Comparison of different risk stratification systems for prediction of acute pancreatitis severity in patients referred to the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic prediction and estimation of severity at early stages of acute pancreatitis (AP) are crucial to reduce the complication rates and mortality. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the predicting ability of different clinical and radiological scores in AP. METHODS: We retrospectively collected demographic and clinical data from 159 patients diagnosed with AP admitted to Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019. Bedside index for severity AP (BISAP), and acute phys-iology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score at admission, Ranson and modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) score at 48 h after admission were calculated. Modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI) was also calculated for each patient. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for each scoring system for predicting severe AP, pancreatic necrosis, length of hospital stay, and mortality by determining optimal cutoff points from the (ROC) curves. RESULTS: mGPS and APACHE II had the highest AUC (0.929 and 0.823, respectively) to predict severe AP on admission with the best specificity and sensitivity. In predicting mortality BISAP (with a sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) of 75.0%, 70.9%, 98.2%, and 12.0%, respectively, [AUC: 0.793]) and APACHE II (with a sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV of 87.5%, 86.1%, 99.2%, and 25.0%, respectively, [AUC: 0.840]). CONCLUSION: mGPS can be a valuable tool in predicting the patients more likely to develop severe AP and maybe somewhat better than BISAP score, APACHE II Ranson score, and mCTSI.

Diagnostic utility of hematological indices in predicting adverse outcomes and severity of acute pancreatitis based on BISAP and modified Glasgow score.

BACKGROUND: The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte-ratio (PLR), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) are simple indicators of inflammatory status previously established as a severity indicator in distinct disease states. This study aimed to determine the impact of these simple hematologic indices with conventional inflammation markers such as C-reactive pro-tein (CRP) and white blood cells in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients and their relationship with AP risk stratification scores including Bedside Index for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and modified Glaskow Prognostic score (mGPS) scores. METHODS: This retrospective study was performed in the emergency department of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University. A total of 171 patients (male/female: 68 [39.8%]/103 [60.3%]) with AP and 59 age and gender matched healthy subjects (male/female: 23 [39%]/36[61%]) as controls were enrolled in the present study. The patients were grouped according to severity and adverse outcomes according to BISAP and mGPS and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR, PLR, and RDW between groups. RESULTS: The mean NLR values of AP patients and control group were 9.62±6.34 and 2.04±1.08, respectively (p<0.001), while the mean PLR values of AP patients and control group were 221.83±122.43 and 83.30±38.89, respectively (p<0.001). Except from RDW, all the other hematologic indices were found to be elevated (p<0.05 for WBC; NLR, PLR, and CRP) on both mild and severe disease at disease onset. NLR and PLR showed significant predictive ability for estimating serious complications associated with AP. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that NLR and PLR is increased in AP. Moreover, peripheral blood NLR and PLR values can predict disease severity and adverse outcomes associated with AP and can be used as an adjunctive marker for estimating disease severity.

Prediction of adverse outcomes using non-endoscopic scoring systems in patients over 80 years of age who present with the upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: The emergency department (ED) admission rate for elderly patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is increasing. The AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are two distinct scoring systems proposed to predict in-hospital and post-discharge mortality, length of stay (LOS), and health-related costs in these patients. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the accuracy of these scoring systems, in conjunction with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), to predict 30-day mortality and LOS in UGIB patients who are 80 years of age or older METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 182 patients with non-variceal UGIB who were admitted to the ED of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Hospital. The AIMS65, GBS, and CCI scores were calculated and adverse patient outcomes were assessed. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 85.59±4.33 years, and 90 (49.5%) of the patients were males. The AIMS65 was superior to the GBS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.877 vs. 0.695, respectively) and CCI (AUROC 0.877 vs. 0.526, respectively) in predicting the 30-day mortality. All three scores performed poorly in predicting the LOS in hospital. The cutoff threshold that maximized sensitivity and specificity for mortality was three for the AIMS65 score (sensitivity, 0.87; specificity, 0.80; negative predictive values [NPV], 0.977; positive predictive values [PPV], 0.392), 14 for GBS (sensitivity, 0.83; specificity, 0.51; NPV, 0.923; PPV, 0.367), and 5 for CCI (sensitivity, 0.91; specificity, 0.22; NPV, 0.946; PPV, 0.145). CONCLUSION: The AIMS65 is a simple, accurate, and non-endoscopic scoring system that can be performed easily in ED settings. It is superior to GBS and CCI in predicting 30-day mortality in elderly patients with UGIB.

Evaluation of the factors predicting the need for intensive care of patients with COVID-19 aged above 65 years: data from an emergency department in Turkey

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: Individuals aged ≥65 years are more susceptible to COVID-19 disease and admission to intensive care is most notable. The scoring systems (national early warning score, quick sequential organ failure assessment, shock index) are recommended for rapid assessment of patients in emergency room conditions. The goal of our study is to evaluate scoring systems in conjunction with predictive factors of need for admission to intensive care of patients ≥65 years old with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who applied to the emergency room. METHODS: Patients were divided into two groups according to evolution in the emergency room, being those who needed or not intensive care. National Early Warning Score, quick sequential organ failure assessment, shock index scores and serum biochemistry, blood count and blood gas values were evaluated from hospital information management system records. RESULTS: Of the patients included in the study, 80.8% were admitted to the ward and 14.5% to the unit of intensive care. Lymphocyte count, base deficit and bicarbonate levels were lower, and the levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, D-dimer, urea and lactate dehydrogenase were higher in patients who needed intensive care. Quick sequential organ failure assessment and shock index were considered significant in the group admitted to the intensive care unit. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that quick sequential organ failure assessment and shock index be used quickly, practically and easily in predicting the need for intensive care unit in patients aged ≥65 years in emergency department diagnosed with COVID-19.

Implementation of the Ottawa ankle rules by general practitioners in the emergency department of a Turkish district hospital.

BACKGROUND: The present objective was to assess implementation of the Ottawa ankle rules (OAR) as a method of fracture prediction in the emergency department (ED) of a Turkish state hospital. METHODS: Patients who presented to the ED of our hospital with acute ankle injury were evaluated. All were examined by a general practitioner, after which a series of ankle and foot x-rays (anteroposterior and lateral) were performed. Radiography was examined by a radiologist and an orthopedic surgeon, both of whom were blinded to OAR results. Radiographic results were compared to results of OAR implementation. Sensitivity and specificity of the OAR in the diagnosis of fracture was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 251 (61.97%) patients were diagnosed as positive (+) for fracture after OAR implementation, 154 (38.02%) as negative (-). Clinically significant fracture was detected in 62 (15.3%) patients. A total of 61 (98.4%) patients with significant fracture were OAR (+); 1 (1.6%) was OAR (-). However, 190 (55.4%) patients without fracture were OAR (+); 153 (44.6%) were OAR (-) (p<0.001). Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of OAR implementation in the prediction of fracture were 98.39%, 44.61%, 24.30%, and 99.35%, respectively. Area under the curve (AUC) was 0.71. According to these results, it was determined that use of radiography could be reduced by 38.02% if the OAR were implemented. CONCLUSION: The OAR are a highly sensitive means of screening of patients with acute ankle and mid-foot injuries. Application of the OAR by well-trained general practitioners can lead to significant reduction in the number of x-rays performed, thereby reducing cost of treatment and radiation exposure, in addition to saving time for patients and staff.

The association between weather conditions and stroke admissions in Turkey.

Although several factors such as cigarette smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, physical inactivity and dietary factors have been well documented to increase the risk for stroke, there are conflicting data about the role of meteorological variables in the etiology of stroke. We conducted a retrospective study to investigate the association between weather patterns, including daily temperature, humidity, wind speed, and air pressure, and stroke admissions to the Emergency Department of Atatürk Training and Research Hospital in Ankara, Turkey, between January 2009 and April 2010. Generalized additive models with logistic link function were used to investigate the relationship between predictors and days with and without stroke admission at lags 0-4. A total of 373 stroke patients were admitted to the emergency department (ED) between January 2009 and April 2010. Of patients, 297 had ischemic stroke (IS), 34 hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and 42 subarachnoidal hemorrhage (SAH). Although we did not find any association between overall admissions due to stroke and meteorological parameters, univariable analysis indicated that there were significantly more SAH cases on days with lower daily mean temperatures of 8.79 ± 8.75 °C as compared to relatively mild days with higher temperatures (mean temperature = 11.89 ± 7.94 °C, p = 0.021). The multivariable analysis demonstrated that admissions due to SAH increased on days with lower daily mean temperatures for the same day (lag 0; odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (95% CI)] = 0.93 [0.89-0.98], p = 0.004) and lag 1 (OR [95% CI] =0.76 [0.67-0.86], p = 0.001). Furthermore, the wind speed at both lag 1 (OR [95% CI] = 1.63 [1.27-2.09], p = 0.001) and lag 3 (OR [95% CI] = 1.43 [1.12-1.81], p = 0.004) increased admissions due to HS, respectively. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that there was an association between ED admissions due to SAH and HS and weather conditions suggesting that meteorological variables may, at least in part, play as risk factors for intracranial hemorrhages.

The role of urine trypsinogen-2 test in the differential diagnosis of acute pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to investigate the role and importance of the urine trypsinogen-2 dipstick test in the differential diagnosis of acute pancreatitis in the Emergency Department and to compare results with those of conventional tests. METHODS: The study was performed prospectively in the patients admitting to the Emergency Department due to upper abdominal pain. Thirty-two of the 87 patients included in the study had acute pancreatitis diagnosis. Serum amylase, lipase, C-reactive protein (CRP) and urine trypsinogen-2 using Actim pancreatitis dipstick were studied in all patients. The statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 11.5 package program. RESULTS: Urine trypsinogen-2 was found positive in 21 (65.6%) of 32 patients. The sensitivity of the test for pancreatitis was identified as 64%, specificity as 85%, positive predictive value as 72%, and negative predictive value as 81%. These values were statistically significant compared to the control group (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Although it has lower sensitivity and specificity compared to amylase and lipase, we suggest that urine trypsinogen-2 test may be an important diagnostic tool in excluding the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis, since it provides results within 5 minutes in the Emergency Department, is cheaper, has a higher negative predictive value, and is easy to use.