experience recurrences. There is limited information on prognostic factors in these patients. We sought to identify prognostic factors associated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with T1a,bN0 IBC. Histologic sections from 273 T1a,bN0 IBC patients treated at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) between 1980 and 1999 were reviewed. Microscopic tumor size; multifocality; histologic type, grade of tumor; presence, type, grade of associated ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS); presence of fibrocystic changes (FCC) with/without atypia; and lymphovascular invasion were identified. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate DFS and OS. Median patient age was 58 years, median follow-up period was 10.8 years, and median tumor size was 0.8 cm. Multifocal disease was identified in 26% of cases. At 10 years, the DFS and OS rates were 91% and 88%, respectively. Twenty-one percent of patients had extensive (>50%), and 30% had grade 3 DCIS. Nonproliferative FCC and proliferative FCC with/without atypia were present in 80%, 36%, and 38% of patients, respectively. In univariate analysis, age at diagnosis (p < 0.0001), grade (p = 0.015), and percent (p = 0.046) of DCIS were significantly associated with DFS; presence of FCC was associated with longer DFS and OS. In multivariable models, age and presence of FCC remained significantly associated with survival. Age at diagnosis and associated FCC are significant factors in predicting recurrence in patients with T1a,bN0 IBC. Adjuvant systemic therapy should be discussed with and considered for young patients with T1a,bN0 IBC.

Addressing the incremental benefit of histamine dihydrochloride when added to interleukin-2 in treating acute myeloid leukemia: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

IL-2 has been investigated as maintenance therapy for patients with AML in five randomized trials. None has shown a statistically significant benefit. A randomized trial of HDC + IL-2 showed a statistically significant benefit for leukemia-free survival (LFS) in comparison with standard of care. Because HDC + IL-2 has not been randomized against IL-2 alone, the question remains as to whether and to what extent HDC + IL-2 is an improvement compared to IL-2 alone. This is a literature-based meta-analysis. We employ two versions of a Bayesian hierarchical model to compare HDC + IL-2 versus IL-2 alone on the basis of LFS in patients in remission from AML.

Daily oral sodium bicarbonate preserves glomerular filtration rate by slowing its decline in early hypertensive nephropathy.

In most patients with hypertensive nephropathy and low glomerular filtration rate (GFR), the kidney function progressively declines despite the adequate control of the hypertension with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition. Previously we found that 2 years of oral sodium citrate slowed GFR decline in patients whose estimated GFR (eGFR) was very low (mean 33 ml/min). This treatment also slowed GFR decline in an animal model of surgically reduced nephron mass. Here, we tested if daily oral sodium bicarbonate slowed GFR decline in patients with hypertensive nephropathy with reduced but relatively preserved eGFR (mean 75 ml/min) in a 5-year, prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, and blinded interventional study. Patients matched for age, ethnicity, albuminuria, and eGFR received daily placebo or equimolar sodium chloride or bicarbonate while maintaining antihypertensive regimens (including angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition) aiming for their recommended blood pressure targets. After 5 years, the rate of eGFR decline, estimated using plasma cystatin C, was slower and eGFR was higher in patients given sodium bicarbonate than in those given placebo or sodium chloride. Thus, our study shows that in hypertensive nephropathy, daily sodium bicarbonate is an effective kidney protective adjunct to blood pressure control along with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition.

High risk of recurrence for patients with breast cancer who have human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive, node-negative tumors 1 cm or smaller.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the risk of recurrence in women diagnosed with T1a and T1b, node-negative, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) -positive breast cancer. METHODS: We reviewed 965 T1a,bN0M0 breast cancers diagnosed at our institution between 1990 and 2002. Dedicated breast pathologists confirmed HER2 positivity if 3+ by immunohistochemistry or if it had a ratio of 2.0 or greater by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy or trastuzumab were excluded. Kaplan-Meier product was used to calculate recurrence-free survival (RFS) and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS). Cox proportional hazard models were fit to determine associations between HER2 status and survival after adjustment for patient and disease characteristics. Additionally, 350 breast cancers from two other institutions were used for validation. RESULTS: Ten percent of patients had HER2-positive tumors. At a median follow-up of 74 months, there were 72 recurrences. The 5-year RFS rates were 77.1% and 93.7% in patients with HER2-positive and HER2-negative tumors, respectively (P < .001). The 5-year DRFS rates were 86.4% and 97.2% in patients with HER2-positive and HER2-negative tumors, respectively (P < .001). In multivariate analysis, patients with HER2-positive tumors had higher risks of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 2.68; 95% CI, 1.44 to 5.0; P = .002) and distant recurrence (HR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.23 to 12.62; P < .001) than those with HER2-negative tumors. Patients with HER2-positive tumors had 5.09 times (95% CI, 2.56 to 10.14; P < .0001) the rate of recurrences and 7.81 times (95% CI, 3.17 to 19.22; P < .0001) the rate of distant recurrences at 5 years compared with patients who had hormone receptor-positive tumors. CONCLUSION: Patients with HER2-positive T1abN0M0 tumors have a significant risk of relapse and should be considered for systemic, anti-HER2, adjuvant therapy.

Detecting an overall survival benefit that is derived from progression-free survival.

BACKGROUND: Whether progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) is the more appropriate endpoint in clinical trials of metastatic cancer is controversial. In some disease and treatment settings, an improvement in PFS does not result in an improved OS. METHODS: We partitioned OS into two parts and expressed it as the sum of PFS and survival postprogression (SPP). We simulated randomized clinical trials with two arms that had respective medians for PFS of 6 and 9 months. We assumed no treatment difference in median SPP. We found the probability of a statistically significant benefit in OS for various median SPP and observed P values for PFS. We compared the sample sizes required for PFS vs OS for various median SPP. We compare our results with the literature regarding surrogacy of PFS for OS by use of the correlation between hazard ratios for PFS and OS. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: For a trial with observed P value for improvement in PFS of .001, there was a greater than 90% probability for statistical significance in OS if median SPP was 2 months but less than 20% if median SPP was 24 months. For a trial requiring 280 patients to detect a 3-month difference in PFS, 350 and 2440 patients, respectively, were required to have the same power for detecting a real difference in OS that is carried over from the 3-month benefit in PFS when the median SPP was 2 and 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing SPP is important in understanding treatment effects. For clinical trials with a PFS benefit, lack of statistical significance in OS does not imply lack of improvement in OS, especially for diseases with long median SPP. Although there may be no treatment effect on SPP, its variability so dilutes the OS comparison that statistical significance is likely lost. OS is a reasonable primary endpoint when median SPP is short but is too high a bar when median SPP is long, such as longer than 12 months.

Scientific writing training for academic physicians of diverse language backgrounds.

Research articles are the coin of the realm for anyone working in academia, and success or failure to publish determines a biomedical researcher's career path. At the same time, the dramatic increase in foreign faculty and trainees in U.S. academia, as well as in international scientific collaboration, adds another dimension to this developmental vacuum: limited English-language skills. Paradoxically, few programs exist to develop and support the skills needed to accomplish the vital task of writing English-language research articles, which does not come naturally to most. To better prepare all trainees for research careers, editors in the Department of Scientific Publications at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center created an in-depth training program that would target the writing skills gap effectively. Instruction focused on structure, rhetorical organization, and the conventions of biomedical publishing. More than 300 trainees have participated in 22 workshops. Results of a survey of 46 participants at 6 months to 2.5 years after workshop completion indicated that participants from all language backgrounds believed the course to have improved their writing (97.8% strongly agreed or agreed), made it easier to begin a manuscript (80.4%), and helped them to get published (56.8%), with nonnative speakers of English reporting somewhat greater perceived benefit than native English speakers. On the basis of these results, the authors conclude that researchers of varied linguistic backgrounds appreciate the need for, and benefit from, instruction in the conventions of scientific writing.

Accuracy of the BRCAPRO model among women with bilateral breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The likelihood of identifying a BRCA mutation was often calculated using the BRCAPRO model. A previous study suggested that this model may overestimate the chance of detecting a BRCA mutation among women diagnosed with bilateral breast cancer. Studies also suggested that few patients with bilateral breast cancer whose age at first diagnosis is >40 years were mutation carriers. The objectives of this study were to determine the accuracy of the BRCAPRO model among women with bilateral breast cancer and to determine whether their mutation status was dependent on their age at first diagnosis. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed. Women who were diagnosed with bilateral or unilateral breast cancer and who had undergone comprehensive BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic testing at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center between 1997 and 2006 were included in the study. RESULTS: For individuals with pre-test carrier probabilities >31%, the proportion of positive tests was significantly lower than predicted by the BRCAPRO model (P < .05). In addition, the carrier rate of BRCA mutations was significantly higher (P = .002, Fisher exact test) in women with bilateral breast cancer whose age at first diagnosis was 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: The BRCAPRO model was overestimating the relative contribution bilateral breast cancer had on the likelihood of detecting a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. Bilateral breast cancer did not appear to be a good indicator of mutation status, particularly for women whose age at first diagnosis is >40 years.

High prevalence of preinvasive lesions adjacent to BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers.

Mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 increase a woman's lifetime risk of developing breast cancer by 43% to 84%. It was originally postulated that BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers develop more rapidly than sporadic cancers and may lack preinvasive lesions. More recent studies have found preinvasive lesions in prophylactic mastectomy specimens from mutation carriers; however, there is little information on the presence of preinvasive lesions in tissue adjacent to breast cancers. Our aim is to investigate the role of preinvasive lesions in BRCA-associated breast carcinogenesis. We retrospectively compared BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers and sporadic breast cancers for the prevalence of preinvasive lesions [ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), lobular carcinoma in situ, and atypical lobular hyperplasia] in tissue adjacent to invasive breast cancers. Pathology was reviewed for 73 BRCA1/2-associated tumors from patients with breast cancer. We selected 146 patients with mutation-negative breast cancer as age-matched controls. Among the BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers, 59% had at least one associated preinvasive lesion compared with 75% of controls. Preinvasive lesions were more prevalent in BRCA2 mutation carriers than in BRCA1 mutation carriers (70% versus 52%, respectively). The most common preinvasive lesion in both groups was DCIS; 56% of BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers and 71% of the sporadic breast cancers had adjacent intraductal disease, respectively. Preinvasive lesions, most notably DCIS, are common in BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers. These findings suggest that BRCA1/2-associated breast cancers progress through the same intermediate steps as sporadic breast cancers, and that DCIS should be considered as a part of the BRCA1/2 tumor spectrum.

Residual risk of breast cancer recurrence 5 years after adjuvant therapy.

There is limited prognostic information to identify breast cancer patients who are at risk for late recurrences after adjuvant or neoadjuvant systemic therapy (AST). We evaluated the residual risk of recurrence and prognostic factors of 2838 patients with stage I-III breast cancer who were treated with AST between January 1, 1985, and November 1, 2001, and remained disease free for 5 years. Residual recurrence-free survival was estimated from the landmark of 5 years after AST to date of first recurrence or last follow-up using the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test (two-sided) was used to compare groups. Residual recurrence-free survival rates at 5 and 10 years were 89% and 80%, respectively, and 216 patients developed a recurrence event. The 5-year residual risks of recurrence for patients with stage I, II, and III cancers were 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3% to 15%), 11% (95% CI = 9% to 13%), and 13% (95% CI = 10% to 17%), respectively (P = .02). In multivariable analysis, stage, grade, hormone receptor status, and endocrine therapy were associated with late recurrences. Breast cancer patients have a substantial residual risk of recurrence, and selected tumor characteristics are associated with late recurrences.

Factors predicting additional disease in the axilla in patients with positive sentinel lymph nodes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The utility of sentinel lymph node (SNL) biopsy (SLNB) as a predictor of axillary lymph node status is similar in patients who receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy and patients who undergo surgery first. The authors of this study hypothesized that patients with positive SLNs after neoadjuvant therapy would have unique clinicopathologic factors that would be predictive of additional positive non-SLNs distinct from patients who underwent surgery first. METHODS: One hundred four patients were identified who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, had a positive SLN, and underwent axillary dissection between 1997 and 2005. At the time of presentation, 66 patients had clinically negative lymph nodes by ultrasonography, and 38 patients had positive lymph nodes confirmed by fine-needle aspiration. Eighteen factors were assessed for their ability to predict positive non-SLNs using chi-square and logistic regression analysis with a bootstrapped, backwards elimination procedure. The resulting nomogram was tested by using a patient cohort from another institution. RESULTS: Patients with clinically negative lymph nodes at presentation were less likely than patients with positive lymph nodes to have positive non-SLNs (47% vs 71%; P=.017). On multivariate analysis, lymphovascular invasion, the method for detecting SLN metastasis, multicentricity, positive axillary lymph nodes at presentation, and pathologic tumor size retained grouped significance with a bootstrap-adjusted area under the curve (AUC) of 0.762. The resulting nomogram was validated in the external patient cohort (AUC, 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of patients with positive SLNs after neoadjuvant chemotherapy had no positive non-SLNs. The use of a nomogram based on 5 predictive variables that were identified in this study may be useful for predicting the risk of positive non-SLNs in patients who have positive SLNs after chemotherapy.

Phase 3 study comparing the use of docetaxel on an every-3-week versus weekly schedule in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have evaluated 3-week and weekly docetaxel schedules in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The varying efficacy results and toxicity profiles noted in these earlier studies led to a comparison of the schedules to determine which was safer and more efficacious. METHODS: A phase 3 clinical trial was conducted in patients with MBC who were treated with docetaxel either every 3 weeks or once weekly to determine and compare response rate and duration, time to disease progression, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and toxicity. Patients were randomized to receive docetaxel at a starting dose of either 75 mg/m(2) every 3 weeks or 35 mg/m(2) weekly for 3 consecutive weeks followed by 1 week of rest. RESULTS: A total of 118 patients underwent efficacy analysis; 59 patients were randomized to the every-3-week treatment arm and 59 to the weekly arm. The response rate was 35.6% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 23.6-49.1%) for the every-3-week arm versus 20.3% (95% CI, 11.0-32.8%) for the weekly arm. There was no statistical difference between the every 3-week and the weekly treatment arms with regard to median PFS (5.7 months vs 5.5 months; P= .46) or OS (18.3 months vs 18.6 months, respectively; P= .34). There was a higher overall toxicity rate (grades 3 and 4, according to the National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria [version 2.0]) in the every-3-week treatment arm versus the weekly treatment arm (88.1% vs 55.9%, respectively; P= .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with patients who received weekly docetaxel, those who received docetaxel every 3 weeks had a higher response rate but experienced similar PFS and OS and a more pronounced toxicity.

Overall survival and cause-specific mortality of patients with stage T1a,bN0M0 breast carcinoma.

PURPOSE: With mammographic screening, the frequency of diagnosis of stage T1a,bN0M0 breast cancer has increased. Prognosis after locoregional therapy and benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy are poorly defined. We reviewed T1a,bN0M0 breast cancer cases registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program to investigate the impact of prognostic factors on breast cancer-specific (BCSM) and non-breast cancer-related mortality. METHODS: We identified T1a,bN0M0 breast cancer cases registered in the SEER Program from 1988 to 2001, and used the Kaplan-Meier product limit method to describe overall survival (OS). We estimated the probabilities of death resulting from breast cancer and from other causes, and analyzed associations of patient and tumor characteristics with OS, BCSM, and non-breast cancer-related mortality using the log-rank test, Cox proportional hazards models, and a competing-risk model. We constructed nomograms to assist physicians in adjuvant therapy decision making. RESULTS: We identified 51,246 T1a,bN0M0 cases. Median follow-up was 64 months (range, 1 to 167 months). Median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 20 to 101 years). Ten-year probabilities of all-cause mortality and BCSM were 24% and 4%, respectively. Characteristics associated with increased probability of BCSM included age younger than 50 years at diagnosis, high tumor grade, estrogen receptor-negative status, progesterone receptor-negative status, and fewer than six nodes removed at axillary dissection. The constructed nomograms allow a comparison of predicted breast cancer-specific survival and non-breast cancer-specific survival in individual patients. CONCLUSION: Overall, the prognosis of patients with T1a,bN0M0 breast cancer is excellent. However, subgroups of patients who are at higher risk of BCSM and who should be considered for adjuvant systemic therapy can be identified.

BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic testing in Hispanic patients: mutation prevalence and evaluation of the BRCAPRO risk assessment model.

PURPOSE: The BRCAPRO model, used to predict a family's likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation, was designed using mutation frequencies of white and Ashkenazi Jewish populations, and may not be applicable to other populations. BRCAPRO was recently validated in African Americans, although has yet to be examined in Hispanics. This retrospective study reports the mutation frequency and spectrum of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in a Hispanic population and evaluates the BRCAPRO model in Hispanics. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A descriptive analysis of mutation frequency and spectrum was performed for Hispanic patients who underwent BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic testing at a single institution. For comparative analysis of the BRCAPRO risk model, Hispanic patients who underwent comprehensive analysis were compared with white controls using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). RESULTS: Fourteen Hispanic individuals who underwent comprehensive analysis were identified to carry a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (17.9%; 95% CI, 10.2% to 28.3%) and seven individuals had a variant of uncertain significance (9.0%; 95% CI, 12.0% to 30.8%). A total of eight different mutations and three variants were observed within the entire Hispanic population. When evaluating the performance of the BRCAPRO model, the AUROC for Hispanics was 0.774 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.90), compared with the AUROC of 0.770 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.89) for whites. CONCLUSION: Deleterious BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations occur at considerable frequency within the Hispanic population, many of which have been identified previously in other ethnic populations. The BRCAPRO model appears to perform equally well in Hispanics as in whites.

Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) and patterns of recurrence: understanding the biology of a unique disease.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is the most aggressive manifestation of primary breast cancer. The authors compared the prognostic features of IBC and non-IBC locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) to gain insight into the biology of this disease entity. METHODS: This retrospective analysis consisted of 1071 patients, comprising 240 patients with IBC and 831 patients with non-IBC LABC who were enrolled in 10 consecutive clinical trials (5 from each disease group). All patients received similar multidisciplinary treatment. The authors measured time to disease recurrence for each individual site from the start of treatment to the date of disease recurrence or last follow-up (recurrence-free survival) and overall survival rates to the date of last follow-up or death. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 69 months (range, 1-367 months). Pathologically complete response rates were 13.9% and 11.7% in the IBC and non-IBC LABC groups, respectively (P = .42). The 5-year estimates of cumulative incidence of recurrence were 64.8 % and 43.4% (P < .0001), respectively, for IBC and non-IBC LABC. IBC had significantly higher cumulative incidence of locoregional recurrence and distant soft-tissue and bone disease. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 40.5% for the IBC group (95% CI, 34.5%-47.4%) and 63.2% for the non-IBC LABC group (95% CI, 60.0%-66.6%; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: IBC was associated with a worse prognosis and a distinctive pattern of early recurrence compared with LABC. These data suggested that investigating factors affecting "homing" of cancer cells may provide novel treatment strategies for IBC.