Development and validation of a prognostic model using blood biomarker information for prediction of survival of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with combined chemotherapy and radiation or radiotherapy alone (NCT00181519, NCT00573040, and NCT00572325).

PURPOSE: Currently, prediction of survival for non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with (chemo)radiotherapy is mainly based on clinical factors. The hypothesis of this prospective study was that blood biomarkers related to hypoxia, inflammation, and tumor load would have an added prognostic value for predicting survival. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Clinical data and blood samples were collected prospectively (NCT00181519, NCT00573040, and NCT00572325) from 106 inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer patients (Stages I-IIIB), treated with curative intent with radiotherapy alone or combined with chemotherapy. Blood biomarkers, including lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, osteopontin, carbonic anhydrase IX, interleukin (IL) 6, IL-8, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and cytokeratin fragment 21-1, were measured. A multivariate model, built on a large patient population (N = 322) and externally validated, was used as a baseline model. An extended model was created by selecting additional biomarkers. The model's performance was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed by use of leave-one-out cross validation as well as a validation cohort (n = 52). RESULTS: The baseline model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume and yielded an AUC of 0.72. The extended model included two additional blood biomarkers (CEA and IL-6) and resulted in a leave-one-out AUC of 0.81. The performance of the extended model was significantly better than the clinical model (p = 0.004). The AUC on the validation cohort was 0.66 and 0.76, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the prognostic model for survival improved markedly by adding two blood biomarkers: CEA and IL-6.

Development, external validation and clinical usefulness of a practical prediction model for radiation-induced dysphagia in lung cancer patients.

INTRODUCTION: Acute dysphagia is a distressing dose-limiting toxicity occurring frequently during concurrent chemo-radiation or high-dose radiotherapy for lung cancer. It can lead to treatment interruptions and thus jeopardize survival. Although a number of predictive factors have been identified, it is still not clear how these could offer assistance for treatment decision making in daily clinical practice. Therefore, we have developed and validated a nomogram to predict this side-effect. In addition, clinical usefulness was assessed by comparing model predictions to physicians' predictions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical data from 469 inoperable lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent, were collected prospectively. A prediction model for acute radiation-induced dysphagia was developed. Model performance was evaluated by the c-statistic and assessed using bootstrapping as well as two external datasets. In addition, a prospective study was conducted comparing model to physicians' predictions in 138 patients. RESULTS: The final multivariate model consisted of age, gender, WHO performance status, mean esophageal dose (MED), maximum esophageal dose (MAXED) and overall treatment time (OTT). The c-statistic, assessed by bootstrapping, was 0.77. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.94 on the Ghent data and 0.77 on the Washington University St. Louis data for dysphagia ≥ grade 3. Comparing model predictions to the physicians' predictions resulted in an AUC of 0.75 versus 0.53, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model performed well was successfully validated and demonstrated the ability to predict acute severe dysphagia remarkably better than the physicians. Therefore, this model could be used in clinical practice to identify patients at high or low risk.

Selective nodal irradiation on basis of (18)FDG-PET scans in limited-disease small-cell lung cancer: a prospective study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the results of selective nodal irradiation on basis of (18)F-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) scans in patients with limited-disease small-cell lung cancer (LD-SCLC) on isolated nodal failure. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A prospective study was performed of 60 patients with LD-SCLC. Radiotherapy was given to a dose of 45 Gy in twice-daily fractions of 1.5 Gy, concurrent with carboplatin and etoposide chemotherapy. Only the primary tumor and the mediastinal lymph nodes involved on the pretreatment PET scan were irradiated. A chest computed tomography (CT) scan was performed 3 months after radiotherapy completion and every 6 months thereafter. RESULTS: A difference was seen in the involved nodal stations between the pretreatment (18)F-deoxyglucose PET scans and computed tomography scans in 30% of patients (95% confidence interval, 20-43%). Of the 60 patients, 39 (65%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 52-76%) developed a recurrence; 2 patients (3%, 95% CI, 1-11%) experienced isolated regional failure. The median actuarial overall survival was 19 months (95% CI, 17-21). The median actuarial progression-free survival was 14 months (95% CI, 12-16). 12% (95% CI, 6-22%) of patients experienced acute Grade 3 (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0) esophagitis. CONCLUSION: PET-based selective nodal irradiation for LD-SCLC resulted in a low rate of isolated nodal failures (3%), with a low percentage of acute esophagitis. These findings are in contrast to those from our prospective study of CT-based selective nodal irradiation, which resulted in an unexpectedly high percentage of isolated nodal failures (11%). Because of the low rate of isolated nodal failures and toxicity, we believe that our data support the use of PET-based SNI for LD-SCLC.

The importance of patient characteristics for the prediction of radiation-induced lung toxicity.

PURPOSE: Extensive research has led to the identification of numerous dosimetric parameters as well as patient characteristics, associated with lung toxicity, but their clinical usefulness remains largely unknown. We investigated the predictive value of patient characteristics in combination with established dosimetric parameters. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 438 lung cancer patients treated with (chemo)radiation were used. Lung toxicity was scored using the Common Toxicity Criteria version 3.0. A multivariate model as well as two single parameter models, including either V(20) or MLD, was built. Performance of the models was expressed as the AUC (Area Under the Curve). RESULTS: The mean MLD was 13.5 Gy (SD 4.5 Gy), while the mean V(20) was 21.0% (SD 7.3%). Univariate models with V(20) or MLD both yielded an AUC of 0.47. The final multivariate model, which included WHO-performance status, smoking status, forced expiratory volume (FEV(1)), age and MLD, yielded an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI: 0.55-0.69). CONCLUSIONS: Within the range of radiation doses used in our clinic, dosimetric parameters play a less important role than patient characteristics for the prediction of lung toxicity. Future research should focus more on patient-related factors, as opposed to dosimetric parameters, in order to identify patients at high risk for developing radiation-induced lung toxicity more accurately.

Development and external validation of prognostic model for 2-year survival of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.

PURPOSE: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. RESULTS: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. CONCLUSION: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process.

EORTC 22972-26991/MRC BR10 trial: fractionated stereotactic boost following conventional radiotherapy of high grade gliomas. Clinical and quality-assurance results of the stereotactic boost arm.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The EORTC trial No. 22972 investigated the role of an additional fractionated stereotactic boost (fSRT) to conventional radiotherapy for patients with high grade gliomas. A quality-assurance (QA) programme was run in conjunction with the study and was the first within the EORTC addressing the quality of a supposedly highly accurate treatment technique such as stereotactic radiotherapy. A second aim was to investigate a possible relation between the clinical results of the stereotactic boost arm and the results of the QA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The trial was closed in 2001 due to low accrual. In total, 25 patients were randomized: 14 into the experimental arm and 11 into the control arm. Six centres randomized patients, 8 centres had completed the dummy run (DR) for the stereotactic boost part. All participating centres (9) were asked to complete a quality-assurance questionnaire. The DR consisted of treatment planning according to the guidelines of the protocol on 3 different tumour volumes drawn on CT images of a humanized phantom. The SRT technique to be used was evaluated by the questionnaire. Clinical data from patients recruited to the boost arm from 6 participating centres were analysed. RESULTS: There was a full compliance to the protocol requirements for 5 centres. Major and minor deviations in conformality were observed for 2 and 3 centres, respectively. Of the 8 centres which completed the DR, one centre did not comply with the requirements of stereotactic radiotherapy concerning accuracy, dosimetry and planning. Median follow-up and median overall survival were 39.2 and 21.4 months, respectively. Acute and late toxicities of the stereotactic boost were low. One radiation necrosis was seen for a patient who has not received the SRT boost. Three reported serious adverse events were all seizures and probably therapy-related. CONCLUSIONS: Overall compliance was good but not ideal from the point of view of this highly precise radiation technique. Survival in the subgroup of patients with small volume disease was encouraging, but the study does not provide sufficient information about the potential value of fSRT boost in patients with malignant glioma.Toxicity due to an additional stereotactic boost of 20 Gy in 4 fractions was low and may be considered as a safe treatment option for patients with small tumours.

Tumor volume combined with number of positive lymph node stations is a more important prognostic factor than TNM stage for survival of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with (chemo)radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: The current tumor, node, metastasis system needs refinement to improve its ability to predict survival of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with (chemo)radiation. In this study, we investigated the prognostic value of tumor volume and N status, assessed by using fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (PET). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical data from 270 consecutive patients with inoperable NSCLC Stages I-IIIB treated radically with (chemo)radiation were collected retrospectively. Diagnostic imaging was performed using either integrated PET-computed tomography or computed tomography and PET separately. The Kaplan-Meier method, as well as Cox regression, was used to analyze data. RESULTS: Univariate survival analysis showed that number of positive lymph node stations (PLNSs), as well as N stage on PET, was associated significantly with survival. The final multivariate Cox model consisted of number of PLNSs, gross tumor volume (i.e., volume of the primary tumor plus lymph nodes), sex, World Health Organization performance status, and equivalent radiation dose corrected for time; N stage was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Number of PLNSs, assessed by means of fluorodeoxyglucose-PET, was a significant factor for survival of patients with inoperable NSCLC treated with (chemo)radiation. Risk stratification for this group of patients should be based on gross tumor volume, number of PLNSs, sex, World Health Organization performance status, and equivalent radiation dose corrected for time.

The maximum uptake of (18)F-deoxyglucose on positron emission tomography scan correlates with survival, hypoxia inducible factor-1alpha and GLUT-1 in non-small cell lung cancer.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relation between the standardised uptake value (SUV) on (18)F-fluoro-2-deoxy-glucose-positron emission tomography scan and hypoxia related markers (HIF-1alpha and CAIX), a proliferation-related marker (Ki-67) and glucose transporters (GLUT-1 and GLUT-3) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). One hundred and two patients, scheduled for complete resection, received a PET scan in Leuven or Maastricht/Aachen. The maximal SUV (SUV(max)) was correlated with survival and immunohistochemical staining patterns. The actuarial survival was worse for patients showing a high SUV(max), the best discriminative value being 8.0 (Leuven, p=0.032) and 11.0 (Maastricht, p=0.007). Tumours with a high SUV(max) expressed in a higher proportion HIF-1alpha (63.1% versus 37.9%, p=0.024) and GLUT-1 (82.9% versus 62.5%, p=0.025), than tumours with a low SUV(max). No significant difference was found in the expression of CAIX, Ki-67 and GLUT-3. This study supports preclinical data that hypoxia is associated with a higher uptake of FDG.

PET-CT-based auto-contouring in non-small-cell lung cancer correlates with pathology and reduces interobserver variability in the delineation of the primary tumor and involved nodal volumes.

PURPOSE: To compare source-to-background ratio (SBR)-based PET-CT auto-delineation with pathology in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to investigate whether auto-delineation reduces the interobserver variability compared with manual PET-CT-based gross tumor volume (GTV) delineation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Source-to-background ratio-based auto-delineation was compared with macroscopic tumor dimensions to assess its validity in 23 tumors. Thereafter, GTVs were delineated manually on 33 PET-CT scans by five observers for the primary tumor (GTV-1) and the involved lymph nodes (GTV-2). The delineation was repeated after 6 months with the auto-contour provided. This contour was edited by the observers. For comparison, the concordance index (CI) was calculated, defined as the ratio of intersection and the union of two volumes (A intersection B)/(A union or logical sum B). RESULTS: The maximal tumor diameter of the SBR-based auto-contour correlated strongly with the macroscopic diameter of primary tumors (correlation coefficient = 0.90) and was shown to be accurate for involved lymph nodes (sensitivity 67%, specificity 95%). The median auto-contour-based target volumes were smaller than those defined by manual delineation for GTV-1 (31.8 and 34.6 cm(3), respectively; p = 0.001) and GTV-2 (16.3 and 21.8 cm(3), respectively; p = 0.02). The auto-contour-based method showed higher CIs than the manual method for GTV-1 (0.74 and 0.70 cm(3), respectively; p < 0.001) and GTV-2 (0.60 and 0.51 cm(3), respectively; p = 0.11). CONCLUSION: Source-to-background ratio-based auto-delineation showed a good correlation with pathology, decreased the delineated volumes of the GTVs, and reduced the interobserver variability. Auto-contouring may further improve the quality of target delineation in NSCLC patients.

Predictive value of lymph node metastases and extracapsular extension for the risk of distant metastases in laryngeal carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this retrospective chart analysis was to determine the prognostic value of the lymph node status and extracapsular lymph node extension (ECE) of the neck for the development of distant metastases in squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx. METHODS: One hundred sixty-five patients treated for laryngeal carcinoma with a neck dissection with histologic evaluation were included. Primary study end point was distant metastasis-free survival. Univariate analysis with the Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate distant metastasis-free survival and overall survival for the whole group and for groups according to ECE/lymph node status. Patients were classified as 1) no metastatic lymph nodes, 2) metastatic lymph nodes without ECE, or 3) metastatic lymph nodes with ECE. Univariate Cox regression was performed with outcome distant metastasis-free survival. RESULTS: The median overall survival for the whole group was 5.1 years and the 5-year survival rate was 51%. The median distant metastasis-free survival for the whole group could not be calculated and the 5-year metastasis-free survival rate was 78%. The hazard ratio was 3.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-12.1) for patients with positive nodes and without ECE and 10.5 (95% CI = 3.6-30.8) for the patients with metastatic nodes and with ECE compared with the patients without metastatic lymph nodes. CONCLUSION: The presence of ECE in metastatic lymph nodes augments the risk of distant metastasis by nine times in laryngeal carcinoma. Metastatic lymph nodes without ECE show a risk three times greater.

A pathology-based substrate for target definition in radiosurgery of brain metastases.

PURPOSE: To investigate the need of a margin other than for accuracy reasons in stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) of brain metastases by means of histopathology. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Evaluation of 45 patients from two pathology departments having had brain metastases and an autopsy of the brain. Growth patterns were reviewed with a focus on infiltration beyond the metastases boundary and made visible with immunohistochemical staining: the metastasis itself with tumor-specific markers, surrounding normal brain tissue with a glial marker, and a possible capsule with a soft tissue marker. Measurements were corrected by a tissue-shrinkage correction factor taken from literature. Outcomes parameters for infiltration were mean and maximum depths of infiltration and number of measured infiltration sites. RESULTS: In 48 of 76 metastases, an infiltration was present. The largest group of metastases was lung cancer. Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) and melanoma showed a maximum depth of infiltration of > or =1 mm, and other histologies <1 mm. For non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), melanoma, and sarcoma, the highest number of infiltrative sites were observed (median, 2; range, 1-8). SCLC showed significantly larger infiltrative growth, compared with other diagnostic groups. In NSCLC, the highest percentage of infiltration was present (70%). CONCLUSIONS: Infiltrative growth beyond the border of the brain metastasis was demonstrated in 63% of the cases evaluated. Infiltrative growth, therefore, has an impact in defining the clinical target volume for SRS of brain metastases, and a margin of approximately 1 mm should be added to the visible lesion.